Sportwagers
AL Wild Card game
KANSAS CITY -103 over Oakland
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]We like the A's experience, specifically Jon Lester who has appeared in 14 playoff games with 12 of those being of the starting variety but we [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]can't trust Oakland's offense to deliver in support of Lester. We've faded that laboring offense several times down the stretch and we'll do so again here against James Shields. Current A's have just 43 hits in 200 career AB's against Shields for a BA of .215. The A's hit a measly .217 down the stretch over their last 15 games when it mattered most and it's also worth noting that the Royals took five of seven games from the Athletics this season. Shields has a BB/K split of 5/34 over his last six starts covering 42 innings. Over that stretch he posted an ERA of 0.86 with an outstanding 53% groundball rate and 12% swing and miss rate.
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[FONT=arial !important]Lester is dealing it too but his groundball rate over his last 42 innings was just 41%. Lester also posted a very high 81% strand rate over the entire season and a 88% strand rate over his last six starts. Current Royals have hit .243 against Lester in 218 career AB's, which is 28 points higher than Oakland batters have hit over Shields in a comparable number of at-bats. One also has to favor the Royals outstanding bullpen more than Oakland's and there's a very good chance that the pens will end up deciding this one. Then there's the all-important ability to manufacture runs in what figures to be a low scoring game (the total is 6½). Kansas City led the majors with 87 stolen bases while Oakland stole just 47. It's often been said that bases are stolen off pitchers, not catchers and if that's the case, give Kansas City and James Shields the edge there too. In 227 innings pitched this season, Shields' has been stolen on just six times while Lester has been stolen on 16 times in 219 innings.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]It's one game and anything can happen but the A's were horrible on the road in the second half and their offense has been brutally awful for well over two months. When we break this all down, we don't see one area where the A's have an advantage (offense, speed, defense, bullpens, starters, current form) other than experience but that's certainly not enough to make a case for the A's on the road in a one-game showdown. [/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]Our Pick[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]KANSAS CITY -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)[/FONT]
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AL Wild Card game
KANSAS CITY -103 over Oakland
[FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]We like the A's experience, specifically Jon Lester who has appeared in 14 playoff games with 12 of those being of the starting variety but we [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=arial !important][FONT=arial !important]can't trust Oakland's offense to deliver in support of Lester. We've faded that laboring offense several times down the stretch and we'll do so again here against James Shields. Current A's have just 43 hits in 200 career AB's against Shields for a BA of .215. The A's hit a measly .217 down the stretch over their last 15 games when it mattered most and it's also worth noting that the Royals took five of seven games from the Athletics this season. Shields has a BB/K split of 5/34 over his last six starts covering 42 innings. Over that stretch he posted an ERA of 0.86 with an outstanding 53% groundball rate and 12% swing and miss rate.
[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]Lester is dealing it too but his groundball rate over his last 42 innings was just 41%. Lester also posted a very high 81% strand rate over the entire season and a 88% strand rate over his last six starts. Current Royals have hit .243 against Lester in 218 career AB's, which is 28 points higher than Oakland batters have hit over Shields in a comparable number of at-bats. One also has to favor the Royals outstanding bullpen more than Oakland's and there's a very good chance that the pens will end up deciding this one. Then there's the all-important ability to manufacture runs in what figures to be a low scoring game (the total is 6½). Kansas City led the majors with 87 stolen bases while Oakland stole just 47. It's often been said that bases are stolen off pitchers, not catchers and if that's the case, give Kansas City and James Shields the edge there too. In 227 innings pitched this season, Shields' has been stolen on just six times while Lester has been stolen on 16 times in 219 innings.[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]It's one game and anything can happen but the A's were horrible on the road in the second half and their offense has been brutally awful for well over two months. When we break this all down, we don't see one area where the A's have an advantage (offense, speed, defense, bullpens, starters, current form) other than experience but that's certainly not enough to make a case for the A's on the road in a one-game showdown. [/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]Our Pick[/FONT]
[FONT=arial !important]KANSAS CITY -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)[/FONT]
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VegasButcher - Under 6.5 A's/Royals
Keep in mind, all stats quoted in my analysis for the playoffs is for 2nd half of the season only, unless specified. A lot of playoff teams make trades and other roster moves, which isn’t truly captured in the full-year results at time. I feel it’s better to focus on 2nd half data when teams improve their BP (Angels), lose a hitter (A’s, BAL), or add starting pitching (A’s, SFG, etc.).
