SPORTS ADVISORS
Milwaukee (90-72) at Philadelphia (92-70)
Back in the postseason for the first time in more than a quarter century, the Brewers will send youngster Yovani Gallardo (0-0, 1.88 ERA) to the mound against the Phillies, who will counter with ace Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09) in Game 1 of a best-of-5 playoff series at Citizens Bank Park.
Milwaukee edged out the Mets for the National League wild card, topping the Cubs 3-1 on Sunday while New York was losing 4-2 to Florida. The Brewers, who haven’t played meaningful October baseball since losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1982 World Series, lost 15 of their first 19 games in September, but closed on a 6-1 run. However, they did lose eight of their 10 road games in September.
Philadelphia began its late-season push to its second straight N.L. East title with a four-game sweep of the Brewers from Sept. 11-14. Beginning with that series, the Phillies won 13 of their final 16 games, going 8-2 at home during this surge. Philadelphia, which has reached the postseason in consecutive years for the first time since 1980-81, was on the wrong end of a three-game first-round playoff sweep against the Rockies last season, getting outscored 16-8. The Phillies haven’t won a postseason game since 1993.
Milwaukee beat the Phillies 5-4 in the first meeting of the season back on April 23, but the Phillies won the last five by the combined tally of 29-11, holding the Brewers to three runs or fewer in all five wins. Milwaukee is just 5-15 all-time at Citizens Bank Park, including 1-8 in the last nine.
Gallardo missed the first three weeks of the season with an injury, then after three outstanding starts (four earned runs allowed in 20 innings), the right-hander blew out his knee in his team’s 4-3 win at Chicago on May 1. After lengthy rehab, he returned on Thursday to face the Pirates and went four innings, giving up a run on three hits with two walks and seven strikeouts, failing to get a decision in the Brewers’ 5-1 victory.
Gallardo, who started 17 games as a rookie last season, is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA in 11 career games (10 starts) on the road, compared with 4-3 with a 4.24 ERA in Milwaukee. In his lone career start against Philadelphia last year, he gave up one run on four hits in 6 2/3 innings, walking one and striking out seven in a 2-1 home victory.
Hamels closed out a solid 2007 season with a 3-2 home loss to the Braves on Sept. 23, giving up all three runs (two earned) in seven innings. Hamels surrendered two earned runs or fewer in 22 of his 33 starts, including nine of his last 10, but the Phillies are just 5-6 in the southpaw’s 11 starts since the beginning of August.
Hamels is 7-7 despite a 2.99 ERA in 17 starts at Citizens Bank Park this year and 2-1 with a 4.41 ERA in five career starts against the Brewers, including a 7-3 home win on Sept. 13 when he gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings. However, he suffered a 5-4 loss at Milwaukee in April, giving up all five runs in seven innings. Finally, in his only career playoff start last October, Hamels gave up three runs on three hits and four walks in 6 2/3 innings, losing 4-2 to the Rockies at home.
The over is 5-2-1 in the eight series meetings between these teams (2-0-1 in Philly this year). Also, the over is 10-4-1 in the Phillies’ last 14 at Citizens Bank and 5-2-3 in Milwaukee’s last nine on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
L.A. Dodgers (84-78) at Chicago Cubs (97-64)
The Cubs begin their quest for their first world championship in 100 years when they send Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96) to the Wrigley Field mound for Game 1 of this best-of-5 series against the Dodgers and Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24).
The Cubs cruised to their second straight N.L. Central crown and finished the season with the National League’s best overall record and best home mark (55-26). However, Chicago, which split its final 12 regular-season contests, got swept in the best-of-5 divisional round against the Diamondbacks last year, getting outscored 16-6. The Cubs haven’t won the World Series since 1908 or even played in the Fall Classic since 1945, and they’re looking to return to the N.L. Championship Series for the first time since 2003.
Los Angeles used an 18-5 run down the stretch to leapfrog Arizona and win the N.L. West title in manager Joe Torre’s first year with the club. The Dodgers, who won 10 of their final 15 road games, have reached the playoffs four times since winning the 1988 World Series, losing all four series while winning just one of 13 postseason games.
