(Y-T-D) 29-24 +10.61 units
WASHINGTON –2 over NY Giants<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o
></o>Washington was somewhat embarrassed in early-season meeting when they committed an unheard of seven turnovers. Still, the Giants barely won. Now the Skins will face Eli Manning as he hits the road for the first time and will do so against one of the league’s stingiest defenses. Manning has had little protection and the results have been drastic. Patrick Ramsey gets his first home start after replacing Mark Brunell and after facing the Steelers and Eagles, he and the Redskins should be able to slay these Giants. Losers of five of its past six with three of them to the Lions, Bears, and Cardinals does nothing to convince us that the G-Men are ready to take on anyone. Skins haven’t found the winners circle much this year but have found the right enemy this week. Play Washington –2 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
<o
></o>INDIANAPOLIS –11 over Tennessee<o
></o>Beat up Titans team traveling for third consecutive week and we saw the wind come out of their sails in last week’s second half collapse to Texans. This road weary team arrives in Indianapolis to face a rested Colts squad that hasn’t played for 10 days and have barely broken a sweat when annihilating all comers. Peyton Manning has turned this sport into a pitch-and-catch exhibit that no one has come close to stopping. Indy has outscored past three opponents by a ridiculous 131-33. Colts won earlier meeting by 14 in Nashville and this assignment is much simpler. Titans simply out of weapons to keep pace with this offensive monster. Play Indianapolis –11 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
<o
></o>SAN DIEGO –3 +1.00 over Denver
Just win, baby! Chargers keep rolling along having won five straight, seven of eight and have failed to cover just once all season. LaDainian Tomlinson is healthy again and Chargers have scored 157 points in past four home games. Broncos off a horrible Monday night performance against a team they love to beat and that loss was no aberration. Broncos record impressive but their pedigree is not. Broncs last five wins have come against the Saints, Texans, Raiders, Panthers, and Bucs and the latter was in week four when the Bucs were reeling. Remember the Monday nighter against the Bengals they were supposed to win? Remember last week as 11½-point chalk that they were supposed to cruise to victory? No team has had an easier schedule then the Broncos and Chargers will expose them for what they are, a very ordinary football team. Play San Diego –3 +1.00 (Risking 1.5 units).
<o
></o>NY JETS –7 over Houston<o
></o>Line may appear a bit fat but we’re not buying it. The Jets offense has trouble scoring on the best of days but likely won’t have much trouble here. The Texans defense is as bad as it gets and only costly errors by the opposition has this team at the respectable level. Fact is, they give up tons of yardage, they can’t run the ball, and they’re on the road after a huge come from behind win last week. Texans allowed an alarming 80 points against in past two road games and even the Lions hung a 28 on them earlier in year. Jets winning ugly, however, they seldom make a costly turnover and seldom take a bad penalty. This is a disciplined Jets team that will wear you down and ultimately wear you out. In addition, Pennington will be back this week and it couldn’t have come at a better time. If the season ended today, the Jets would be a wildcard, thus making this one as big a game for them as they’ve had all year. Raiders, Chiefs, Browns, Lions, 49ers, and Rams all have a brutal defense, however, none are as bad as these Texans and while the stats may not say so, you’ll get to see it first hand here. Play NY Jets –7 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
<o
></o><o
></o>The Rest of the Games
<o
></o>TAMPA BAY –2 over Atlanta<o
></o>Buccaneers return to Florida where they have been very solid. The Bucs have won three straight here and have not forgotten an earlier loss to this division foe. Atlanta has a cozy lead atop the division and we saw them nearly lose to bumbling Saints last week and bumbling Giants the previous week. Falcons are ripe for the pickins. Bucs should have a better record and have nobody to blame but the images in the mirror. This team should be in a strong playoff position but instead keep coming up lame. It’s for that reason we’re backing off but a convincing win would not surprise us. Play Tampa Bay –2 (No bets).
<o
></o>Cincinnati +7 over BALTIMORE<o
></o>Just too difficult to spot a converted touchdown with Ravens inefficient passing game. Can’t expect Carson Palmer and Bengals to get 58 like they did last week (they won’t give up 48 either) but Palmer did manage to throw for nearly 300 yards in first meeting with Baltimore. Similar effort with fewer mistakes gets a cover here and quite possibly a win. You get the feeling watching Palmer that he’s going to make a big name for himself real soon and with each passing week the Bengals are becoming more dangerous. This is a team that others would rather see miss the playoffs. Baltimore’s defense among the very best but no defense can keep overcoming an offense as anemic as this one. Play Cincinnati +7 (No bets).
<o
></o>PHILADELPHIA –6 over Green Bay<o
></o>Packers could be in for rude awakening after facing a bunch of marshmallows for past several weeks. They leave Lambeau off Monday night win only to find themselves in a very difficult setting against high-flying Eagles. Even with easy schedule, Green Bay still a minus 10 on turnovers compared to Philly’s plus 12. Still, the Packers are hot and unlike most, we’re just not convinced that the Eagles are as good as advertised. We’ll wait for another spot to go against Philly because once again, they find themselves in a very favorable spot here. Pack has been too high for too long. Play Philadelphia –6 (No bets).
