THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Penn State (18-8, 11-7-1 ATS) at (22) Illinois (21-5, 13-8-1 ATS)
Illinois shoots for its fourth consecutive victory when it hosts Penn State, which is looking to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume with a third victory this season over a Top 25 team.
The Illini routed Indiana 65-52 as a 10½-point road favorite on Sunday, continuing their outstanding play on the defensive end of the court. Illinois has given up 63 points or less in 11 consecutive games, going 8-3 during this stretch (6-4-1 ATS) and allowing an average of 50.6 ppg in the eight victories. On the down side, Bruce Weber’s squad hasn’t scored more than 67 points in 10 straight games, averaging just 59.3 ppg during this stretch.
The Nittany Lions snapped a three-game SU and ATS slide with Saturday’s 68-63 victory over Minnesota as a 2½-point home favorite. Penn State shot just 43 percent from the field overall, but 47.8 percent (11-for-23) from three-point range as the offense finally delivered after scoring just 51, 44 and 47 points during the three-game losing streak.
Illinois is in second place in the Big Ten at 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, including 6-0 at home (4-1-1 ATS). Penn State is 7-6 in league play (7-5-1 ATS), including 2-4 as a visitor (3-3 ATS). The Nittany Lions have faced five Top 25 teams – all Big Ten rivals – going 2-4 SU and 3-2-1 ATS.
These teams met three times last year. Penn State took the first two meetings as an underdog, prevailing 68-64 as an eight-point road pup and 52-51 as a five-point home ‘dog. But Illinois got revenge in the Big Ten tournament with a 64-63 victory, though the Lions covered again as an eight-point underdog. Penn State is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 3-0 ATS at Illinois, all as a pup. Finally, the visitor is on a 4-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Penn State is in ATS slides of 7-15 after a spread-cover and 2-5-1 on Wednesday. The Illini are on pointspread surges of 6-2-1 at home, 28-12-2 on Wednesday and 6-2-1 as a single-digit favorite, but they’ve failed to cash in four of their last five versus winning teams.
The under is on streaks of 5-2-1 for the Nittany Lions overall (all in Big Ten play), 5-2-1 for the Nittany Lions after a SU win, 20-8 for Illinois overall (9-1 in the last 10), 6-1 for Illinois at home, 7-0 for Illinois after a SU win, 37-15-1 for Illinois after an ATS win and 7-2 for Illinois on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ILLINOIS and UNDER
Notre Dame (14-10, 5-13 ATS) at West Virginia (17-8, 10-12 ATS)
Two Big East rivals sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble hook up in Morgantown, where West Virginia hosts resurgent Notre Dame.
The Mountaineers are coming off Friday’s 93-72 rout of red-hot Villanova, cashing easily as a 4½-point home favorite. West Virginia shot 50 percent from the field against the Wildcats and set a season-high mark for points scored, just one game after managing only 59 points in a loss at Pitt. Despite beating Notre Dame, Bob Huggins’ club is still just 3-4 SU in its last seven games and 5-7 ATS in its last 12 (3-5 ATS as a favorite).
Notre Dame has rebounded from an ugly seven-game losing skid with season-saving home wins over then-No. 5 Louisville (90-57) and South Florida (67-57). However, after cashing easily as a four-point home underdog against the Cardinals, the Irish came up short as a 13½-point chalk against South Florida on Sunday, dropping to 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
West Virginia has won and covered three straight home games, all in Big East play, and is 4-2 when hosting league foes (3-3 ATS). Overall, the Mountaineers are 6-6 SU and ATS in conference. The Irish are 5-7 in the Big East (3-9 ATS), but 1-5 SU and ATS on the highway. In fact, since opening conference play with a 92-82 win at DePaul, Notre Dame has lost six consecutive road games (0-6 ATS).
