THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(14) Ball State (10-0, 7-2 ATS) at Central Michigan (8-2, 6-3 ATS)
Ball State, one of five remaining unbeaten teams in Division I-A, hits the road for a key Mid-American Conference clash against surging Central Michigan, with both teams sporting 6-0 SU marks in league play.
The Cardinals remained perfect by pulling away from Miami (Ohio) 31-16 last Tuesday night, narrowly failing to cash as a healthy 17½-point chalk, their second ATS setback in the last three games. Ball State was up by just four (17-13) at halftime but allowed only a field goal in the second half, and RB MiQuale Lewis (26 carries, 165 yards) had a 1-yard TD run in the third quarter and another 1-yard score in the fourth. The Cards finished with a 484-330 edge in total yards.
The Chippewas, playing their third straight road game, topped Northern Illinois 33-30 in overtime on Wednesday last week as a four-point road underdog for their sixth straight victory (4-2 ATS). Central Michigan blew a 30-14 fourth-quarter lead, getting shut out in the final frame as the Huskies forced OT, but the Chippewas got an INT to open the extra session, then won on Andrew Aguila’s 40-yard field goal. QB Dan LeFevour (19 of 26, 188 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient in the air, and he also ran for 121 yards and two more TDs.
Both squads are 4-2 ATS in MAC play and tied atop the West Division standings, but just a half-game ahead of Western Michigan.
Ball State features the nation’s ninth-ranked scoring defense (15.4 points per game allowed), and the offense ranks 12th in total offense (461 yards per game) and 15th in scoring (37.6 ppg). Meanwhile, Central Michigan has the 14th-rated passing attack (279.1).
Central Michigan is on streaks of 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in this rivalry, and going back 11 years, the Chips are 8-3 ATS against Ball State. The road team, however, is on a 5-2 ATS surge, which includes CMU’s 58-38 rout at Ball State last year as a 12-point road underdog. In the victory, the Chips nearly doubled the Cardinals in total offense, finishing with a 658-369 yardage edge.
Along with their season-long 7-2 ATS mark, the Cardinals are on pointspread streaks of 16-5 on the road (4-1 this year), 14-3 against winning teams, 9-4 in November and 22-10 in the MAC. The Chippewas are also on a bundle of positive ATS runs, including 30-10-3 overall, 14-2-1 at home (2-1 this year), 21-5-3 inside the MAC and 9-3 against winning teams.
The under for Ball State is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-1 in November and 7-3 on the road (3-0 last three), but the over for Central Michigan is on streaks of 13-5 overall (5-4 this year), 5-0 in November and 6-0 against winning teams. The over is also 3-1 in the last four meetings between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
South Florida (1-0 SU and ATS) at Virginia (1-0, 0-0 ATS)
South Florida looks to start a season with consecutive victories for the seventh time in the last eight years when it travels to Virginia for a non-conference contest.
The Bulls opened up with Friday’s 60-46 rout of SMU, cashing as a 10½-point home chalk. Defense carried the day for South Florida, which limited the Mustangs to 13 field goals in 47 tries (27.7 percent). The Bulls finished last year in a 2-15 slump (6-11 ATS), all against Big East opponents, and they haven’t won consecutive games since taking three in a row from Dec. 22-Jan. 1.
Virginia tipped off its season with Sunday’s 107-97 win over Virginia Military Institute (VMI) in a non-lined home game. The Cavaliers missed 13 of 16 three-point tries, but still ended up shooting 54.4 percent from the field overall and enjoyed a whopping 48-29 rebounding edge. Virginia (17-16, 13-15 ATS last year) has won seven of its last 10 dating to the end of last year and went 6-1 ATS in its last seven regular-season contests.
South Florida is on ATS runs of 8-1 in non-conference play and 23-9 following a SU win. Virginia carries negative ATS trends 1-4 at home, 0-4 in non-conference action, 0-5 against the Big East and 7-20 on Wednesday.
The under is on runs of 4-0 for South Florida overall in lined action, 7-0 for South Florida on the road and 5-1 for Virginia against the Big East. However, the over is 4-1 in the Cavs’ last five lined outings overall and 4-1 in its last five non-conference contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA
NBA
Cleveland (9-2, 8-3 ATS) at Detroit (7-3, 5-5 ATS)
The top two teams in the Central Division square off for the first time this season, as LeBron James and the Cavaliers pay a visit to The Palace of Auburn Hills for a battle with Allen Iverson and the Pistons.
