VOR...I know we don't have much to go on right now with either Cincy or OSU. But a frriend was telling me today that Cincy's first opponent Rutgers just isn't a very good football team right now. Howard moved up and down the field for about 2.5 quarters on the Rutgers defense the other night. Rutgers is starting this season out like they did last season. So I'm not sure the Cincy win over them was as good as it looked. I still think there are a lot of question marks on the Cincy defense. So I'm not real sure how they'll perform against a better offense than they faced at Rutgers.
Initially I knew the sharps will be on FSU, the number will be driven down, as it has. Now as to the game I think FSU pass defense is in disarray and can only win by:
A) Hall having a poor game.
Note: He has shown no signs of playing poorly thus far. Can it happen? Naturally
B) FSU playing a flawless game. No turnovers, limited penalties
C) Using there speed on offense via Ponder running, misdirection, etc. in key moments with proper execution.
I've seen and know Miami well and BYU at this point of the season is a better team than the Canes.
Bottom line: I pass unless I read something compelling or have an epiphany. All of which is unlikely.
Remember guys there's 4 keys to handicapping:
Value
Perception
Match ups
Spot
All in order of importance. There's only one way to beat the man and we can't do it by simple math, figuring out who wins the battle of the trenches, what the public perceives, and if a team is coming of a emotional win or loss. It takes all of these factors not just one, plus intuition to really capture success.
I myself am prone to mistake so by no stretch have I perfected my craft, though I feel I'm close.
Plays are 4 days away
Value
Perception
Match ups
Spot
All in order of importance. There's only one way to beat the man and we can't do it by simple math, figuring out who wins the battle of the trenches, what the public perceives, and if a team is coming of a emotional win or loss. It takes all of these factors not just one, plus intuition to really capture success.
I myself am prone to mistake so by no stretch have I perfected my craft, though I feel I'm close.
Plays are 4 days away
Louisville on third downs against Indiana State, the team allowed the Sycamores to convert 7 of 16 third-down chances, while making just one of nine.
Quarterback Justin Burke started the game 1-8
Kentucky should win by double figures here, hoping they don't so maybe just maybe I'll go ahead and proceed with a bet against Florida if they were to cover.
Quarterback Justin Burke started the game 1-8
Kentucky should win by double figures here, hoping they don't so maybe just maybe I'll go ahead and proceed with a bet against Florida if they were to cover.
Don't like BC as most do, pass defense to me is still very suspect and they may be missing there captain on defense yet again this week. Also I rather have Parker over whoever BC puts out there. Clemson stout D-Line will force BC QB's to beat them. I'm passing here unless I see something compelling later this week.
More notes on present and future match ups, play on teams, etc.
-Miami matches up well against VTech, Clemson, Wake, and UNC this season (not counting cupcakes). Hope they don't cover against Tech Thursday as we should see some value with those 4 games. Expect no worse than 2-2 ATS there.
-North Carolina and especially Wake are fade on teams.
-Clemson, Miami, and BC are three teams that will get looks from me to play on.
-UAB, So. Miss, Houston, and Tulsa (in this order at this point) will get looks from me this season. Also looking hard into a few more teams here to fade.
-Belloti stepping down for Kelly has been an utter mess. Kelly should go upstairs and graciously give back his clipboard.
-Stanford, Arizona, and Washington will have some value and should be decent ATS teams this season. Looking hard at these teams as I like what I'm seeing for the most part.
-CAL is really good but as with USC value will be virtually non existent so spots (and favorable match ups) need to be chosen wisely.
-Kentucky, Arkansas, and Auburn (in this order) are the 3 value teams in the SEC. Something I knew coming into the season.
-Ole Miss is a fade team so is GA though that window of value is closing quickly. Though with Cox we can always keep it unlocked.
-Kansas seems to be for real or are they. No matter I see some decent spots like every game after OKL (especially if they don't cover) starting with the Tech game. Reesing is the best player NOBODY TALKS in this country, thanks mostly to the Tebow/Mccoy/Barkley a$$ lickers in ESPN.
-Tech secondary will cost them covers this season probably starting this Saturday
-Keeping a close eye on A&M
-Army show some signs the first two weeks of becoming a decent ATS dark horse. Watching them closely
-FIU is much improved and should be a decent play on team, especially in conference. Also looking into Arky State.
-Brown and rush D is still solid in WVU though one has to keep a close eye out on Stewart's inability to handle the team. Pitt more solid than given credit but Stull is a poor mans Shaun Glennon (and thats a compliment). Cinci D is untested and will be exposed against teams like Oregon State (leaning on State at the moment), WVU, USF, Fresno State, and by possibly the dork named Paulus. Expect high scoring affairs with WVU, Freson especially.
-Paulus is more likely to fail than succeed so be careful with your money.
-Despite the loss I really UNLV out in Mountain West, the 2nd string kid Clausen showed me a lot against the Beavers. While BYU will have little to no value this is the one team to follow.