The Fighting Irish have owned this rivalry, winning nine of the last 10 meetings, but the teams have split the cash during this stretch. Last year, Notre Dame rolled 69-56 at home as a 2½-point favorite, ending a 4-0 ATS run by the underdog in this series and a 3-0 ATS run by the road team.
In addition to its ATS ruts of 1-9 overall and 0-6 on the road, Notre Dame is in pointspread funks of 1-8 against Big East squads, 1-4 on Wednesday, 2-6 as an underdog and 1-8 versus winning teams. The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS both in their last five Wednesday contests and their last five after a spread-cover.
These teams have stayed under the total in seven consecutive meetings, including four straight “unders” in Morgantown. Also, the under is 7-0 in West Virginia’s last seven against winning teams and 7-0 in Notre Dame’s last seven versus teams above .500. However, the Irish are otherwise on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-0 on the road, 6-1 on Wednesday, 21-8 in Big East play and 16-7 after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Miami, Fla. (15-9, 10-8-1 ATS) at Florida State (12-6-1 ATS)
A string of close losses has left Miami, Fla., near the basement in the ACC standings and on the verge of missing out on the Big Dance, putting the Hurricanes in desperation mode as they visit rival Florida State.
Miami battled back from a big second-half hole against third-ranked North Carolina on Sunday, but still came up short 69-65 at home. The Hurricanes are 1-5 in their last six games, with three of the losses coming in overtime and all five defeats being by a total of 21 points. On the bright side, Miami covered as an eight-point underdog against the Tar Heels, improving to 3-0 ATS in its last three games after going 0-3-1 ATS in the previous four.
Florida State’s stay at the bottom of the Top 25 rankings was brief, as it fell 86-63 at Wake Forest on Saturday to snap a three-game winning streak. Despite being 3-1 in their last four games, the Seminoles have only averaged 64.5 ppg in this stretch. Although the ‘Noles never threatened to cover as an 8½-point underdog at Wake, they’re still 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 lined contests.
The Hurricanes are now 4-7 in conference (5-5-1 ATS), including 1-4 on the highway (2-3 ATS). Florida State is 6-4 in the ACC (6-3-1 ATS), including 3-2 SU and ATS at home, with the winner failing to cover in four of those five home games.
Miami dumped the Seminoles 75-69 back on Jan. 21, but pushed as a six-point home favorite, the second straight push in this rivalry. The ‘Canes’ win ended Florida State’s five-game (4-0-1 ATS) stranglehold on this rivalry. The road team is 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 series meetings, the SU winner is also 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 and the ‘dog is on a 5-2-2 ATS roll.
Miami is on pointspread runs of 5-2 on the road, 6-2 as an underdog, 7-2-1 after a SU defeat and 13-6-2 after a spread-cover. The Seminoles are on ATS streaks of 10-3-2 in ACC play, 4-1 after a defeat, 4-1 as a favorite of less than eight points, 5-0-1 after a non-cover and 5-2-1 versus teams with a winning record.
The over is on runs of 5-2 for the ‘Canes overall, 4-1 for the ‘Canes on the road, 4-0 for Florida State on Wednesday, 20-6-1 for Florida State after a SU loss and 4-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and OVER
NBA
Denver (36-17, 30-22-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (27-25, 25-25-2 ATS)
After a full week off, the Nuggets return to the court when they resume an eight-game road trip with a stop at the Wachovia Center for a matchup with the 76ers.
Denver entered the All-Star break on a 9-2 SU run and an 8-4 ATS surge, including consecutive wins and covers in Florida last week – a 99-82 rout of Miami as a 1½-point favorite and an 82-73 victory at Orlando as a seven-point pup. The normally defensively inept Nuggets have held eight of their last 11 opponents under triple digits, and George Karl’s club is 7-3 in its last 10 road games (6-4 ATS).
