SPORTS WAGERS
NHL
Playoff Prop Bet
LOS ANGELES -1½ games +146 over N.Y. Rangers
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.92)
The more we look at this series the more we like the Kings. The more we hear the “experts” on TV trying to convince us the Rangers have a legit shot, the more we want to re-up our wager. Their job is to “sell” the games in an attempt to create interest and get as many people viewing as possible. They are trying to sell us on the fatigue factor regarding the Kings and they are trying to sell us on Henrik Lundqvist’s ability to steal a series but we’re not buying any of it and frankly, neither are they.
The fatigue factor is a joke and a complete non-issue, as L.A. will have two full days of rest before Wednesday’s opener and two more full days of rest before Game 2 on Saturday. The Kings will also be at home for the first two days so they will be fresher for this series than any of the previous three and then some. Trying to sell us on the fatigue factor is ridiculous beyond words but again, they have to sell something.
Lundqvist is not capable of stealing a series any more than Jonathan Quick is. In fact, if we had a choice between goaltenders, we would take Quick without hesitation because it was Quick who defeated some of the most lethal goal scorers and point producers in the first three rounds that this league has ever seen. Yeah, Lundqvist shut down the Penguins but everyone knows that Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were both hurt and way off their games in that series, yet Pitt still held a 3-1 games advantage and if that pair was playing up to par, the Rangers may have been eliminated in five games in round 2. We’re not suggesting Lundqvist isn’t good but he’s prone to allowing soft goals because of the style (deep in his crease) that he plays. Los Angeles has a room full of players that have found every weakness of every goaltender that they have faced in the playoffs and they did the exact same thing two years ago when they blew by every team in every round when they won the Cup. Lundqvist is not going to steal the series. For this wager to lose, the Rangers either have to win three games and take it to a seventh game or they are going to have to win it outright. Frankly, we don’t see them coming close to accomplishing either one. Aside from goaltending, which is safe to call equal, the Rangers are vastly inferior in every department no matter what metric you’re using and that also includes the strength of the opposition to get here.
Series wager
LOS ANGELES -160 over N.Y. Rangers
(Risking 6.4 units - To Win: 4.00)
You may read about or be influenced by the media (and experts) suggesting that the Kings may suffer a letdown or be burnt out after their difficult road to the final. We say hogwash and we say that the Rangers may not win a game. The Rangers had difficulty getting here against three very average teams in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Montreal without the services of Carey Price. Some will argue that Dustin Tokarski played well and while that is true, it doesn’t reflect the mindset of the rest of the team, whose confidence had to be shaken knowing they would be without their best player. The Rangers road to the Cup might just be this league’s easiest road in a very long time and New York was in no way dominating over any of the teams they faced. There’s a reason the West beat up on the East all year during the regular season and it’s about to be on full display again.
The Kings won’t be burned out or fatigued. This series starts on Wednesday and for the Kings, that’ll feel like a two-week vacation. Los Angeles not only rallied from an 0-3 deficit against the Sharks in round one, but they defeated three true powerhouses in San Jose, Anaheim and Chicago, all of whom had more points than the Rangers in a far more difficult conference. In Game 7 against the Blackhawks, in Chicago no less, the Kings had to overcome an early 2-0 deficit, they had to overcome at least three HORRIBLE calls by the refs in the second period that left them shorthanded three times, not to mention a rare 5 on 3 for 46 seconds. Trailing 4-3 entering the third, Los Angeles rallied and eventually won it on OT, 5-4. That win was truly impressive but what was even more impressive was the way they went about their business. After scoring in OT there was no mass celebration. Instead the Kings celebrated modestly like any other series, acting like it was just one more series win in their quest for the grand prize.
The Rangers are out of their league here. In a seven-game series, they can’t keep up with the talent or physical game that the Kings bring with them. After facing three offensive juggernauts with some of the best offensive talent in the game (Toews, Sharp, Kane, Saad, Getzlaf, Perry, Pavelski, Couture, Marleau et all), the Kings should have little trouble shutting down a Rangers offense that brings a fraction of the talent that the previous three teams they just knocked out bring. The Rangers are not going to get in the way of the vastly inferior Kings quest for the Cup. This is one of the biggest final mismatches in decades and even though the price is -160, we think it should be closer to -300. The Kings are not burned out and even as a -160 favorite they offer up huge value. Get in early because this number will rise.