-Big 10 is an utter mess as usual. Like the kid Forcier hence the Michigan bet this past week and I think there defense is better than the final score indicates, buckeyes beware overtime Rich Rod is here. betting against or on ILL gives me diarrhea, Minnesota offense are chronic underachievers, not sold on Iowa and will fade them more than I'll play on them, something smells in Happy Valley and it ain't Joe Pa, Purdue is much better than I thought (though Oregon is much worse than I anticipated) kid Bolden is special and I'll be looking into playing on them in conference, Indiana and Wisconsin are two teams I'm eyeing closely as I see spots to fade/play them.
-The MAC gives me the sh!ts but I'm spending all Thursday studying all the turds.
-Miami matches up well against VTech, Clemson, Wake, and UNC this season (not counting cupcakes). Hope they don't cover against Tech Thursday as we should see some value with those 4 games. Expect no worse than 2-2 ATS there.
-North Carolina and especially Wake are fade on teams.
-Clemson, Miami, and BC are three teams that will get looks from me to play on.
-UAB, So. Miss, Houston, and Tulsa (in this order at this point) will get looks from me this season. Also looking hard into a few more teams here to fade.
-Belloti stepping down for Kelly has been an utter mess. Kelly should go upstairs and graciously give back his clipboard.
-Stanford, Arizona, and Washington will have some value and should be decent ATS teams this season. Looking hard at these teams as I like what I'm seeing for the most part.
-CAL is really good but as with USC value will be virtually non existent so spots (and favorable match ups) need to be chosen wisely.
-Kentucky, Arkansas, and Auburn (in this order) are the 3 value teams in the SEC. Something I knew coming into the season.
-Ole Miss is a fade team so is GA though that window of value is closing quickly. Though with Cox we can always keep it unlocked.
-Kansas seems to be for real or are they. No matter I see some decent spots like every game after OKL (especially if they don't cover) starting with the Tech game. Reesing is the best player NOBODY TALKS in this country, thanks mostly to the Tebow/Mccoy/Barkley a$$ lickers in ESPN.
-Tech secondary will cost them covers this season probably starting this Saturday
-Keeping a close eye on A&M
-Army show some signs the first two weeks of becoming a decent ATS dark horse. Watching them closely
-FIU is much improved and should be a decent play on team, especially in conference. Also looking into Arky State.
-Brown and rush D is still solid in WVU though one has to keep a close eye out on Stewart's inability to handle the team. Pitt more solid than given credit but Stull is a poor mans Shaun Glennon (and thats a compliment). Cinci D is untested and will be exposed against teams like Oregon State (leaning on State at the moment), WVU, USF, Fresno State, and by possibly the dork named Paulus. Expect high scoring affairs with WVU, Freson especially.
-Paulus is more likely to fail than succeed so be careful with your money.
-Despite the loss I really UNLV out in Mountain West, the 2nd string kid Clausen showed me a lot against the Beavers. While BYU will have little to no value this is the one team to follow.
-Big 10 is an utter mess as usual. Like the kid Forcier hence the Michigan bet this past week and I think there defense is better than the final score indicates, buckeyes beware overtime Rich Rod is here. betting against or on ILL gives me diarrhea, Minnesota offense are chronic underachievers, not sold on Iowa and will fade them more than I'll play on them, something smells in Happy Valley and it ain't Joe Pa, Purdue is much better than I thought (though Oregon is much worse than I anticipated) kid Bolden is special and I'll be looking into playing on them in conference, Indiana and Wisconsin are two teams I'm eyeing closely as I see spots to fade/play them.
-The MAC gives me the sh!ts but I'm spending all Thursday studying all the turds.
Heres some tips on how to succeed in gambling:
A) Don't pay attention to the majority of the things you hear on the idiot box as most of its b.s., hype, and with the exception of maybe Herbie a bunch of dipsh!ts that failed at what they did for a living starting with Jim Donnan.
B) Be your own master not a follower. Most group thinkers follow someone blindly and that for the most part is the reason behind our failed nation.
C) Money Management. Read this (posted in week 1):
I personally play my 2 unit plays at $500. In post #1 under bankroll I state that your biggest bet should be 3% max of your bankroll. Well I actually have a 25k bankroll which clearly exceeds the 17k needed. I make the majority of my plays with matchbook. So this is how my bankroll for each book looks like:
12k bankroll matchbook account, 4k in bookmaker, 3k 5Dimes, 2k Greek, 2k BetJamica and 2k in Bodog. Week by week if need be I adjust these bankrolls back to these numbers.
For someone whos tailing me and is a $200 2* unit player I recommend a 7k starting bankroll. If you can't afford a 7k you should not be betting $100 per unit period!
As you can see I use matchbook for around 50% of my wagers so for a 7k starting bankroll I suggest 3.5k bankroll with Matchbook, 1k Bookmaker, .75k 5dimes, .75k Greek, .75k Betjamica, .75k Bodog.
