Sharp Bowl Plays for 2008-2009 (174-125-7 $6,561.43)

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Quick Summary, thoughts on my bowl season thus far

Well barring defeat in every wager pending I'll finish up in the bowl season. That was my primary goal so I feel good about that. This is despite brutal beats with Navy, TCU, and downgrading all of my 2 and 3 unit wagers. 2/3* were Texas Tech, Oregon, Arizona, and GTech. All those plays hit with the exception of GTech. Had the Rodgers kids been healthy Oregon State would have also been a 2* play (possibly 3*). 2/3* plays have a 60% plus chance of hitting. When handicapping I factor in 5 critical factors and if 4 out of 5 check out it becomes a 2* play. If 5 out of 5 checks out then it's a rare 3* play. Ole Miss met all those qualifications hence the 3* play (that's before I downgraded this years bowl games naturally). I don't have the numbers in front of me but I've managed to hit close to hit over 62% of my 2 unit wagers this season. In the NFL the number is over 65%.

Next year I expect even greener pastures as I'm still learning the college landscape. There are still certain programs that I don't have a great feel for but once I do expect better results.


Had a few typos that needed fixing (probably missed a few haha) :103631605


Get back to you guys in a bit as I have some football to watch
 

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Congrats bud, been solid all year! Thanks again for your advice for my bowl pool. Here were your leans:
WEST VIRGINIA 1 ½ NORTH CAROLINA UNC medium
FLORIDA ST. 5 ½ WISCONSIN FSU semi medium
CALIFORNIA 8 ½ MIAMI Miami semi medium
LOUSIANA TECH PICKEM N. ILLINOIS LA Tech medium
RUTGERS 7 ½ N.C. STATE N.C. State small
MISSOURI 12 ½ NORTHWESTERN NW extra small
NEVADA 2 ½ MARYLAND NEVADA Medium
RICE 2 ½ WESTERN MICHIGAN RICE SMALL
OKLAHOMA ST. 3 ½ OREGON Oregon Big
HOUSTON 3 ½ AIR FORCE Houston extra extra small
OREGON ST. 2 ½ PITTSBURGH Oregon State small
BC 3 ½ VANDERBILT BC small
KANSAS 9 ½ MINNESOTA KU extra small
GEORGIA TECH 4 ½ LSU GTECH small
IOWA 3 ½ SOUTH CAROLINA Iowa Small
GATOR CLEMSON 2 ½ NEBRASKA NEB SMALL
CAPITAL ONE GEORGIA 7 ½ MICHIGAN ST. GA SEMI medium
ROSE 35 USC 9 ½ PENN ST. PSU Small
ORANGE CINCINNATI 2 ½ VIRGINIA TECH Cinci small
COTTON TEXAS TECH 4 ½ MISSISSIPPI Ole Miss big
LIBERTY EAST CAROLINA 2 ½ KENTUCKY ECU small
SUGAR ALABAMA 10 ½ UTAH BAMA extra small
INTERNATION CONNECTICUT 4 ½ BUFFALO UCONN extra small
FIESTA TEXAS 8 ½ OHIO ST. OSU extra small
GMAC BALL ST. 2 ½ TULSA Ball State medium
JAN 8 BCS CHAMP FLORIDA 3 ½ OKLAHOMA OKL small

You're 15-5 at this point by my count. Should have gone with all your leans.
 
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Congrats bud, been solid all year! Thanks again for your advice for my bowl pool. Here were your leans:
WEST VIRGINIA 1 ½ NORTH CAROLINA UNC medium 0-1
FLORIDA ST. 5 ½ WISCONSIN FSU semi medium 1-1
CALIFORNIA 8 ½ MIAMI Miami semi medium 2-1
LOUSIANA TECH PICKEM N. ILLINOIS LA Tech medium 3-1
RUTGERS 7 ½ N.C. STATE N.C. State small 4-1 (I flip flopped on this game) :ohno:
MISSOURI 12 ½ NORTHWESTERN NW extra small 5-1
NEVADA 2 ½ MARYLAND NEVADA Medium 6-1
RICE 2 ½ WESTERN MICHIGAN RICE SMALL 7-1
OKLAHOMA ST. 3 ½ OREGON Oregon Big 8-1
HOUSTON 3 ½ AIR FORCE Houston extra extra small 9-1 (another game I flip flopped but ended up hitting 1st half) :103631605
OREGON ST. 2 ½ PITTSBURGH Oregon State small 10-1
BC 3 ½ VANDERBILT BC small 10-2
KANSAS 9 ½ MINNESOTA KU extra small 11-2
GEORGIA TECH 4 ½ LSU GTECH small 11-3
IOWA 3 ½ SOUTH CAROLINA Iowa Small 12-3
GATOR CLEMSON 2 ½ NEBRASKA NEB SMALL 13-3
CAPITAL ONE GEORGIA 7 ½ MICHIGAN ST. GA SEMI medium 14-3
ROSE 35 USC 9 ½ PENN ST. PSU Small 14-4
ORANGE CINCINNATI 2 ½ VIRGINIA TECH Cinci small 14-5
COTTON TEXAS TECH 4 ½ MISSISSIPPI Ole Miss big 15-5
LIBERTY EAST CAROLINA 2 ½ KENTUCKY ECU small 15-6
SUGAR ALABAMA 10 ½ UTAH BAMA extra small
INTERNATION CONNECTICUT 4 ½ BUFFALO UCONN extra small
FIESTA TEXAS 8 ½ OHIO ST. OSU extra small
GMAC BALL ST. 2 ½ TULSA Ball State medium
JAN 8 BCS CHAMP FLORIDA 3 ½ OKLAHOMA OKL small