Cleveland ran its winning streak to eight in a row (6-2 ATS) with last night’s 106-82 victory at New Jersey as a six-point road favorite. The Cavaliers are 3-0 SU and ATS on the road during their winning streak, and they’ve scored at least 100 points in all but one of the eight games, scoring 99 in the other contest.
Detroit comes into this one off a well-deserved three-day respite after a four-game West Coast road trip that started with three straight wins and covers – scoring in triple digits in each contest – before Sunday’s 104-86 blowout loss at Phoenix as a two-point underdog. The Pistons have played seven of their last eight games on the road going back to Nov. 3, with the only home game being an ugly 88-76 loss to Boston as a one-point home chalk. In fact, Flip Saunders’ squad has failed to cash in all three of its contests at The Palace this season.
The Pistons, who lost to the Cavaliers in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals, gained a measure of revenge in taking three of four from Cleveland last season both SU and ATS. In the two clashes in Motown, Detroit won by margins of 34 and 14 points, holding James to a combined 28 points in both contests.
Prior to last year, the Cavaliers had cashed in eight straight meetings against Detroit (playoffs included), including five straight in the Motor City. Over the last five series battles, the host is 4-1 ATS and the favorite is 5-0 ATS.
Going back to the playoffs last year, the Cavs are on ATS runs of 13-3 overall, 6-1 on the highway and 10-2 against the Eastern Conference, but the have failed to cash in seven of their last nine divisional outings. Meanwhile, Detroit sports ATS slides of 0-4 at home, 2-5 against the East and 4-9 when playing on Wednesdays.
For Cleveland, the over is on runs of 7-4 this season (6-1 last seven), 4-1 against the Eastern Conference and 4-0 in divisional tilts. The over is also 7-3 for Detroit this year (2-1 at home), 5-1 versus the East and 5-0 when playing on Wednesdays. Conversely, 25 of the last 31 meetings between these rivals – including five of the last six at The Palace – have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Denver (7-4, 7-3-1 ATS) at San Antonio (5-5, 4-6 ATS)
The depleted Spurs go for their fourth straight win as they attempt to climb above .500 for the first time this season when they host the Nuggets at the AT&T Center.
San Antonio started the season with three straight losses overall and three straight defeats at home. But during a four-day stretch, Gregg Popovich’s squad has ripped off three straight wins over the Rockets (home), Kings (road) and Clippers (road) by a combined seven points, cashing in all three contests as an underdog. The Spurs, who continue to play without All-Star guards Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, are 4-1 ATS in their last five after starting out with five consecutive non-covers.
The Nuggets are 6-1 (4-2-1 ATS) since point guard Chauncey Billups joined the lineup, and last night they dumped Milwaukee 114-105, pushing as a nine-point home chalk. Long known for offense, Denver has held four of its last six opponents to 90 points or less, with three of the last five foes scoring 85 or fewer.
Including a first-round playoff series in 2007, San Antonio has won six of the last eight against Denver, with the home team going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes. However, the Nuggets cashed in the final three battles with the Spurs last season, ending an 0-5 ATS slump against San Antonio. The favorite is on a 23-9 ATS roll in this rivalry and the SU winner has cashed in 11 of 12 meetings the last two years.
In addition to starting the season on a 7-3-1 ATS roll, the Nuggets are on additional pointspread hot streaks of 5-2 against the Western Conference, 8-1 versus the Southwest Division and 6-1 when playing on back-to-back nights. On the flip side, San Antonio has failed to cash in nine of its last 12 against the Northwest Division and six of its last eight on Wednesday.
For Denver, the under is on runs of 4-2 overall, 12-4 against the Western Conference and 19-7 against the Southwest Division. Also, San Antonio is in the midst of under streaks of 18-5-1 overall (7-3 this season), 4-0 at home, 13-3 against the West and 35-16 when playing on one day of rest.
Lastly, the under is 20-6 in the last 26 series meetings and 7-1 in the last eight tussles at the AT&T Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER