Jacksonville +3½ over GREEN BAY
The intent of the point-spread is to equalize each team’s chance of covering. The ‘better’ team spots the ‘lesser’ team some points. Occasionally though, the wrong team is spotting those points. That’s the case here. The Packers play in the much weaker NFC where they have compiled a deceiving 8-5 record. A peek underneath the hood reveals a team that has defeated opponents that are a combined 38-53 and does not include losses to the Bears, Giants and Titans. That trio is a collective 14-25. The Jaguars are a solid group that have faced a much tougher schedule and are the more efficient squad. Forget the frozen tundra, forget the mystique, forget the passing arm of Brett Favre and all the other nonsense that surrounds the Pack. Fact is, this team is not close to being ready to take it to the next level and their 1-4 start to the year was no aberration. Green Bay’s pedigree hasn’t changed all year, play a good team and lose, play a marshmallow and win. Why should we believe anything will change this week? Play: Jacksonville +3½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5)
INDIANAPOLIS –7½ over Baltimore
Generally, it’s wiser to take points with a strong defense facing a formidable offense. However, there are exceptions to every rule. The Colts took a breather last week, producing just enough to win by a 23-14 count in Houston. Now they’re home in a featured Sunday night game with Peyton Manning closing in on touchdown record. He’ll be airing it out against a Ravens defense that has not faced many passing teams but showed weakness in that area when the Bengals racked up 644 passing yards in two meetings. Ravens easy win over Giants last week holds no water here as the G-Men can barely field a team. The Ravens 8-5 record doesn’t impress us either. Their last impressive win was in week two when they did in the Steelers, before Roethlisberger joined the team. In fact, the last two playoff bound teams they faced, the Eagles and New England, the Ravens lost them both. Baltimore’s incapable of playing catch up and its style won’t work here. Play: Indianapolis –7½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5)
ATLANTA –3½ over Carolina
We’re not buying into Carolina’s recent resurgence despite being on a five-game win streak. The Panthers have yet to defeat a .500 team with current streak consisting of Cards, Niners, Bucs, Saints and Rams. Against Philadelphia, San Diego and this Atlanta squad, these feeble felines amassed an unimpressive 24 points. Panthers have looked awful, even in winning and that five game win streak suddenly has the public paying attention. Atlanta would like to secure second seed in the conference and a win here would sew that up. Falcons won first meeting by 17 in Carolina and this being their last home game before playoffs, we’ll expect a solid effort for partisan crowd. Play: Atlanta –3½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5)
PHILADELPHIA –11½ over Dallas
The Cowboys would like to avenge an earlier 49-21 pounding but don’t expect that to happen. The Eagles are too strong at home and have allowed just 74 points on this field all season long. Dallas has given up 136 points in its past four road games and a home loss to the Saints last week, in a game they had to have, tells us just about everything we need to know about this edition of the Boys. Dallas’ five wins this year have come against Cleveland, Washington, Detroit, Chicago, and Seattle, the latter being of the miracle variety and the win over the Bears coming on Thanksgiving Day with the Bears traveling on a four day week and no QB. Dallas is in the bowels of this league right now and we don’t expect much of them the rest of the way. Play: Philadelphia –11½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5)
The Rest of the Games
Pittsburgh –10 over NY GIANTS
It used to be dangerous spotting double-digit road points and it’s something we haven’t done in a long, long time. Not anymore, the Giants have forced our hand. The disparity between teams is quite apparent this season as road favorites of seven or more are an astonishing 19-8 against the number. Giants barely fielding a pro team right now and we just can’t recommend playing a team that is freefalling as bad as these Giants. Let Jeremy Shockey make his four-yard catches and celebrate it like he just found Bin Laden. Giants are too banged up, both physically and psychologically, to compete here on a short week. Play: Pittsburgh –10 (No bets)
SAN FRANCISCO +5 over Washington
If the Niners could play Arizona every week, they’d be undefeated. Tough to spin case for San Francisco but even tougher to endorse Redskins as a road favorite. Skins have scored just 43 points in past four away games and QB Patrick Ramsey makes too many poor decisions to make this team worthy of being road chalk. This one will likely be a low scoring affair, as the total would suggest, and with that in mind, taking the points is the right play. Washington gave the Eagles a scare last week on featured Sunday night game and that has the public leaning to this invader. This is a short week for the Skins, traveling across the country after demoralizing loss to Philly in a game they could have clearly won. Not a good situation to be spotting points on the road. We’re calling the 49ers outright. Play: San Francisco +5 (No bets)
DETROIT +3 over Minnesota
