WEEK EIGHT BEST BETS
YTD 30-22 +16.20%
3% KANSAS CITY +1
<HR color=#c0c0c0 SIZE=1>Indianapolis –1 KANSAS CITY 57
5-0-0/3-2-0 26.8-19.8
Indianapolis remains an over rated team. Their high profile offense remains one of the best but it also means they get saddled with over inflated lines. Indy is averaging 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 8.2yps against 6.7yps and 6.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They’ll face a below average KC defense, which is allowing 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Those numbers would suggest Indy should average somewhere around 6.5yppl in this game. For KC, they averaged 7.0yppl last week in their 56-10 romp over Atlanta and are now averaging 4.8ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll face an even worse defense in Indy, which is allowing 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.8yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Those numbers suggest about 6.3yppl for KC this week. Those numbers are pretty close and they figure to be a little better for KC because they are at home and a little worse for Indy because they are on the road. KC qualifies in numerous solid situations this week including a home momentum situation, which is 161-113-10. I stated last week that teams that are not covering the spread versus teams who are covering the spread are excellent wagering opportunities and KC qualifies in a situation based on that premise, which is 278-188-21. KC also qualifies in a power rating system based on value, which is 328-236-22 and was 2-0 last week with Arizona and Cleveland. The Chiefs also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 72-34-5. Final numbers favor Indy by one point and KC by 1.5 points and final total suggests about 64 points being scored. I’m not about to go over 57 points but this game certainly stands a good chance of being high scoring. Plenty of value with KC and a ton of strong situations on them as well. KC is now 20-3-2 ats as a home dog with a win percentage of .333 or greater. KC gets their revenge this week. KANSAS CITY 37 INDIANAPOLIS 31
CHICAGO –1.5 San Francisco 35.5
0-1-0/1-0-0 31-37
They don’t get much worse than this. Two teams nobody could care about playing on Sunday night. Not even fantasy football players have much reason to watch this game, with the exception of a couple of players. Both teams are below average offensively, with Chicago averaging just 4.5yppl against 5.1yppl and SF averaging just 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. On defense, both teams have played above average, with Chicago allowing just 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl and SF allowing 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. Both teams qualify in solid situations, with Chicago qualifying in one more than SF and with the advantage there. My strongest lean here would be to the under. I would play it if we were getting a few more points. Both teams have below average offenses and above average defenses. We’re just not getting enough points for my liking. Final total predicts about 33 points but the total is simply too low if turnovers start creating points, etc. Final numbers favor SF by four points and ½ point. I’ll lean with what I think is the better team and where the situations favor and that is Chicago but again the stronger lean would be the under. CHICAGO 17 SAN FRANCISCO 10
NY JETS –6.5 Miami 35
3-5-2/5-5-0 22-22.1
Another tough game to call as I have situations going both ways and neither situation is strong enough to lean on. I’ll base this situation on the line of scrimmage numbers, which favor Miami. I still believe the Jets are overrated. Their offense has been good this year, averaging 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll face a solid Miami defense, which shut them down earlier this year and allowing just 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.0yps against 6.1yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Going the other way, the Miami offense is not good, averaging 3.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.9yps against 6.2yps and 4.2yppl against 5.3yppl. But, they’ll face a terrible Jets defense, which is allowing 4.2ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.6yps against 5.8yps and 5.6yppl against 4.9yppl. Earlier this year, Miami out averaged the Jets 5.1yppl to 4.1yppl but lost the battle because of turnovers. I doubt they will fare quite as well this week but if they avoid the turnovers they will be in this game. Final numbers favor the Jets by 18 and 13.5 points but I’m betting the turnovers turn the corner for Miami and they stay in this game. It’s a weak lean but a lean to the better defense. NY JETS 20 MIAMI 14
YTD 30-22 +16.20%
3% KANSAS CITY +1
<HR color=#c0c0c0 SIZE=1>Indianapolis –1 KANSAS CITY 57
5-0-0/3-2-0 26.8-19.8
Indianapolis remains an over rated team. Their high profile offense remains one of the best but it also means they get saddled with over inflated lines. Indy is averaging 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 8.2yps against 6.7yps and 6.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They’ll face a below average KC defense, which is allowing 4.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Those numbers would suggest Indy should average somewhere around 6.5yppl in this game. For KC, they averaged 7.0yppl last week in their 56-10 romp over Atlanta and are now averaging 4.8ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll face an even worse defense in Indy, which is allowing 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.8yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. Those numbers suggest about 6.3yppl for KC this week. Those numbers are pretty close and they figure to be a little better for KC because they are at home and a little worse for Indy because they are on the road. KC qualifies in numerous solid situations this week including a home momentum situation, which is 161-113-10. I stated last week that teams that are not covering the spread versus teams who are covering the spread are excellent wagering opportunities and KC qualifies in a situation based on that premise, which is 278-188-21. KC also qualifies in a power rating system based on value, which is 328-236-22 and was 2-0 last week with Arizona and Cleveland. The Chiefs also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 72-34-5. Final numbers favor Indy by one point and KC by 1.5 points and final total suggests about 64 points being scored. I’m not about to go over 57 points but this game certainly stands a good chance of being high scoring. Plenty of value with KC and a ton of strong situations on them as well. KC is now 20-3-2 ats as a home dog with a win percentage of .333 or greater. KC gets their revenge this week. KANSAS CITY 37 INDIANAPOLIS 31
CHICAGO –1.5 San Francisco 35.5
0-1-0/1-0-0 31-37
They don’t get much worse than this. Two teams nobody could care about playing on Sunday night. Not even fantasy football players have much reason to watch this game, with the exception of a couple of players. Both teams are below average offensively, with Chicago averaging just 4.5yppl against 5.1yppl and SF averaging just 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. On defense, both teams have played above average, with Chicago allowing just 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl and SF allowing 5.2yppl against 5.3yppl. Both teams qualify in solid situations, with Chicago qualifying in one more than SF and with the advantage there. My strongest lean here would be to the under. I would play it if we were getting a few more points. Both teams have below average offenses and above average defenses. We’re just not getting enough points for my liking. Final total predicts about 33 points but the total is simply too low if turnovers start creating points, etc. Final numbers favor SF by four points and ½ point. I’ll lean with what I think is the better team and where the situations favor and that is Chicago but again the stronger lean would be the under. CHICAGO 17 SAN FRANCISCO 10
NY JETS –6.5 Miami 35
3-5-2/5-5-0 22-22.1
Another tough game to call as I have situations going both ways and neither situation is strong enough to lean on. I’ll base this situation on the line of scrimmage numbers, which favor Miami. I still believe the Jets are overrated. Their offense has been good this year, averaging 4.4ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.1yppl. They’ll face a solid Miami defense, which shut them down earlier this year and allowing just 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.0yps against 6.1yps and 4.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Going the other way, the Miami offense is not good, averaging 3.1ypr against 4.3ypr, 4.9yps against 6.2yps and 4.2yppl against 5.3yppl. But, they’ll face a terrible Jets defense, which is allowing 4.2ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.6yps against 5.8yps and 5.6yppl against 4.9yppl. Earlier this year, Miami out averaged the Jets 5.1yppl to 4.1yppl but lost the battle because of turnovers. I doubt they will fare quite as well this week but if they avoid the turnovers they will be in this game. Final numbers favor the Jets by 18 and 13.5 points but I’m betting the turnovers turn the corner for Miami and they stay in this game. It’s a weak lean but a lean to the better defense. NY JETS 20 MIAMI 14
