Totals 4 You MLB Selections for Wednesday, June 17th
2015 Inter-League on ESPN 2 Total of the Year!!!!!
Tampa Bay/Washington over 7 1/2
You Win or we'll email you Thursday's MLB Report Free of Charge!!!
MLB Best Bets
Detroit/Cincinnati under 7
Milwaukee/Kansas City under 8 1/2
Pittsburgh/Chicago over 8 1/2
Los Angeles/Arizona under 8 1/2
2015 Inter-League on ESPN 2 Total of the Year!!!!!
Tampa Bay/Washington over 7 1/2
You Win or we'll email you Thursday's MLB Report Free of Charge!!!
MLB Best Bets
Detroit/Cincinnati under 7
Milwaukee/Kansas City under 8 1/2
Pittsburgh/Chicago over 8 1/2
Los Angeles/Arizona under 8 1/2
TheSportsCapper
WEDNESDAY
MLB BASEBALL
10* Play Washington -150 over Tampa Bay (MLB PLAY)
Washington has won 40 of the last 59 games when playing on a Wednesday and they have won 55 of the last 84 games when playing as a home favorite of -150 to -200. Washington has won 93 of the last 164 games when batting .250 or worse over the last twenty games and they have won 93 of the last 159 home games when the total posted is 7.5 runs or less.
10* Play Toronto -160 over New York Mets (MLB PLAY)
Toronto has won 40 of the last 66 games when playing in the month of June and they have won 29 of the last 43 games when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher. Toronto has won 30 of the last 50 inter-league games and they have won 33 of the last 49 games after having won six or seven of the last eight games
10* Play Baltimore -160 over Philadelphia (MLB PLAY)
Philadelphia has lost 38 of the last 54 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have lost 43 of the last 65 games when playing in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season. Philadelphia has lost 39 of the last 60 games when playing on a Wednesday and they have lost 60 of the last 105 home games vs. AL East Division Opponents.
WEDNESDAY
MLB BASEBALL
10* Play Washington -150 over Tampa Bay (MLB PLAY)
Washington has won 40 of the last 59 games when playing on a Wednesday and they have won 55 of the last 84 games when playing as a home favorite of -150 to -200. Washington has won 93 of the last 164 games when batting .250 or worse over the last twenty games and they have won 93 of the last 159 home games when the total posted is 7.5 runs or less.
10* Play Toronto -160 over New York Mets (MLB PLAY)
Toronto has won 40 of the last 66 games when playing in the month of June and they have won 29 of the last 43 games when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher. Toronto has won 30 of the last 50 inter-league games and they have won 33 of the last 49 games after having won six or seven of the last eight games
10* Play Baltimore -160 over Philadelphia (MLB PLAY)
Philadelphia has lost 38 of the last 54 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have lost 43 of the last 65 games when playing in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season. Philadelphia has lost 39 of the last 60 games when playing on a Wednesday and they have lost 60 of the last 105 home games vs. AL East Division Opponents.
BeatYourBookie
WEDNESDAY MLB BASEBALL
50* Play Pittsburgh -115 over Chicago White Sox
Pittsburgh is 28-18 when playing in inter-league games
Pittsburgh is 34-27 when playing on a Wednesday
50* Play San Francisco +125 over Seattle
Seattle is 10-22 when the line posted is between -100 to -150
Seattle is 13-19 in home games this season
50* Play Cincinnati -110 over Detroit
Johnny Cueto is 27-9 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs
Johnny Cueto is 28-12 when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher
WEDNESDAY MLB BASEBALL
50* Play Pittsburgh -115 over Chicago White Sox
Pittsburgh is 28-18 when playing in inter-league games
Pittsburgh is 34-27 when playing on a Wednesday
50* Play San Francisco +125 over Seattle
Seattle is 10-22 when the line posted is between -100 to -150
Seattle is 13-19 in home games this season
50* Play Cincinnati -110 over Detroit
Johnny Cueto is 27-9 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs
Johnny Cueto is 28-12 when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher
Winning Angle Baseball
WEDNESDAY
Play Washington -150 over Tampa Bay (Top Play)
Jordan Zimmermann has won 40 of the last 48 games when pitching as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has won 9 of the last 11 inter-league games. Jordan Zimmermann has won 38 of the last 53 night games and he has won 31 of the last 43 home games.