<o
></o>Arizona +6 over DETROIT<o
></o>The Cardinals are changing quarterbacks more often than the Diamondbacks change managers. Even with a first-time starter getting the call for Arizona, we cannot bring ourselves to spot this many points with a 4-7 Detroit squad. Lion’s offense has relied on Eddie Drummond recently and he’s now gone for year. We’ve said it a million times over and it’s worth repeating again; spotting points with bad teams is just bad strategy and seldom works out well. Play Arizona +6 (No bets).
<o
></o>Kansas City pick over OAKLAND<o
></o>Big win on Monday night does nothing to convince us that the Raiders have found some life, although they do lead the league in some categories. For instance, they lead the league in stupid penalties, they lead the league in getting blown out and they lead the league in being hated by more towns then anyone else. The Raiders figure to have a letdown, if that is at all possible, after winning their Super Bowl with victory in Denver last weekend. While Oakland will be facing Kansas City without Priest Holmes, the Chiefs still have too much firepower for this bottom ranked defense. Play Kansas City –1.10 (No bets).
<o
></o>CLEVELAND +10½ over New England<o
></o>Extremely difficult to make a case for these stumbling Browns, especially against champs but nevertheless we’re going to lean that way. Butch Davis finally out of the picture and that should have this previously uptight franchise breathing a sigh of relief. Pats can relax a bit here sitting on a 10-1 record with home game against Bengals on deck and then road games in Miami and Jets. Loosey-goosey home team taking big points always attractive. Play Cleveland +10½ (No bets).
<o
></o>Minnesota –7½ over CHICAGO<o
></o>The Bears just not equipped to compete offensively as quarterback position has been shabby all season long. Chicago hung in for a while with gritty defense but that ended when Brian Urlacher was knocked out of action. Still, we urge you to proceed with caution here as laying road points in division is seldom a good idea and you won’t find many backing the Panda’s here. We just can’t make a case for them otherwise we would. Vikes a horrible road favorite and as a result of all that we mentioned, we want no part of this game. You ought not waste too much time on this one. Play Minnesota –7½ (No bets).
<o
></o>Buffalo –3½ over MIAMI<o
></o>Miami happy to be home after couple of games on west coast but this is no easy assignment. If Miami ran for only 49 yards against the Niners and just 69 against Seahawks, how can they expect to have any success against Bills 4th ranked run defense. Buffalo on the rise, having won and covered four of past five and have looked rather impressive in doing so. Still, there are some red flags here. First, the line appears soft and may have been designed that way to attract Buffalo money. Do you know anyone that likes Miami? Secondly, Drew Bledsoe on the road is as ugly as Jason Giambi off steroids. On paper, Bills should roll, you don’t need us to tell you that. The next question is why aren’t the Bills a six point favorite here. Better answer that one before you wager. Looks like the sucker play of the week to us. Proceed with caution. Play Buffalo –3½ (No bets).
<o
></o>ST. LOUIS –11 over San Francisco<o
></o>The Niners are to football what Etch-A-Sketch is to art. This double-digit point-spread is in no way flattering to the Rams. It just emphasizes the ineptitude of this once proud San Francisco squad. The 49ers have compiled a puny 30 points in their last four road games and have only the end of the year to look forward to. Rams need to blow out someone and Mike Martz can feel like a genius in his own mind after this one is in the books. Rams a sick bunch but the Niners are sicker. If anyone else was coaching this group we’d lay the 11 but Martz will likely try a fake field goal with a 21-point lead, miss it and instill some fire in the 49ers. Maybe. Play St. Louis –11 (No bets).
<o
></o>Carolina +1½ over NEW ORLEANS<o
></o>Anytime you have to spot points with a 31<SUP>st</SUP> ranked defense, it’s a problem. That problem gets amplified when facing a feisty underdog such as these Panthers who have failed just twice in previous 14 attempts when taking back points. Don’t expect much out of the Saints, this is a team that has a habit of hitting its backers over the head with a lead bat every time they’re expected to perform. Saints as bad a favorite as any and have to be considered the least trustworthy team of all time. Panthers come to play every week and that’s good enough for us. Play Carolina +1½ (No bets).
<o
></o>JACKSONVILLE +3 over Pittsburgh<o
></o>Jags get their first national TV appearance and they should be ready for a Pittsburgh team that continues to win but appears to be laboring somewhat. Plaxico Burress’ absence clearly affects the Steelers offensively and if he misses a second straight week, the Jacksonville defense can lead the way to an upset. Another case of a line appearing to be soft and another case of paying a premium when wagering on a popular team especially when said team is featured in Sunday prime time affair. Play Jacksonville +3 (No bets).
