SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +101 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays have been extremely streaky so when they’re hot, they’re hot and when they’re cold, they’re freezing, which happens to be right now. The Blue Jays won the opener of a three-game series in Houston but subsequently lost the final three games of that series and were outscored 17-4 in the process. More disturbing, however, is the Jays inability to produce against two of the worst starters (Brad Oberholtzer and Scott Feldman) in the majors in the final two games of that series. When the Jays went cold back in June, they went cold for practically the entire month and appear headed in that direction again. Now they’ll face Bud Norris. Norris injured his groin on June 21 while pitching against the Yanks and missed a couple of starts. He has had a steady 2014 season thus far, with a 50%/0% dominant start/disaster start split. He’s also been sharp since returning with 20 K’s in his last 23 innings and a nice 47%/29% groundball/fly-ball split. Norris has a swing and miss slider, outstanding control and while his K is down on the year, it’s been creeping up lately.
Baltimore’s win yesterday may have been one of the most impressive of the season. After a three-game set against the Mariners on the weekend, the O’s had to play a make-up game against the first place Nats in Washington yesterday for one game before this huge three-game series with the second place Jays. The O’s fell behind twice and we’re trailing 3-1 in the seventh before going off for six answered in a 7-3 victory. Instead of “looking ahead” to this important series they responded with a focused effort and the task at hand. That gives you an idea of the mindset and determination of the Orioles. More importantly, the O’s went off for 14 hits and that’s the first time in their past 16 games that they had 10 or more hits in a game. They could easily duplicate that against Mark Buehrle. Since opening the year on an 8-1 tear with a low ERA, Buehrle has gone 3-7 since. His ERA is still low at 3.11 but it’s still a mirage. His base skills profile him as a mid-4 ERA pitcher. Buehrle has just 82 K’s in 142 innings to go along with a WHIP of 1.33. A 79% strand rate and 6% hr/f are the only reasons he has a helpful ERA and we can assure more of those fly-balls he surrenders are going to leave the yard in the final seven weeks of the season and we’re all over it.
Boston +140 over ST. LOUIS
The Red Sox will play out the string in the role of the spoiler and it would come as no surprise if they thrived in that role. This is an extremely dangerous offense that can go off at any time and they certainly have a chance to do that against Lance Lynn. Lynn’s 2.98 ERA is almost a full run higher than his xERA of 3.81. He’s posted a 1.96 ERA over his last three starts but an alarming 44% line-drive rate over that span reveals a ton of hard hit balls right at people. Lynn is also walking far too many batters and has now issued 52 free passes in 133 innings and 12 over his past 26 innings. Lynn is living on the edge with his 84% strand rate since the beginning of June but when a pitcher is giving up line drives and walks, disaster is waiting in the not too distant future.
Rubby De la Rosa had a really rough July, both on the surface (5.32 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) and beneath it: 2.9 K’s/9, 3.3 BB/9, 44% groundball rate. However, with mid-90s heat, a potentially impact changeup, and an ability to induce groundballs, De La Rosa has the tools to become an impact starter. He's a work-in-progress to be sure but he also has the ability to dazzle. Facing a weak hitting NL team in a favorable park may just be the recipe he needs right now to get back on track. What we know for sure is that Lynn is an overvalued pitcher, which provides us with this a nice buy-low/sell-high opportunity.
N.Y. Mets +147 over WASHINGTON
The Nationals are not the same team with Ryan Zimmerman on the rack. Zimmerman is on the DL and with him the lineup the Nationals are 33-19 this season. Without him they are just 28-32 but over their past 27 games without him, Washington is just 9-18. Gio Gonzalez missed a month from mid-May to mid-June and it appears that more trouble is brewing. Gonzalez has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in two of his past three starts. Gonzalez had a coming out party during his inaugural season in Washington with a sub-3.00 ERA and 21 wins. However, he's struggled at times since then and he's flirting with a .500 record and a very ordinary ERA as the season enters the stretch drive. Gonzalez is issuing more walks, he’s giving up more hits and he’s not lasting deep into games.
