so my question is anyone on atl?

[willy23]

i see ace finally got back on a winning week. big lou finally made a pick in a while and won in a big fashion. both are on philly this week. of course now every post i read is on philly. i dont have numbers like ACE or i dont know the history like BIG LOU, but i know i thing, VEGAS does not lose that much.

last three years philly in conference title game:
car 14 at phi 3
tb 27 at phi 10
phi 24 at stl 29

i dont know much about ACE, the exbookie. i know i would rather take the bets rather than bet them. plus, i never seen a guy bet so many games every week.

BIG LOU, ive known for awhile. been watching your posts for years. i respect your picks. i also know your a philly fan. its hard to judge your opinion on philly because your heart might get in the way.

im not trying to belittle you two. i only mentioned you two because i do respect your picks. you guys make it easier for guys that dont have any business gambling. you guys are reasons why these forums work.

to be honest, i usually play against the public in playoff games. the public is rarely right and the fact is more bets are being played because every week there are less games to play. with you two on philly its hard to play this game.

back to my main point, is there anyone on Atl?

 

[RSN]

Atlanta wins out....

I don't see how any team can stop him or their running game in the playoffs.

 

[MightyMoe]

Maybe They Should Be

Willy, I thought you might want to know that there are trends that favor them, but trends aren't always right. Since 1999 the road team has won 5 of 10 conference title games straight up. Since 2000, the dog is 6-2 ATS. Interesting numbers that I thought you might want to know. Good luck this weekend!

 

[Waterproof]

Wasn't Big Lou's play on Philly last week's play? Check it out

 

[ElIguana]

Waterproof, the only play I recall seeing from Big Lou last week was Atlanta, but that's going from memory.

 

[Publius]

The only appearance I've seen from Big Lou about this upcoming game was when he mentioned the trend that no team who lost a home championship game the previous year has won the championship game the following year. I think that is what he said. I can't remember.

I think the Eagles defense is the difference maker. At first glance you would think the weather being horrible would favor the Eagles (with the Falcons being a dome team and all), but weather tends to be an equalizer. Since all the Falcons do is run the ball anyway and all the Eagles want to do is throw the ball the weather may actually play to the Falcons advantage. I still think Eagles -4.5 is the bet, I'm just thinking out loud, hahahahaha.

 

[Waterproof]

Did a quick search & found http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=253991

It's a play on last week's game...

Is it five o'clock yet? :drink:

 

[ElIguana]

Willy23, you bring up a great point. EVERYONE seems to be on Philly. The line is up to 5 now. They seem like the clear-cut favorite to me, and I think they will win this game at home.

As far as the 5 points goes, 12 of Philly's 14 wins were by 5+ points, and all 3 of Atlanta's meaningful losses (excluding games vs. NO & Seattle when they rested players) were by 5+ points, so as usual one should just pick the winner and not sweat the points.

Atlanta is a "sexy" public team--maybe as the week wears on, we'll see more juice going their way. But I agree with your assessment that it seems like everyone is on Philly right now, and that concerns me. Maybe we are outsmarting ourselves and overanalyzing......will just keep watching the action and see what happens w/ lines & betting public opinion. GL

 

[CashPlays]

If atlanta had beaten a better team then the loser rams then I would probably be favoring the falcons. But since most of the year both philly and atlanta have played loser teams for their overblown records they both seem to be equal in this case. you ask were the vikings a loser team? Yes defensely they suck and bad coaching kept their offense from scoring. Philly does have a better edge in offense and defense by rankings over the coarse of the year compared to atlanta. Philly had 2 extra weeks to rest players that took in those stats. That brings me to M Vick on the grass in the snow and cold???? He cant throw all that well (accuracy) so look for bad passes (interceptions?) and you know phily will be pressing Vick out of the pocket where he will become atlantas main weapon. Phily most likely will stack the box and use a spy on vick in case he tries to run. On the other side of the ball philly may try to control the ball and the clock keeping Vick off the field. Atlantas defense against the rush stats are not that great. looking for

philly 24
atl 10
this is purely my take
remember cash always plays

 

