STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 25th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 6/25/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #13
•Here's Your Hottest Umpiring Trend For Wednesday: The Tampa Bay Rays love playing with umpire Lance Barksdale behind home plate. Tampa Bay is a perfect 7-0 in their last seven outings with the ump calling balls and strikes. They'll reunite when the Rays hosts the Pittsburgh Pirates (12:10 PM EST) at the Trop Wednesday afternoon. BetOnline.com currently has the Rays as -147 favorites with the Over/Under at seven for the interleague matchup.
•Under Trending With This Starter On The Road: San Diego Padres starter Ian Kennedy has been a solid Under play on the road lately with the Under going a spot-less 7-0 in his last seven assignments away from home. Kennedy gets the ball (3:45 PM EST) Wednesday when he and the Padres visit the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park. The Giants are currently -127 favorites with a total of seven according to BetOnline.com.
•Which Pitcher Is Red-Hot On The Over: Over bettors have been loving Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Marco Estrada recently. In Estrada's last 11 starts, the Over is 9-1-1. The Mexico native will be on the mound when the Brew Crew host Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals at Miller Park (2:10 PM EST) on Wednesday afternoon. BetOnline.com currently has the Nationals as -114 favorites with a total of 7.5.
•Over Bettors Sizing Up Kershaw's Next Start After No-Hitter: Clayton Kershaw became the second Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher to post a no-hitter this season, joining teammate Josh Beckett after blanking the Colorado Rockies Wednesday night. Kershaw didn’t allow a single hit or walk through nine innings, striking out an incredible 15 batters en route to an 8-0 Dodgers victory as -215 home favorites. Kershaw’s no-hitter came just under a month after Beckett threw a no-no versus the Philadelphia Phillies on May 25.
Beckett was able to shake a recent MLB totals trend in his first start after his no-hitter, following that historic effort with a two-run, five-hit, five-inning effort in a 2-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates which played Under the 7-run total on May 30. However, going back to 1999, and excluding two collective no-no's involving more than one pitcher (Houston 2003, Seattle 2012), starters making their first appearance since their no-hitter are 21-14-1 Over/Under – 60 percent Over.
Last season featured three no-hitters from Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey, San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum and Miami’s Henderson Alvarez. While Bailey finished Under the number in his first start off the no-no, Lincecum and Alvarez both topped the total in their following efforts (Alvarez pitched his no-hitter on Sept. 29 and his next start was a 6-5 loss to Colorado with a total of 7 runs on April 2).
Kershaw is expected to be back on the mound Tuesday versus the Kansas City Royals – according to the Dodgers’ current pitching rotation. He’s 7-2 with a 2.52 ERA on the year. Los Angeles has gone 6-4 Over/Under in his 10 starts this season.
•Machado Hearing Scheduled For Wednesday: Orioles manager Buck Showalter confirmed today that third baseman Manny Machado's hearing on his appeal of a five-game suspension will take place Wednesday in Baltimore. Executive vice president Dan Duquette will attend the hearing with Machado. A verdict may not be handed down until this weekend, which suits the Orioles, who would prefer to have Machado available for Friday night's doubleheader against the Rays. The Orioles will add Kevin Gausman as a 26th player and he's scheduled to start Game #1. They would need to make an additional roster move if Machado begins serving his suspension, calling up an infielder and sending down a reliever.
Machado was given a five-game suspension and fined an undisclosed amount after throwing his bat on June 8 in retaliation for two inside pitches from Athletics reliever Fernando Abad, which caused the benches and bullpens to empty for the second time in the three-game series. Machado also was in the middle of the first scrum two nights earlier after taking exception to a tag from third baseman Josh Donaldson. Machado apologized to the Orioles, their fans and the Athletics in separate interviews on June 9. Abad was fined an undisclosed amount, but he did not receive a suspension despite twice throwing at Machado. The Orioles, citing precedents, are confident that Machado's suspension will be reduced.
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Betting Notes - Wednesday
National League
•Nationals-Brewers - 2:10 PM
--Strasburg is 0-1, 4.97 in his last two starts.
--Estrada is 1-2, 8.74 in his last four starts.
--Washington won its last four games.
--Brewers won six of their last nine games.
--Four of last five Strasburg starts went over total.
•Cardinals-Rockies - 3:10 PM
--Gonzales is making first MLB start; he was 3-2, 2.33 in seven starts in the AA Texas League; his dad coaches in the Rockies' minor league system.
--28-year old rookie Flande makes MLB debut here; he is 2-9, 4.42 in 13 starts at AAA this season.
--Cardinals won 11 of their last 16 games.
--Colorado lost seven of its last eight games.
--Over is 10-2-2 in last 14 Colorado games; under is 6-1-1 in Cards' last eight.
•Padres-Giants - 3:45 PM
--Kennedy is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
--Lincecum is 1-2, 6.85 in his last four starts.
--San Diego lost eight of its last eleven road games, but won last two.
--Giants lost 11 of their last 14 games overall.
--Nine of last eleven San Diego games stayed under.
•Reds-Cubs - 7:05 PM
--Latos is 0-0, 3.86 in his first two starts this year.
--Jackson is 1-4, 8.40 in his last six starts.
--Cincinnati won nine of its last thirteen games.
--Cubs lost four of their last six home games.
--Five of last six Jackson starts went over the total.
•Marlins-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Marlins won last six Alvarez starts (2-0, 0.91).
--Burnett is 2-1, 2.22 in his last three starts.
--Marlins lost five of their last seven games.
--Phillies lost three of their last four games.