Zach Wheeler offers up nothing but value at this price. Wheeler has posted outstanding skills in two separate months (April and July). His skills in July featured excellent command and a continued groundball tilt. Overall, Wheeler has posted an elite 53% groundball rate. He has 125 K’s in 128 innings and his swing and miss rate in July was also elite at 11%. Only two starters in the NL had a higher four-seam fastball velocity than Wheeler's 94.7 mph fastball in July; Wily Peralta (95.5 mph) and Stephen Strasburg (95.1 mph). Wheeler is a future ace with major breakout potential but he’s not being priced as such, which makes him a must play in this range. Definite overlay.
Tampa Bay +116 over OAKLAND
Despite being issued nine free passes by the Rays pitching last night, the A’s scored just three runs and two of them came on seeing-eye singles. Oakland has been struggling miserably at the plate recently and they are hitting just .242 against lefties this year, which ranks 27th out of the 30 MLB teams. Lefty Drew Smyly began to piece things together as a starter with Detroit in July. Smyly has always had great stuff but the transition from reliever to starter has been a slow one. When you’re the main piece in a trade for David Price, it says something. Smyly has 19 K’s over his past 17.2 innings. His combination of a 10% swing and miss rate and 65% first pitch strike rate gives his underlying skills strong support. No question that Smyly will be a little extra jacked up here in his first start with his new team.
Meanwhile, Jason Hammel has had a terrible time since joining the A's, going 0-4 in four starts, with a 9.53 ERA, 2.12 WHIP and 12/10 K/BB. This after going 8-5 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 17 starts with the Cubs. It hasn't been bad luck that has derailed Hammel since arriving in Oakland, as his plummeting skills are to be blamed. Should we be surprised at Hammel’s struggles in his new digs? The answer is a resounding no. The A’s are Hammel’s fourth team in eight years. In 2012 he posted a 3.43 ERA with the Orioles but his other years saw him post ERA’s of 7.77, 6.14, 4.60, 4.81, 4.97 and 4.33. That 2012 ERA and first half with the Cubbies this year looks like a blind squirrel finding a nut. Hammel’s history says it all. He’s an average pitcher with average stuff that has never thrived for an extended period of time. That first win (with his new team) becomes more elusive with each loss and it’s safe to say that Hammel is not very comfortable in his new surroundings. Hammel is starter to avoid rightnow, especially when spotting a tag.
Baltimore +101 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays have been extremely streaky so when they’re hot, they’re hot and when they’re cold, they’re freezing, which happens to be right now. The Blue Jays won the opener of a three-game series in Houston but subsequently lost the final three games of that series and were outscored 17-4 in the process. More disturbing, however, is the Jays inability to produce against two of the worst starters (Brad Oberholtzer and Scott Feldman) in the majors in the final two games of that series. When the Jays went cold back in June, they went cold for practically the entire month and appear headed in that direction again. Now they’ll face Bud Norris. Norris injured his groin on June 21 while pitching against the Yanks and missed a couple of starts. He has had a steady 2014 season thus far, with a 50%/0% dominant start/disaster start split. He’s also been sharp since returning with 20 K’s in his last 23 innings and a nice 47%/29% groundball/fly-ball split. Norris has a swing and miss slider, outstanding control and while his K is down on the year, it’s been creeping up lately.
