All Comps!!
Jeff Hochman
Saint Marys CA vs. San Diego State
Play: San Diego State -3
St. Marys has trouble with teams that are more athletic and faster than they are. I believe SD State will be a step quicker. St. Marys also doesn't get many steals and are kinda sloppy on offense. SD State by 6!
Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take Oregon State, how can I not!?!?!?
I have been riding Craig Robinson's much improved Beavers squad for awhile now. This team is just not the same garbage they have been over the past few years and right now are a competitive bunch that not only wants to continue their season but just may with another win today.
These teams have met three times already this season with OSU winning the first two and Stanford taking the last meeting in the Pac-10 tournament. The Beavs even dominated that first half and led that game by eight points at the break before getting whacked a bit in the first five minutes of the second half in the loss and one point non-cover. But all in all State has been the better team when facing the Cardinal and now at home should be extremely confident and fired up today.
OSU has already won a few tournament games at home and are lucky enough to get another here against Anthony Goods and what is probably the more talented team in Stanford but a team that is far from being all that. Today's visitors lost the Lopez Brothers to the NBA and in the first month of the season you would never know it as things were phenomenal and way overachieving early on. But it evened out and the Cardinal lost a whole lot and became what they should have been all along which is mediocre at the very best.
I do expect a tight game and like it has been of late OSU has learned how to win and should win. Robinson has proven to be a miracle worker in this his first season and I expect another semi one tonight!
Bobby Maxwell
Kentucky at NOTRE DAME -3
If it's a no-problem, FREE winner you're looking for, we've got it right here on the college hardwood as we play Notre Dame to get the job done at home over Kentucky.
People tend to forget this Notre Dame squad was playing some pretty good basketball coming down the stretch in the always tough Big East conference and this line is a little short in our estimation, especially with the Irish getting Kentucky in South Bend, Indiana.
Notre Dame edged New Mexico 70-68 on Thursday, but failed to cover as a five-point favorite. The Irish have won eight of their last 12 games and four of their last five. Remember this team went to UConn and played the Huskies right down to the wire fbefore losing in the final minute.
Kentucky edged Creighton 65-63 on Monday, covering as a 2 1/2-point favorite. It's the first time they have won consecutive games since late-January. The Wildcats are on ATS slides of 5-10 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-5 after a spread-cover and 1-4 on Wednesdays.
Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in its last four after a non-cover and these guys seem to be focused on the task at hand. Look for the Irish to control the pace and dominate this one.
4♦ NOTRE DAME
Carlo Campanella
Minnesota T'Wolves at Philadelphia 76ers
Minnesota is a much more profitable team on the road this season, where they own a 21-14 ATS record. They find themselves getting double digits in Philadelphia on Wednesday night, and we're taking, as these T-Wolves match up perfectly against Philadelphia and have now WON and COVERED in 4 of the last 5 meetings, including a 102-96 home win in the last game earlier this season.
Play on: Minnesota
Tom Freese
Utah at Phoenix
Utah is 37-18 ATS off a double digit win and they are 7-2 ATS vs. an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. The Jazz are 7-3 ATS off an ATS Win and they are 9-4 ATS vs. NBA Pacific Division foes. Phoenix is 8-20 ATS their last 28 games vs. winning teams and they are 1-4 ATS when playing with one day of rest. The Suns are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games as home favorites of 4.5 or less points and they are 1-10 ATS their last 11 home games vs. the Jazz. PLAY ON UTAH +
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Phoenix Suns -3.5
Utah has lost 3 of its last 4 on the road and will have its work cut out for itself tonight against a Suns team which has won 5 in a row and is fighting hard for the playoffs. Utah just played last night and then had to travel out to Phoenix late and I can assure you that playing the Suns without fresh legs is no treat. In fact, Utah is just 11-24 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. The Suns are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Lay the number.
Ben Burns
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
I cashed a big ticket with the Warriors when they defeated the Mavericks a couple of weeks ago. However, that was at Oakland and the Warriors were well-rested. Tonight's spot is much more difficult.
For starters, the Warriors on the road instead of at home. That's noteworthy as they're an ugly 6-30 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, when playing away from home. That includes a money-burning 7-18 ATS (3-22 SU) mark, when they've played a road game with an over/under line of 210 or greater.
Additionally, the Warriors come off an extremely hard-fought loss at San Antonio last night. This is tougher than a "typical" back to back spot though. That's because they'll also be playing their sixth game in nine nights. That's an exhausting stretch, particularly a banged-up Warriors team that runs up and down the floor so much.
Conversely, the Mavericks haven't played since way back on Friday. Note that the Mavs are 17-12 ATS on the season, when facing a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. They're also 10-5 ATS their last 15 games against teams which allow greater than 99 points per game. Additionally, the Mavs are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five times they hosted the Warriors. They won those five games by an average of 20 points, with each of the last three meetings here resulting in double-digit victories. They should definitely be the "fresher" team tonight and that should lead to another double-digit victory. Consider laying the points.
Jorge Gonzalez
Kentucky vs. Notre Dame
Play: Kentucky +2½
Kentucky (22-13) has shown that they are still motivated despite not making the tournament and the heat that Billy Gillespie is under in just his second year as the head coach. The Wildcats escaped the second round with a thrilling 65-63 victory over Creighton in front of a raucous crowd in Omaha, Neb., on Monday. Despite speculation and rumors about Gillespie's future at Kentucky, the Wildcats put together one of their grittiest performances of the year. Kentucky trailed most of the game, but Jodie Meeks converted a three-point play in the lane with 10.6 second left to lift UK. The Fighting Irish were ranked in the top-10 to start the season and faltered in league play losing seven straight games. The Wildcats will be the more motivated team as they will play hard for their coach
Jeff Benton
For Wednesday we’ll back the Hawks minus the points versus the Spurs.
