Jeff Benton
Wednesday's Action
25 DIME: PHOENIX SUNS
Suns
I’m applying my “1-2-3 Cancun” test to this one.
See, several years ago – right before their run of three straight NBA titles – the L.A. Lakers were losing to Utah in the deciding game of a playoff series when they called a timeout late in the fourth quarter. The players broke the huddle with the familiar “1-2-3” chant, only guard Nick Van Exel ended his by uttering “Cancun!” Van Exel knew the game, series and season were over, and his mind was already on vacation.
Well, there’s no doubt in my mind that the Portland Trail Blazers will be having their own “1-2-3 Cancun” moment in Phoenix tonight. Really, other than the New Jersey Nets, I can’t think of a team looking forward to the All-Star break more than the banged-up Blazers (who get six days off after this game). As I noted yesterday in my analysis on the Thunder-Blazers game – when I backed Oklahoma City with a 25 Dime winner – Portland has been ravaged by injuries. This team has lost two centers (Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla) for the season; solid forward Travis Outlaw has missed 43 games with a foot injury; and point guard Brandon Roy – the team’s heart and soul – has missed 11 games in a row and 13 of the last 14 with a hamstring injury, and he won’t be back until after the All-Star break (if then).
Adding injury to insult, last night forward Martell Webster (averaging 10.8 points and 4 rebounds per game) got undercut near the basket and fell hard to the floor, injuring his back. He walked off under his own power and missed much of the rest of the game. Though Webster is expected to play tonight, who knows how effective he’ll be, as back injuries are killer for athletes.
Regardless of how effective Webster will be, how tough a spot is this for Portland, which has lost three in a row and seven of 11 (all without Roy)? The few Blazers who are healthy expended a ton of energy last night, as they fell behind 14-2 to start the game, battled back to tie it at 41-41 at halftime and took a two-point lead into the fourth quarter … only to completely run out of steam over the final 12 minutes, as the Thunder outscored Portland 30-16. Here’s how bad things were last night: Four Blazers – Webster and guards Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez and Steve Blake – missed a combined 19 of 22 shots and finished with a combined eight points as Portland finished with its lowest point total since scoring 76 points at the Lakers on Opening Night … of LAST season!
Now, after an overnight flight to Phoenix, the Blazers limp right back onto the court 24 hours later. They also have to face a Suns team that: A) has won and covered five games in a row; B) has been resting since Friday, when it capped a perfect four-game road trip with a 12-point win at Sacramento (its last three wins on the trip – at New Orleans, Denver and Sacramento – came by 9, 12 and 12 points); C) is 18-6 at home this year; D) will push the pace all night long (the Suns average 110 ppg overall, 113 ppg at home and they’ve topped triple digits in 11 straight games and 23 of the last 24); and E) has defeated Portland nine straight times in Phoenix.
Not only have the Suns won nine in a row against the Blazers at US Airways Center, but those nine wins came by an average of 16.9 points per game. And I guarantee you this: None of those nine games were played under the kind of circumstances that surround this one, circumstances like Phoenix coming in off of four days rest and playing very confidently during a five-game winning streak; Portland traveling after a rough home loss the night before in which it scored its fewest points in 154 games; the Blazers coming in battered and bruised and without their best player for a 12th straight game; and the All-Star break looming for both teams (Phoenix is eager to take a six-game winning streak into the break; Portland is just eager to get some time off).
Throw in the fact that the favorite is on an 18-7-1 ATS run in this rivalry, the home team has cashed in the last five, the Suns are 23-11-1 ATS in the last 35 games against the Blazers, and Portland is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 trips to Phoenix, and this is an absolute no-brainer! Lay the chalk with the Suns, who should enter the fourth quarter with a 20-point lead and cruise home from there.
Paid and Confirmed by me
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