The Cubs beat the Dodgers five times in seven tries in the regular season, including sweeping a three-game set at Wrigley Field in late May by the combined tally of 8-3, with L.A. scoring a single run in all three contests.
Dempster, who returned to the starting rotation this year after several seasons as Chicago’s closer, was far and away the Cubs’ best pitcher at Wrigley Field this year, going 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 17 starts. The veteran right-hander gave up three earned runs or fewer in 27 of his 33 outings overall, including holding 22 of those foes to two runs or fewer. He went 7-2 with a 2.52 ERA in his 13 starts after the All-Star break.
Dempster faced the Dodgers twice this year, giving up a combined four runs and 13 hits in 12 1/3 innings, winning 3-1 at home and getting a no-decision in Chicago’s 5-4 victory in Los Angeles. For his career, he’s 4-3 with a 3.01 ERA and six saves in 19 career appearances (nine starts) against the Dodgers. Finally, Dempster’s playoff experience is limited to one perfect inning of relief last year against Arizona, striking out two.
Lowe closed the regular season with a flourish, giving up just six total runs in his last nine starts covering 57 2/3 innings, good for a 0.94 ERA. He also went 3-1 with a 1.23 ERA in his last five outings on the road to finish 5-6 with a 4.42 ERA in 17 starts away from Dodger Stadium.
Lowe went 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two starts against the Cubs in 2008, giving up three runs on 10 hits in 14 innings, with the Dodgers winning at home and losing on the highway. For his career, Lowe is 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA in eight starts against Chicago. Finally, Lowe has a ton of postseason experience, going 4-4 with a 3.34 ERA in 18 appearances (seven starts) totaling 67 1/3 innings.
The under was 5-2 in the seven Cubs-Dodgers clashes this year, including 3-0 at Wrigley Field. Also, four of Dempster’s last five starts overall have stayed low, and the under is 9-3-1 in Lowe’s last 13 outings against N.L. Central foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS and UNDER
A.L. DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
Boston (95-67) at L.A. Angels (100-62)
The Red Sox and Angels clash in the first round of the playoffs for the third time since 2004, with Los Angeles looking to finally get over the hump against Boston. John Lackey (12-5, 3.75) takes the ball for the Halos in Game 1 at home against Red Sox southpaw Jon Lester (16-6, 3.21).
Although the Angels got the best of the Red Sox in the regular season in 2008, winning eight of nine clashes, Boston has had L.A.’s number in the postseason, sweeping Mike Scioscia’s club in the divisional round in 2004 and 2007 en route to winning the World Series both times. The BoSox also won a seven-game A.L. Championship Series against the Angels in 1986 and enter tonight with a nine-game postseason winning streak in this rivalry.
Los Angeles was the first team to clinch a playoff berth and finished with baseball’s best record, posting an identical 50-31 mark both at home and on the road. Despite wrapping up a playoff berth early, the Angels still won 13 of their last 18 games, including a pair of five-game winning streaks.
The Red Sox, who outscored the Angels 19-4 in last year’s playoff sweep en route to the World Series title, claimed the A.L. wild-card berth this season by going 19-10 in September. However, Terry Francona’s club struggled on the road in 2008, going 39-42 (compared with 56-25 at Fenway Park). The Sox lost all three games at Angel Stadium back in July, getting outscored 20-8.
The last time Lester was on the mound in October, he was leading Boston to a World Series-clinching victory over the Rockies, scattering three hits and three walks over 5 2/3 innings, winning 4-3 in Game 4. In all, Lester appeared in three postseason games last year, allowing two runs, six hits and four walks in 9 1/3 innings (1.93 ERA).
Lester gave up one run or less in five of his last six regular-season efforts, and Boston went 22-11 in his 33 starts. However, the Sox were only 7-9 in Lester’s 16 starts on the road, with the young lefty going 5-5 with a 4.09 ERA (as opposed to 11-1 with a 2.49 ERA at home). Finally, Lester has struggled in four career starts against Los Angeles, going 1-1 with a 7.78 ERA, including 1-0 with an 8.64 ERA in two outings at Angel Stadium.