This essentially comes down to one simple truth: Atlanta is covering pointspreads in a big way right now and San Antonio isn’t. With last night’s non-cover against Golden State – they won 107-106 as an eight-point home favorite – the Spurs have now failed to cover in five consecutive games. On the other hand, the Hawks are on a blistering 12-2-1 spread-covering streak, going 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 at home.
Obviously, those trends are built into this pointspread, but I don’t mind laying this somewhat inflated number because not only are these teams heading in opposite ATS directions, they’re heading in opposite directions period. Atlanta has won eight of its last nine, and all eight of the victories have come at home (the only loss was a respectable six-point setback at Cleveland). Meanwhile, prior to last night, the Spurs had dropped two in a row and four out of six.
San Antonio is notorious for stinking it up on back-to-back nights, especially when travel is involved and especially after having to go the distance as it did last night against the Warriors. And because this is a back-to-back spot, there’s a very good chance Tim Duncan won’t play. Throw in the fact that Atlanta has owned its home court this season (28-7 SU) and the home team has dominated this rivalry lately from a pointspread perspective (9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings), and my money’s on the playoff-bound and underrated Hawks.
7♦ ATLANTA HAWKS
Drew Gordon
Boston +3' at ORLANDO
The last time these two teams played, I gave you the Magic as my 100K paid play winner March 8th. In that contest, I argued that the Magic were not only healthier, but looking to make a statement against the defending champs, who had beaten twice earlier on this season. HOWEVER, things are a lot different this time around, and here's why:
First and foremost, the Celtics proved that when they have Kevin Garnett in the lineup, they match up particularly well with Orlando, as evidenced by their first two meetings this season - winning by a combined 29 points in those 2 match ups. We saw in their March 8th meeting what happens without the Big Ticket, namely, Orlando's frontline dominated Boston's... But you can rest-assured that will not be the case tonight with KG back in the lineup.
Second, now the motivation is flipped, in that, the Magic may have been the more motivated team the last time they met, but NOT this time. Celtics have an axe to grind after losing to the Magic 86-79 at home in their last one, and I fully expect they'll exact their revenge tonight. Note the underdog in this series is a solid 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings!
Bottom line, check the local Boston papers and you'll read just how important Pierce and company are taking this game. They believe their home loss in March was an embarassment, and will be looking to return the favor in kind tonight. In the end, we've seen how these teams match up when they're both healthy (as is the case tonight), and I just don't see any reason to believe the Celtics don't grab the cash in this one (with the outright win a very distinct possibility).
Take Boston plus the points over Orlando in this NBA match up.
2♦ BOSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
Stanford -3 at OREGON STATE
No strangers here, as Stanford and Oregon State are conference rivals that have already met three times this season, twice during the regluar season, and once in Los Angeles at the Pac 10 tounrament.
Thus far, the Beavers are 2-1 both straight up, and against the spread, but the Cardinal did win the most recent showdown in the conference tournament, going on a late game run that saw them cover the 7-point impost is a 62-54 win and cover.
We like the Tall Tree again tonight, as Johnny Dawkins' tounrnament experience sitting next to Coach K. all of those years is surely paying dividends right now, as Stanford has laid waste to both Boise State, and Wichita State to get to tonight's semifinal showdown.
The fact remains Oregon State is still 15-17 straight up this year, and they are just 5-13 against the spread the last 18 series meetings with Stanford.
We will lay the small road wood, and back Stanford to make it to Monday's final.
Play on the Cardinal.
5♦ STANFORD
Michael Cannon
Stanford -3 at OREGON STATE
Take Stanford tonight as the road chalk over Oregon State.
Stanford has cruised into the semifinals of this tournament with blowout wins over Boise State at home and Wichita State on the road. The Cardinal shouldn’t have any problem continuing that trend tonight against an Oregon State team that struggled in conference play all season long.
There is also revenge motive here for Stanford as they lost a pair of regular-season games to the Beavers. They gained a measure of revenge with a win in the Pac-10 tournament, but this would be even sweeter for the Cardinal.
Oregon State is on ATS slides of 7-20-1 at home, 0-4 in conference play, 2-12 on Wednesday and 4-11-1 after a spread-cover.
Stanford is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on Wednesday and 16-7-1 versus teams with a losing record.
Take Stanford minus the points as they grab the road win and cover.
2♦ STANFORD
Jeff Hochman
Saint Marys CA vs. San Diego State
Play: San Diego State -3
St. Marys has trouble with teams that are more athletic and faster than they are. I believe SD State will be a step quicker. St. Marys also doesn't get many steals and are kinda sloppy on offense. SD State by 6!
Matt Rivers
For Wednesday take Oregon State, how can I not!?!?!?
I have been riding Craig Robinson's much improved Beavers squad for awhile now. This team is just not the same garbage they have been over the past few years and right now are a competitive bunch that not only wants to continue their season but just may with another win today.
These teams have met three times already this season with OSU winning the first two and Stanford taking the last meeting in the Pac-10 tournament. The Beavs even dominated that first half and led that game by eight points at the break before getting whacked a bit in the first five minutes of the second half in the loss and one point non-cover. But all in all State has been the better team when facing the Cardinal and now at home should be extremely confident and fired up today.
