fading, especially nfl
Hey people, I'm fairly new to this site, but wanted to add my 2 cents worth.....
I've been using carib and sportsbook for a source of players picks/public plays for some time now. My experiance is this: first of all, going against the plays works,MOST of the time.Last Sunday being a major exception. Works best in NFL, second best in NCAA football. That is if you were to bet the whole board!
I believe this is because, in the NFL for instance, the public is rarely going to get the majority of games right. Prior to last weekend, going against the public in the NFL (carib-players picks) would have got you a nice 4 week record of 37-19. Which I would take anyday of the week. The trick here though is you have to eliminate your own tendency to "cherry pick" go with the public on some of the games. My experiance is that ,yes, they are wrong most of the time(players), but you never know which games they are going to be wrong on! Thus, cherry picking can cause the public's usually reliable record of 5-9 (9-5 for you if fading it) to turn into a 8-6 or 7-7 week for you. I find it a VERY useful tool though, particularily when you pay attention to the "BIG" games or marquee games.
For instance, last week in college football, joe public was all over Michigan (loser), Mich ST (loser) Wisky (loser) Oklahoma (loser). All "big" games, (on TV) with lots of public interest. These are the games fading works best on. You might also note, in caribs case, these are the games with the highest number of bets (volume). another indication of increased public interest, and games that are very likey to have lines inflated against what linemakers percieve to be public interest games. I think the info is invaluable is used correctly. Anybody that has other sites with similiar information please let me know. Wagerline, to me is not quite as valuable,...it used to be a couple years ago,.....but now there aren't AS many squares on there.
I would also guess these players pick sites will prove to be great fades during bowl season. I think they work best in nfl due to large number of squares who bet only NFL. They same thinking should apply to bowl games.
Good Luck ,
BTF
Hey people, I'm fairly new to this site, but wanted to add my 2 cents worth.....
I've been using carib and sportsbook for a source of players picks/public plays for some time now. My experiance is this: first of all, going against the plays works,MOST of the time.Last Sunday being a major exception. Works best in NFL, second best in NCAA football. That is if you were to bet the whole board!
I believe this is because, in the NFL for instance, the public is rarely going to get the majority of games right. Prior to last weekend, going against the public in the NFL (carib-players picks) would have got you a nice 4 week record of 37-19. Which I would take anyday of the week. The trick here though is you have to eliminate your own tendency to "cherry pick" go with the public on some of the games. My experiance is that ,yes, they are wrong most of the time(players), but you never know which games they are going to be wrong on! Thus, cherry picking can cause the public's usually reliable record of 5-9 (9-5 for you if fading it) to turn into a 8-6 or 7-7 week for you. I find it a VERY useful tool though, particularily when you pay attention to the "BIG" games or marquee games.
For instance, last week in college football, joe public was all over Michigan (loser), Mich ST (loser) Wisky (loser) Oklahoma (loser). All "big" games, (on TV) with lots of public interest. These are the games fading works best on. You might also note, in caribs case, these are the games with the highest number of bets (volume). another indication of increased public interest, and games that are very likey to have lines inflated against what linemakers percieve to be public interest games. I think the info is invaluable is used correctly. Anybody that has other sites with similiar information please let me know. Wagerline, to me is not quite as valuable,...it used to be a couple years ago,.....but now there aren't AS many squares on there.
I would also guess these players pick sites will prove to be great fades during bowl season. I think they work best in nfl due to large number of squares who bet only NFL. They same thinking should apply to bowl games.
Good Luck ,
BTF