Play Los Angeles Dodgers -250 over Texas (Top Play)
Clayton Kershaw has won 78 of the last 117 games when pitching as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has won 24 of the last 39 games when pitching in the month of June. Clayton Kershaw has won 95 of the last 142 games when the total posted is seven runs or less and he has won 77 of the last 120 home games.
Play Cincinnati -110 over Detroit (Top Play)
Johnny Cueto has won 27 of the last 36 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has won 28 of the last 40 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher. Johnny Cueto has won 24 of the last 38 home games and he has won 18 of the last 28 games when playing on a Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY
Play Washington -150 over Tampa Bay (Top Play)
Jordan Zimmermann has won 40 of the last 48 games when pitching as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has won 9 of the last 11 inter-league games. Jordan Zimmermann has won 38 of the last 53 night games and he has won 31 of the last 43 home games.
Play Los Angeles Dodgers -250 over Texas (Top Play)
Clayton Kershaw has won 78 of the last 117 games when pitching as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has won 24 of the last 39 games when pitching in the month of June. Clayton Kershaw has won 95 of the last 142 games when the total posted is seven runs or less and he has won 77 of the last 120 home games.
Play Cincinnati -110 over Detroit (Top Play)
Johnny Cueto has won 27 of the last 36 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has won 28 of the last 40 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher. Johnny Cueto has won 24 of the last 38 home games and he has won 18 of the last 28 games when playing on a Wednesday.
DAVE COKIN – MLB
2* Tigers/Reds – Under 7 -115 (Price/Cueto)
Kind of an obvious call with two of the game’s better pitchers. But Price has been exceptional last couple starts and Cueto is a machine at home. Tigers are still missing a couple of key components vs. righties. Cindy has hit lefties pretty well but if Price is again on his game they won’t likely do much against him. Both bullpens are very worrisome, but this is a game where I’m counting getting seven plus from my two starters, and the two ninth innings guys are fine. Supposed to be a 3-2 game on paper, let’s play it Under and hope it’s that way on the field.
2* Brewers/Royals – Under 8.5 -120 (Fiers/Blanton)
This total looks too high to me. Mike Fiers has been solid for Milwaukee and his occasional gopher ball tendencies not so much in play at this ballpark, as long balls tough to come by here. Fiers has been at his best away from home and in fact his last nine road starts have all stayed Under the number. As for Joe Blanton, I’m as shocked as anyone that he’s been as good as he’s been since getting called up. Maybe it’s that KC uniform. In any event, I would expect that the goal here is to get 4-5 innings out of Blanton and then hand it off to the bullpen. It’s kind of a big start for Blanton, as while he’s in Ventura’s spot here, a good start or two for Blanton could get him into the rotation in place of Jeremy Guthrie. By the way, the Royals are on a 10-1-2 Under roll at home, so really no qualms about taking the plunge that way here.
2* Astros -115 (Oberholtzer/Kendrick) OK to -130 on this game
Big numbers edge on the Houston side here. The pitching matchup is pretty close as whole Kendrick is a bottom tier starter, Oberholtzer isn’t much better. But from there it’s all Astros. Superior offense, better bullpen and the Rockies are not as dangerous, even at home, against lefties. The biggest deal is the Houston swagger. This team is playing with great confidence now. I thick they’re crossed over that line from a surprise team that was just having some fun to a team that really believes it can win everything. I’m not sure I’ll go quite that far, but this is not a fluke. The Astros are now a legit playoff team in my rankings, and yet they still aren’t getting priced that way. I think this is too cheap, and I’m on the ‘Stros.
Bonus Play – Pirates -110 (Locke/Danks)
Really not at all enthused about backing Locke on the road, but the White Sox offensive numbers against lefties are about as awful as you’ll ever see considering it’s already mid-June. The pitching between Locke and Danks is pretty close. The rest favors the Bucs and I’ll include the energy factor there, as the Pale Hose look like a dead baseball team. Also sure looks like Bucs will run at every opportunity, particularly if Flowers is behind the plate, as he’s 2/31 trying too throw out stealers. Pittsburgh is public here, although not as overwhelming as I though they would be. That doesn’t bother me much anyway, as square sides are doing pretty well right now. Bucs -110 or so is okay.
Bonus Play – Take: PIRATES -110
Yeah, I know, it’s Jeff Locke. A couple years ago, those of us who like to focus on the pitching metrics referred to him as Jeff Luck. It was kind of ridiculous just how much good fortune he was receiving start after start. I can tell you I lost more than a couple of wagers because I refused to believe that a major regression was going to take place. It eventually did, but I made a mistake in not waiting for the worm to start turning, and learned yet another valuable lesson in the process.
