Service Plays Wednesday 11/19/08

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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

(14) Ball State (10-0, 7-2 ATS) at Central Michigan (8-2, 6-3 ATS)

Ball State, one of five remaining unbeaten teams in Division I-A, hits the road for a key Mid-American Conference clash against surging Central Michigan, with both teams sporting 6-0 SU marks in league play.

The Cardinals remained perfect by pulling away from Miami (Ohio) 31-16 last Tuesday night, narrowly failing to cash as a healthy 17½-point chalk, their second ATS setback in the last three games. Ball State was up by just four (17-13) at halftime but allowed only a field goal in the second half, and RB MiQuale Lewis (26 carries, 165 yards) had a 1-yard TD run in the third quarter and another 1-yard score in the fourth. The Cards finished with a 484-330 edge in total yards.

The Chippewas, playing their third straight road game, topped Northern Illinois 33-30 in overtime on Wednesday last week as a four-point road underdog for their sixth straight victory (4-2 ATS). Central Michigan blew a 30-14 fourth-quarter lead, getting shut out in the final frame as the Huskies forced OT, but the Chippewas got an INT to open the extra session, then won on Andrew Aguila’s 40-yard field goal. QB Dan LeFevour (19 of 26, 188 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient in the air, and he also ran for 121 yards and two more TDs.

Both squads are 4-2 ATS in MAC play and tied atop the West Division standings, but just a half-game ahead of Western Michigan.

Ball State features the nation’s ninth-ranked scoring defense (15.4 points per game allowed), and the offense ranks 12th in total offense (461 yards per game) and 15th in scoring (37.6 ppg). Meanwhile, Central Michigan has the 14th-rated passing attack (279.1).

Central Michigan is on streaks of 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in this rivalry, and going back 11 years, the Chips are 8-3 ATS against Ball State. The road team, however, is on a 5-2 ATS surge, which includes CMU’s 58-38 rout at Ball State last year as a 12-point road underdog. In the victory, the Chips nearly doubled the Cardinals in total offense, finishing with a 658-369 yardage edge.

Along with their season-long 7-2 ATS mark, the Cardinals are on pointspread streaks of 16-5 on the road (4-1 this year), 14-3 against winning teams, 9-4 in November and 22-10 in the MAC. The Chippewas are also on a bundle of positive ATS runs, including 30-10-3 overall, 14-2-1 at home (2-1 this year), 21-5-3 inside the MAC and 9-3 against winning teams.

The under for Ball State is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-1 in November and 7-3 on the road (3-0 last three), but the over for Central Michigan is on streaks of 13-5 overall (5-4 this year), 5-0 in November and 6-0 against winning teams. The over is also 3-1 in the last four meetings between these schools.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN


COLLEGE BASKETBALL

South Florida (1-0 SU and ATS) at Virginia (1-0, 0-0 ATS)

South Florida looks to start a season with consecutive victories for the seventh time in the last eight years when it travels to Virginia for a non-conference contest.

The Bulls opened up with Friday’s 60-46 rout of SMU, cashing as a 10½-point home chalk. Defense carried the day for South Florida, which limited the Mustangs to 13 field goals in 47 tries (27.7 percent). The Bulls finished last year in a 2-15 slump (6-11 ATS), all against Big East opponents, and they haven’t won consecutive games since taking three in a row from Dec. 22-Jan. 1.

Virginia tipped off its season with Sunday’s 107-97 win over Virginia Military Institute (VMI) in a non-lined home game. The Cavaliers missed 13 of 16 three-point tries, but still ended up shooting 54.4 percent from the field overall and enjoyed a whopping 48-29 rebounding edge. Virginia (17-16, 13-15 ATS last year) has won seven of its last 10 dating to the end of last year and went 6-1 ATS in its last seven regular-season contests.

South Florida is on ATS runs of 8-1 in non-conference play and 23-9 following a SU win. Virginia carries negative ATS trends 1-4 at home, 0-4 in non-conference action, 0-5 against the Big East and 7-20 on Wednesday.

The under is on runs of 4-0 for South Florida overall in lined action, 7-0 for South Florida on the road and 5-1 for Virginia against the Big East. However, the over is 4-1 in the Cavs’ last five lined outings overall and 4-1 in its last five non-conference contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA


NBA

Cleveland (9-2, 8-3 ATS) at Detroit (7-3, 5-5 ATS)

The top two teams in the Central Division square off for the first time this season, as LeBron James and the Cavaliers pay a visit to The Palace of Auburn Hills for a battle with Allen Iverson and the Pistons.

Cleveland ran its winning streak to eight in a row (6-2 ATS) with last night’s 106-82 victory at New Jersey as a six-point road favorite. The Cavaliers are 3-0 SU and ATS on the road during their winning streak, and they’ve scored at least 100 points in all but one of the eight games, scoring 99 in the other contest.