Philadelphia had its four-game winning streak halted in Tuesday’s 100-89 at Indiana as a two-point underdog. The 76ers’ four-game run (2-1-1 ATS) had all come at home, and they’re still 14-5 in their last 19 overall and 12-6-2 ATS in their last 20. During this run, Philadelphia is 10-3 at home, with the three losses – to the Celtics, Nets and Mavericks – coming by a total of five points. Like the Nuggets, the 76ers are playing great defense, holding seven of nine opponents to 94 points or less.
The Nuggets edged Philadelphia 105-101 on Dec. 26, but failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite. The host has won the last three meetings SU, but the visitor is 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes, with Denver going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Philly. Finally, the winner has scored at least 105 points in each of the last five meetings.
Denver is on pointspread runs of 12-2 against the Atlantic Division and 4-1 versus the Eastern Conference, but it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after taking three or more days off. Philadelphia is on ATS streaks of 4-0 against winning teams and 5-1 on Wednesday, in addition to its 12-6-2 overall ATS run.
The under is on runs of 5-2 for the Nuggets on the road, 5-2 for the Nuggets against the Eastern Conference, 5-0 for the 76ers overall, 35-16-1 for the 76ers at home, 5-0 for the 76ers against the Western Conference and 5-2 for the 76ers when playing on back-to-back nights. However, the over is 4-1 in Denver’s last five against the Atlantic Division, 4-1 in Philly’s last five versus the Northwest Division and 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, including 3-1 at the Wachovia Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Orlando (39-13, 33-18-1 ATS) at New Orleans (31-20, 21-28-2 ATS)
Two teams coming off narrow victories last night get together in the Big Easy, as the Hornets host the Southeast Division-leading Magic at New Orleans Arena.
New Orleans held off Oklahoma City 100-98 on Tuesday, failing to cover as a 3½-point road chalk. Although the Hornets snapped a two-game skid with the victory, they’re still mired in slumps of 3-6 overall and 2-7 ATS, and they’re 2-4 SU and ATS at home during this rut.
Orlando needed overtime to dispatch Charlotte last night, winning 107-102 but coming up short as an 8½-point home chalk. The Magic have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last seven games overall and their last four on the road. However, Orlando still owns one of the best road records in the NBA at 18-7 SU and 17-7-1 ATS, including 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven.
Although both teams failed to cover the spread in victories last night, the SU winner is still 11-1 ATS in the Hornets’ last 12 games overall, 9-0 ATS in its last nine at home, 16-1 ATS in Orlando’s last 17 overall and 14-0 ATS in Orlando’s last 14 on the road. In fact, the winner is 22-2-1 ATS when the Magic hit the highway this season.
The Magic hammered the Hornets 88-68 as a five-point home favorite back on Christmas Day, and these clubs have alternated SU wins in the last seven clashes going back to 2005. The ‘dog is on an 8-1-1 ATS run in this rivalry, and the visitor is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head battles, with the Magic cashing in four of their last five trips to New Orleans.
Orlando carries positive ATS trends of 23-9 overall, 50-24-3 on the road, 35-17-1 against the Western Conference, 6-1 on Wednesday and 5-1 when playing back-to-back contests. However, the Magic have failed to cover in four of their last five against winning teams. New Orleans is 36-17 ATS in its last 53 games on Wednesday, but otherwise the Hornets are in ATS funks of 1-4-1 against the Southeast Division and 1-4 when playing on consecutive nights.
These teams have stayed under the total in nine of the last 10 meetings, including the last five in a row overall and the last five in a row in New Orleans. Furthermore, Orlando is on “under” streaks of 4-2 overall, 4-1 against the Western Conference and 5-0 against winning teams. Also, the Hornets are riding “under” streaks of 12-5-1 against the Eastern Conference, 7-1 against the Southeast Division and 7-0 versus winning teams.
