WEEK NINE BEST BETS
YTD 33-24 +18.60% :105317756
3% PITTSBURGH PK Pk or Home Dog Only
3% CLEVELAND +6
<HR color=#c0c0c0 SIZE=1>Philadelphia Pk PITTSBURGH 44
1-1-0/1-1-0 14.5-18.5
I was on Pittsburgh last week and will be on them again this week if this line stops moving against us here. Pittsburgh destroyed NE last week, out gaining them 417-248 and out averaging them 5.7yppl to 4.7yppl. NE was never in the ball game last week. While I believe Philadelphia is a much better team than NE, the Eagles have a chance in this ball game, especially if Pittsburgh ends up being a favorite. The Pittsburgh offense is about average this year, gaining just 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They’ll face an Eagles defense, which is also just average this year, allowing 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Both team’s numbers are somewhat deceiving. While Pittsburgh is only averaging 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl, it must be noted the Steelers are averaging 148 yards rushing per game against teams allowing 128 yards rushing per game. Pittsburgh is rushing the ball 58% of the time. If they would throw the ball like a normal team, their yards per play numbers would probably be better because passes account for a higher yards per play total. For Philly, their yards per rush numbers are poor, but they only allow 113 yards per game rushing against teams who average 116 yards per game rushing. Philly is usually ahead in their games and teams are throwing the ball more often. As a matter of fact, teams are throwing the ball on 65% of their plays against Philly. If teams can stay in the game and run the ball more often against a suspect rush defense, they have an excellent chance of defeating the Eagles. For Philly on offense, there is nothing wrong with their offense, which is averaging 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.2yppl. They’ll face a good Pittsburgh defense, which is allowing 3.8ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.3yps against 5.8yps and 4.7yppl against 5.0yppl. If Pittsburgh is an underdog in this game, they would qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 163-114-10 and Philadelphia would qualify in a negative letdown situation, which is 101-55-3 and plays against Philly here. As a home dog, Pittsburgh would also qualify in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 117-58-7 and 49-12-3 (that last one played on Pittsburgh last week). If the Steelers line stays at a pick ‘em in this game or they are a dog, they would qualify in a power rating value system of mine, which is 330-238-22. No matter the line, Pittsburgh also qualifies in another fundamental rushing situation, which is 74-35-5. Final numbers favor Philly by seven and Pittsburgh by 2.5 points. My final total is projected to be around 48 points. I would have considered this game over the total but with Brian Westbrook a question mark, I am a little scared to play the over. The Eagles offense isn’t quite as good without him and I doubt he will play the whole game this week. If Pittsburgh is a pick ‘em to a dog, they are a best bet, but if they become favored, I will just lean their way. Solid rushing team against a team who doesn’t defend the rush well but I only want them as a best bet if they are not favored. PITTSBURGH 27 PHILADELPHIA 21
BALTIMORE –6 Cleveland 35
3-2-0/3-2-0 14.2-24.8
The Ravens hung tough with a good Philadelphia team last week and held the Eagles high powered offense to just 5.1yppl. As good as the Baltimore defense is, their offense is just as bad, as both the offense and defense, are averaging and allowing 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll face an average Cleveland offense, gaining 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl and a below average Cleveland defense, allowing 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl. Cleveland’s defense has really struggled against the pass, allowing 6.9yps against 6.0yps but I doubt the Baltimore offense can take full advantage of that, averaging just 4.6yps against 6.0yps. Cleveland qualifies in my turnover table system, which is 1297-1074-66, including qualifying in a subset, which is 804-623-36. They are also coming off a couple of home games, but that works in their favor, as they qualify in a scheduling situation, which is 115-65-5. Cleveland’s defense played poorly in their last game against Philadelphia, but that works to their favor here, as they qualify in a bounce back defensive effort, which is 166-98-9. Final numbers favor Baltimore by seven and 4.5 points before accounting for the situations, so there is plenty of value for Cleveland in this game. Those numbers also total to 36 points being scored, so I will lean slightly to the over as well. Having a quarterback that can scramble and avoid some of the pressure that Baltimore can put on an offense, gives Cleveland a chance here and they should be able to move the ball enough to stay close to a poor Baltimore offense, laying a substantial amount of points. CLEVELAND 20 BALTIMORE 18