Lions are getting healthier on offense and they’ll likely require able bodies as this one figures to be high scoring with both teams depleted on defense. Vikings hardly worthy of being chalk here as they continue to underachieve and had to climb a mountain to win earlier meeting in Minny. Something happens to this Viking team every year after Halloween that’s simply mind-boggling. Wagering on the Vikes in December is like playing Caribbean Stud in the casino. You want to put your dollar up but know you’re not going to hit a royal flush. You have two choices here, play the Lions or lay off, we’ll choose the latter. Play: Detroit +3 (No bets)
San Diego –10 over CLEVELAND
Browns easily the worst team in football right now and there is no reason to believe things get better before they get worse. Cleveland compiled a measly 17 yards of offense last week. Brownies have nothing going for them and one has to wonder how they’ll possibly get up for this game. Chargers more than capable of arriving here and steamrolling host. Play: San Diego –10 (No bets)
TAMPA BAY –8 over New Orleans
Goofy Saints attempting to win consecutive road games but that’s unlikely to happen against Tampa team that has played its best football on home turf. Bucs have won previous two home games by a combined 62-3, including visit from division-leading Falcons. Bucs QB, Brian Griese is playing as good as any QB in the business right now, with he exception of you know who, and will rip apart this porous pass defense. It’s likely going to be another frustrating day for Saint backers and once again, for those who back New Orleans, you’ll be asking yourself the same question…why? Play: Tampa Bay –8 (No bets)
Buffalo –1 over CINCINNATI
Seems like everyone has a strong opinion on this game and most appear to be siding with the home side. That’s red flag number one. Red flag number two has us paying attention to the Bengals defense, which has been somewhat non-existent the past few weeks. How do you allow the Brownies to hang a 48 on you? You know after allowing that the Bengals focus in practice had to be on the defensive side of the ball. So what do they do? They allow the anemic Ravens to score 26 and then give up 35 to New England. Cincy’s last four wins have come against Baltimore, Cleveland, Washington and Dallas. They’re now asked to play against a team that has completely turned around their season and in fact, has won six of its last seven. The only loss over that span came against the champion Patriots. Bills have a strong running game, a rejuvenated QB and an excellent defense. Play: Buffalo –1 (No bets)
CHICAGO –1 over Houston
Bears will be without Brian Urlacher for this one but it may not matter against a declining Texans squad. Houston has just one win in past six games and until they figure out how to protect their quarterback, wins will come sparingly. Chicago pulled a no show last week in Jacksonville and that didn’t sit well with Lovie Smith. Not going to put too much emphasis on that because we know for sure that the Bears will show up this week.
Play: Chicago –1 (No bets)
ARIZONA +3 over St. Louis
Simply put, the Rams are ridiculous. Sitcoms aren’t as funny. They fumble and bumble their way through almost every game and find innovative ways to lose. Under no circumstances would we spot road points with this Mike Martz’s muddled mess. The Panthers did all they could last week to lose to this squad (seven turnovers) and all the Rams could muster was seven lousy points. The fact that the Rams playoff lives may be on the line here does nothing to convince us of anything. The fact that the line went from 1½ to 3 makes us wonder who in their right mind is wagering on this team. They should label this one the “Idiot Bowl” to determine who is the bigger one, Martz or Green. Cardinals the only play here, if you must. Play: Arizona +3 (No bets)
KANSAS CITY +1 over Denver
While Kansas City can’t stop anybody, at least you know what you’re getting. The Broncos aren’t that consistent. They’ve lost two of three and barely got by lowly Dolphins last week. Chiefs on short week but still would like to avenge earlier loss to this rival and Arrowhead remains as tough a place to win as any. We’ve said it all year that the Broncos aren’t much and last two weeks is a strong indication of who this team really is. Play: Kansas City +1 (No bets)
NY JETS –6 over Seattle
It’s one thing for the Seahawks to fly to an indoor stadium and defeat the unpredictable Vikings on their own turf. It’s quite another to fly to a cold-weather site against a winning AFC club such as these Jets and win consecutive road games. Seattle receivers can’t catch a ball indoors, how are they going to catch a frozen rock outdoors? Jets too disciplined to allow this intruder to come in here and do anything but leave with another loss. Play: NY Jets –6 (No bets)
OAKLAND –2½ over Tennessee
These Titans have more holes than four days at Augusta. In addition, Tennessee is playing its fourth road game in five weeks and must play this one on a short week. Did they do something to the schedule maker? Even Raiders capable of taking advantage here. Actually, the Raiders, although their record may not say so, have been playing much bettor of late. Even in loss to Atlanta last week by a lopsided score, it was just one quarter that did them in. Tennessee dangerous offensively and that’s the only thing that has us backing off this one. A convincing win by the Raiders would not surprise us one bit. Play: Oakland –2½ (No bets)
