Sports Advisors
Chicago Cubs (86-57) at St. Louis (77-66)
The slumping Cubs look to get back on track and extend their lead in the N.L. Central when they send Ryan Dempster (15-6, 2.99 ERA) to the mound to open a three-game series against the archrival Cardinals and Kyle Lohse (13-6, 3.76).
Chicago blew a 3-1 ninth-inning lead at Cincinnati on Sunday, falling 4-3 for its seventh loss in its last eight games. Despite that result, the Cubs are still 14-3 in their last 17 road games, 4-1 in their last five on Tuesdays, and they lead the N.L. Central by 4½ games over Milwaukee.
St. Louis, which was idle on Monday along with Chicago, capped a weekend home series versus Florida with a pair of wins on Saturday (5-3) and Sunday (3-1), which came on the heels of a 1-6 slump. The Redbirds are 8-5 in their last 13 games at Busch Stadium, but on the downside, they’re mired in skids of 1-4 against division rivals, 1-4 after an off day and 0-6 with Lohse on the hill.
The Cubs are 15-7 in the last 22 series meetings in this rivalry, but only 5-4 this year. In fact, the home and road teams have alternated wins and losses in all nine clashes in 2008, with Cubs winning the most recent battle at home.
After a seven-start stretch in which he yielded two earned runs or fewer each time, Dempster has stumbled a bit the last two times out, giving up seven runs in 13 innings (4.85 ERA). Still, the Cubs are 4-1 in his last five starts, and he’s 3-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 11 road efforts. In his only start against the Cardinals this season, the right-hander gave up two runs in 6 2/3 innings, winning 6-2 at home.
Lohse has been a tough-luck pitcher of late, delivering four straight quality starts (2.77 ERA) but he’s got nothing to show for it. Not only are the Cardinals winless in his last six starts, but they’re 1-8 in his last nine, scoring three runs or fewer in seven of those contests. Lohse is 7-2 with a 3.16 ERA at home and 0-1 with a 6.92 ERA in two starts against Chicago in 2008.
The under is on runs of 4-0 for the Cardinals overall, 4-1-1 for the Cardinals at home, 12-5-1 for the Cardinals following a day off and 6-2-1 when these teams face off in St. Louis. Conversely, Chicago sports over streaks of 16-5 on the road, 20-6 on the road against right-handed starters, 4-1 behind Dempster overall and 5-0 when Dempster hurls on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (85-57) at Boston (85-58)
The Rays, clinging to a half-game lead over the Red Sox in the A.L. East, send ace Scott Kazmir (11-6, 2.99) to the mound opposite Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka (16-2, 2.88) in the middle game of a crucial three-game set at Fenway Park.
The Red Sox shutout the Rays 3-0 last night to continue to close in on Tampa for the division lead. Boston has won six of its last seven overall and is on rolls of 56-20 at home, 7-1 against the A.L. East and 21-4 in Matsuzaka’s 25 starts this season (12-2 at home). Going back to last year, the Red Sox are 40-18 behind Matsuzaka, including 23-6 in his last 29 at Fenway.
Tampa Bay has lost six of its last seven overall, five straight on the road and five of its last six against A.L. East rivals. On the bright side, the Rays are 17-5 in Kazmir’s last 22 outings, including 8-1 in his last nine.
Boston now holds a slim 7-6 lead against the Rays in the season series, with the home team winning all 13 meetings. Additionally, Boston has beaten Tampa Bay nine straight times at Fenway dating back to last season, and the Red Sox are on a 46-9 run against the Rays in Beantown and 99-46 against them overall dating back several years.
Kazmir is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last four starts (all Tampa wins), and he hasn’t scattered four hits and eight walks over 11 1/3 innings in his two most recent starts (both at home). The southpaw is only 4-5 with a 3.96 ERA on the road and 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in two starts against Boston this season. For his career, though, he’s 6-6 with a 3.02 ERA against the Red Sox, including 4-4 with a 3.02 ERA at Fenway Park.
Matsuzaka has won five straight decisions and the Red Sox are undefeated in his last seven trips to the mound. On Wednesday against Baltimore, the right-hander gave up four runs (three earned) on four hits and four walks in six innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s come-from-behind 5-4 victory. The Japanese native has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 18 of his 25 outings.
Matsuzaka is 9-2 with a 3.05 ERA at home, but 1-3 with a 3.79 ERA in six career starts against the Rays. One of those starts came on July 2 at Tampa Bay, and Matsuzaka gave up a run on two hits and five walks in five innings, getting a no-decision in his team’s 7-6 defeat.
For Tampa Bay, the over is on runs of 8-2 against the A.L. East, 8-2 overall and 5-3 on the highway. However, the under is 5-1 in Kazmir’s last six road starts, 24-9-2 in his last 35 versus winning teams and 7-3 in his last 10 outings at Fenway Park. For the Sox, the under is on runs of 8-2-1 in their last 11 overall, 5-1-1 at home, 5-1-1 behind Matsuzaka overall, 4-0 when Matsuzaka pitches at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
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