As for the 2015 version of Locke, he’s pitching roughly the level projected. Locke is a #4/5 starting pitcher. That’s a guy who you hope can get you six innings and hang in enough to give the team a chance to win.
Locke’s opponent tonight is another back of the rotation guy, as John Danks gets the start for the White Sox. I’d say this is a pretty even mound matchup, but if that’s indeed the case, the Pirates own a substantial edge.
The current edition of the White Sox is about as anemic as it gets, particularly against southpaws. In fact, the Pale Hose numbers against lefties as of today are about as awful as it can possibly get. So even against a low end lefty like Locke, I can’t really forecast the White Sox suddenly breaking out.
This is hot team vs. cold team all the way. The Bucs have really warmed up and if you’ve watched their games lately, you can absolutely feel the confidence. I’m afraid the White Sox are the polar opposite currently. They’re a flat entry with no real energy and let’s face it, this is a team that probably needs to make a managerial change. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to pin all this on Robin Ventura. But the team is bad and unless they just intend to pack it in for yet another season, they need to shake things up in a hurry.
As for tonight, I made the number a little higher, not on the pitching but on the other team elements, which basically all favor the Pittsburgh side. Look for the Pirates to maintain their roll with another win tonight.
2* Tigers/Reds – Under 7 -115 (Price/Cueto)
Kind of an obvious call with two of the game’s better pitchers. But Price has been exceptional last couple starts and Cueto is a machine at home. Tigers are still missing a couple of key components vs. righties. Cindy has hit lefties pretty well but if Price is again on his game they won’t likely do much against him. Both bullpens are very worrisome, but this is a game where I’m counting getting seven plus from my two starters, and the two ninth innings guys are fine. Supposed to be a 3-2 game on paper, let’s play it Under and hope it’s that way on the field.
2* Brewers/Royals – Under 8.5 -120 (Fiers/Blanton)
This total looks too high to me. Mike Fiers has been solid for Milwaukee and his occasional gopher ball tendencies not so much in play at this ballpark, as long balls tough to come by here. Fiers has been at his best away from home and in fact his last nine road starts have all stayed Under the number. As for Joe Blanton, I’m as shocked as anyone that he’s been as good as he’s been since getting called up. Maybe it’s that KC uniform. In any event, I would expect that the goal here is to get 4-5 innings out of Blanton and then hand it off to the bullpen. It’s kind of a big start for Blanton, as while he’s in Ventura’s spot here, a good start or two for Blanton could get him into the rotation in place of Jeremy Guthrie. By the way, the Royals are on a 10-1-2 Under roll at home, so really no qualms about taking the plunge that way here.
2* Astros -115 (Oberholtzer/Kendrick) OK to -130 on this game
Big numbers edge on the Houston side here. The pitching matchup is pretty close as whole Kendrick is a bottom tier starter, Oberholtzer isn’t much better. But from there it’s all Astros. Superior offense, better bullpen and the Rockies are not as dangerous, even at home, against lefties. The biggest deal is the Houston swagger. This team is playing with great confidence now. I thick they’re crossed over that line from a surprise team that was just having some fun to a team that really believes it can win everything. I’m not sure I’ll go quite that far, but this is not a fluke. The Astros are now a legit playoff team in my rankings, and yet they still aren’t getting priced that way. I think this is too cheap, and I’m on the ‘Stros.
Bonus Play – Pirates -110 (Locke/Danks)
Really not at all enthused about backing Locke on the road, but the White Sox offensive numbers against lefties are about as awful as you’ll ever see considering it’s already mid-June. The pitching between Locke and Danks is pretty close. The rest favors the Bucs and I’ll include the energy factor there, as the Pale Hose look like a dead baseball team. Also sure looks like Bucs will run at every opportunity, particularly if Flowers is behind the plate, as he’s 2/31 trying too throw out stealers. Pittsburgh is public here, although not as overwhelming as I though they would be. That doesn’t bother me much anyway, as square sides are doing pretty well right now. Bucs -110 or so is okay.
Bonus Play – Take: PIRATES -110
Yeah, I know, it’s Jeff Locke. A couple years ago, those of us who like to focus on the pitching metrics referred to him as Jeff Luck. It was kind of ridiculous just how much good fortune he was receiving start after start. I can tell you I lost more than a couple of wagers because I refused to believe that a major regression was going to take place. It eventually did, but I made a mistake in not waiting for the worm to start turning, and learned yet another valuable lesson in the process.