The intent of the point-spread is to equalize each team’s chance of covering. The ‘better’ team spots the ‘lesser’ team some points. Occasionally though, the wrong team is spotting those points. That’s the case here. The Packers play in the much weaker NFC where they have compiled a deceiving 8-5 record. A peek underneath the hood reveals a team that has defeated opponents that are a combined 38-53 and does not include losses to the Bears, Giants and Titans. That trio is a collective 14-25. The Jaguars are a solid group that have faced a much tougher schedule and are the more efficient squad. Forget the frozen tundra, forget the mystique, forget the passing arm of Brett Favre and all the other nonsense that surrounds the Pack. Fact is, this team is not close to being ready to take it to the next level and their 1-4 start to the year was no aberration. Green Bay’s pedigree hasn’t changed all year, play a good team and lose, play a marshmallow and win. Why should we believe anything will change this week? Play: Jacksonville +3½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5)
INDIANAPOLIS –7½ over Baltimore
Generally, it’s wiser to take points with a strong defense facing a formidable offense. However, there are exceptions to every rule. The Colts took a breather last week, producing just enough to win by a 23-14 count in Houston. Now they’re home in a featured Sunday night game with Peyton Manning closing in on touchdown record. He’ll be airing it out against a Ravens defense that has not faced many passing teams but showed weakness in that area when the Bengals racked up 644 passing yards in two meetings. Ravens easy win over Giants last week holds no water here as the G-Men can barely field a team. The Ravens 8-5 record doesn’t impress us either. Their last impressive win was in week two when they did in the Steelers, before Roethlisberger joined the team. In fact, the last two playoff bound teams they faced, the Eagles and New England, the Ravens lost them both. Baltimore’s incapable of playing catch up and its style won’t work here. Play: Indianapolis –7½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5)
ATLANTA –3½ over Carolina
We’re not buying into Carolina’s recent resurgence despite being on a five-game win streak. The Panthers have yet to defeat a .500 team with current streak consisting of Cards, Niners, Bucs, Saints and Rams. Against Philadelphia, San Diego and this Atlanta squad, these feeble felines amassed an unimpressive 24 points. Panthers have looked awful, even in winning and that five game win streak suddenly has the public paying attention. Atlanta would like to secure second seed in the conference and a win here would sew that up. Falcons won first meeting by 17 in Carolina and this being their last home game before playoffs, we’ll expect a solid effort for partisan crowd. Play: Atlanta –3½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5)
PHILADELPHIA –11½ over Dallas
The Cowboys would like to avenge an earlier 49-21 pounding but don’t expect that to happen. The Eagles are too strong at home and have allowed just 74 points on this field all season long. Dallas has given up 136 points in its past four road games and a home loss to the Saints last week, in a game they had to have, tells us just about everything we need to know about this edition of the Boys. Dallas’ five wins this year have come against Cleveland, Washington, Detroit, Chicago, and Seattle, the latter being of the miracle variety and the win over the Bears coming on Thanksgiving Day with the Bears traveling on a four day week and no QB. Dallas is in the bowels of this league right now and we don’t expect much of them the rest of the way. Play: Philadelphia –11½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5)
The Rest of the Games
Pittsburgh –10 over NY GIANTS
It used to be dangerous spotting double-digit road points and it’s something we haven’t done in a long, long time. Not anymore, the Giants have forced our hand. The disparity between teams is quite apparent this season as road favorites of seven or more are an astonishing 19-8 against the number. Giants barely fielding a pro team right now and we just can’t recommend playing a team that is freefalling as bad as these Giants. Let Jeremy Shockey make his four-yard catches and celebrate it like he just found Bin Laden. Giants are too banged up, both physically and psychologically, to compete here on a short week. Play: Pittsburgh –10 (No bets)
SAN FRANCISCO +5 over Washington
If the Niners could play Arizona every week, they’d be undefeated. Tough to spin case for San Francisco but even tougher to endorse Redskins as a road favorite. Skins have scored just 43 points in past four away games and QB Patrick Ramsey makes too many poor decisions to make this team worthy of being road chalk. This one will likely be a low scoring affair, as the total would suggest, and with that in mind, taking the points is the right play. Washington gave the Eagles a scare last week on featured Sunday night game and that has the public leaning to this invader. This is a short week for the Skins, traveling across the country after demoralizing loss to Philly in a game they could have clearly won. Not a good situation to be spotting points on the road. We’re calling the 49ers outright. Play: San Francisco +5 (No bets)
DETROIT +3 over Minnesota
