WASHINGTON –3 Cincinnati 36
No Past History
This game carries all the fundamentals you want in a NFL game. I am always willing to wager on a team that can stop the rush (Washington allows just 3.1ypr against 4.0ypr) and always willing to look to go against a team who can’t stop the rush (Cincinnati allows 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr). The Washington offense, as a whole, isn’t good, averaging just 4.2yppl against 5.1yppl but they’ll face a Cincinnati defense, which is more than willing to give up the yards. Cincinnati is allowing 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. If the Cincinnati offense was playing better, I would be more worried, but the Bengal’s offense is well below average this year, gaining just 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll face a Washington defense, which is allowing just 4.3yppl against 5.1yppl. Based on these numbers, Cincinnati can expect to gain around –1.2yppl from an average NFL offense, while Washington can expect to average about –0.6yppl less than an average NFL offense. While the Washington numbers aren’t great, they’re better than Cincinnati and the Washington defense is well above average and the Cincinnati defense is well below average. That’s a combination, when combined with a low line like this, which greatly favors the home favorite. Washington qualifies in a couple of different situations, but they don’t qualify in the better subsets, which make this game a no play for me, but a strong lean to Washington. Final numbers favor Washington by one and six points. Final totals projects about 34 points being scored and this game does qualify in a 79-44-1 under situation. Based on those situations, numbers and fundamentals, I will lean to Washington. WASHINGTON 21 CINCINNATI 13
NEW ENGLAND –7.5 Buffalo 37.5
3-6-1/4-6-0 16.1-25
Buffalo has come off of two good wins the last two weeks but their final scores have been a little misleading. I talked last week about Buffalo scoring a bunch of points on special teams plays and short yardage situations, which worked to their favor. Special teams and creating those opportunities are part of the game but I don’t think they are going to get those breaks this week against a schooled NE team. Both team’s defenses are good, with NE allowing just 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl and Buffalo allowing just 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. The difference is in the offenses. NE is averaging 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl, including throwing the ball for 6.9yps against 6.0yps. For Buffalo, their offense has been horrible, even in the last two weeks while winning averaging 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl for the season. NE figures to at least have an average offensive output in this game because their offense is pretty good but the Buffalo offense figures to be well below average and that will make it tough for them to play catch up in this game. NE qualifies in a 81-42-3 scheduling situation. Final numbers favor NE by 12 and 11 points and predict about 39 points. I will go with the situations, fundamentals and final numbers. NEW ENGLAND 24 BUFFALO 14
Philadelphia –7 DALLAS 42
6-5-0/5-6-0 21-18.7
Just when it appears that it couldn’t get any worse for the Dallas Cowboys, they threw in a 3-26 clunker against lowly Cincinnati last week. But, that probably means nobody wants Dallas and Philly should show up after getting killed last week in Pittsburgh. Makes sense, but unfortunately, that isn’t the way the NFL works usually. That doesn’t mean usual will play out this week but Dallas, getting a lot of points at home, stands a chance to cover this game. The Philly offense was finally stopped last week but they are still averaging 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.8yps against 5.9yps and 5.9yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll face a poor Dallas defense, which is allowing 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl. The Dallas offense, minus last week, has been pretty good this year, gaining 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They’ll face a Philly defense, which is not playing that well and is now just average this year, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. Philly hasn’t really faced many good offenses this year and when they have they have allowed 16 and 27 points and 5.9yppl and 5.5yppl. Dallas qualifies in my turnover table system, which is 1304-1079-66, including a subset, which is 808-627-36. Teams that don’t cover the spread usually cover the spread when facing teams that are covering the spread late in the season and Dallas qualifies in a situation based on that, which is 281-190-21. They also qualify as a power rating value play, which is 334-239-22. Final numbers favor Philly by 11 and 5.5 points and suggest about 44 points being scored. Dallas, getting a full touchdown at home stands an excellent chance against Philly and I will lean towards the over, but the Dallas injuries at wide receiver worry me enough to keep me off the total in this game. DALLAS 24 PHILADELPHIA 23
No Past History