Detroit comes into this one off a well-deserved three-day respite after a four-game West Coast road trip that started with three straight wins and covers – scoring in triple digits in each contest – before Sunday’s 104-86 blowout loss at Phoenix as a two-point underdog. The Pistons have played seven of their last eight games on the road going back to Nov. 3, with the only home game being an ugly 88-76 loss to Boston as a one-point home chalk. In fact, Flip Saunders’ squad has failed to cash in all three of its contests at The Palace this season.

The Pistons, who lost to the Cavaliers in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals, gained a measure of revenge in taking three of four from Cleveland last season both SU and ATS. In the two clashes in Motown, Detroit won by margins of 34 and 14 points, holding James to a combined 28 points in both contests.

Prior to last year, the Cavaliers had cashed in eight straight meetings against Detroit (playoffs included), including five straight in the Motor City. Over the last five series battles, the host is 4-1 ATS and the favorite is 5-0 ATS.

Going back to the playoffs last year, the Cavs are on ATS runs of 13-3 overall, 6-1 on the highway and 10-2 against the Eastern Conference, but the have failed to cash in seven of their last nine divisional outings. Meanwhile, Detroit sports ATS slides of 0-4 at home, 2-5 against the East and 4-9 when playing on Wednesdays.

For Cleveland, the over is on runs of 7-4 this season (6-1 last seven), 4-1 against the Eastern Conference and 4-0 in divisional tilts. The over is also 7-3 for Detroit this year (2-1 at home), 5-1 versus the East and 5-0 when playing on Wednesdays. Conversely, 25 of the last 31 meetings between these rivals – including five of the last six at The Palace – have stayed under the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


Denver (7-4, 7-3-1 ATS) at San Antonio (5-5, 4-6 ATS)

The depleted Spurs go for their fourth straight win as they attempt to climb above .500 for the first time this season when they host the Nuggets at the AT&T Center.

San Antonio started the season with three straight losses overall and three straight defeats at home. But during a four-day stretch, Gregg Popovich’s squad has ripped off three straight wins over the Rockets (home), Kings (road) and Clippers (road) by a combined seven points, cashing in all three contests as an underdog. The Spurs, who continue to play without All-Star guards Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, are 4-1 ATS in their last five after starting out with five consecutive non-covers.

The Nuggets are 6-1 (4-2-1 ATS) since point guard Chauncey Billups joined the lineup, and last night they dumped Milwaukee 114-105, pushing as a nine-point home chalk. Long known for offense, Denver has held four of its last six opponents to 90 points or less, with three of the last five foes scoring 85 or fewer.

Including a first-round playoff series in 2007, San Antonio has won six of the last eight against Denver, with the home team going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes. However, the Nuggets cashed in the final three battles with the Spurs last season, ending an 0-5 ATS slump against San Antonio. The favorite is on a 23-9 ATS roll in this rivalry and the SU winner has cashed in 11 of 12 meetings the last two years.

In addition to starting the season on a 7-3-1 ATS roll, the Nuggets are on additional pointspread hot streaks of 5-2 against the Western Conference, 8-1 versus the Southwest Division and 6-1 when playing on back-to-back nights. On the flip side, San Antonio has failed to cash in nine of its last 12 against the Northwest Division and six of its last eight on Wednesday.

For Denver, the under is on runs of 4-2 overall, 12-4 against the Western Conference and 19-7 against the Southwest Division. Also, San Antonio is in the midst of under streaks of 18-5-1 overall (7-3 this season), 4-0 at home, 13-3 against the West and 35-16 when playing on one day of rest.

Lastly, the under is 20-6 in the last 26 series meetings and 7-1 in the last eight tussles at the AT&T Center.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER
 
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John Ryan

Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play:San Antonio Spurs +2

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on San Antonio – AiS shows a 79% probability that SA will win the game. SA has an 88% probability of scoring a minimum of 100 points in this game. Note that SA is a strong 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games when they score 99 to 104 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 55-31 ATS since 2001. Play against road teams winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in games being played in the month of November. SA is in a strong role noting they are 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games when playing against a good team posting a win Percentage of 60% to 70% over the last 2 seasons. Take San Antonio.
 
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Johnny Guild

Wednesday, November 19th, 2008

(14) Ball State Cardinals (10-0) at Central Michigan Chippewas (8-2)

Kelly/Shorts Stadium - Mount Pleasant, Michigan
Both offenses will light up the scoreboard. Take the home conference dog to cover the spread and possibly win outright against the Cardinals in tonight's clash. Central Michigan has won 18 of its past 20 MAC games and six of the last ten versus Ball State, going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games


C Michigan Chippewas +7



NBA

Wednesday, November 19, 2008 8:30 PM EST.
Denver Nuggets (7-4) at San Antonio Spurs (5-5)

Denver is playing strong defense. The Nuggets have limited four of its last six challengers to 90 points or less and San Antonio has step-up its defensive play. Expect a low scoring clash tonight at the AT&T Center. The total has gone ‘under’ in 10 of the last 12 meetings, 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in San Antonio.