Lackey went 11-2 with a 2.95 ERA in his first 19 starts, with the Angels winning 14 of those games. However, the big right-hander stumbled down the stretch, going 1-3 with a 7.96 ERA in his last five trips to the mound. In fact, his worst outing of the season came Friday at home against Texas, when he got drilled for 10 runs on 12 hits in just 2 2/3 innings, losing 12-1.
With Friday’s disastrous outing, Lackey ended up 5-3 with a 4.29 ERA in 12 home starts this season. On the bright side, he dominated Boston in two starts this year (2-0, 2.81 ERA) after going 1-7 with a 6.24 ERA in 12 previous regular-season outings against the Red Sox. Finally, Lackey is 2-2 with a 3.63 ERA in nine career postseason appearances (seven starts) with the Angels, but one of those losses came against the Red Sox last October when he yielded four runs on nine hits in six innings in a 4-0 loss at Boston in Game 1.
The under is 9-3 in L.A.’s last 12 home games and 4-1 in Boston’s last five contests overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Louisiana Tech (2-1, 1-1 ATS) at (17) Boise State (3-0, 1-1 ATS)
Boise State returns to action for the first time since an impressive upset win at Oregon, with the Broncos opening Western Athletic Conference play against Louisiana Tech.
The Broncos took advantage of four turnovers at Oregon on Sept. 20 and jumped out to a 37-13 lead heading into the fourth quarter, then held off a furious Ducks rally to win 37-32 as a 10-point road underdog. Going back to September 2005, Chris Peterson’s squad is 35-5 SU, including 22-2 in the WAC, but just 13-10-1 ATS in league play.
Louisiana Tech bounced back from an ugly 29-0 loss at Kansas on Sept. 6 with a 41-26 rout of Division I-AA Southeastern Louisiana in a non-lined home game on Sept. 20. The Bulldogs have alternated wins and losses in their last seven games, going 1-4 ATS in their last five lined contests.
Louisiana Tech won the first four meetings with the Broncos from the mid-1990s to 2001, but Boise State has controlled this series since, winning six in a row (3-3 ATS) by an average of 24 points per game. Last year, the Broncos went to Louisiana and struggled for three quarters before finally putting the Bulldogs away 45-31, failing to cash as a 16½-point road chalk as La-Tech found the end zone with 90 seconds to play to get the backdoor cover.
The last two times Boise has hosted the Bulldogs, it won by identical 55-14 final scores, cashing easily both times. In fact, the host is 7-2 ATS (5-4 SU) in this rivalry since 1997.
Behind the strong play of quarterback Kellen Moore (71.8 percent completion rate, 840 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT), Boise State’s explosive offense is putting up 35.3 points and 448.7 total yards per game, including 306 yards through the air and 142.7 yards on the ground. Defensively, the Broncos yield 15.3 points and 326 total yards per contest, but 148.3 rushing ypg.
The Bulldogs have been outscored (23 ppg-21 ppg) and outgained (445-328) on the season, but they do hold a commanding rushing edge, outrushing foes 164-97. However, Louisiana Tech has struggled in a big way in the passing game, producing just 163.7 ypg in the air and allowing opposing QBs to throw for 348 ypg.
Boise State has won all 28 of its WAC home games since joining the conference in 2001, and the school is 14-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in weekday regular-season contests (10-0 SU, 7-1 ATS at home). Additionally, the Broncos are on ATS streaks of 37-16-1 on the blue turf and 4-1 in WAC play.
On the other hand, Louisiana Tech is mired in pointspread funks of 9-22 on the highway, 6-24-1 after a SU win, 6-20 versus teams with a winning record and 5-12 after a bye.
The over is 4-1 in the last five series clashes between these teams, 5-2 in Boise’s last seven in October and 15-6-1 in La-Tech’s last 22 in October. Conversely, the under is on runs of 4-0 for the Bulldogs overall, 6-2 for the Bulldogs on the highway, 5-2 for the Bulldogs in conference, 4-0 for the Bulldogs after a bye and 4-1 for Boise State in WAC action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOISE STATE
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