This game carries all the fundamentals you want in a NFL game. I am always willing to wager on a team that can stop the rush (Washington allows just 3.1ypr against 4.0ypr) and always willing to look to go against a team who can’t stop the rush (Cincinnati allows 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr). The Washington offense, as a whole, isn’t good, averaging just 4.2yppl against 5.1yppl but they’ll face a Cincinnati defense, which is more than willing to give up the yards. Cincinnati is allowing 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. If the Cincinnati offense was playing better, I would be more worried, but the Bengal’s offense is well below average this year, gaining just 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll face a Washington defense, which is allowing just 4.3yppl against 5.1yppl. Based on these numbers, Cincinnati can expect to gain around –1.2yppl from an average NFL offense, while Washington can expect to average about –0.6yppl less than an average NFL offense. While the Washington numbers aren’t great, they’re better than Cincinnati and the Washington defense is well above average and the Cincinnati defense is well below average. That’s a combination, when combined with a low line like this, which greatly favors the home favorite. Washington qualifies in a couple of different situations, but they don’t qualify in the better subsets, which make this game a no play for me, but a strong lean to Washington. Final numbers favor Washington by one and six points. Final totals projects about 34 points being scored and this game does qualify in a 79-44-1 under situation. Based on those situations, numbers and fundamentals, I will lean to Washington. WASHINGTON 21 CINCINNATI 13
NEW ENGLAND –7.5 Buffalo 37.5
3-6-1/4-6-0 16.1-25
Buffalo has come off of two good wins the last two weeks but their final scores have been a little misleading. I talked last week about Buffalo scoring a bunch of points on special teams plays and short yardage situations, which worked to their favor. Special teams and creating those opportunities are part of the game but I don’t think they are going to get those breaks this week against a schooled NE team. Both team’s defenses are good, with NE allowing just 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl and Buffalo allowing just 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. The difference is in the offenses. NE is averaging 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl, including throwing the ball for 6.9yps against 6.0yps. For Buffalo, their offense has been horrible, even in the last two weeks while winning averaging 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl for the season. NE figures to at least have an average offensive output in this game because their offense is pretty good but the Buffalo offense figures to be well below average and that will make it tough for them to play catch up in this game. NE qualifies in a 81-42-3 scheduling situation. Final numbers favor NE by 12 and 11 points and predict about 39 points. I will go with the situations, fundamentals and final numbers. NEW ENGLAND 24 BUFFALO 14
Philadelphia –7 DALLAS 42
6-5-0/5-6-0 21-18.7
Just when it appears that it couldn’t get any worse for the Dallas Cowboys, they threw in a 3-26 clunker against lowly Cincinnati last week. But, that probably means nobody wants Dallas and Philly should show up after getting killed last week in Pittsburgh. Makes sense, but unfortunately, that isn’t the way the NFL works usually. That doesn’t mean usual will play out this week but Dallas, getting a lot of points at home, stands a chance to cover this game. The Philly offense was finally stopped last week but they are still averaging 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.8yps against 5.9yps and 5.9yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll face a poor Dallas defense, which is allowing 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.6yps against 6.2yps and 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl. The Dallas offense, minus last week, has been pretty good this year, gaining 4.0ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They’ll face a Philly defense, which is not playing that well and is now just average this year, allowing 4.7ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl. Philly hasn’t really faced many good offenses this year and when they have they have allowed 16 and 27 points and 5.9yppl and 5.5yppl. Dallas qualifies in my turnover table system, which is 1304-1079-66, including a subset, which is 808-627-36. Teams that don’t cover the spread usually cover the spread when facing teams that are covering the spread late in the season and Dallas qualifies in a situation based on that, which is 281-190-21. They also qualify as a power rating value play, which is 334-239-22. Final numbers favor Philly by 11 and 5.5 points and suggest about 44 points being scored. Dallas, getting a full touchdown at home stands an excellent chance against Philly and I will lean towards the over, but the Dallas injuries at wide receiver worry me enough to keep me off the total in this game. DALLAS 24 PHILADELPHIA 23
