John Ryan
50* Play
(I have been following Ryan for years and he is a legit capper. This year he released a 50* for the first time ever. It was in the NFL and he hit it. Now he is releasing his second play at that level ever and it is tonight.)
Game: San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals Oct 22 2014 8:05PM
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
Reason: 50* graded play on the Kansas City Royals as they take on the San Francisco Giants in Game 2 of the World Series set to start at 8:07 PM ET. This is a must win for KC, who now is coming off their first loss in nine playoff games. There are several factors to blame the loss on in last night's sputtering defeat and I fully expect this very resilient team to put in a far superior effort tonight. Given the size of the wager there is a solid optional alternative using a combination wager comprised of a 35* play on the money line and then adding a 15* play using the juicy Run Line. Starting pitcher Ventura is a perfect 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line facing teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of this season. (Team's Record); 11-3 (+7.9 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. (Team's Record); 14-3 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record). SF is just 8-17 (-13.0 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive 'overs' this season. KC is a solid 21-7 (+12.9 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 this season. Peavy is just 5-7 when starting against KC in 14 career starts with an ERA of 4.97 and a WHIP of 1.380. Ventura has never faced the Giants and this a huge advantage for him in this start. Scouting reports can provide in depth pitching tendencies, sequences, motions, and more, but nothing prepares a hitter at any level for the actual live matchup. This type of situation nearly always goes to the pitcher and I strongly believe that this will be the case tonight. Truly, Ventura's goal is complete six innings and then turn it over the near-unhittable three-headed monster bullpen. Not one player on the Giants roster has faced him in their career and can offer type of experience that may help. Like so many starters, he is most effective throwing strike one in any AB. After an 0-1 count batters are hitting just 0.207 versus 0.255 after a 1-0 count. Further, batters are hitting just 0.198 on his first 15 deliveries so I fully expect him to get through the first several innings well. In case you were wondering, batters are hitting just 0.145 after an 0-1 count and he pitches his best overall with RISP allowing a 0.213 BA to opponents. Peavy has been great recently, but this KC lineup is not one that he will like facing. The current members of the Royals have batted 0.296 with a 0.346 OBP, and 0.490 slugging percentage in their respective careers spanning 196 AB. Billy Butler is batting 0.424 with a 0.486 OBP and 0.727 slugging % with 3 bombs in 33 career AB against Peavy. Alex Gordon is 10-for-28 for a 0.357 BA, Alcides Escobar is 9-for-22 for a solid 0.408 BA and 2 HR. Back to Venura for some additional insight. I mentioned that Giants have never faced him. Well, he throws four-seem fastball at 98 MPH and can vary the grip just slightly to create a very heavy downward sinking motion. He then can throw a change that is excellent and comes out fo the same arm slot as the four-seem FB and is an optimal 10-12 MPH slower with batters swing out in front adn over the top of it. Then look for what scouts call the Spike curve, which I am sure the announcers will identify as a knuckle curve. It is essentially a two-seem fastball with the index finger tucked under the ball. Again, it will look FB out of the hand, but due to the spin and slower speed, will drop late and sharp. Take Kansas City.