It's not quite "Death, Taxes, and Alabama," but the Crimson Tide's dominance of the college football world has been as close to a guarantee as anything in the sport since 2007.
In Nick Saban's 16-year tenure in Tuscaloosa, Alabama recorded nine appearances in the national title game and six championship victories. It's a run unlike anything we've seen in college football. And it could be coming to an end right before our eyes.
With the setback to LSU last Saturday, Alabama finds itself with two losses this early in the season for the first time since 2010. A road trip to No. 11 Ole Miss looms, and a defeat there would hand Saban his first three-loss campaign in 12 years.
Despite having arguably the best offensive and defensive players in the country with Bryce Young and Will Anderson, the Tide struggle to dominate games in the fashion we've grown accustomed to over Saban's tenure.
Four of their nine games this season came down to the wire. Alabama won two of those in the dying seconds or final play of the game - a field goal at Texas and a goal-line stand against Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide also lost twice on the last play - a field goal at Tennessee and a two-point conversion in overtime at LSU.
While the Tide could very easily be undefeated if the ball broke their way in those two losses, they could've also surrendered four total losses. Regardless, it's jarring Alabama already has that many close calls after over a decade of dominance.
There are plenty of reasons the gap between the Crimson Tide and the rest of the country has narrowed, but here are three main factors that stick out amid their on-the-field struggles in 2022.
Nonexistent downfield passing attack
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In the last five years, we've grown accustomed to Alabama receivers running wild on hapless opponents. Since 2018, seven Crimson Tide wideouts have been first- or second-round picks in the NFL draft. With star quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, and now Young running the offense, the Alabama passing attack ranked among the best in the country in yards per attempt during that time period.
SEASONRANK NATIONALLYYARDS PER ATTEMPT
20182nd11.1
20193rd11
20201st11
20219th8.9
202254th7.8
That hasn't been the case in 2022. Alabama has fallen all the way to 54th nationally at under eight yards per passing attempt. Young is an excellent downfield passer, but the lack of separation from the receivers severely limits that aspect of the offense.
Jahmyr Gibbs is a brilliant receiver out of the backfield, but a running back shouldn't be leading the team in receptions or be second in receiving yards for this offense.
The Alabama attack is still a point-scoring juggernaut, ranked second in the SEC at 41 points per contest. While that number is impressive, it's substantially lower under Bill O'Brien in his second year as offensive coordinator than it was with Steve Sarkisian. The main reason for the drop-off the past two seasons is the lack of explosive passing plays Sarkisian regularly generated.
Lack of takeaways
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Alabama - with five-star talent and future pros all over the field - has only six takeaways on the season. Only the 3-5 New Mexico State has fewer among the 131 FBS teams in the country. Considering Saban's background as a defensive backs coach and defensive coordinator, this is an absolutely stunning development.
The lack of takeaways is difficult to explain when you look at the production of the pass rush. Led by likely top-five draft pick Anderson, the defensive line consistently gets to the opposing quarterback and ranks ninth nationally in sacks.
The secondary certainly has a great deal of talent, but inconsistency is an issue. It reared its ugly head in the loss at Tennessee; the Volunteers repeatedly torched anybody in Jalin Hyatt's vicinity, and the star wideout finished with 207 receiving yards and an outrageous five touchdowns.
Saban was clear afterward that it wasn't Tennessee's tempo that was the challenge, it was simply the inability to defend the receivers.
"I don't think the no-huddle offense was the issue for us," Saban said, according to Mason Smith of Sports Illustrated. "I think it was covering their receivers and allowing way too many big plays."
Since 2015, Alabama finished first or second in the SEC in takeaways every single year except one. The Tide have made a living building leads on the opposition and then taking the ball away to put it out of reach. That hasn't happened in 2022, and it's one of the main reasons for their current standing.
Penalties
Wesley Hitt / Getty Images Sport / Getty
One would typically associate a Saban-coached team with one of great discipline, but that certainly isn't the case this season. The Crimson Tide are the most penalized team in the country, averaging almost nine penalties per game.
In its narrow win at Texas, Alabama received 15 penalties for just the second time in Saban's tenure. The Tide surpassed that a few weeks later at Tennessee with a whopping 17 penalties for 130 yards in the close loss. A number of those were pre-snap penalties as the offensive line struggled to handle the raucous environment at Neyland Stadium.
"We can't go hang 'em up for doing this," Saban said after the loss, according to Zach Barnett of Football Scoop. "They're our players. We need to get them to understand what they need to do (to) not to allow these things to happen and understand the consequences of what happens when you do it."
The late stages of Saturday's loss at LSU were a perfect example of how penalties have affected Alabama this season. With the Crimson Tide leading 15-14 late in the fourth quarter, the secondary was whistled for a pass-interference penalty on a third-down stop to give the Tigers a crucial conversion. They would kick a field goal later in the drive to take a slight lead.
LSU trailed again in its next possession, but another pass-interference penalty got the Tigers inside Alabama's 25-yard line and led to a touchdown.
What does it all mean?
Alabama cannot win the SEC West unless LSU loses both of its final two conference games at Arkansas and Texas A&M. That seems unlikely, meaning the Tide's chances at the College Football Playoff are probably over. It'd mark just the second time since 2015 that they didn't qualify for the semifinals.
After the challenging road test at Ole Miss this weekend, the Crimson Tide host Austin Peay and Auburn to end the schedule. While the annual Iron Bowl against Auburn can be tricky, Alabama's rival is currently in the midst of one of its worst seasons in program history. It's very plausible Saban's outfit will finish the season with three straight wins to post a 10-2 record.
The Crimson Tide currently have the top-ranked recruiting class in the country for next season but have massive looming departures, including Young and Anderson. With the rise of Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and LSU this season, things could be getting increasingly tougher in the SEC for the foreseeable future.
Alabama isn't going to fall off the map, but the days when you could just write its name in pen for a CFP place at the start of the season appear to be over.
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