Sharp Bowl Plays for 2008-2009 (174-125-7 $6,561.43)

[VoiceofReason101]

I want to say on more thing to those that may be tailing. I'm still very confident in the plays I posted and have money invested in. Don't think for one moment that I'm scared or simply reluctant to lose a chunk of my bankroll. I just have made some adjustments due to what I've seen. Arizona and Navy as most of you witnessed were the right side. I still expect to win more than I lose. I have a system that I brought from the NFL which has translated well. Its a math system combined with logic, match ups, spots, and angles. I think the more time I spend handicapping this sport the better I'll get. Like I stated in my prior post I'm still learning the college landscape of which is much larger than that of the NFL. Some teams like Pitt I know extremely well and some teams like Southern Miss I don't. For example I can tell you right now that Pitt even without having to face the Rodgers kids will have a hard time containing a decent passing attack. Oregon State missing Rodgers hurts plus Moveau may not be 100% so that's my reasoning behind my downgrade. While I still think Moveau or Canfield will have some success against a porous Pitt secondary I still can't back a team big going into a game without two of their play makers.


Bottom line if you tail I implore you keep these bowl wagers at a small percentage in respect to your bankroll. Many handicappers believe that betting bowl games larger than regular season games is justifiable. I just don't personally buy that at the present moment. Maybe a year or two from now once I have a great handle on this sport I'll view things differently.

Well guys hope you all made some profit from today's AU game.

 

[silver7]

If You Were

yeah my ex-girlfriend works at the dominoes by my house. I get free pizza whenever I want. Its a product of being a good lover





:drink:

"She" wouldn't be an "X"!! :nohead: Merry XMas, wish you luck.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

"She" wouldn't be an "X"!! :nohead: Merry XMas, wish you luck.

I actually haven't had sex with her in almost a year. Simply saying I was a good lover and she evidently still wants to hang around just in case I guess. The irony is my current girlfriend knows her since high school and she does not mind her bringing the pizzas (she actually gets giddy). What can I say I go out with some twisted females. Then again I'm not exactly wired like most people either.


Thanks for the well wishes. Have a good one

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Just got tickets for the BCS tailgate party. I get to see All American Rejects yippy!! My girlfriend absolutely hates them and so do I. Think my x girlfriend likes them so I should probably give it to her that way she can feed Tyson (lead singer for those not in the know) some pizza.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

I agree! Good luck on a great bowl season!

Its kind of weird for me because my x makes the pizza so when its in the prepping stage and her name comes up in the tracker. I start thinking bad stuff like is she putting insects underneath the cheese, spitting on it, or wiping the dough on her cun!. I mean how would you feel to be making a pizza for your x and some girl hes fcuking. You know what come to think of it I should really reconsider this whole Arrangement.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

National Championship Fanfest

Any of you that lives in the Miami area I'll be (plus girlfriend and friends) at the Bicentennial Park on January 7, 2009 at 3pm until 9pm. I'll be helping out behind the scenes before it starts but will be amongst the crowd around 3pm. Its only $20 to attend which is pretty good deal considering you'll get to enjoy 6 hours of music headlined by the All American Rejects at 8pm. There will also be food, drinks, interactive games, celebrities, Oklahoma/UF team bands, and cheerleaders.

Tickets can be purchased online at Ticketmaster.com

Send me a PM if your interested in going.

Should be fun (except that All American Rejects part).

:toast:

 

[liftnbet]

all american rejects are awsome!!!! haha

btw vor i took one of the biggest losses/beatings by picking byu.. i loved arizona since the line came out, and even more when you were on them.. just small things like ranked vs unranked getting points should have said enough to me.. and money managemnt flew out the window.. im reallly pissed bc i worked so hard to make this money and to give it almost all back on one play is a dagger through the heart.. I am the dumbass to blame.. whatever.. i never do teasers but i put my last 400 on a teaser today and luckily it hit.. im still furious and kind of in a jam.. i almost put it all on troy tonight but only put 200.. i dont know why really- guess a quick fix which im sure will end up biting me in the ass.. we shall see.. also wanted to say thanks for your picks and always updating.. u da man

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Nobody wants to go and see AAR. Don't blame you guys.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Btd: +0.2*