OSU has already won a few tournament games at home and are lucky enough to get another here against Anthony Goods and what is probably the more talented team in Stanford but a team that is far from being all that. Today's visitors lost the Lopez Brothers to the NBA and in the first month of the season you would never know it as things were phenomenal and way overachieving early on. But it evened out and the Cardinal lost a whole lot and became what they should have been all along which is mediocre at the very best.
I do expect a tight game and like it has been of late OSU has learned how to win and should win. Robinson has proven to be a miracle worker in this his first season and I expect another semi one tonight!
Bobby Maxwell
Kentucky at NOTRE DAME -3
If it's a no-problem, FREE winner you're looking for, we've got it right here on the college hardwood as we play Notre Dame to get the job done at home over Kentucky.
People tend to forget this Notre Dame squad was playing some pretty good basketball coming down the stretch in the always tough Big East conference and this line is a little short in our estimation, especially with the Irish getting Kentucky in South Bend, Indiana.
Notre Dame edged New Mexico 70-68 on Thursday, but failed to cover as a five-point favorite. The Irish have won eight of their last 12 games and four of their last five. Remember this team went to UConn and played the Huskies right down to the wire fbefore losing in the final minute.
Kentucky edged Creighton 65-63 on Monday, covering as a 2 1/2-point favorite. It's the first time they have won consecutive games since late-January. The Wildcats are on ATS slides of 5-10 overall, 1-4 on the road, 1-5 after a spread-cover and 1-4 on Wednesdays.
Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in its last four after a non-cover and these guys seem to be focused on the task at hand. Look for the Irish to control the pace and dominate this one.
4♦ NOTRE DAME
Carlo Campanella
Minnesota T'Wolves at Philadelphia 76ers
Minnesota is a much more profitable team on the road this season, where they own a 21-14 ATS record. They find themselves getting double digits in Philadelphia on Wednesday night, and we're taking, as these T-Wolves match up perfectly against Philadelphia and have now WON and COVERED in 4 of the last 5 meetings, including a 102-96 home win in the last game earlier this season.
Play on: Minnesota
Tom Freese
Utah at Phoenix
Utah is 37-18 ATS off a double digit win and they are 7-2 ATS vs. an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. The Jazz are 7-3 ATS off an ATS Win and they are 9-4 ATS vs. NBA Pacific Division foes. Phoenix is 8-20 ATS their last 28 games vs. winning teams and they are 1-4 ATS when playing with one day of rest. The Suns are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games as home favorites of 4.5 or less points and they are 1-10 ATS their last 11 home games vs. the Jazz. PLAY ON UTAH +
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Phoenix Suns -3.5
Utah has lost 3 of its last 4 on the road and will have its work cut out for itself tonight against a Suns team which has won 5 in a row and is fighting hard for the playoffs. Utah just played last night and then had to travel out to Phoenix late and I can assure you that playing the Suns without fresh legs is no treat. In fact, Utah is just 11-24 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. The Suns are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Lay the number.
Ben Burns
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
I cashed a big ticket with the Warriors when they defeated the Mavericks a couple of weeks ago. However, that was at Oakland and the Warriors were well-rested. Tonight's spot is much more difficult.
For starters, the Warriors on the road instead of at home. That's noteworthy as they're an ugly 6-30 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, when playing away from home. That includes a money-burning 7-18 ATS (3-22 SU) mark, when they've played a road game with an over/under line of 210 or greater.
Additionally, the Warriors come off an extremely hard-fought loss at San Antonio last night. This is tougher than a "typical" back to back spot though. That's because they'll also be playing their sixth game in nine nights. That's an exhausting stretch, particularly a banged-up Warriors team that runs up and down the floor so much.
Conversely, the Mavericks haven't played since way back on Friday. Note that the Mavs are 17-12 ATS on the season, when facing a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. They're also 10-5 ATS their last 15 games against teams which allow greater than 99 points per game. Additionally, the Mavs are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS the last five times they hosted the Warriors. They won those five games by an average of 20 points, with each of the last three meetings here resulting in double-digit victories. They should definitely be the "fresher" team tonight and that should lead to another double-digit victory. Consider laying the points.
Jorge Gonzalez
Kentucky vs. Notre Dame
Play: Kentucky +2½
Kentucky (22-13) has shown that they are still motivated despite not making the tournament and the heat that Billy Gillespie is under in just his second year as the head coach. The Wildcats escaped the second round with a thrilling 65-63 victory over Creighton in front of a raucous crowd in Omaha, Neb., on Monday. Despite speculation and rumors about Gillespie's future at Kentucky, the Wildcats put together one of their grittiest performances of the year. Kentucky trailed most of the game, but Jodie Meeks converted a three-point play in the lane with 10.6 second left to lift UK. The Fighting Irish were ranked in the top-10 to start the season and faltered in league play losing seven straight games. The Wildcats will be the more motivated team as they will play hard for their coach
Jeff Benton
For Wednesday we’ll back the Hawks minus the points versus the Spurs.
This essentially comes down to one simple truth: Atlanta is covering pointspreads in a big way right now and San Antonio isn’t. With last night’s non-cover against Golden State – they won 107-106 as an eight-point home favorite – the Spurs have now failed to cover in five consecutive games. On the other hand, the Hawks are on a blistering 12-2-1 spread-covering streak, going 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 at home.