Lions are getting healthier on offense and they’ll likely require able bodies as this one figures to be high scoring with both teams depleted on defense. Vikings hardly worthy of being chalk here as they continue to underachieve and had to climb a mountain to win earlier meeting in Minny. Something happens to this Viking team every year after Halloween that’s simply mind-boggling. Wagering on the Vikes in December is like playing Caribbean Stud in the casino. You want to put your dollar up but know you’re not going to hit a royal flush. You have two choices here, play the Lions or lay off, we’ll choose the latter. Play: Detroit +3 (No bets)
San Diego –10 over CLEVELAND
Browns easily the worst team in football right now and there is no reason to believe things get better before they get worse. Cleveland compiled a measly 17 yards of offense last week. Brownies have nothing going for them and one has to wonder how they’ll possibly get up for this game. Chargers more than capable of arriving here and steamrolling host. Play: San Diego –10 (No bets)
TAMPA BAY –8 over New Orleans
Goofy Saints attempting to win consecutive road games but that’s unlikely to happen against Tampa team that has played its best football on home turf. Bucs have won previous two home games by a combined 62-3, including visit from division-leading Falcons. Bucs QB, Brian Griese is playing as good as any QB in the business right now, with he exception of you know who, and will rip apart this porous pass defense. It’s likely going to be another frustrating day for Saint backers and once again, for those who back New Orleans, you’ll be asking yourself the same question…why? Play: Tampa Bay –8 (No bets)
Buffalo –1 over CINCINNATI
Seems like everyone has a strong opinion on this game and most appear to be siding with the home side. That’s red flag number one. Red flag number two has us paying attention to the Bengals defense, which has been somewhat non-existent the past few weeks. How do you allow the Brownies to hang a 48 on you? You know after allowing that the Bengals focus in practice had to be on the defensive side of the ball. So what do they do? They allow the anemic Ravens to score 26 and then give up 35 to New England. Cincy’s last four wins have come against Baltimore, Cleveland, Washington and Dallas. They’re now asked to play against a team that has completely turned around their season and in fact, has won six of its last seven. The only loss over that span came against the champion Patriots. Bills have a strong running game, a rejuvenated QB and an excellent defense. Play: Buffalo –1 (No bets)
CHICAGO –1 over Houston
Bears will be without Brian Urlacher for this one but it may not matter against a declining Texans squad. Houston has just one win in past six games and until they figure out how to protect their quarterback, wins will come sparingly. Chicago pulled a no show last week in Jacksonville and that didn’t sit well with Lovie Smith. Not going to put too much emphasis on that because we know for sure that the Bears will show up this week.
Play: Chicago –1 (No bets)
ARIZONA +3 over St. Louis
Simply put, the Rams are ridiculous. Sitcoms aren’t as funny. They fumble and bumble their way through almost every game and find innovative ways to lose. Under no circumstances would we spot road points with this Mike Martz’s muddled mess. The Panthers did all they could last week to lose to this squad (seven turnovers) and all the Rams could muster was seven lousy points. The fact that the Rams playoff lives may be on the line here does nothing to convince us of anything. The fact that the line went from 1½ to 3 makes us wonder who in their right mind is wagering on this team. They should label this one the “Idiot Bowl” to determine who is the bigger one, Martz or Green. Cardinals the only play here, if you must. Play: Arizona +3 (No bets)
KANSAS CITY +1 over Denver
While Kansas City can’t stop anybody, at least you know what you’re getting. The Broncos aren’t that consistent. They’ve lost two of three and barely got by lowly Dolphins last week. Chiefs on short week but still would like to avenge earlier loss to this rival and Arrowhead remains as tough a place to win as any. We’ve said it all year that the Broncos aren’t much and last two weeks is a strong indication of who this team really is. Play: Kansas City +1 (No bets)
NY JETS –6 over Seattle
It’s one thing for the Seahawks to fly to an indoor stadium and defeat the unpredictable Vikings on their own turf. It’s quite another to fly to a cold-weather site against a winning AFC club such as these Jets and win consecutive road games. Seattle receivers can’t catch a ball indoors, how are they going to catch a frozen rock outdoors? Jets too disciplined to allow this intruder to come in here and do anything but leave with another loss. Play: NY Jets –6 (No bets)
OAKLAND –2½ over Tennessee
These Titans have more holes than four days at Augusta. In addition, Tennessee is playing its fourth road game in five weeks and must play this one on a short week. Did they do something to the schedule maker? Even Raiders capable of taking advantage here. Actually, the Raiders, although their record may not say so, have been playing much bettor of late. Even in loss to Atlanta last week by a lopsided score, it was just one quarter that did them in. Tennessee dangerous offensively and that’s the only thing that has us backing off this one. A convincing win by the Raiders would not surprise us one bit. Play: Oakland –2½ (No bets)
