THE SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 7
NLDS
Colorado (92-70) at Philadelphia (93-68)
The defending World Series champion Phillies, coming off their third straight N.L. East title, open up what they hope will be a repeat playoff run against the National League wild-card winning Rockies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Colorado is sending right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez (15-12, 3.47 ERA) to the hill opposite Philadelphia southpaw Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.22) in Game 1 of the best-of-5 division series.
Philadelphia has dominated this series lately, winning nine of the last 11 meetings overall – all decided by multiple runs – including five of the last six in the City of Brotherly Love. This year, the Phillies took two of three against Colorado both at home and on the road. However, two years ago, the Rockies shocked Philadelphia in the first round, winning 4-2 and 10-5 at Citizens Bank Park, then closing things out with a 2-1 road win.
The Rockies finished the regular season on a 5-2 roll as they made a run at the Dodgers in the race for the N.L. West crown, only to fall short on Saturday. Colorado is on positive runs of 5-1 as an underdog, 6-1 against the N.L. East and 4-0 in series openers. However, they were swept in the 2007 World Series by the Red Sox, and they’re on current slides of 4-10 against teams with a winning record and 1-6 on the road against left-handed starters.
The Phillies won the N.L. East by six games over the Marlins, but they finished by losing eight of their last 13 contests, going 1-4 in their last five against teams with winning records. Still, Charlie Manuel’s squad is on a plethora of positive streaks, including 32-13 at home, 7-1 against the N.L. West, 7-0 in home playoff games, 30-11 as a home chalk and 6-1 in playoff games after last year’s World Series run.
Colorado has won nine of Jimenez’s last 12 starts overall and six of his last seven after getting four days off, but with the right-hander on the hill, the Rockies are also on slides of 12-25 on the road, 7-18 as a road ‘dog and 1-4 on the road against winning teams.
Jimenez was 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA in his final three starts of the season, including a gem in his final start on Friday when he held the Dodgers to one run on two hits in six innings, striking out 10 and walking four in a 4-3 win in Los Angeles. He has faced the Phillies twice in the regular season, both times at Citizens Bank Park, and he allowed a total of nine runs on 14 hits in 10 innings of work with the Rockies losing both by scores of 6-5 and 7-4. However, Jimenez made the start in Colorado’s 2-1 Game 3 clincher against the Phillies at Coors Field, yielding the one run on three hits with four walks and five strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings.
Lee, the reigning A.L. Cy Young Award winner, made 12 starts in a Phillies uniform after being acquired in late-July from Cleveland. He won his first five starts after joining the senior circuit, allowing just six runs (three earned) in 40 innings (0.68 ERA). However, he only had one quality start in his final seven outings and finished 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA with the Phillies.
Lee last pitched on Thursday at home against the Astros, giving up four runs (three earned) in 5 2/3 innings of a 5-3 loss, dropping to 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA in five starts at Citizens Bank. The southpaw’s lone career start against the Rockies came at home on Aug. 6, and he gave up one run on six hits in seven innings, striking out nine and walking one as he recorded a 3-1 victory.
While Jimenez went 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts during the 2007 playoffs for Colorado, this is Lee’s first-ever playoff appearance.
With Jimenez on the hill, Colorado is on several “under” runs, including 15-5-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the road, 8-2 when he faces N.L. East teams and 25-10 when he starts after four days of rest. As a team, the Rockies are on “over” streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 4-1-1 in series openers and 4-0 after getting a day off.
The Phillies have stayed below the total in four of their last six playoff games and six straight as a playoff favorite, but otherwise the team is on “over” streaks of 12-3-1 overall, 4-1-1 at home, 8-1-1 against right-handed starters, 4-0 in series openers and 9-1-1 as a favorite. Finally, the “over” has been the play in eight of the 11 matchups between these teams since the beginning of last season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
St. Louis (91-71) at L.A. Dodgers (95-67)
Division winners square off in Game 1 of their best-of-5 NLDS at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles when the Cardinals send Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24 ERA) to the hill opposite Dodgers’ lefty Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.28).