Obviously, those trends are built into this pointspread, but I don’t mind laying this somewhat inflated number because not only are these teams heading in opposite ATS directions, they’re heading in opposite directions period. Atlanta has won eight of its last nine, and all eight of the victories have come at home (the only loss was a respectable six-point setback at Cleveland). Meanwhile, prior to last night, the Spurs had dropped two in a row and four out of six.
San Antonio is notorious for stinking it up on back-to-back nights, especially when travel is involved and especially after having to go the distance as it did last night against the Warriors. And because this is a back-to-back spot, there’s a very good chance Tim Duncan won’t play. Throw in the fact that Atlanta has owned its home court this season (28-7 SU) and the home team has dominated this rivalry lately from a pointspread perspective (9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings), and my money’s on the playoff-bound and underrated Hawks.
7♦ ATLANTA HAWKS
Drew Gordon
Boston +3' at ORLANDO
The last time these two teams played, I gave you the Magic as my 100K paid play winner March 8th. In that contest, I argued that the Magic were not only healthier, but looking to make a statement against the defending champs, who had beaten twice earlier on this season. HOWEVER, things are a lot different this time around, and here's why:
First and foremost, the Celtics proved that when they have Kevin Garnett in the lineup, they match up particularly well with Orlando, as evidenced by their first two meetings this season - winning by a combined 29 points in those 2 match ups. We saw in their March 8th meeting what happens without the Big Ticket, namely, Orlando's frontline dominated Boston's... But you can rest-assured that will not be the case tonight with KG back in the lineup.
Second, now the motivation is flipped, in that, the Magic may have been the more motivated team the last time they met, but NOT this time. Celtics have an axe to grind after losing to the Magic 86-79 at home in their last one, and I fully expect they'll exact their revenge tonight. Note the underdog in this series is a solid 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings!
Bottom line, check the local Boston papers and you'll read just how important Pierce and company are taking this game. They believe their home loss in March was an embarassment, and will be looking to return the favor in kind tonight. In the end, we've seen how these teams match up when they're both healthy (as is the case tonight), and I just don't see any reason to believe the Celtics don't grab the cash in this one (with the outright win a very distinct possibility).
Take Boston plus the points over Orlando in this NBA match up.
2♦ BOSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
Stanford -3 at OREGON STATE
No strangers here, as Stanford and Oregon State are conference rivals that have already met three times this season, twice during the regluar season, and once in Los Angeles at the Pac 10 tounrament.
Thus far, the Beavers are 2-1 both straight up, and against the spread, but the Cardinal did win the most recent showdown in the conference tournament, going on a late game run that saw them cover the 7-point impost is a 62-54 win and cover.
We like the Tall Tree again tonight, as Johnny Dawkins' tounrnament experience sitting next to Coach K. all of those years is surely paying dividends right now, as Stanford has laid waste to both Boise State, and Wichita State to get to tonight's semifinal showdown.
The fact remains Oregon State is still 15-17 straight up this year, and they are just 5-13 against the spread the last 18 series meetings with Stanford.
We will lay the small road wood, and back Stanford to make it to Monday's final.
Play on the Cardinal.
5♦ STANFORD
Michael Cannon
Stanford -3 at OREGON STATE
Take Stanford tonight as the road chalk over Oregon State.
Stanford has cruised into the semifinals of this tournament with blowout wins over Boise State at home and Wichita State on the road. The Cardinal shouldn’t have any problem continuing that trend tonight against an Oregon State team that struggled in conference play all season long.
There is also revenge motive here for Stanford as they lost a pair of regular-season games to the Beavers. They gained a measure of revenge with a win in the Pac-10 tournament, but this would be even sweeter for the Cardinal.
Oregon State is on ATS slides of 7-20-1 at home, 0-4 in conference play, 2-12 on Wednesday and 4-11-1 after a spread-cover.
Stanford is on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on Wednesday and 16-7-1 versus teams with a losing record.
Take Stanford minus the points as they grab the road win and cover.
2♦ STANFORD
Larry Ness' 15* Situational Mismatch-NBA (60% run since Feb 6)
My 15* Situational Mismatch is on the Dal Mavs at 8:35 ET. Situational Mismatch 15* Dal Mavs.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 15* Tourney Bailout (8-4 or 66.7% since Mar 7)
My 15* Tourney Bailoit is on Stanford at 10:00 ET. Tourney Bailout 15* Stanford.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' NBA 25* (2nd TY / won 1st!)
My 25* is on the Pho Suns at 10:35 ET. 25* Pho Suns.
Good Luck...Larry
My 15* Situational Mismatch is on the Dal Mavs at 8:35 ET. Situational Mismatch 15* Dal Mavs.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 15* Tourney Bailout (8-4 or 66.7% since Mar 7)
My 15* Tourney Bailoit is on Stanford at 10:00 ET. Tourney Bailout 15* Stanford.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' NBA 25* (2nd TY / won 1st!)
My 25* is on the Pho Suns at 10:35 ET. 25* Pho Suns.
Good Luck...Larry
Last edited by a moderator:
Kanesline
NBA
Fox Sports Wisconsin
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors
Projected Spread: Toronto Raptors by 3
Projected Total:197
Projected Score:
Milwaukee Bucks 97
Toronto Raptors 100
System Pick: Take Toronto Raptors moneyline -171
Trend to Watch:
None
NBA
ESPN
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
Projected Spread: Orlando Magic by 2
Projected Total:192
Projected Score:
Boston Celitcs 95
Orlando Magic 97
System Pick: Take Orlando Magic moneyline -165
Trends to watch:
The Orlando Magic are 27-7 SU at home this season.