[hardcorecap]

I havent decided on this game yet. I keep going back and forth. My inscinct keeps saying that Philly is the better team, but i keep seeing Michael Vick, making crazy plays for the whole world to see in the superbowl. I keep seeing it more and more. I know it may sound crazy, but it does seem possible. Philly should win the game, but if you like Atlanta, just take them money line. If they lose it will prob be by 10 plus. when Vick and co. are off, they arent very good

 

[Grogan]

Hardcore, I totally respect your point here.....sometimes you get this vision of something that doesn't track everything else, but you can't just blow it off. Not saying you're right, but it's definitely a point.

 

[Roxygurl]

atlanta is still a dome team and im sure were all aware of dome teams outdoors in january. im sure rush limbaugh must be in absolute heaven this week. his now infamous statement about how the nfl is desirous of a successfull black qb was crazy when he said it and the nfl got what rush thought they wanted in this game. in fact it was a huge story in todays washington post but honestly dont believe its a story at all. they believed its the biggest story of the year.somehow i dont think michael vick vs donovan mcnabb means much compared to the life and sacrifices of pat tillman.i love the eagles and sometimes the publics right.this line could be 7 and it may get there.teams who knock on the superbowl door as often as philly has eventually gets pissed and kicks that door in. its the ne/pitt game im going back and forth on. ~RG

 

[the70srule]

The public is all over Pitt and Philly, just like last week - with Indy and Minnesota.

Weather is going to be a huge factor - 31 high, 15 low with snow on gameday.

In good weather Atlanta wins this game, but with these conditions, it could be ugly. I still like the Falcons with the points, esp if u get 5.5 or 6.

 

[willy23]

the weather is going to be cold and windy.

you would think that would be bad for a dome team. it would for a regular dome team like stl, min, and indy. but, atl is a running team. i think they are the #1 rushing team. if philly has a weakness, it is against the run. so if anything bad weather will benefit atl.

 

[willy23]

i apologize to big lou

:lol: i thought big lou's divisional pick was this weeks title conference game pick.

sorry big lou for including your name in my thread.

it might be a good sign for atl backers.

 

[ElIguana]

I don't hear anyone talking about Atlanta's special teams. They spend a lot of time/energy on their special teams and get a lot of big plays from them (offensive and defensive). I know the Rams aren't that good and that game was in a dome, but the Falcons SHREDDED the Rams on punt and kick returns. Will we see some of the same big special teams plays from the Falcons this week, especially with some snow-camouflage? Special teams kept the Jets in the game last week when they were basically shut down on offense.

 

[hardcorecap]

The public is all over Pitt and Philly, just like last week - with Indy and Minnesota.

Weather is going to be a huge factor - 31 high, 15 low with snow on gameday.

In good weather Atlanta wins this game, but with these conditions, it could be ugly. I still like the Falcons with the points, esp if u get 5.5 or 6.

I am not so sure that the public is on pitt. Its pretty close, but if anything that public is really behind NE. They looked good last week, and the Steelers didnt. Public is def on Philly though.

 

[RSN]

I remember 2 years ago ATL went into Philly during the playoffs. The Eagles won, but Vick scored I believe a game tying TD that got called back because of holding. My point is this...ATL is much better than they were 2 years ago, and Philly is just about the same, if not worse than they were 2 years ago. ATL's defense is better and Vick is more experienced. Philly chokes in these big games at home, and I dont see anything changing this year. Who the hell thought CAR was going to beat them last year? Well, I didn't. I will be taking ATL on the ML and plus the points (just in case). But I don't know how PHI can put up too many points on ATL. ATL just shut down STL, who I think has a better offense than PHI.
Good luck on whichever team you decide.

RSN

 

[xpanda]

I am not so sure that the public is on pitt. Its pretty close, but if anything that public is really behind NE. They looked good last week, and the Steelers didnt. Public is def on Philly though.

According to wagerline, it's 63% for NE. And at another football board, nearly everyone is on NE.

Wagerline has 70% on the Over for Phi/Atl, fwiw.