Conversely, the over is 7-3 in the Magic’s last 10 road games, 4-1 in the Hornets’ last five at home and 7-3 in the Hornets’ last 10 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
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Penn State (18-8, 11-7-1 ATS) at (22) Illinois (21-5, 13-8-1 ATS)
Illinois shoots for its fourth consecutive victory when it hosts Penn State, which is looking to bolster its NCAA Tournament resume with a third victory this season over a Top 25 team.
The Illini routed Indiana 65-52 as a 10½-point road favorite on Sunday, continuing their outstanding play on the defensive end of the court. Illinois has given up 63 points or less in 11 consecutive games, going 8-3 during this stretch (6-4-1 ATS) and allowing an average of 50.6 ppg in the eight victories. On the down side, Bruce Weber’s squad hasn’t scored more than 67 points in 10 straight games, averaging just 59.3 ppg during this stretch.
The Nittany Lions snapped a three-game SU and ATS slide with Saturday’s 68-63 victory over Minnesota as a 2½-point home favorite. Penn State shot just 43 percent from the field overall, but 47.8 percent (11-for-23) from three-point range as the offense finally delivered after scoring just 51, 44 and 47 points during the three-game losing streak.
Illinois is in second place in the Big Ten at 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS, including 6-0 at home (4-1-1 ATS). Penn State is 7-6 in league play (7-5-1 ATS), including 2-4 as a visitor (3-3 ATS). The Nittany Lions have faced five Top 25 teams – all Big Ten rivals – going 2-4 SU and 3-2-1 ATS.
These teams met three times last year. Penn State took the first two meetings as an underdog, prevailing 68-64 as an eight-point road pup and 52-51 as a five-point home ‘dog. But Illinois got revenge in the Big Ten tournament with a 64-63 victory, though the Lions covered again as an eight-point underdog. Penn State is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 3-0 ATS at Illinois, all as a pup. Finally, the visitor is on a 4-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Penn State is in ATS slides of 7-15 after a spread-cover and 2-5-1 on Wednesday. The Illini are on pointspread surges of 6-2-1 at home, 28-12-2 on Wednesday and 6-2-1 as a single-digit favorite, but they’ve failed to cash in four of their last five versus winning teams.
The under is on streaks of 5-2-1 for the Nittany Lions overall (all in Big Ten play), 5-2-1 for the Nittany Lions after a SU win, 20-8 for Illinois overall (9-1 in the last 10), 6-1 for Illinois at home, 7-0 for Illinois after a SU win, 37-15-1 for Illinois after an ATS win and 7-2 for Illinois on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ILLINOIS and UNDER
Notre Dame (14-10, 5-13 ATS) at West Virginia (17-8, 10-12 ATS)
Two Big East rivals sitting on the NCAA Tournament bubble hook up in Morgantown, where West Virginia hosts resurgent Notre Dame.
The Mountaineers are coming off Friday’s 93-72 rout of red-hot Villanova, cashing easily as a 4½-point home favorite. West Virginia shot 50 percent from the field against the Wildcats and set a season-high mark for points scored, just one game after managing only 59 points in a loss at Pitt. Despite beating Notre Dame, Bob Huggins’ club is still just 3-4 SU in its last seven games and 5-7 ATS in its last 12 (3-5 ATS as a favorite).
Notre Dame has rebounded from an ugly seven-game losing skid with season-saving home wins over then-No. 5 Louisville (90-57) and South Florida (67-57). However, after cashing easily as a four-point home underdog against the Cardinals, the Irish came up short as a 13½-point chalk against South Florida on Sunday, dropping to 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
West Virginia has won and covered three straight home games, all in Big East play, and is 4-2 when hosting league foes (3-3 ATS). Overall, the Mountaineers are 6-6 SU and ATS in conference. The Irish are 5-7 in the Big East (3-9 ATS), but 1-5 SU and ATS on the highway. In fact, since opening conference play with a 92-82 win at DePaul, Notre Dame has lost six consecutive road games (0-6 ATS).