NCAAB
ESPN
Kentucky Wildcats at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Projected Spread: Notre Dame Fighting Irish by 6
Projected Total: 136
Projected Score:
Kentucky Wildcats 65
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 71
System Pick: Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2.50
Trend to Watch:
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
We like the Toronto Raptors moneyline -171, the Orlando Magic moneyline -165, and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2.5.
NBA
Fox Sports Wisconsin
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors
Projected Spread: Toronto Raptors by 3
Projected Total:197
Projected Score:
Milwaukee Bucks 97
Toronto Raptors 100
System Pick: Take Toronto Raptors moneyline -171
Trend to Watch:
None
NBA
ESPN
Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
Projected Spread: Orlando Magic by 2
Projected Total:192
Projected Score:
Boston Celitcs 95
Orlando Magic 97
System Pick: Take Orlando Magic moneyline -165
Trends to watch:
The Orlando Magic are 27-7 SU at home this season.
NCAAB
ESPN
Kentucky Wildcats at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Projected Spread: Notre Dame Fighting Irish by 6
Projected Total: 136
Projected Score:
Kentucky Wildcats 65
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 71
System Pick: Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2.50
Trend to Watch:
The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
We like the Toronto Raptors moneyline -171, the Orlando Magic moneyline -165, and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish -2.5.
4 UNIT PLAY (CIT GOY)
Bradley/ Pacific Over 129
(I know this is a Totals play, but we'll still use it as a GOY). The Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 non-conference games, while the Over is 5-1 in Braves last 6 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 non-conference games. Pacific games have averaged 129.4 ppg on the year, while their road games have put up 131.1 ppg, plus their last 5 overall have averaged 135 ppg. The Tigers aren't an offensive machine at 66.8 ppg (202nd), but they do shoot well as they have hit 46.2% of their shots (57th), including hitting 39.7% fro beyond the arc, which is 14th in the nation. The Braves come in 134th in scoring defense (66.3 ppg), 158th in FG% (43.9%) and they don't defense the arc all that well as they are 241st in 3pt defense (35.5%). The Braves have also allowed 75 ppg in their last 3 games on 46.3% shooting. Bradley hasn't been that great on offense overall this year (67.5 ppg on 43.7% shooting), but it has picked up in heir last 9 games, as they have averaged 72.8 ppg on a solid 46.3% shooting. The Braves have averaged 72 ppg on a healthy 47% shooting at home this year, including averaging 76.3 ppg on 49.7% shooting in their last 6 at home. Bradley's games have averaged 134.5 ppg overall, while their home games have averaged 138.5 ppg. We also note that 8 of their last 10 overall have gone Over the total, with an average of 142.8 ppg being scored,. while their last 6 at home have averaged 146 ppg. Pacific does play defense well, but I do see Bradley being able to crack it, while the solid shooting Tigers should be able to get their points vs a Bradley team that iis struggling to stop thier opponents of late. 130+ is more than in reach in this one and I will call for a game in the 140's.<!-- / message -->
M@LINSKY
4* #670 CLEVELAND/NEW JERSEY Under
Although our last two forays with this concept have not worked, with
one of them that bitter (for us) Portland/Cleveland overtime affair
last Thursday, we will not back off of one of the strongest
late-season concepts out there ? the way that Mike Brown gears his
Cavaliers up for the playoffs by slowing the pace, and cranking up
the defensive intensity. To recap, Brown went 14-3 to the Under as a
home favorite after the All Star break LY, an indication of how he
would manage games when his team had the ability to control the flow,
and the run is 7-1 in the same category this season (remember that we
only chart regulation scores), making for a lights-out 21-4 in
tonight?s role the past two campaigns. And note that the more control
he has the more he shuts things down ? when favored by -9 or more in
that span it has been an 8-1 push to the Under in which the nine
games finished a collective 125 points below the oddsmakers
projections, or a substantial 13.9 per game.
New Jersey can not do anything to change that flow without Devin
Harris in the lineup. These two just played to a 184 on the Nets home
floor on Sunday, but note how misleading that count was ? the game
was only sitting on 126 after three quarters, before Brown eased off
on the throttle and New Jersey scored 33 in the final period. Backing
off then actually made a little bit of sense, with no particular
reason to crush a team on the road with a rematch ahead. But tonight
that intensity can be there for the full 48 minutes, as a special
atmosphere is created for a Cleveland team out to set the franchise
record for wins, and with only a Friday home game vs. Minnesota on
deck the full focus can be unleashed.
4* #678 ORLANDO/BOSTON Under
This is playoff basketball. There is only one game separating these
teams in the battle for the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference, and
the crucial home court advantage in their almost inevitable
second-round hookup, and that means that in reality the playoffs
start right now. It also means that we should not be seeing a Total
in the low 90?s for the teams that are currently #1 (Celtics) and #2
(Magic) in the NBA on our best set of defensive ratings. With these
teams having played to a 165 and a 170 in their head-to-head
encounters over the past two months, we have excellent value for an
Under here.
Although Kevin Garnett has only played 14:39, 17:07 and 17:51 in this
first three games back, his return has brought Boston back to what we
are accustomed to seeing in terms of pace and defense ? the Celtics
held the Spurs to 77 points, the Grizzlies to 87 and the Clippers to
77 in that span. Now with Tuesday off to prepare for this one, and
tomorrow off as well, Garnett?s minutes can become an even bigger
part of the equation, creating more of a wall around the basket for
Dwight Howard to deal with.
