MLB Daily Line Drive: Wednesday's picks, betting odds and analysis
Double-Play Picks
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres (-130, 8.5)
The Phillies and Padres meet Wednesday afternoon in the final game of their three game series that has featured plenty of runs. The Padres took the first two games easily and the two teams have averaged 11.5 total runs per game in the process.
The Padres have evolved into a very sneaky, yet reliable, Over wager this season and currently own the third highest Over percentage in all of baseball at 56.6 percent (64-49-6). Petco Park used to be considered a wasteland for offense, but times have changed (as have the ballpark's dimensions) and the Padres are hitting Overs at 60 percent at home this season (33-22-3).
The Padres' young, productive offense will try to take full credit for their rise in Overs, but some of it should be attributed to their slumping pitching staff. Clayton Richard gets the ball for San Diego today and it's been a rough season for the veteran lefty - especially at home. Richard's ERA in 2017 is currently sitting at 5.14 with a WHIP of 1.60 and when pitching at Petco Park those numbers jump up to a 5.54 ERA and 1.64 WHIP.
Getting the start for the Phillies this afternoon is the pitching disaster that is Nick Pivetta. He owns an ERA of 6.09 and a WHIP of 1.45 this season and on the road those numbers inflate to a 7.47 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Over his last six starts Pivetta's ERA is 8.80 with a WHIP of 1.483 and the Over has cashed in five of those six games.
The Over has cashed in 15 of the last 17 meetings between these two team at Petco Park, and that trend should continue today.
Pick: Over 8.5
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-180, 10.5)
The Rangers may have sold off several key pieces at the non-waiver trade deadline, but that hasn't stopped them from clinging to their slim postseason hopes.
At 58-60 the Rangers sit just two games out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League and will hope to reduce that deficit as they look to complete a three-game sweep of the visiting Tigers Wednesday night in Texas.
The Rangers have won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 16-6 and things won’t get any easier for Detroit as they will have to go up against a red-hot Cole Hamels.
Hamels has given up no earned runs over his last two starts, scattering just seven hits over 16 innings, while striking out 10 batters. The veteran southpaw is 7-1 in 2017 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.040 WHIP. At home the numbers get even better, where he is 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA and a 0.951 WHIP.
Hamels faces a Tigers team which has dropped their last six road games, scoring just 2.3 runs per game in those contests.
However, -181 is a little too juicy for our liking, so let’s dig a little deeper.
Not only have the Rangers outscored the Tigers 16-6 in the first two games, their average margin of victory in their last 10 victories has been by 4.3 runs per game. Additionally, The Rangers have won eight of Hamels' starts this season, with the runline cashing in seven of them.
If you like the Rangers to win, like them to do it big and you can’t argue with that value.
Pick: Rangers -1.5 (+115)
Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 114-106-13
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Yu Darvish, Los Angeles Dodgers (8-9, 3.81 ERA, $-698)
Darvish sure has enjoyed his change of scenery. While joining one of the better teams in the last decade certainly doesn’t hurt, the Japanese right-hander is doing his part since being acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline.
In his two starts for Los Angeles, Darvish is 2-0 while allowing just two earned runs and scattering eight hits over 12 innings pitched while striking out 20, with just three walks.
Not surprisingly, Darvish and the Dodgers are massive -330 home favorites for their interleague showdown with the White Sox.
Slumping: Ricky Nolasco, Los Angeles Angels (5-12, 5.24 ERA, $-935)
While Darvish has enjoyed the scenery in Los Angeles, Nolasco could probably go for a change. The Angels' veteran has had a rough season going 5-12 with a 5.24 ERA and a WHIP of 1.448.
The right-hander has had a particularly tough go of it in his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs in just nine innings pitched, in addition to a WHIP over 2.00.
Despite Nolasco’s struggles, he and the Angels are just slight +113 road underdogs this afternoon in Washington.
Wednesday's Top Trends
* Under is 20-4-2 in the last 26 meetings between the Pirates and Brewers. PIT@MIL Total: 8.5.
* The Boston Red Sox are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter. -145 today vs Cardinals (Lynn).
* The Chicago Cubs are 6-0 in John Lackey's last 6 starts. -200 today vs Reds.
* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 49-9 in their last 58 overall. -320 today vs White Sox.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
The main weather alert for the baseball world today is in Minneapolis where the Twins are scheduled to take on the Indians. The forecast does not look good with rain and thunderstorms expected all evening. This one looks like it could be washed out.
There is a 50 percent chance of some thunderstorms developing late this evening on the North Side of Chicago where the Cubs will be battling the Reds. If these storms do happen, they may not roll in until after the game is already in the books. The Wrigley Field winds will be blowing slightly in from right field but mostly from right-to-left at 7-10 miles per hour. The Cubs are big faves at -200 and the total is 9.
Ump Of The Day
Chad Whitson is a visiting team's nightmare and he will be behind the plate today in Queens where the Mets will be hosting the Yankees.
The home team is 17-4 in Whitson's 21 games calling balls and strikes this season.
Also worth noting - Whitson has only been behind the dish for two Mets games in his young career. Both this season, both started by Robert Gsellman, both played at Citi Field, and both ended with Mets wins.
The Yankees are -155 road favorites today with lefty Jaime Garcia on the mound.