here is analysis......
vegas-runner | CBB Sides
Triple-Dime Bet
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686 San Diego St. -3.0 (-120) BetUS vs 685 St. Mary's (Cal.) <DD>Analysis: ***** NIT TOURNAMENT 5* GAME of the YEAR *****
(BUY the 1/2 PT down to -3)
As soon as St Mary's took care of Davidson, I knew I'd be looking to back San Diego St in their next one...if of course the number was offering Value...The reason for that is simple, SDSt has been sitting back awaiting the Winner, and getting a chance to rest up and practice for 4 days...while St Mary's had to play Davidson on Monday Night...
More importantly, the heart and soul of St Mary's, Mills was definitely looking to play his best game against the well known Curry...and he didn't disappoint...
Now though, they have to face a team who they already beat during the season...on a short turn around...And I really feel that gives SD St a significant Edge
Also, when you take a close look at that 1st Match-up between the 2, you will notice that SD St was a 3pt Fav...who lost the game SU by 3...But dig a little deeper and you will notice that SD St played terrible in that December meeting...Shooting only 33% from the FT LINE...Yes, I said 33%...so at 60% they could have very easily gotten the Win...
Finally, SD St is as UNDER-VALUED of a team as you will find this late in the Season...and the "Public Perception" is actually that St Mary's is the Better Team...And they couldn't be more Wrong...
Not only do I have SDSt Ranked Higher than them in my PR...making them a 4Pt Fav in this match-up...But add to that the fact they have played the Tougher Schedule...are just as mature...and Playing at Home...and that "True Number" is more like -7.5/-8...
Also, LVSC's own Ken White admitted that no team is playing better than SD St is right now...and stated that this line could have easily been sent out much higher due to all the surrounding circumstances...But with the mis-leading loss early in the season to St Mary's...and the fact the Public is going to back them over SD St even at a Pick...There was no need to go higher than what they sent out...
So Bottom Line, we have a situation that really favors the HOME team...and a HUGE EDGE on the Line...Now they just need to go out and play to their capabilities, and no need to play beyond...And we should be able to get the Money...and Win our
NIT 5* GOY with
SAN DIEGO ST Tonight...VR
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Wed, 03/25/09 - 8:05 PMvegas-runner | NBA Money Line
Double-Dime Bet <DT>
678 ORL (-130) SportBet vs 677 BOS <DD>Analysis: ** NBA 2* (5.5PT) BONUS TEASER PLAY of the DAY **
SIXERS -4.5 & MAGIC +2...(2*)
Although these TEASERS don't get GRADED for BetLikeAPro...Since I'm betting it for myself, I decided that I would pass it along, VR...
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