Sharp Bowl Plays for 2008-2009 (174-125-7 $6,561.43)

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Quick write ups

3* Ole Miss +7 -110: What I like: Value, Best D-Line Tech has faced all season, solid O-Line, underrated passing attack, and solid run game. My concerns: Tech's passing game.
2* Arizona -3 -110: What I like: AZ has the superior pass defense with comparable passing offenses and better stable of RB's. My concerns: BYU crowd and weather.
2* Georgia Tech -2.5 -110: What I like Value, better coach, more efficient offense and defense. Concerns: TO's and health
2* Oregon +3.5 -110: Why I like it: Chip's rushing attack vs Pokes vulnerable front 7. Concerns: Defense
1.5* TCU -1.5 -110 (Greek): Why I like it: Slight advantages on Offense, defense, and coaching. Why I don't: Boise has a slightly better pass D and motivation.
1.5* Ball State -2.5 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: Better QB and Defense Why I don't: Tulsa's offense
1* Navy +3.5 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: beat them without Dobbs Why I don't: WF has the better D.
1* GA -6 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: Better coach, QB, and wideouts. Why I don't: GA Defense
1* Iowa -3 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: Better defense and running game Why I don't: Steve Spurrier
1* BC -3 (BM)
.5* Penn State +10.5 -110 (Bookmaker) Why I like it: Value, balanced offense to expose USC slightly overrated defense, and solid enough D Why I don't: location and USC D
.5* Oregon State -3 -105 (Greek): Why I like it: Moveau or Canfield over Stull, coaching, and rested front 4. Why I don't: Shady, Shady, Shady.
.5* UNC waiting for Matchbooks juice on this one: Why I like it: location, solid run defense, and good enough offense Why I don't: Pat White and UNC's lack of a great running game.
.25* FSU -4.5 -110 (Greek): Why I like it: talent, speed, better skill players, and solid rush defense Why I don't: Its FSU
.25* Hawaii -1.5 -110 (Greek): Why I like it: Its ND Why I don't: Its Hawaii
 

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5* UNC waiting for Matchbooks juice on this one: Why I like it: location, solid run defense, and good enough offense Why I don't: Pat White and UNC's lack of a great running game.

u forgot better coach way bettter coach
 

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Agree on that point...Bill Stewart is one of the worst coaches I've come across ESPECIALLY when it comes to clock & game management.
 
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5* UNC waiting for Matchbooks juice on this one: Why I like it: location, solid run defense, and good enough offense Why I don't: Pat White and UNC's lack of a great running game.

u forgot better coach way bettter coach


that goes without saying just trying to keep them short. I agree huge coaching mismatch :103631605
 

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Quuestion for you VOR

It looks like you had Nebraska as a play at -3 or less before the lines came out and now that they are actually + 3, you don't have them listed as a play. Am I missing something or what changed your mind?
 
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It looks like you had Nebraska as a play at -3 or less before the lines came out and now that they are actually + 3, you don't have them listed as a play. Am I missing something or what changed your mind?


Yes your quite rowdy I had them circled as a play the day before lines came out. Monday morning I actually reaccessed my initial instincts on this particular game. I want to take a little more time dissecting this intriguing match up. I want to attain as much information as my resources allows me to on this one.

Maybe I can pick your head a bit while I'm at it.

What are your personal thoughts on Nebraska's rush defense?

Lastly what are your thoughts on Nebraska's offensive line?

Thank you
 

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VOR, the NU rush defense was never really tested this year as the pass happy Big XII mostly throws. The D-Line progressed nicely during the year, Suh in the middle is a beast and Potter on the end is playing pretty well too. The LB's are still a concern but they get their best LB Dillard back at 100% for the bowl game. I think their run defense is a lot better than their pass defense and that they will like playing a more conventional offense a lot better than the spread no huddle offenses in the Big XII. The offense line is playing pretty well, they are 1st or 2nd in TOP and have really dominated that stat their last 5 games. In looking at the team stat rankings, Clemson does not seem that high in rush offense or pass offense. I think Clemson will have a harder time stopping NU than NU will have stopping Clemson. I really thought that NU would be favored by 2 or 3 so getting 3 seems pretty good to me. Good luck to you in all your bowl picks and have enjoyed reading your threads this year in college football this year.
 
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VOR, the NU rush defense was never really tested this year as the pass happy Big XII mostly throws. The D-Line progressed nicely during the year, Suh in the middle is a beast and Potter on the end is playing pretty well too. The LB's are still a concern but they get their best LB Dillard back at 100% for the bowl game. I think their run defense is a lot better than their pass defense and that they will like playing a more conventional offense a lot better than the spread no huddle offenses in the Big XII. The offense line is playing pretty well, they are 1st or 2nd in TOP and have really dominated that stat their last 5 games. In looking at the team stat rankings, Clemson does not seem that high in rush offense or pass offense. I think Clemson will have a harder time stopping NU than NU will have stopping Clemson. I really thought that NU would be favored by 2 or 3 so getting 3 seems pretty good to me. Good luck to you in all your bowl picks and have enjoyed reading your threads this year in college football this year.