Orlando is starting to bring the kind of late-season focus that we
like to see from a team that believes that a strong playoff run can
be made ? there have only been three home games in the last two
weeks, and they played 3-0 to the Under, by a collective 30.5 points.
The Magic absolutely understand the pace they are going to have to
play at in the ?second season?, with a 10-4 run to the Under in their
last 14 games against teams that would currently qualify for the
playoffs, and this becomes an intense defensive battle from the
start, with fast break opportunities few and far between.
4* #686 SAN DIEGO STATE/SAINT MARY?S Over
When Madison Square Garden and a trip to New York are firmly within
view, the intensity in the NIT picks up. And we know what intensity
means at this time of year in a close game ? a lot of scrambling down
the stretch, with neither side going down without a fight, since
there literally is no tomorrow for the loser. And that helps to set
up an easy Over in this short price range.
The oddsmakers have trouble with teams like Saint Mary?s, because of
the long absence of catalyst Patty Mills. Both the pace and the
offensive efficiency numbers slowed without him, and those statistics
clog up data bases. But it has been a 3-0 run to the Over with Mills
in the lineup since the West Coast tourney, and in two NIT games he
has exploded for 50 points. On Monday he only knocked down 1-10
triples in that win over Davidson, but still scored 23 points and
dished out 10 assists, a sign that his energy is where it needs to
be. Now we can also look for a few of those triples to fall, and
there are a pair of pendulums at hand ? not only the bounce-back from
Monday?s poor shooting, but also a reversal from his 6-19 from the
field, including 1-8 from 3-point range, in the earlier 67-64 win
over these Aztecs in Anaheim back in December.
Note that the first meeting got to 131 with more than an off-day from
Mills as a factor ? leading San Diego State scorer Lorenzo Wade only
had eight points in 19 minutes coming off of a seven-game suspension,
and the two teams only made 11-34 3-point attempts and 12-23 at the
free throw line. And it was in an antiseptic afternoon environment at
a neutral site that also created little added spark on the court.
That all changes tonight, and it brings us not only a high energy
game early, but one in which the energy never does subside, as
perhaps the two teams with the best cases for having been snubbed by
the Big Dance go all out to prove their point.
4* #670 CLEVELAND/NEW JERSEY Under
Although our last two forays with this concept have not worked, with
one of them that bitter (for us) Portland/Cleveland overtime affair
last Thursday, we will not back off of one of the strongest
late-season concepts out there ? the way that Mike Brown gears his
Cavaliers up for the playoffs by slowing the pace, and cranking up
the defensive intensity. To recap, Brown went 14-3 to the Under as a
home favorite after the All Star break LY, an indication of how he
would manage games when his team had the ability to control the flow,
and the run is 7-1 in the same category this season (remember that we
only chart regulation scores), making for a lights-out 21-4 in
tonight?s role the past two campaigns. And note that the more control
he has the more he shuts things down ? when favored by -9 or more in
that span it has been an 8-1 push to the Under in which the nine
games finished a collective 125 points below the oddsmakers
projections, or a substantial 13.9 per game.
New Jersey can not do anything to change that flow without Devin
Harris in the lineup. These two just played to a 184 on the Nets home
floor on Sunday, but note how misleading that count was ? the game
was only sitting on 126 after three quarters, before Brown eased off
on the throttle and New Jersey scored 33 in the final period. Backing
off then actually made a little bit of sense, with no particular
reason to crush a team on the road with a rematch ahead. But tonight
that intensity can be there for the full 48 minutes, as a special
atmosphere is created for a Cleveland team out to set the franchise
record for wins, and with only a Friday home game vs. Minnesota on
deck the full focus can be unleashed.
4* #678 ORLANDO/BOSTON Under
This is playoff basketball. There is only one game separating these
teams in the battle for the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference, and
the crucial home court advantage in their almost inevitable
second-round hookup, and that means that in reality the playoffs
start right now. It also means that we should not be seeing a Total
in the low 90?s for the teams that are currently #1 (Celtics) and #2
(Magic) in the NBA on our best set of defensive ratings. With these
teams having played to a 165 and a 170 in their head-to-head
encounters over the past two months, we have excellent value for an
Under here.
Although Kevin Garnett has only played 14:39, 17:07 and 17:51 in this
first three games back, his return has brought Boston back to what we
are accustomed to seeing in terms of pace and defense ? the Celtics
held the Spurs to 77 points, the Grizzlies to 87 and the Clippers to
77 in that span. Now with Tuesday off to prepare for this one, and
tomorrow off as well, Garnett?s minutes can become an even bigger
part of the equation, creating more of a wall around the basket for
Dwight Howard to deal with.
Orlando is starting to bring the kind of late-season focus that we
like to see from a team that believes that a strong playoff run can
be made ? there have only been three home games in the last two
weeks, and they played 3-0 to the Under, by a collective 30.5 points.
The Magic absolutely understand the pace they are going to have to
play at in the ?second season?, with a 10-4 run to the Under in their
last 14 games against teams that would currently qualify for the
playoffs, and this becomes an intense defensive battle from the
start, with fast break opportunities few and far between.