St. Louis took five of the seven series matchups with the Dodgers this season and have gone 11-4 in the last 15, including 4-2 in Southern California. Going back further, the Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 trips to Dodger Stadium and 36-16 in the last 52 meetings overall.
The Cardinals struggled in the final week of the season, going 1-6 overall, 1-7 as a favorite and 1-4 as a road favorite, costing them a shot at the National League’s best record and home-field advantage in the first two rounds. However, St. Louis still finished the regular season on runs of 14-6 against left-handed starters, 22-5 in series openers, 16-6 against N.L. West teams and 9-3 after an off-day. The Cardinals have traditionally been a tough out in the playoffs, going 5-1 in their last six playoff games overall (all en route to the 2006 title), 17-5 in NLDS games and 4-0 in NLDS road affairs.
The Dodgers struggled down the stretch, losing five straight games almost blowing the N.L. West title to the surging Rockies. However, they woke up in time to beat Colorado on Saturday (5-0) and Sunday (5-3) to not only claim their second straight division championship but also home-field advantage throughout the N.L. playoffs. Los Angeles is on positive streaks of 4-1 at home, 7-3 against right-handed starters and 5-1 as an underdog, but it still finished on slides of 1-4 in series openers, 2-6 after an off day and 2-8 on Wednesdays.
With Carpenter pitching, St. Louis is on impressive surges of 92-38 overall (13-4 last 17), 39-19 when he’s a road favorite, 21-6 against N.L. West teams, 25-4 after getting five days off and 35-10 when he starts the first game of a series.
Carpenter went 9-2 with a 2.05 ERA on the road this season and allowed just one run over his last 20 innings of work, including five shutout innings on Thursday in Cincinnati, striking out six, walking one and hitting a grand slam in a 13-0 rout of the Reds. The veteran right-hander had 22 quality starts – at least six innings pitched while allowing three earned runs or fewer – in his 28 trips to the mound, and he yielded two runs or fewer in 20 of those 28 games.
Carpenter has dominated the Dodgers in his career, going 5-0 with a 2.20 ERA in six career starts covering 41 innings, including 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two games this year (6-1 home win; 3-2 road win). St. Louis has never lost to L.A. with Carpenter starting.
With Wolf on the hill, the Dodgers are on several positive runs, including 9-2 overall, 19-7 at home, 4-1 against the N.L. Central and 5-1 when he faces teams with a winning record. He was 4-3 at home with a 3.63 ERA this season, but L.A. finished 13-5 in his 18 outings at Dodger Stadium.
Wolf last pitched on Friday, holding the Rockies to two runs on five hits in five innings, but he got a no-decision as the Dodgers fell 4-3 at home. Wolf allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his final 10 regular-season starts and two runs or fewer in 13 of his final 18 outings, with 15 of those 18 qualifying as quality starts.
Wolf faced Carpenter and the Cardinals on July 27 in St. Louis and gave up two runs in six innings, but Los Angeles lost 6-1. Wolf is 3-5 with a 3.64 ERA in 10 career starts (64 1/3 innings) versus the Redbirds.
Carpenter’s postseason experience is limited to the 2005 and 2006 seasons with St. Louis, and he went 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA in eight starts, including 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA in three division-series outings. Wolf has never pitched in the playoffs.
With Carpenter on the hill, St. Louis is on “under” runs of 5-1 in series openers, 4-1 against N.L. West teams and 5-1 against teams with winning records, while as a team, the Phillies are on “under” streaks of 20-8 in playoff road games, 21-6-3 on Wednesdays, 20-8-2 against southpaws and 6-2 against the N.L. West.
It’s been all “overs” for the Dodgers, including 4-0-2 in Wolf’s last six starts overall, 5-1 when he’s a home ‘dog and 10-4-1 when he faces a winning team at home, plus the team is on “over” runs of 7-1-1 against winning teams, 4-1-1 at home and 6-1-1 against right-handed starters.