INDIANAPOLIS –6 Minnesota 58.5
0-1-0/0-1-0 10-31
I’ve talked the past couple of weeks about Minnesota having to resort to dinking and dunking their way down the field without Randy Moss and they’ll be without him again this week, more than likely. But, what I’ve realized is they aren’t resorting to the dinking and dunking because of their choice, but rather that appears all they can do. All of a sudden, their offense is averaging just 5.2yppl over the past two games and having trouble stretching the field with the long pass. It’ll be better this week against a bad Indy defense, which is allowing 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl but Mike Tice knows he needs to control the ball to keep the great Indy offense, which is averaging 6.7yppl against 5.6yppl off the field. Tice hinted they will probably use two backs this week, which probably indicates they are looking to run the ball and control the clock. He knows his defense, which is allowing 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl and has allowed 6.7yppl, 6.4yppl and 6.0yppl on the road this year, doesn’t stand a chance if they have to play the majority of the game on the field. The Vikings do qualify as a turnover table system play, which is 1297-1074-66, including qualifying in a subset, which is 804-623-36. They don’t qualify in any other systems, which means just a lean their way. Final numbers only favor Indy by five and two points and the final total is suggested to be about 62 points. That total is reflective of their whole season, rather than just their last two games without Moss. Knowing their offense has only averaged 5.2yppl the past two weeks and Moss will miss this game again, along with Tice’s desire to run the ball, makes playing a high total like this over very hard to do. At the same time, Indy has averaged 35 points at home this year but also allowed 24 points, which makes playing the under impossible as well. A small lean to a banged up Minnesota team and a small lean to the over. INDIANAPOLIS 32 MINNESOTA 29
YTD 33-24 +18.60% :105317756
3% PITTSBURGH PK Pk or Home Dog Only
3% CLEVELAND +6
<HR color=#c0c0c0 SIZE=1>Philadelphia Pk PITTSBURGH 44
1-1-0/1-1-0 14.5-18.5
I was on Pittsburgh last week and will be on them again this week if this line stops moving against us here. Pittsburgh destroyed NE last week, out gaining them 417-248 and out averaging them 5.7yppl to 4.7yppl. NE was never in the ball game last week. While I believe Philadelphia is a much better team than NE, the Eagles have a chance in this ball game, especially if Pittsburgh ends up being a favorite. The Pittsburgh offense is about average this year, gaining just 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. They’ll face an Eagles defense, which is also just average this year, allowing 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Both team’s numbers are somewhat deceiving. While Pittsburgh is only averaging 4.0ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl, it must be noted the Steelers are averaging 148 yards rushing per game against teams allowing 128 yards rushing per game. Pittsburgh is rushing the ball 58% of the time. If they would throw the ball like a normal team, their yards per play numbers would probably be better because passes account for a higher yards per play total. For Philly, their yards per rush numbers are poor, but they only allow 113 yards per game rushing against teams who average 116 yards per game rushing. Philly is usually ahead in their games and teams are throwing the ball more often. As a matter of fact, teams are throwing the ball on 65% of their plays against Philly. If teams can stay in the game and run the ball more often against a suspect rush defense, they have an excellent chance of defeating the Eagles. For Philly on offense, there is nothing wrong with their offense, which is averaging 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 6.2yppl against 5.2yppl. They’ll face a good Pittsburgh defense, which is allowing 3.8ypr against 3.9ypr, 5.3yps against 5.8yps and 4.7yppl against 5.0yppl. If Pittsburgh is an underdog in this game, they would qualify in a home momentum situation, which is 163-114-10 and Philadelphia would qualify in a negative letdown situation, which is 101-55-3 and plays against Philly here. As a home dog, Pittsburgh would also qualify