The Fighting Irish have owned this rivalry, winning nine of the last 10 meetings, but the teams have split the cash during this stretch. Last year, Notre Dame rolled 69-56 at home as a 2½-point favorite, ending a 4-0 ATS run by the underdog in this series and a 3-0 ATS run by the road team.
In addition to its ATS ruts of 1-9 overall and 0-6 on the road, Notre Dame is in pointspread funks of 1-8 against Big East squads, 1-4 on Wednesday, 2-6 as an underdog and 1-8 versus winning teams. The Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS both in their last five Wednesday contests and their last five after a spread-cover.
These teams have stayed under the total in seven consecutive meetings, including four straight “unders” in Morgantown. Also, the under is 7-0 in West Virginia’s last seven against winning teams and 7-0 in Notre Dame’s last seven versus teams above .500. However, the Irish are otherwise on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-0 on the road, 6-1 on Wednesday, 21-8 in Big East play and 16-7 after a SU victory.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Miami, Fla. (15-9, 10-8-1 ATS) at Florida State (12-6-1 ATS)
A string of close losses has left Miami, Fla., near the basement in the ACC standings and on the verge of missing out on the Big Dance, putting the Hurricanes in desperation mode as they visit rival Florida State.
Miami battled back from a big second-half hole against third-ranked North Carolina on Sunday, but still came up short 69-65 at home. The Hurricanes are 1-5 in their last six games, with three of the losses coming in overtime and all five defeats being by a total of 21 points. On the bright side, Miami covered as an eight-point underdog against the Tar Heels, improving to 3-0 ATS in its last three games after going 0-3-1 ATS in the previous four.
Florida State’s stay at the bottom of the Top 25 rankings was brief, as it fell 86-63 at Wake Forest on Saturday to snap a three-game winning streak. Despite being 3-1 in their last four games, the Seminoles have only averaged 64.5 ppg in this stretch. Although the ‘Noles never threatened to cover as an 8½-point underdog at Wake, they’re still 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 lined contests.
The Hurricanes are now 4-7 in conference (5-5-1 ATS), including 1-4 on the highway (2-3 ATS). Florida State is 6-4 in the ACC (6-3-1 ATS), including 3-2 SU and ATS at home, with the winner failing to cover in four of those five home games.
Miami dumped the Seminoles 75-69 back on Jan. 21, but pushed as a six-point home favorite, the second straight push in this rivalry. The ‘Canes’ win ended Florida State’s five-game (4-0-1 ATS) stranglehold on this rivalry. The road team is 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 series meetings, the SU winner is also 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 and the ‘dog is on a 5-2-2 ATS roll.
Miami is on pointspread runs of 5-2 on the road, 6-2 as an underdog, 7-2-1 after a SU defeat and 13-6-2 after a spread-cover. The Seminoles are on ATS streaks of 10-3-2 in ACC play, 4-1 after a defeat, 4-1 as a favorite of less than eight points, 5-0-1 after a non-cover and 5-2-1 versus teams with a winning record.
The over is on runs of 5-2 for the ‘Canes overall, 4-1 for the ‘Canes on the road, 4-0 for Florida State on Wednesday, 20-6-1 for Florida State after a SU loss and 4-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and OVER
NBA
Denver (36-17, 30-22-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (27-25, 25-25-2 ATS)
After a full week off, the Nuggets return to the court when they resume an eight-game road trip with a stop at the Wachovia Center for a matchup with the 76ers.
Denver entered the All-Star break on a 9-2 SU run and an 8-4 ATS surge, including consecutive wins and covers in Florida last week – a 99-82 rout of Miami as a 1½-point favorite and an 82-73 victory at Orlando as a seven-point pup. The normally defensively inept Nuggets have held eight of their last 11 opponents under triple digits, and George Karl’s club is 7-3 in its last 10 road games (6-4 ATS).
