Sportswagers
WORLD SERIES (GM 2)
KANSAS CITY -111 over San Fran
Our concern with the Royals is that Ned Yost is going to get badly out-managed and could easily cost the Royals the World Series. Anyone watching last night could see right off the bat that James Shields was in big trouble but Yost thinks he’s managing game #70 in a 162-game schedule. He should have pulled him in the first and brought in Danny Duffy. By contrast, Bruce Bochy will yank a pitcher after one pitch if he thinks that pitcher doesn’t have his stuff. In the NLCS, Bochy was quick to pull Jake Peavy after four innings despite Peavy only allowing two runs and despite the Giants having the lead. In playoff baseball, there is no tomorrow but that’s a concept that Yost hasn’t quite grasped yet. When a team is getting great pitching and the offense is scoring runs, Barbara Streisand could manage that team. That takes us us to Game 2 of the World Series, where we are not that concerned with Yost getting out-managed by Bochy.
The struggles of 33-year-old Jake Peavy started way back in May when he was with the Red Sox and posted a 6.59 ERA in five starts. June and July were not that much better before he was traded to the Giants and reunited with the manager he pitched for when he was dominating in San Diego. That was a long time ago. A major problem is that he's walking a lot more batters than usual, leading to the worst command in his 13-year career. Since Peavy's hit % and strand % are in the normal range, there aren’t many signs that his xERA of 4.22 will improve any time soon. He no longer has the oomph to blow hitters away. While he averaged 94 mph average fastball in his salad days, he’s been consistently at 90 mph for the past four years and rarely does he go over that number. The drop in skills tells the story of Peavy's slide over the past couple of years and now he’s in a Catch-22 position. If Peavy is not coming at hitters he’ll walk too many and we all know what happens when the Royals get base-runners. If he comes at them, they are likely to tee off on him. Current Royals have seen Peavy plenty of times and in fact, they have a combined 58 hits off him in 196 AB’s for a BA of .296. Alex Gordon has 58 AB’s against Peavy and is hitting.357. Billy Butler has 14 hits in 37 AB’s for a BA of .424 and Alcides Escobar is 9 for 22 for a BA of .409. In those combined 196 AB’s against K.C., Peavy has struck out a mere 39 batters. Unless the Royals get a little over-anxious, Jake Peavy is in big trouble here.
None of the Giants have ever faced Yordano Ventura, not even for one at-bat. That has to work in the kids’ favor and it sure doesn’t hurt that he has nasty stuff. When we last saw Ventura, he was leaving Kansas City's Game 2 American League Championship Series victory over Baltimore with tightness in his shoulder in the sixth inning. However, the medical reports are fine and it’s been reported that his side sessions have been absolutely dynamite the past few days. According to FanGraphs, Ventura ranked first among big league starters with an average fastball reading of 97 mph this season. He also has wipeout breaking stuff and if he’s throwing strikes, the Giants are likely to be chasing his stuff all night. In the end, we have a significant edge on the mound with the starters and pens, a significant edge on the base-paths and a significant edge at the plate as well. The Royals should be at least -127 to -135 here but they’re not and that provides us with some nice value spotting this cheap price.
Our Pick
KANSAS CITY -111 (Risking 2.22 units - To Win: 2.00)