in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 117-58-7 and 49-12-3 (that last one played on Pittsburgh last week). If the Steelers line stays at a pick ‘em in this game or they are a dog, they would qualify in a power rating value system of mine, which is 330-238-22. No matter the line, Pittsburgh also qualifies in another fundamental rushing situation, which is 74-35-5. Final numbers favor Philly by seven and Pittsburgh by 2.5 points. My final total is projected to be around 48 points. I would have considered this game over the total but with Brian Westbrook a question mark, I am a little scared to play the over. The Eagles offense isn’t quite as good without him and I doubt he will play the whole game this week. If Pittsburgh is a pick ‘em to a dog, they are a best bet, but if they become favored, I will just lean their way. Solid rushing team against a team who doesn’t defend the rush well but I only want them as a best bet if they are not favored. PITTSBURGH 27 PHILADELPHIA 21
BALTIMORE –6 Cleveland 35
3-2-0/3-2-0 14.2-24.8
The Ravens hung tough with a good Philadelphia team last week and held the Eagles high powered offense to just 5.1yppl. As good as the Baltimore defense is, their offense is just as bad, as both the offense and defense, are averaging and allowing 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll face an average Cleveland offense, gaining 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl and a below average Cleveland defense, allowing 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl. Cleveland’s defense has really struggled against the pass, allowing 6.9yps against 6.0yps but I doubt the Baltimore offense can take full advantage of that, averaging just 4.6yps against 6.0yps. Cleveland qualifies in my turnover table system, which is 1297-1074-66, including qualifying in a subset, which is 804-623-36. They are also coming off a couple of home games, but that works in their favor, as they qualify in a scheduling situation, which is 115-65-5. Cleveland’s defense played poorly in their last game against Philadelphia, but that works to their favor here, as they qualify in a bounce back defensive effort, which is 166-98-9. Final numbers favor Baltimore by seven and 4.5 points before accounting for the situations, so there is plenty of value for Cleveland in this game. Those numbers also total to 36 points being scored, so I will lean slightly to the over as well. Having a quarterback that can scramble and avoid some of the pressure that Baltimore can put on an offense, gives Cleveland a chance here and they should be able to move the ball enough to stay close to a poor Baltimore offense, laying a substantial amount of points. CLEVELAND 20 BALTIMORE 18
INDIANAPOLIS –6 Minnesota 58.5
0-1-0/0-1-0 10-31
I’ve talked the past couple of weeks about Minnesota having to resort to dinking and dunking their way down the field without Randy Moss and they’ll be without him again this week, more than likely. But, what I’ve realized is they aren’t resorting to the dinking and dunking because of their choice, but rather that appears all they can do. All of a sudden, their offense is averaging just 5.2yppl over the past two games and having trouble stretching the field with the long pass. It’ll be better this week against a bad Indy defense, which is allowing 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl but Mike Tice knows he needs to control the ball to keep the great Indy offense, which is averaging 6.7yppl against 5.6yppl off the field. Tice hinted they will probably use two backs this week, which probably indicates they are looking to run the ball and control the clock. He knows his defense, which is allowing 5.6yppl against 5.4yppl and has allowed 6.7yppl, 6.4yppl and 6.0yppl on the road this year, doesn’t stand a chance if they have to play the majority of the game on the field. The Vikings do qualify as a turnover table system play, which is 1297-1074-66, including qualifying in a subset, which is 804-623-36. They don’t qualify in any other systems, which means just a lean their way. Final numbers only favor Indy by five and two points and the final total is suggested to be about 62 points. That total is reflective of their whole season, rather than just their last two games without Moss. Knowing their offense has only averaged 5.2yppl the past two weeks and Moss will miss this game again, along with Tice’s desire to run the ball, makes playing a high total like this over very hard to do. At the same time, Indy has averaged 35 points at home this year but also allowed 24 points, which makes playing the under impossible as well. A small lean to a banged up Minnesota team and a small lean to the over. INDIANAPOLIS 32 MINNESOTA 29
