Steve Merril
NCAA Basketball
(3% play) LOUISVILLE -9 (vs. Syracuse) - 7:00 pm ET (ESPN) #706
Syracuse is 8-1 SU over their last nine games, but the Orange have played an extremely easy schedule over that span. Syracuse’s wins have come against the likes of Wake Forest twice, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Georgia Tech. They were supposed to win those games because they are superior to those opponents. However, the Orange only beat Georgia Tech by 3 points, and they needed overtime to beat Virginia Tech. Both of those games came on their home court, so the close results are unimpressive. Syracuse will now play a back-to-back road set while taking a monumental step-up in class. The Orange offense has struggled away from home all season; Syracuse is only averaging 67.3 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 38.8% shooting from three-point land on the road.
Louisville returns home off back-to-back road losses at Duke and at Notre Dame. The Cardinals were competitive in both of those defeats as they only lost by 7 and 5 points. Off those losses, we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since Louisville is 15-1 SU at home where they own an exceptional +25.8 point differential on the season. The Cardinals’ defense has been excellent at home as they are holding opponents to just 55.1 points per game on 35.8% shooting from the field and 26.6% shooting from three-point land. Louisville’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 80.9 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land. Louisville is in a good spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this home game on Wednesday night.
Play LOUISVILLE (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) USC -8 (vs. Colorado) - 11:00 pm ET (ESPN-U) #764
Colorado comes into tonight’s game at USC with a 19-7 SU record, but 14 of those wins have come on their strong home court. Colorado is just 4-4 in true road games with those four losses coming by an average of -12.5 points per game. Three of their four losses have come by double digits, so the Buffaloes have not been a competitive bunch in their away games. Colorado is in a terrible situational spot for this game and they might be without forward Josh Scott who is questionable due to an ankle injury. The Buffaloes come in off three consecutive close games; they lost by 4 points to Oregon State, they beat Washington State in overtime, and they beat Washington by a single point. Now they must hit the road where their defense is giving up 74.5 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from the field.
USC returns home off back-to-back road losses at Arizona State and at Arizona. The Trojans are a perfect 14-0 SU at home where they own an excellent +17.7 point differential on the season. USC’s defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to just 38.3% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from three-point land. The Trojans’ offense has been outstanding at home where they are averaging 87.1 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land. USC is in a terrific spot for a big bounce win, so we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this home game on Wednesday night.
Play USC (-) as a 3% play
Big Play Power Consensus Wed Feb 17th, 2016 7:00pm EST from the swami 
