Today’s Free Pick-Dave Malinsky
GAME: Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals Jul 9, 2008 8:10PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: over
Offered at: 8.5
REASON FOR PICK: 5* WHITE SOX/ROYALS Over
It took a while last night before the fireworks got started between these two, but when all was said and done there were 15 runs on the board, including a 5-5 after nine innings that was a clear “regulation” Over. Tonight we expect a similar flow, with both teams having a chance to score early against the starters, and then perhaps even better opportunities against the bullpens later in the game. In fact, those bullpens may prove to be the real keys.
We have written a few times in recent weeks about Javier Vazquez, and how the notion that he has solved his home run issues was merely a mirage. He indeed got through his first five starts this season without allowing one over 30.2 innings. But much like the cold April weather was hurting the Chicago offense, it was also making Vazquez look a little too good. Since that opening salvo it has been 15 home runs in 75 innings, and four times in his last eight starts he has allowed multiple blasts. It has been just a 2-4/5.62 overall for him in that span, and Ozzie Guillen did not do him any favors when he left him out there for a 121-pitch complete game in Thursday’s loss to Oakland. He has not thrown more than that in a start since September of 2006. That leaves him vulnerable here both from a quality and quantity standpoint, which begins to bring those bullpen issues into play.
The White Sox finally had to put Bobby Jenks on the DL, and that is particularly awkward for tonight. Boone Logan, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton and Nick Masset all worked more than an inning last night, and while current closer Scott Linebrink only worked one, it was a draining 28-pitch failure. He has now been scored on in each of his last four appearances, blowing a pair of saves in the process, and off of those 28 pitches, and a laborious 26 to finish vs. Oakland on Sunday, he brings serious issues to the table.
There are similar issues for the Royals. One of the reasons why we chart statistics like BABIP so much (“Batting Average on Balls in Play”) is that it can point out when some pitchers are as much lucky as they are good. That was the case with Brian Bannister, and the 12-9/3.87 that he put together in 2007. Instead of it being a sign of a promising young talent, it was as much a case of someone holding the dice for a long time - of the 90 pitchers that worked at least 150 innings, only A. J. Burnett and Chris Young were lower in that category. Now Bannister’s ERA has risen to 5.15, as many of those balls now find openings, and despite working 57 fewer innings than in 2007 so far, his home run count has almost equalled LY’s allowance. His last two starts have seen him tagged for 14 runs (13 earned) over 9.2 innings, with 205 pitches needed to merely get that far. That creates some quality and quantity issues for him tonight, which can exacerbate a Kansas City bullpen in even worse shape than their Chicago counterparts.
The Royals have had some solid performers coming out of the pen, but none can be counted on here. All-Star Joakim Soria has worked back-to-back games, throwing 49 pitches, and almost assuredly will be held out. Key lefty set-up man Ron Mahay is off of back-to-back nights and 40 pitches. Key right-handed set-up man Ramon Ramirez is off of back-to-back and 35. And fellow set-up men Horacio Ramirez and Robinson Tejeda both worked multiple innings last night. In other words, there is not a single quality fresh arm available, which is a real problem if Bannister can not eat some innings effectively, and that makes it even easier for us to get this one home.
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