Under -180
 
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Nostradamus

CBB-Appalachian St +1
CBB-Nebraska -3
CBB-Kent +1
CBB-Murray St +1

NBA-Cleveland +3.5
NBA-Philadelphia -3

NHL-Washington
 
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Dave Malinsky

Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs
PICK: 4* Denver Nuggets +1

We fully understand the line move in this one, which has now made the Spurs the favorite. We just do not agree with it, and it has opened the door for excellent value to the visitors.

Through the years Denver has had a poor ATS record in those rare occasions in which the Nuggets played a home game, and then had to go to the Central Time Zone the following night. It makes a great deal of sense – playing at the Denver altitude takes more out of a team than any other venue, and heading eastwards across a time zone actually means a loss of two hours of recovery and preparation, one for the time zone itself, and another because of the earlier tip-off time. We have followed this closely, and have taken advantage often, including some 6* plays in the past.

We do not believe that applies in any way tonight, however. The Nuggets were off on Monday, and Tuesday’s rout of Milwaukee was little more than a scrimmage – the stating lineup only played 134 of the 240 floor minutes, with no one going more than 28. In fact, reserves Linas Kleiza and J. R. Smith were on the court more than any starter. Instead of fatigue creating a negative it was the ideal way to prepare for this game, a nice comfortable scrimmage in which they built a 20-point lead, and continued the flow of confidence since Chauncey Billups came on board (they are 6-1 in his seven starts).

Yes, the Spurs enter this one on a three-game win streak, a remarkable achievement when four of your starters are Roger Mason, George Hill, Fabricio Oberto and Michael Finley (perhaps Bruce Bown here, instead of Finely, to try to check Carmelo Anthony a bit). But while that it a tribute to Pops, take it with a grain of salt. Three games back they did pull a stunner against Houston, out-scoring the Rockets 12-0 over the final 4:44 to gut out a 77-75 win. That was a major roll of the dice, but the last two wins were simply a case of out-smarting weak opponents in close games, as they escaped past the short-handed Kings and Clippers in struggles that went to the final possession. They have been buoyed by facing the 26th weakest schedule in the league so far this season, which helps to make them an over-rated item here, and we do not mind getting the far better team in this price range.
 

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Robert Ferringo college hoops

2-Unit Play. Take #541 Murray State (+1) over Arkansas State (8 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 19)
Murray State beat a better ASU team by 14 last year and should manage a ‘W’ here.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #539 Morehead State (+15.5) over Drake (8 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 19)

1-Unit Play. Take #523 Ball State (+14.5) over Butler (7 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 19)

2-Unit Play. Take #531 Kent State (-1) over St. Louis (8 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 19)
 
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RON RAYMOND'S 5* NBA BEST BET WINNER! (8-0 RUN)
Pick # 1 Sacramento Kings /New Orleans Hornets Over 195.5 -110



RON RAYMOND'S 5* NHL BEST BET WINNER
Pick # 1 Vancouver Canucks (120)
 

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igz1 sports

Wednesday Action !!
Tuesday Recap: 1-0 CFB (+80) pts : 1-0 NBA (+80) pts : 2-2 CBB (-16) pts

CFB
3* Central Michigan +7 (-110)

NHL
3* Boston -135
3* Under 5 (-120) Vancouver vs NY Rangers

NBA
3* Oklahoma City +1 (-110)
3* Chicago +7.5 (-110)

CBB
3* Charlotte -1.5 (-110)

Good Luck !!
 

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Hey Brady -- I really liked Oklahoma for a variety reasons yesterday although I'll never underestimate Curry again. I then saw Big Al, Dr. Bob, Larry Ness and PrimeTime Sports Advisors on Okie and hit it hard. I lost at minus five (82-78) Not sure how the others recorded it and would be curious to know but Larry Ness had it as a win. Not only didn't I get - 4 1/2 or the - 4 for the push but certainly didn't get the - 3 1/2 for the win. Did you play it and what did you get as a result -- perhaps the line really jumped? I know Oklahoma stuffed it on a breakaway after the buzzer went off but that didn't count and he certainly can't count it. Also wondering how Al, Bob and PrimeTime scored it. Thanks as it was an important play for me combined with others.

As per Larry Ness

<dl><dt class="dtPgTop"><small><small>Larry Ness | CBB Sides</small></small></dt><dt><small><small>772 Oklahoma -3.0 (-110) vs 771 Davidson </small></small></dt></dl>
 

Dr. Bob who?
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<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#dddddd"><td valign="top">Wizard of Odds</td> <td valign="top" align="right">Guaranteed Selections</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr> <td valign="top">Date: Wednesday, November 19, 2008
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</td> <td valign="top" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">11/19/2008</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2"> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="2">LATE BREAKING COLLEGE HOOPS STEAM WINNER
526 Virginia -7.5 7:00 EST</td></tr></tbody></table>
 

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Kelso

25 units Atl Hawks -9.5
3 units Pistons -4
3 units Kent St +1 (this was given out as +1, now line is -1.5 but was +1 at one time-You choose) Swept board yesterday and with FB
 

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