Everyone knows that A’s went 16-29 (36%) to close out the year. What people might now know is that they went 5-13 in 1-run games or extra-innings, which is something that tends to even out over a long run. The reason for their inability to win close games was their poor hitting. With Cespedes getting traded and players like Moss/Norris/Reddick/etc. cooling off from their unsustainable 1st half performances, it wasn’t a surprise to see Oakland’s offense decline. They’re ranked 10th overall on the year still, but their 2nd half performance is at mediocre 22nd. They had a wRC+ of 89 and only .299 wOBA in the 2nd half of the year. You’re going to be involved in a lot of close (1-run) games this way and tend to lose more than not. In addition, remember that Doolittle missed time late in the season with an injury, which didn’t help the matters. That’s why the A’s BP ranks 16th for the 2nd half of the year, after being top-10 for majority of the season. Doolittle is healthy yet the offense will probably continue to struggle going forward. KC’s offense wasn’t much better, ranking 18th in the 2nd half of the year with a 93 wRC+ and .301 wOBA. Just like the A’s, Royals aren’t good offensively but they have the 8th best BP and an elite defense ranking #2.
Both teams will also have their best pitchers on the mound. Lester is my 19th ranked starter over the 2nd half of the year. In last year’s post-season for the Red Sox he went 34 innings with 29K to 8 BB and an ERA of 1.6. He also held KC to 2.6 ERA in his 3 starts against them this year. Shields is coming into this matchup posting 2.6 FIP with a 7.5 K/BB rate in September, his best mark of the year. He possess the kind of off-speed arsenal that has given the A’s fits in the 2nd half of the year, where they rank in the bottom-10 against both the ‘cutter’ and the ‘changeup’. I think both starters will have very good starts tonight against struggling offensive lineups. Defense and bullpens will determine the outcome of this one but that’s too close to call here. I believe the UNDER is a much stronger play than the side in this one.
Keep in mind, all stats quoted in my analysis for the playoffs is for 2nd half of the season only, unless specified. A lot of playoff teams make trades and other roster moves, which isn’t truly captured in the full-year results at time. I feel it’s better to focus on 2nd half data when teams improve their BP (Angels), lose a hitter (A’s, BAL), or add starting pitching (A’s, SFG, etc.).
Everyone knows that A’s went 16-29 (36%) to close out the year. What people might now know is that they went 5-13 in 1-run games or extra-innings, which is something that tends to even out over a long run. The reason for their inability to win close games was their poor hitting. With Cespedes getting traded and players like Moss/Norris/Reddick/etc. cooling off from their unsustainable 1st half performances, it wasn’t a surprise to see Oakland’s offense decline. They’re ranked 10th overall on the year still, but their 2nd half performance is at mediocre 22nd. They had a wRC+ of 89 and only .299 wOBA in the 2nd half of the year. You’re going to be involved in a lot of close (1-run) games this way and tend to lose more than not. In addition, remember that Doolittle missed time late in the season with an injury, which didn’t help the matters. That’s why the A’s BP ranks 16th for the 2nd half of the year, after being top-10 for majority of the season. Doolittle is healthy yet the offense will probably continue to struggle going forward. KC’s offense wasn’t much better, ranking 18th in the 2nd half of the year with a 93 wRC+ and .301 wOBA. Just like the A’s, Royals aren’t good offensively but they have the 8th best BP and an elite defense ranking #2.
Both teams will also have their best pitchers on the mound. Lester is my 19th ranked starter over the 2nd half of the year. In last year’s post-season for the Red Sox he went 34 innings with 29K to 8 BB and an ERA of 1.6. He also held KC to 2.6 ERA in his 3 starts against them this year. Shields is coming into this matchup posting 2.6 FIP with a 7.5 K/BB rate in September, his best mark of the year. He possess the kind of off-speed arsenal that has given the A’s fits in the 2nd half of the year, where they rank in the bottom-10 against both the ‘cutter’ and the ‘changeup’. I think both starters will have very good starts tonight against struggling offensive lineups. Defense and bullpens will determine the outcome of this one but that’s too close to call here. I believe the UNDER is a much stronger play than the side in this one.