3* Ole Miss +7 -110: What I like: Value, Best D-Line Tech has faced all season, solid O-Line, underrated passing attack, and solid run game. My concerns: Tech's passing game.
1.5* Texas Tech -4.5 -101
2* Georgia Tech -2.5 -110: What I like: Value, better coach, more efficient offense and defense. Concerns: TO's and health
.7* LSU still waiting for better juice on +4
2* Oregon +3.5 -110: Why I like it: Chip's rushing attack vs Pokes vulnerable front 7. Concerns: Defense
.2* Pokes -3 +100 (Matchbook)
1.5* TCU -1.5 -110 (Greek): Why I like it: Slight advantages on Offense, defense, and coaching. Why I don't: Boise has a slightly better pass D and motivation.
1.5* Ball State -2.5 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: Better QB and Defense Why I don't: Tulsa's offense
.8* Tulsa +2.5 -101 (downgraded): Hokes departure
1* GA -6 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: Better coach, QB, and wideouts. Why I don't: GA Defense
.3* Michigan State +7.5 -101 (Matchbook)
1* Iowa -3 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: Better defense and running game Why I don't: Steve Spurrier
1* BC -3 (BM): Why I like it: Coaching, rush defense, and Vandy's offense Why I don't: BC QB play
1* Nebraska +3 -110 (Betonline) (Greek has it at -115) Why I like it: Ganz vs Clemson's secondary. Nebraska's offensive line vs Clemson's O-Line Why I don't like: Davis/Spiller and Clemson's underrated rush defense
.5* Oregon State -3 -105 (Greek): Why I like it: Moveau or Canfield over Stull, coaching, and rested front 4. Why I don't: Shady, Shady, Shady
.5* Oregon State -3 +102 (Matchbook)
.65* Pitt +3 -115 (downgraded)
.5* Penn State +10.5 -110 (Bookmaker) Why I like it: Value, balanced offense to expose USC slightly overrated defense, and solid enough D Why I don't: location and USC D
.5* UNC -1 +104 (Matchbook): Why I like it: location, solid run defense, coaching, and healthy Yates Why I don't: Pat White and UNC's lack of a great running game.
.25* Miami +7.5 +104 (Matchbook)
.25* Nevada -1.5 -110 (WSEX)
.15* FAU +7 -123 (Matchbook)
.25* FSU -4.5 -110 (Greek): Why I like it: talent, speed, better skill players, and solid rush defense Why I don't: Its FSU
.25* Hawaii -1.5 -110 (Greek): Why I like it: Its ND Why I don't: Its Hawaii
.10* Notre Dame -1.5 (buying back)

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Reducing all my 3*-2* plays to 1.5* or 1.3*
Also reducing all my 1* plays to .7*



As explained in previous posts no bowl games merit a 2* play for me. Good news is I now have a couple decent looking middle opportunities out there. So not all was lost =]

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Added a play and continued with my plan to attempt middles/downgrade

3* Ole Miss +7 -110: What I like: Value, Best D-Line Tech has faced all season, solid O-Line, underrated passing attack, and solid run game. My concerns: Tech's passing game.
1.5* Texas Tech -4.5 -101
2* Georgia Tech -2.5 -110: What I like: Value, better coach, more efficient offense and defense. Concerns: TO's and health
.7* LSU +3.5 +103 (Matchbook)
2* Oregon +3.5 -110: Why I like it: Chip's rushing attack vs Pokes vulnerable front 7. Concerns: Defense
.7* Pokes -3 +100 (Matchbook)
1.5* TCU -1.5 -110 (Greek): Why I like it: Slight advantages on Offense, defense, and coaching. Why I don't: Boise has a slightly better pass D and motivation.
1.5* Ball State -2.5 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: Better QB and Defense Why I don't: Tulsa's offense
.8* Tulsa +2.5 -101 (downgraded)
1* Iowa -3 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: Better defense and running game Why I don't: Steve Spurrier
1* BC -3 -110 (BM): Why I like it: Coaching, rush defense, and Vandy's offense Why I don't: BC QB play
1* Nebraska +3 -110 (Betonline) Why I like it: Ganz vs Clemson's secondary. Nebraska's offensive line vs Clemson's O-Line Why I don't like: Davis/Spiller and Clemson's underrated rush defense
1* GA -6 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: Better coach, QB, and wideouts. Why I don't: GA Defense
.3* Michigan State +7.5 -101 (Matchbook)
.5* UNC -1 +104 (Matchbook): Why I like it: location, solid run defense, coaching, and healthy Yates Why I don't: Pat White and UNC's lack of a great running game..
.5* Penn State +10.5 -110 (Bookmaker) Why I like it: Value, balanced offense to expose USC slightly overrated defense, and solid enough D Why I don't: location and USC D
.15* USC -9 -101 (Matchbook): Middle attempt
.5* Oregon State -3 -105 (Greek): Why I like it: Moveau or Canfield over Stull, coaching, and rested front 4. Why I don't: Shady, Shady, Shady
.5* Oregon State -3 +102 (Matchbook)
.65* Pitt +3 -115 (downgraded)
.25* Miami +7.5 +104 (Matchbook)
.25* Nevada -1.5 -110 (WSEX)
.15* FAU +7 -123 (Matchbook)
.25* FSU -4.5 -110 (Greek): Why I like it: talent, speed, better skill players, and solid rush defense Why I don't: Its FSU
.10* Wisconsin +5.5 -104 (Matchbook)
.25* Hawaii -1.5 -110 (Greek): Why I like it: Its ND Why I don't: Its Hawaii
.10* Notre Dame -1.5 (buying back)
.10* Oklahoma +3 +112 (Matchbook)