4* #686 SAN DIEGO STATE/SAINT MARY?S Over
When Madison Square Garden and a trip to New York are firmly within
view, the intensity in the NIT picks up. And we know what intensity
means at this time of year in a close game ? a lot of scrambling down
the stretch, with neither side going down without a fight, since
there literally is no tomorrow for the loser. And that helps to set
up an easy Over in this short price range.
The oddsmakers have trouble with teams like Saint Mary?s, because of
the long absence of catalyst Patty Mills. Both the pace and the
offensive efficiency numbers slowed without him, and those statistics
clog up data bases. But it has been a 3-0 run to the Over with Mills
in the lineup since the West Coast tourney, and in two NIT games he
has exploded for 50 points. On Monday he only knocked down 1-10
triples in that win over Davidson, but still scored 23 points and
dished out 10 assists, a sign that his energy is where it needs to
be. Now we can also look for a few of those triples to fall, and
there are a pair of pendulums at hand ? not only the bounce-back from
Monday?s poor shooting, but also a reversal from his 6-19 from the
field, including 1-8 from 3-point range, in the earlier 67-64 win
over these Aztecs in Anaheim back in December.
Note that the first meeting got to 131 with more than an off-day from
Mills as a factor ? leading San Diego State scorer Lorenzo Wade only
had eight points in 19 minutes coming off of a seven-game suspension,
and the two teams only made 11-34 3-point attempts and 12-23 at the
free throw line. And it was in an antiseptic afternoon environment at
a neutral site that also created little added spark on the court.
That all changes tonight, and it brings us not only a high energy
game early, but one in which the energy never does subside, as
perhaps the two teams with the best cases for having been snubbed by
the Big Dance go all out to prove their point.
NSA's Selection
CBB Kentucky @ Notre Dame 7:00 PM EST 20* Kentucky +3
CBB St Mary's @ San Diego St PM EST 10* St Mary's +3.5
CBB UTEP @ Richmond 8:00 PM EST 10* Richmond Pk
CBB Stanford @ Oregon St 10:00 PM EST 10* Oregon St +3.5
NBA Boston @ Orlando 8:05 PM EST 10* Boston +3.5
NBA LA Clippers @ New York 7:30 PM EST 10* LA Clippers +7
CBB Kentucky @ Notre Dame 7:00 PM EST 20* Kentucky +3
CBB St Mary's @ San Diego St PM EST 10* St Mary's +3.5
CBB UTEP @ Richmond 8:00 PM EST 10* Richmond Pk
CBB Stanford @ Oregon St 10:00 PM EST 10* Oregon St +3.5
NBA Boston @ Orlando 8:05 PM EST 10* Boston +3.5
NBA LA Clippers @ New York 7:30 PM EST 10* LA Clippers +7
Oscarxena Sports
691 UTEP/Richmond Over 143 1/2 -1.07 (3 Unit Play)-UTEP likes to play fast and that is evidenced by their #20 ranking in Tempo/Pace as they average 71.3 possessions per game on the season. Richmond is a more methodical team as they rank at only #247 in that category but they have shown they are not afraid to play uptempo with teams as they have went Over the total in four of their last five games. Richmond is 4-0 ATS to the Over so far this year when the total is 140 to 149 1/2 and over the past three years they are 7-1 ATS to the Over as well. UTEP has also been on an Over run lately going Over in 5 of their last 6 and when they are installed as a road underdog of 3 or less points they are a perfect 8-0 ATS to the Over in the past three years. I look for points in this one and this makes it over the total.
695 Pacific +5 +1.01 (1.5 Unit Play)
695 Pacific/Bradley Under 129 -1.06 (1.5 Unit Play)
691 UTEP/Richmond Over 143 1/2 -1.07 (3 Unit Play)-UTEP likes to play fast and that is evidenced by their #20 ranking in Tempo/Pace as they average 71.3 possessions per game on the season. Richmond is a more methodical team as they rank at only #247 in that category but they have shown they are not afraid to play uptempo with teams as they have went Over the total in four of their last five games. Richmond is 4-0 ATS to the Over so far this year when the total is 140 to 149 1/2 and over the past three years they are 7-1 ATS to the Over as well. UTEP has also been on an Over run lately going Over in 5 of their last 6 and when they are installed as a road underdog of 3 or less points they are a perfect 8-0 ATS to the Over in the past three years. I look for points in this one and this makes it over the total.
695 Pacific +5 +1.01 (1.5 Unit Play)
695 Pacific/Bradley Under 129 -1.06 (1.5 Unit Play)
IC
Play: 4 Unit Play. #686. San Diego State -3 over St. Mary's (Wednesday @ 9pm est). (POD)
After having a winning January and February in hoops, March has been a letdown as it seems I've hit a rough patch. Heck, we had 8 straight winning weeks in the NBA and 5 in a row in college. I expected to have a down swing, but the last few days have been tough. I'm working as hard as I can to correct this through my research and spreadsheets. I always do and will do so again soon. thanks. For today, let's take the Aztecs at home against the Gaels. If you are looking for another play, you might want to take a look at UTEP on the road today as they have a solid chance of pulling that game on the road as they defeated a better team in Nevada on the road who is a top 100 team while Richmond is a top 125 team. As per this game, San Diego State is a top 30 team. This is the same team that has defeated several tourney type teams including CS Northridge at home by 14, Utah at home by 9 and BYU on neutral footing and was 2 points away from going to the NCAA Tournament as they lost to Utah in the conference championships. This is a very good team. This team has balanced scoring and comes off two solid wins in the NIT including beating Weber State by 16 at home and Kansas State by 18 at home as well. Weber State was a top 125 team and Kansas State was a top 50 team. St. Mary's is also a top 50 team and they highlight Patty Mills who is an incredible talent and it's a shame that more of the country didn't see him get to play in the tourney. These two teams actually met earlier this year and St. Mary's won by 3 points on neutral footing. So, you have an added element of revenge for San Diego State as well. SD State is a very good defensive team and I expect them to run a similar defense to what Gonzaga ran against this team that helped defeat St. Mary's by 25. St. Mary's has had its lapses on true road games this year losing by 18 to Santa Clara and Portland - as well as losing by 13 to UTEP on neutral footing. For these reasons of revenge, SD State playing well at home and having beaten other top 50 teams by margins greater than 3, as well as being 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games while St. Mary's is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, I like the Aztecs here laying the short number.