If you have 1k starting bankroll then you should play my 2* at $30 no more. Yes $30 thats it!!
If you don't understand bankroll or refuse to follow these suggestions honestly don't gamble. Also as I talked about in post #58 if you lack discipline again don't gamble. You will lose period!
Understanding the fundamental 4 handicapping tools: Value, Perception, Spot, and Matchups.
1) Value: Teams like UF/USC=no value
Does this mean that you should never bet on these teams? NO
Now if UF lets say meet 2 out of the 4 handicapping tools I use (likely to be Spot and Matchup as Perception and Value are out the door) I personally can't bet them higher than 1*. Why?
Well teams with value lets say Kentucky/Arkansas to use the SEC as an example as most people are familiar with teh conference. If Kentucky were to not cover this week and UF were to then we probably have 3 out of the 4 tools check out with a good enough match up to make me feel comfortable enough to bet them against the gators. Makes sense? Now will I bet 2* on Kentucky vs UF? Do I look a b!tch as Samuel J. stated in Pulp Fiction I think not.
2)Perception: The ever popular perception. This is as simple as a can of refried beans. A team like Army or North Texas have low/poor perception while a team like USC/Cal have high. What happens is in effect value is lost, etc. This is key as teams are never as bad or as good as they seem. My 9 2* plays this past week all met this criteria and 90%+ of the time do so.
3) Spot: Good or bad a spot is critical in handicapping a game. Some handicappers even use this tool exclusively and this I completely disagree with. Spot is only good if we have a favorable match up and at least an ounce of value.
4) Match ups: This is when you need to really delve into the core of the teams. You have the cross all the I's and T's here. Coaching, QB/WR/TE vs secondary, OL vs pass pressure, Run blockers vs run cloggers, ST, etc. If you don't have the time or ability to visualize a game then I suggest tailing one of our very own handicappers here at the RX.
Back tomorrow
A) Don't pay attention to the majority of the things you hear on the idiot box as most of its b.s., hype, and with the exception of maybe Herbie a bunch of dipsh!ts that failed at what they did for a living starting with Jim Donnan.
B) Be your own master not a follower. Most group thinkers follow someone blindly and that for the most part is the reason behind our failed nation.
C) Money Management. Read this (posted in week 1):
I personally play my 2 unit plays at $500. In post #1 under bankroll I state that your biggest bet should be 3% max of your bankroll. Well I actually have a 25k bankroll which clearly exceeds the 17k needed. I make the majority of my plays with matchbook. So this is how my bankroll for each book looks like:
12k bankroll matchbook account, 4k in bookmaker, 3k 5Dimes, 2k Greek, 2k BetJamica and 2k in Bodog. Week by week if need be I adjust these bankrolls back to these numbers.
For someone whos tailing me and is a $200 2* unit player I recommend a 7k starting bankroll. If you can't afford a 7k you should not be betting $100 per unit period!
As you can see I use matchbook for around 50% of my wagers so for a 7k starting bankroll I suggest 3.5k bankroll with Matchbook, 1k Bookmaker, .75k 5dimes, .75k Greek, .75k Betjamica, .75k Bodog.
If you have 1k starting bankroll then you should play my 2* at $30 no more. Yes $30 thats it!!
If you don't understand bankroll or refuse to follow these suggestions honestly don't gamble. Also as I talked about in post #58 if you lack discipline again don't gamble. You will lose period!
Understanding the fundamental 4 handicapping tools: Value, Perception, Spot, and Matchups.
1) Value: Teams like UF/USC=no value
Does this mean that you should never bet on these teams? NO
Now if UF lets say meet 2 out of the 4 handicapping tools I use (likely to be Spot and Matchup as Perception and Value are out the door) I personally can't bet them higher than 1*. Why?
Well teams with value lets say Kentucky/Arkansas to use the SEC as an example as most people are familiar with teh conference. If Kentucky were to not cover this week and UF were to then we probably have 3 out of the 4 tools check out with a good enough match up to make me feel comfortable enough to bet them against the gators. Makes sense? Now will I bet 2* on Kentucky vs UF? Do I look a b!tch as Samuel J. stated in Pulp Fiction I think not.
2)Perception: The ever popular perception. This is as simple as a can of refried beans. A team like Army or North Texas have low/poor perception while a team like USC/Cal have high. What happens is in effect value is lost, etc. This is key as teams are never as bad or as good as they seem. My 9 2* plays this past week all met this criteria and 90%+ of the time do so.
3) Spot: Good or bad a spot is critical in handicapping a game. Some handicappers even use this tool exclusively and this I completely disagree with. Spot is only good if we have a favorable match up and at least an ounce of value.
4) Match ups: This is when you need to really delve into the core of the teams. You have the cross all the I's and T's here. Coaching, QB/WR/TE vs secondary, OL vs pass pressure, Run blockers vs run cloggers, ST, etc. If you don't have the time or ability to visualize a game then I suggest tailing one of our very own handicappers here at the RX.
Back tomorrow