You're 15-5 at this point by my count. Should have gone with all your leans.


Appreciate you posting this for me. I'll keep it for my records. Yeah wanted to make sure on which games I flip flopped on. Apparently only cost me with Rutgers as AF was a 1st half/2nd half play which the 1st half hit. Thanks my friend. 15-6 isn't too shabby I guess. Really like the under in tomorrows game :103631605
 
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Great season VOR! I really appreciated your capping skills this year! I respect you for the fact that you have such great discipline that I'm really working on. You really never push for action as your bowl card was set early. Congratulations again and let's have a good NFL playoffs :toast:


I truly believe if one lacks discipline gambling is not for you. Thank your for the kinds words :103631605
 
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Caution I'm still a year away from becoming decent with these:

.10* UCONN/Buffalo U 52 -120 (Greek)
.10* UCONN/Buffalo U 25.5 -110 1st half (5 Dimes)
.05* UCONN/Buffalo U 25.5 -110 1st half (5 Dimes)

I personally have a small lean on UCONN in case your wondering. Think they're way too physical for Buffalo. QB play concerns me though hence no action on the side. Like this under....probably means you should fade haha.

Up a little over $200 thus far, will update record after this game.
 
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.10* UCONN/Buffalo U 52 -120 (Greek)
.10* UCONN/Buffalo U 25.5 -110 1st half (5 Dimes)
.05* UCONN/Buffalo U 25.5 -110 1st half (5 Dimes)
.05* UCONN -6.5 -110 (Bookmaker)

Note: .30* Under if first half loses


Expect a physical game of which should be dominated by UCONN.

GL
 
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Just played these teasers (not counting it towards my record as its a pretty late post):

UCONN -2/Arizona +5 $15 to win $15.75
UCONN -2/Minni +8 $15 to win $15.75

My two strongest plays in the NFL this week with UCONN who I see prevailing in this game.

Note: Plays were made at 5 Dimes
 
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passing on the 2nd half under. Naturally it'll probably hit now so I suggest playing it. I just really don't like totals and they don't like me haha
 

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Ever felt like you would would have a better chance flipping a coin with those totals? Ha. I can say I have.
 
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BTD: 14-15 +1.0685

2nd half hits!! yes I played it haha. Bottom line 1st half TO's cost me the total for the game. That is why with totals I love using my half/half system.
 
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Ever felt like you would would have a better chance flipping a coin with those totals? Ha. I can say I have.


I played the 2nd half under for 1 unit to be honest. The first half was simply an aberration. I spent more time handicapping this play than any other bowl game (about 2 hours). 1st half really pissed me half my friend cause of all the work I put in. My roommate goes to me "VOR stick to your guns my friend" so I did. Did not have computer access but I'm sure many that tailed don't bother checking in every 3 minutes to listen to my bickering haha.

On a serious note your quite right totals are a bitch to handicap :103631605

Have a strong lean on the SD/INDY Under!!! Haven't posted a single NFL total and I'm not about to :drink:
 
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BTD: 14-15 +1.0685

1.5* Ball State -2.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
.8* Tulsa +2.5 -101 (downgraded)
.10* Oklahoma +3 +112 (Matchbook)

Extra small lean on the Suckeyes

20-11 ATS in picking bowls this season (contests stuff) and I'm only up a little over a unit haha. Good thing I have a sense a humor.
 

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BTD: 14-15 +1.0685

1.5* Ball State -2.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
.8* Tulsa +2.5 -101 (downgraded)
.10* Oklahoma +3 +112 (Matchbook)

Extra small lean on the Suckeyes

20-11 ATS in picking bowls this season (contests stuff) and I'm only up a little over a unit haha. Good thing I have a sense a humor.
VOR...I've got a small lean to Ball State myself. They have the better defense by over 10 ppg. And Tulsa is just not a good road team. I'll be playing against the Buckeyes. I think the biggest angle to that game is OSU QB Pryor won't be able to take advantage of the weakest part of the Texas defense. The secondary. He is still a very raw freshman QB going up against McCoy, who in my opinion was the best QB by far this season, and should have won the overhyped Hesiman Trophy. OSU won't have an answer for McCoy imo. BOL the rest of the way.
 

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