Play: 4 Unit Play. #668. Take the Atlanta Hawks -6.5 over the San Antonio Spurs (Wednesday @ 7pm est)
After having a winning January and February in hoops, March has been a letdown as it seems I've hit a rough patch. Heck, we had 8 straight winning weeks in the NBA and 5 in a row in college. I expected to have a down swing, but the last few days have been tough. I'm working as hard as I can to correct this through my research and spreadsheets. I always do and will do so again soon. I have the best clients anyone can ask for any I truly appreciate your patience. As per today's play, let's roll with the Hawks at home as they are 8-0-1 ATS of late. In fact, they are 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS during this stretch. They have beat the likes of Dallas by 8, Indiana by 14, Utah by 7, New Orleans by 10, Portland by 18 and Sacramento by 22. Can the Spurs squeak inside this number? Sure. But, note that the Hawks lost to this team by 6 on the road earlier this year and they have revenge in this contest. It might seem obvious to take the once-defending champs as a +6.5 dog here on the road. But the Spurs are not playing that well right now and the Hawks since Marvin went down have been playing with a chip on their shoulder. Duncan is expected to miss tonight's game as Manu is expected to be back. The Hawks have outscored their opponents in the fourth quarter in the last 9 of 10 contests and they have a great shot at winning this game and covering the spread as well given their previous results at home and with the revenge angle. The Hawks are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games while the Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall - the home team is also 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Play: 4 Unit Play. #686. San Diego State -3 over St. Mary's (Wednesday @ 9pm est). (POD)
After having a winning January and February in hoops, March has been a letdown as it seems I've hit a rough patch. Heck, we had 8 straight winning weeks in the NBA and 5 in a row in college. I expected to have a down swing, but the last few days have been tough. I'm working as hard as I can to correct this through my research and spreadsheets. I always do and will do so again soon. thanks. For today, let's take the Aztecs at home against the Gaels. If you are looking for another play, you might want to take a look at UTEP on the road today as they have a solid chance of pulling that game on the road as they defeated a better team in Nevada on the road who is a top 100 team while Richmond is a top 125 team. As per this game, San Diego State is a top 30 team. This is the same team that has defeated several tourney type teams including CS Northridge at home by 14, Utah at home by 9 and BYU on neutral footing and was 2 points away from going to the NCAA Tournament as they lost to Utah in the conference championships. This is a very good team. This team has balanced scoring and comes off two solid wins in the NIT including beating Weber State by 16 at home and Kansas State by 18 at home as well. Weber State was a top 125 team and Kansas State was a top 50 team. St. Mary's is also a top 50 team and they highlight Patty Mills who is an incredible talent and it's a shame that more of the country didn't see him get to play in the tourney. These two teams actually met earlier this year and St. Mary's won by 3 points on neutral footing. So, you have an added element of revenge for San Diego State as well. SD State is a very good defensive team and I expect them to run a similar defense to what Gonzaga ran against this team that helped defeat St. Mary's by 25. St. Mary's has had its lapses on true road games this year losing by 18 to Santa Clara and Portland - as well as losing by 13 to UTEP on neutral footing. For these reasons of revenge, SD State playing well at home and having beaten other top 50 teams by margins greater than 3, as well as being 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games while St. Mary's is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games, I like the Aztecs here laying the short number.
Play: 4 Unit Play. #668. Take the Atlanta Hawks -6.5 over the San Antonio Spurs (Wednesday @ 7pm est)
After having a winning January and February in hoops, March has been a letdown as it seems I've hit a rough patch. Heck, we had 8 straight winning weeks in the NBA and 5 in a row in college. I expected to have a down swing, but the last few days have been tough. I'm working as hard as I can to correct this through my research and spreadsheets. I always do and will do so again soon. I have the best clients anyone can ask for any I truly appreciate your patience. As per today's play, let's roll with the Hawks at home as they are 8-0-1 ATS of late. In fact, they are 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS during this stretch. They have beat the likes of Dallas by 8, Indiana by 14, Utah by 7, New Orleans by 10, Portland by 18 and Sacramento by 22. Can the Spurs squeak inside this number? Sure. But, note that the Hawks lost to this team by 6 on the road earlier this year and they have revenge in this contest. It might seem obvious to take the once-defending champs as a +6.5 dog here on the road. But the Spurs are not playing that well right now and the Hawks since Marvin went down have been playing with a chip on their shoulder. Duncan is expected to miss tonight's game as Manu is expected to be back. The Hawks have outscored their opponents in the fourth quarter in the last 9 of 10 contests and they have a great shot at winning this game and covering the spread as well given their previous results at home and with the revenge angle. The Hawks are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games while the Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall - the home team is also 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