Philadelphia had its four-game winning streak halted in Tuesday’s 100-89 at Indiana as a two-point underdog. The 76ers’ four-game run (2-1-1 ATS) had all come at home, and they’re still 14-5 in their last 19 overall and 12-6-2 ATS in their last 20. During this run, Philadelphia is 10-3 at home, with the three losses – to the Celtics, Nets and Mavericks – coming by a total of five points. Like the Nuggets, the 76ers are playing great defense, holding seven of nine opponents to 94 points or less.
The Nuggets edged Philadelphia 105-101 on Dec. 26, but failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite. The host has won the last three meetings SU, but the visitor is 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes, with Denver going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Philly. Finally, the winner has scored at least 105 points in each of the last five meetings.
Denver is on pointspread runs of 12-2 against the Atlantic Division and 4-1 versus the Eastern Conference, but it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after taking three or more days off. Philadelphia is on ATS streaks of 4-0 against winning teams and 5-1 on Wednesday, in addition to its 12-6-2 overall ATS run.
The under is on runs of 5-2 for the Nuggets on the road, 5-2 for the Nuggets against the Eastern Conference, 5-0 for the 76ers overall, 35-16-1 for the 76ers at home, 5-0 for the 76ers against the Western Conference and 5-2 for the 76ers when playing on back-to-back nights. However, the over is 4-1 in Denver’s last five against the Atlantic Division, 4-1 in Philly’s last five versus the Northwest Division and 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings in this rivalry, including 3-1 at the Wachovia Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Orlando (39-13, 33-18-1 ATS) at New Orleans (31-20, 21-28-2 ATS)
Two teams coming off narrow victories last night get together in the Big Easy, as the Hornets host the Southeast Division-leading Magic at New Orleans Arena.
New Orleans held off Oklahoma City 100-98 on Tuesday, failing to cover as a 3½-point road chalk. Although the Hornets snapped a two-game skid with the victory, they’re still mired in slumps of 3-6 overall and 2-7 ATS, and they’re 2-4 SU and ATS at home during this rut.
Orlando needed overtime to dispatch Charlotte last night, winning 107-102 but coming up short as an 8½-point home chalk. The Magic have alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in their last seven games overall and their last four on the road. However, Orlando still owns one of the best road records in the NBA at 18-7 SU and 17-7-1 ATS, including 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven.
Although both teams failed to cover the spread in victories last night, the SU winner is still 11-1 ATS in the Hornets’ last 12 games overall, 9-0 ATS in its last nine at home, 16-1 ATS in Orlando’s last 17 overall and 14-0 ATS in Orlando’s last 14 on the road. In fact, the winner is 22-2-1 ATS when the Magic hit the highway this season.
The Magic hammered the Hornets 88-68 as a five-point home favorite back on Christmas Day, and these clubs have alternated SU wins in the last seven clashes going back to 2005. The ‘dog is on an 8-1-1 ATS run in this rivalry, and the visitor is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head battles, with the Magic cashing in four of their last five trips to New Orleans.
Orlando carries positive ATS trends of 23-9 overall, 50-24-3 on the road, 35-17-1 against the Western Conference, 6-1 on Wednesday and 5-1 when playing back-to-back contests. However, the Magic have failed to cover in four of their last five against winning teams. New Orleans is 36-17 ATS in its last 53 games on Wednesday, but otherwise the Hornets are in ATS funks of 1-4-1 against the Southeast Division and 1-4 when playing on consecutive nights.
These teams have stayed under the total in nine of the last 10 meetings, including the last five in a row overall and the last five in a row in New Orleans. Furthermore, Orlando is on “under” streaks of 4-2 overall, 4-1 against the Western Conference and 5-0 against winning teams. Also, the Hornets are riding “under” streaks of 12-5-1 against the Eastern Conference, 7-1 against the Southeast Division and 7-0 versus winning teams.
Conversely, the over is 7-3 in the Magic’s last 10 road games, 4-1 in the Hornets’ last five at home and 7-3 in the Hornets’ last 10 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
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