 

[AlwaysKeen]

voiceofreason,

excellent post regarding bowl games...I have learned after many years to do the same thing, tread lightly in them, for all of the reasons you have mentioned...you're picks AND money management are key reasons to your success...keep up the good work my friend...I'm still sick over DeAndre Brown breaking his leg last night, I hope that he makes a full recovery...glad Southern Miss +4.5 cashed though...and yes it was a shit game...

 

[liftnbet]

lets go horned frogs!!!!!!!!!

 

[VoiceofReason101]

all american rejects are awsome!!!! haha

btw vor i took one of the biggest losses/beatings by picking byu.. i loved arizona since the line came out, and even more when you were on them.. just small things like ranked vs unranked getting points should have said enough to me.. and money managemnt flew out the window.. im reallly pissed bc i worked so hard to make this money and to give it almost all back on one play is a dagger through the heart.. I am the dumbass to blame.. whatever.. i never do teasers but i put my last 400 on a teaser today and luckily it hit.. im still furious and kind of in a jam.. i almost put it all on troy tonight but only put 200.. i dont know why really- guess a quick fix which im sure will end up biting me in the ass.. we shall see.. also wanted to say thanks for your picks and always updating.. u da man

If I was 17 and single I would happily go to one of their concerts with the mere intent to attain loose women. Frankly would have prefer Matchbox Twenty over them that's how much I think they suck :missingte

I just don't see why so many people liked BYU? There defense has been very unimpressive all year against good but not great offenses. TCU was able to throw the ball on them and I think some people overlooked that. You can argue Utah but I think Arizona was the best passing offense BYU would face this year. Arizona on the flip side played pretty good pass defense for the most part this year. I knew they would key and aggressively try to contain BYU's rushing attack by relying on their good secondary.

The last thing I liked about the game was the motivational factor of which is a pretty big element in capping bowl games. Arizona had not been to a bowl game in 10 years. All the articles I read prior to the game led me to believe that this team would be really up for this game. I think that showed throughout the game.

One thing I suggest is to manage your money wisely. Don't bet over your head and NEVER chase. Plenty of time to turns things around my friend. Hope that I'm able to help you along with that process.

GL

 

[VoiceofReason101]

voiceofreason,

excellent post regarding bowl games...I have learned after many years to do the same thing, tread lightly in them, for all of the reasons you have mentioned...you're picks AND money management are key reasons to your success...keep up the good work my friend...I'm still sick over DeAndre Brown breaking his leg last night, I hope that he makes a full recovery...glad Southern Miss +4.5 cashed though...and yes it was a shit game...

thank you, yes I just read the article and its quite concerning.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

lets go horned frogs!!!!!!!!!

looking forward to this game. 3rd best bowl IMHO (behind Texas Tech vs Ole Miss and Pokes vs Oregon)

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Silver lining

voiceofreason,

excellent post regarding bowl games...I have learned after many years to do the same thing, tread lightly in them, for all of the reasons you have mentioned...you're picks AND money management are key reasons to your success...keep up the good work my friend...I'm still sick over DeAndre Brown breaking his leg last night, I hope that he makes a full recovery...glad Southern Miss +4.5 cashed though...and yes it was a shit game...