As for the 2015 version of Locke, he’s pitching roughly the level projected. Locke is a #4/5 starting pitcher. That’s a guy who you hope can get you six innings and hang in enough to give the team a chance to win.
Locke’s opponent tonight is another back of the rotation guy, as John Danks gets the start for the White Sox. I’d say this is a pretty even mound matchup, but if that’s indeed the case, the Pirates own a substantial edge.
The current edition of the White Sox is about as anemic as it gets, particularly against southpaws. In fact, the Pale Hose numbers against lefties as of today are about as awful as it can possibly get. So even against a low end lefty like Locke, I can’t really forecast the White Sox suddenly breaking out.
This is hot team vs. cold team all the way. The Bucs have really warmed up and if you’ve watched their games lately, you can absolutely feel the confidence. I’m afraid the White Sox are the polar opposite currently. They’re a flat entry with no real energy and let’s face it, this is a team that probably needs to make a managerial change. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to pin all this on Robin Ventura. But the team is bad and unless they just intend to pack it in for yet another season, they need to shake things up in a hurry.
As for tonight, I made the number a little higher, not on the pitching but on the other team elements, which basically all favor the Pittsburgh side. Look for the Pirates to maintain their roll with another win tonight.
Bob Balfe
Martinez/Milone
Nothing about this Twins team scares me when they are facing right handed pitching. This team was hitting left handers well, but now they really are not hitting anybody. The Cardinals have the better team, starter and bullpen. I like St. Louis at this price. Take the Cardinals.
Martinez/Milone
Nothing about this Twins team scares me when they are facing right handed pitching. This team was hitting left handers well, but now they really are not hitting anybody. The Cardinals have the better team, starter and bullpen. I like St. Louis at this price. Take the Cardinals.
SHARP MOVES
Steam Rot#: 929 Team: LA Dodgers-250
Steam Rot#: 927 Team: San Francisco/Seattle – UNDER 6
Steam Rot#: 925 Team: Oakland-190
Steam Rot#: 923 Team: LA Angels/Arizona – OVER 8½
Steam Rot#: 921 Team: Houston/Colorado – OVER 10½
Steam Rot#: 915 Team: Milwaukee/Kansas City – UNDER 8½
Steam Rot#: 917 Team: Pittsburgh/Chicago White Sox – UNDER 8½
Steam Rot#: 919 Team: St. Louis/Minnesota – UNDER 8
Steam Rot#: 911 Team: Atlanta-114
Steam Rot#: 913 Team: Detroit/Cincinnati – UNDER 7
Steam Rot#: 909 Team: Chicago Cubs/Cleveland – UNDER 8
Steam Rot#: 911 Team: Boston/Atlanta – UNDER 8
Steam Rot#: 905 Team: Miami/NY Yankees – UNDER 8
Steam Rot#: 907 Team: NY Mets/Toronto – UNDER 9
Steam Rot#: 901 Team: Baltimore/Philadelphia – UNDER 8
Steam Rot#: 907 Team: Toronto-190
Steam Rot#: 903 Team: Tampa Bay+142
Steam Rot#: 929 Team: LA Dodgers-250
Steam Rot#: 927 Team: San Francisco/Seattle – UNDER 6
Steam Rot#: 925 Team: Oakland-190
Steam Rot#: 923 Team: LA Angels/Arizona – OVER 8½
Steam Rot#: 921 Team: Houston/Colorado – OVER 10½
Steam Rot#: 915 Team: Milwaukee/Kansas City – UNDER 8½
Steam Rot#: 917 Team: Pittsburgh/Chicago White Sox – UNDER 8½
Steam Rot#: 919 Team: St. Louis/Minnesota – UNDER 8
Steam Rot#: 911 Team: Atlanta-114
Steam Rot#: 913 Team: Detroit/Cincinnati – UNDER 7
Steam Rot#: 909 Team: Chicago Cubs/Cleveland – UNDER 8
Steam Rot#: 911 Team: Boston/Atlanta – UNDER 8
Steam Rot#: 905 Team: Miami/NY Yankees – UNDER 8
Steam Rot#: 907 Team: NY Mets/Toronto – UNDER 9
Steam Rot#: 901 Team: Baltimore/Philadelphia – UNDER 8
Steam Rot#: 907 Team: Toronto-190
Steam Rot#: 903 Team: Tampa Bay+142