The word untested is whats been lingering around my head since early Monday morning. After reviewing all the data and articles I feel Nebraska should be able to hold their own against the run. With the exception of Griffin they've done a decent job of containing rushing yards for the large part. Clemson does not rank that high in rush offense due to their porous offensive line while there passing struggles rests mostly on Harper's shoulders. Clemson has merely two real strengths and those are rush defense and RB. Not impending an aberration I completely concur that Nebraska's offense should have an easier time moving the ghastly (been watching some Brit films as of late) shaped ball than Clemson. In light of my findings I will now make a wager on the black shirts. Thank you as I always appreciate someone that has some knowledge on the topic seeing things similarly as I do. Your observations were spot on....GL
 
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3* Ole Miss +7 -110: What I like: Value, Best D-Line Tech has faced all season, solid O-Line, underrated passing attack, and solid run game. My concerns: Tech's passing game.
2* Arizona -3 -110: What I like: AZ has the superior pass defense with comparable passing offenses and better stable of RB's. My concerns: BYU crowd and weather.
2* Georgia Tech -2.5 -110: What I like: Value, better coach, more efficient offense and defense. Concerns: TO's and health
2* Oregon +3.5 -110: Why I like it: Chip's rushing attack vs Pokes vulnerable front 7. Concerns: Defense
1.5* TCU -1.5 -110 (Greek): Why I like it: Slight advantages on Offense, defense, and coaching. Why I don't: Boise has a slightly better pass D and motivation.
1.5* Ball State -2.5 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: Better QB and Defense Why I don't: Tulsa's offense
1* Navy +3.5 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: beat them without Dobbs Why I don't: WF has the better D.
1* GA -6 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: Better coach, QB, and wideouts. Why I don't: GA Defense
1* Iowa -3 -110 (Bookmaker): Why I like it: Better defense and running game Why I don't: Steve Spurrier
1* BC -3 (BM): Why I like it: Coaching, rush defense, and Vandy's offense Why I don't: BC QB play
1* Nebraska +3 -110 (Betonline) (Greek has it at -115) Why I like it: Ganz vs Clemson's secondary. Nebraska's offensive line vs Clemson's O-Line Why I don't like: Davis/Spiller and Clemson's underrated rush defense
.5* Penn State +10.5 -110 (Bookmaker) Why I like it: Value, balanced offense to expose USC slightly overrated defense, and solid enough D Why I don't: location and USC D
.5* Oregon State -3 -105 (Greek): Why I like it: Moveau or Canfield over Stull, coaching, and rested front 4. Why I don't: Shady, Shady, Shady
.5* UNC -1 +104 (Matchbook): Why I like it: location, solid run defense, coaching, and healthy Yates Why I don't: Pat White and UNC's lack of a great running game.
.25* FSU -4.5 -110 (Greek): Why I like it: talent, speed, better skill players, and solid rush defense Why I don't: Its FSU
.25* Hawaii -1.5 -110 (Greek): Why I like it: Its ND Why I don't: Its Hawaii



No more plays. Going to wait a few days until I decide on a Oregon State upgrade.
 

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The word untested is whats been lingering around my head since early Monday morning. After reviewing all the data and articles I feel Nebraska should be able to hold their own against the run. With the exception of Griffin they've done a decent job of containing rushing yards for the large part. Clemson does not rank that high in rush offense due to their porous offensive line while there passing struggles rests mostly on Harper's shoulders. Clemson has merely two real strengths and those are rush defense and RB. Not impending an aberration I completely concur that Nebraska's offense should have an easier time moving the ghastly (been watching some Brit films as of late) shaped ball than Clemson. In light of my findings I will now make a wager on the black shirts. Thank you as I always appreciate someone that has some knowledge on the topic seeing things similarly as I do. Your observations were spot on....GL


I just read this thread today and as i was reading i was going to comment on this one. I am a Nebraska student and jumped on it when i saw it at +3. Much like what was said before Suh is a player and Potter is really peaking as well. Nebraska's secondary sucks but Bo Peleni really has them cranking and I think that they can take care of the run.

Also, I'm not sure how much you consider this fact but you know Nebraska fans are ape sh*t crazy over husker football and they always travel very very well. I however will be watching the game in chicago because i am going there for the new year but Best of Luck to both of us!

you made the right play imo
 

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