--Five of last seven Miami games stayed under total.
American League
•White Sox-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Noesi is 1-1, 7.16 in his last three starts.
--Orioles were outscored 50-7 in losing all seven of Jimenez' home starts.
--White Sox lost eight of their last nine road games.
--Baltimore is 9-6 in its last fifteen home games.
--Eight of last nine Baltimore home games stayed under.
•Yankees-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Kuroda is 0-2, 4.08 in his last three starts.
--Hutchison is 1-2, 5.65 in his last three starts.
--Yankees lost last four games, outscored 29-10.
--Blue Jays won four of their last five home games.
--Last four Kuroda starts stayed under the total.
•Tigers-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Sanchez is 2-0, 2.05 in his last four starts.
--Saunders is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
--Detroit won four of its last five games.
--Rangers lost their last six games.
--Six of last seven Detroit road games went over total.
•Twins-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Pino allowed two runs in seven IP (94 PT) in his first MLB start.
--Richards is 3-0, 0.67 in his last four starts.
--Minnesota won four of last five games, but lost six in row on road.
--Angels won 13 of their last 15 home games.
--Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Angel home games.
•Red Sox-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Buchholz was 0-2, 10.00 in his last four starts before the DL; his last start was May 26.
--Iwakuma is 2-1, 2.93 in his last four starts.
--Red Sox lost 12 of their last 15 road games.
--Seattle won eight of its last ten games.
--Seven of last nine Iwakuma starts stayed under the total.
Interleague
•Pirates-Rays - 12:10 PM
--Morton is 3-1, 3.96 in his last four starts.
--Price is 1-3, 3.77 in his last four starts.
--Pirates won ten of their last fourteen road games.
--Tampa Bay is 6-11 in its last seventeen home games.
--Last four Morton starts went over; four of last five Price starts stayed under.
•Athletics-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Mills allowed three runs in four IP (94 PT) in his first '14 start.
--Wheeler is 0-3, 3.98 in five home starts.
--Oakland won five of its last seven games.
--Mets won five of their last six games.
--Five of last six Wheeler starts stayed under the total.
•Braves-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Wood is 0-4, 3.81 in his last four starts, last of which was May 4.
--McHugh is 0-2, 5.28 in his last three starts.
--Atlanta lost five of its last eight games.
--Astros lost seven of their last eight games.
--Three of McHugh's last four home starts went over.
•Dodgers-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Haren is 2-0, 4.15 in his last three starts.
--Shields is 2-0, 4.26 in his last three starts; Royals are 8-1 in his last nine.
--Dodgers won eight of their last eleven games.
--Kansas City lost five of its last six games, scoring 10 runs.
--Nine of last eleven Shields starts went over the total.
•Indians-Arizona - 9:40 PM
--Kluber is 0-1, 2.92 in his last two starts.
--Anderson is 0-1, 4.09 in his last two starts.
--Cleveland lost five of its last six games.
--Arizona lost nine of its last thirteen games.
--Seven of last nine Kluber starts went over the total.
•Umpires Trends
-- Wsh-Mil-- Favorites won ten of last eleven Segal games.
-- StL-Col-- Eight of last twelve TBarrett games went over.
-- SD-SF-- Road team won last eight Hamari games; last four went over.
-- Cin-Chi-- Five of last seven Bucknor games stayed under.
-- Mia-Phil-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Wolf games.
-- Chi-Balt-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Emmel games.
-- NY-Tor-- Eight of last eleven Barry games stayed under.
-- Det-Tex-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Tichenor games.
-- Minn-LA-- Last three Wolcott games stayed under.
-- Bos-Sea-- Home team won seven of last eight Reyburn games.
-- Pitt-TB-- Eight of last ten Barksdale games went over.
-- A's-NY-- Five of last seven West games went over.
-- Atl-Hst-- Underdogs won 10 of last 13 Davidson games.
-- LA-KC-- Road team won six of last seven Knight games.
-- Cle-Az-- Since 2011, under is 49-41 in Fairchild games; this is just his second game behind plate this season.
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
•ATLANTA is 3-13 (-13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 2.5, OPPONENT 4.8.
•MILWAUKEE is 11-1 UNDER (+10.0 Units) in home games versus a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.2, OPPONENT 2.7.
•CLEVELAND is 3-14 (-17.9 Units) against the run line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 2.3, OPPONENT 4.9.
•DAN HAREN is 4-15 (-16.3 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAREN 3.2, OPPONENT 5.5.
•HIROKI KURODA is 18-3 UNDER (+14.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KURODA 2.7, OPPONENT 3.5.
•EDWIN JACKSON is 3-16 (-17.3 Units) against the run line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was JACKSON 3.8, OPPONENT 6.4.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Home teams (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 on the season (American League), terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season.
(36-14 since 1997.) (72.0%, +24.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +107.8
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 3.9 (Average run differential = +1.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0, +5.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4, +5.3 units).
•Play On - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (MIAMI) - average hitting team (AVG = .255 to .269) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=3.70 to 4.20) - National League, starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing.
(43-14 since 1997.) (75.4%, +29.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (34-23)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2, money line price: +102
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.8 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 26 (45.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-1, +5.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2, +6.8 units).
•Play Under - Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SEATTLE) - team with a terrible on base percentage (<=.310) against a terrible starting pitcher (WHIP>=1.700) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL).
(33-8 since 1997.) (80.5%, +24.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.4, Money Line=-110
The average score in these games was: Team 3.5, Opponent 3.8 (Total runs scored = 7.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 27 (73% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5, +11.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8, +14.2 units).
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