Forgot to address DeAndre Brown injury. Here's the latest:

NEW ORLEANS -- After spending almost two years in Mississippi, I'd heard a lot about DeAndre Brown. He'd been hailed as a bigger Calvin Johnson. The other night here in New Orleans was the first night I've ever met him.
He is the biggest receiver I've ever seen in person. At first, I thought he was a defensive end, until Southern Miss coach Frank Wilson said "This is DeAndre." He looks like he could be a power forward. Apparently, just a few minutes earlier, Jeremy Shockey, of all people, along with another Saints teammate, had spotted Brown standing near the entrance of the Hilton hotel and offered some advice about how to stay out of trouble.
To a lot of folks, Brown is as close physically to a "can't-miss" as there might be in the NFL's eyes among college players. He is a legit 6-foot-6, 230 pounds and can run a 4.5 forty. Brown has eaten up double teams for much of this season. No first-year receiver had put up stats close to what Brown had done this year, with 66 catches for over 1,100 yards and 12 TDs. By the end of Sunday night, he figured to set every meaningful receiving record in USM history.
Seventy-five minutes before kickoff of Sunday night's New Orleans Bowl, Brown was playfully running patterns as tandems of student managers tried to cover him. Just then I got a text from a buddy who is an NFL scout. "I am excited to see DeAndre play!" A few clicks later, the scout joked, "Can we draft him right now?"
Five minutes into the game, Brown caught a pass for a nine-yard gain to set the school single-season receptions mark. Then, on the next USM drive with the Golden Eagles at the Troy 30-yard line, Brown broke free on a route near the left sideline. Quarterback Austin Davis lofted a pass, but just as Brown planted his left foot, it seemed to catch in the turf. He tumbled to the ground while trying to extend for the ball. Brown immediately began to clutch at his lower left leg, holding it up in the air as part of the leg dangled at an impossible angle. It was one of the more gruesome injuries you are likely to see, and you had to wonder: Is his story headed for a heartbreaking ending?
A cart immediately was rushed out as teammates and USM medical staff hovered over him before the freshman was driven off with the leg in an air cast. The crowd began chanting "De-An-dre! De-An-dre!" Brown was rushed to Tulane Medical Center, where he was diagnosed with a fractured left tibia.
USM went on to rally without its star to win 30-27 in overtime. Afterward, Tony Hughes, the USM assistant who had recruited Brown, remarked how bittersweet the victory was. "They only thing you can do when you see something like that is start praying," Hughes said. "It's so sad. He's such a good kid."
However, as shocking as it might sound after seeing such a horrific break, Brown might not miss a game in 2009. According to The (Jackson, Miss.) Clarion-Ledger, Brown was to undergo surgery Sunday night as soon as he arrived back in Hattiesburg.
"It's a clean break," USM orthopedic physician Lance Line told The Clarion-Ledger's Tyler Cleveland late Sunday night. "We're going to operate tonight in Hattiesburg, and he will definitely miss all of spring practice, but if everything goes perfectly the rehab should take about six months."
Desmond Johnson, a fellow USM freshman, suffered a similar break midway through his senior year of high school in 2007 when he shattered his tibia. Johnson had a rod inserted in his leg along with three pins and said he was 100 percent healed and cleared by doctors in March and was able to run sprints for his track team. "When something like that happens, it's the worst pain you've ever felt, and then you immediately think, 'I'm through,'" Johnson said outside the USM locker room Sunday night. "I'm going to try and call DeAndre on the bus ride home."

 

[CLefty]

Fell Asleep

Did I miss something? Initially Arizona Wildcats a 2* but now I don't see them as a play.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Terrible news for TCU backers (such as myself)

TCU will play without standout linebacker Robert Henson in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl on Tuesday night when No. 11 TCU faces No. 9 Boise State.

A source told ESPN's Joe Schad late Sunday that the player has been ruled academically ineligble.

Henson did not practice on Saturday and coach Gary Patterson indicated earlier Sunday that there was a chance Henson wouldn't be on the field against the Broncos.

When asked if Henson would play Patterson said, "I don't know about that yet, but there isn't anything wrong with him."

Henson, a senior from Longview, Texas, was a first-team All-Mountain West Conference selection this season, part of a TCU defense that ranked second in the country in total defense. Henson finished the season with 73 tackles and two interceptions in his first full season as a starter.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Did I miss something? Initially Arizona Wildcats a 2* but now I don't see them as a play.

You must be a bear cause the game ended over 60 hours ago. On a serious note I simply updated my card and record Clefty. Once the game concludes I typically update my record in the title and post my pending plays in the message section. I downgraded it personally though I know many followers played it for the initial strength posted. GL my friend. Try not to hibernate any further as the bowl season is officially in full swing. Starting with the froggies tonight.