In this rivalry, the “under” is 9-4 overall dating to the start of 2008, including 5-1 in Southern California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
ALDS
Minnesota (87-76) at N.Y. Yankees (103-59)
Less than 24 hours after capturing the A.L. Central title with a thrilling, 12-inning victory over the Tigers in a one-game playoff, the Twins return to action in the Bronx when they open the best-of-5 American League Division Series against the Yankees. Rookie Brian Duensing (5-2, 3.64) will toe the rubber for Minnesota, while the Yankees counter with ace CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37).
The Twins rallied from deficits of 3-0 and 5-4 to outlast Detroit 6-5 at home last night, completing a stunning rally in which they made up seven games in the standings over the final 3½ weeks. Minnesota enters this playoff series on a five-game win streak and they’re on positive runs of 17-4 overall, 7-3 on the road and 5-0 against left-handed starters. On the downside, Minnesota has lost 38 of 55 road games to lefty starters and 36 of 52 against the A.L. East, and Ron Gardenhire’s squad is also 3-13 in its last 16 playoff games, losing six straight ALDS contests.
New York ended the regular season on a 41-17 surge to capture the A.L. East title and become the only team to win 100-plus contests in 2009. The Yankees are also on runs of 41-13 in their new stadium, 37-14 against the A.L. Central, 40-17 versus teams with a winning record and 42-14 on Wednesday. However, Joe Girardi’s squad, which has made the postseason 14 of the last 15 years, has lost back-to-back divisional series, going 1-6.
The Yankees have absolutely owned Minnesota in recent years, going 47-16 in the last 63 meetings, including 23-3 during Gardenhire’s tenure with the Twins. Also, the Yankees are 25-5 in the last 30 clashes in the Bronx. This year, New York went 7-0 against Minnesota, and while four of the contests were decided by one run (and another in extra innings), the Yankees hit .300, averaged 5.9 runs per game and had a 3.27 team ERA, while the Twins batted .232, averaged 3.6 runs per contest and posted a 5.45 ERA.
Duensing appeared in 24 games with the Twins this season, making nine starts, with Minnesota going 6-3 (2-2 on the road). Over his last two starts, both on the highway, the right-hander gave up nine runs (eight earned) in 10 1/3 innings (6.97 ERA), with the Twins winning 8-6 at Chicago and losing 6-5 at Detroit. Duensing’s only career appearance came against the Yankees on July 7 at home – a game Sabathia started – and the Kansas native got rocked for four runs on two hits and four walks in 2 2/3 innings of relief, with the Twins losing 10-2.
Sabathia had an outstanding first season with the Yankees, leading the team in wins, ERA, innings pitched and strikeouts. He had a nine-game winning streak halted in his final regular-season outing Friday at Tampa Bay, when he allowed a season-high nine runs (five earned) on eight hits in just 2 2/3 innings, losing 13-4. Prior to that, the hefty lefty had posted a 1.62 ERA over his previous 10 starts with 80 strikeouts against just 19 walks.
Sabathia finished 7-2 with a 3.17 ERA in 15 starts at home, with New York winning his last seven in a row in the Bronx, and he’s 13-8 with a 3.05 ERA in 28 career starts versus Minnesota. In the 10-2 win in Minneapolis back on July 7, he surrendered a run on three hits over seven innings. Since the start of the 2007 season, Sabathia has given up a total of 10 earned runs in eight starts versus the Twins over 58 2/3 innings (1.53 ERA). The one negative for Sabathia: He’s 2-3 with a 7.92 ERA in five career playoff starts.
Minnesota is on “over” streaks of 6-0-1 overall, 6-2-1 on the road and 5-0 against left-handed starters, but the under is 18-6-2 in its last 26 against the A.L. East and 8-3-3 in its last 14 on Wednesday. For New York, the “under” is on runs of 5-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 at home, 4-0 on Wednesday, 4-1-1 versus the A.L. Central and 5-1-1 with Sabathia pitching at home.
Finally, the under is 27-11-4 in the last 42 Twins-Yankees battles in New York (2-1-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
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