Baltimore’s win yesterday may have been one of the most impressive of the season. After a three-game set against the Mariners on the weekend, the O’s had to play a make-up game against the first place Nats in Washington yesterday for one game before this huge three-game series with the second place Jays. The O’s fell behind twice and we’re trailing 3-1 in the seventh before going off for six answered in a 7-3 victory. Instead of “looking ahead” to this important series they responded with a focused effort and the task at hand. That gives you an idea of the mindset and determination of the Orioles. More importantly, the O’s went off for 14 hits and that’s the first time in their past 16 games that they had 10 or more hits in a game. They could easily duplicate that against Mark Buehrle. Since opening the year on an 8-1 tear with a low ERA, Buehrle has gone 3-7 since. His ERA is still low at 3.11 but it’s still a mirage. His base skills profile him as a mid-4 ERA pitcher. Buehrle has just 82 K’s in 142 innings to go along with a WHIP of 1.33. A 79% strand rate and 6% hr/f are the only reasons he has a helpful ERA and we can assure more of those fly-balls he surrenders are going to leave the yard in the final seven weeks of the season and we’re all over it.
Boston +140 over ST. LOUIS
The Red Sox will play out the string in the role of the spoiler and it would come as no surprise if they thrived in that role. This is an extremely dangerous offense that can go off at any time and they certainly have a chance to do that against Lance Lynn. Lynn’s 2.98 ERA is almost a full run higher than his xERA of 3.81. He’s posted a 1.96 ERA over his last three starts but an alarming 44% line-drive rate over that span reveals a ton of hard hit balls right at people. Lynn is also walking far too many batters and has now issued 52 free passes in 133 innings and 12 over his past 26 innings. Lynn is living on the edge with his 84% strand rate since the beginning of June but when a pitcher is giving up line drives and walks, disaster is waiting in the not too distant future.
Rubby De la Rosa had a really rough July, both on the surface (5.32 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) and beneath it: 2.9 K’s/9, 3.3 BB/9, 44% groundball rate. However, with mid-90s heat, a potentially impact changeup, and an ability to induce groundballs, De La Rosa has the tools to become an impact starter. He's a work-in-progress to be sure but he also has the ability to dazzle. Facing a weak hitting NL team in a favorable park may just be the recipe he needs right now to get back on track. What we know for sure is that Lynn is an overvalued pitcher, which provides us with this a nice buy-low/sell-high opportunity.
N.Y. Mets +147 over WASHINGTON
The Nationals are not the same team with Ryan Zimmerman on the rack. Zimmerman is on the DL and with him the lineup the Nationals are 33-19 this season. Without him they are just 28-32 but over their past 27 games without him, Washington is just 9-18. Gio Gonzalez missed a month from mid-May to mid-June and it appears that more trouble is brewing. Gonzalez has failed to make it out of the fourth inning in two of his past three starts. Gonzalez had a coming out party during his inaugural season in Washington with a sub-3.00 ERA and 21 wins. However, he's struggled at times since then and he's flirting with a .500 record and a very ordinary ERA as the season enters the stretch drive. Gonzalez is issuing more walks, he’s giving up more hits and he’s not lasting deep into games.
Zach Wheeler offers up nothing but value at this price. Wheeler has posted outstanding skills in two separate months (April and July). His skills in July featured excellent command and a continued groundball tilt. Overall, Wheeler has posted an elite 53% groundball rate. He has 125 K’s in 128 innings and his swing and miss rate in July was also elite at 11%. Only two starters in the NL had a higher four-seam fastball velocity than Wheeler's 94.7 mph fastball in July; Wily Peralta (95.5 mph) and Stephen Strasburg (95.1 mph). Wheeler is a future ace with major breakout potential but he’s not being priced as such, which makes him a must play in this range. Definite overlay.
Tampa Bay +116 over OAKLAND
Despite being issued nine free passes by the Rays pitching last night, the A’s scored just three runs and two of them came on seeing-eye singles. Oakland has been struggling miserably at the plate recently and they are hitting just .242 against lefties this year, which ranks 27th out of the 30 MLB teams. Lefty Drew Smyly began to piece things together as a starter with Detroit in July. Smyly has always had great stuff but the transition from reliever to starter has been a slow one. When you’re the main piece in a trade for David Price, it says something. Smyly has 19 K’s over his past 17.2 innings. His combination of a 10% swing and miss rate and 65% first pitch strike rate gives his underlying skills strong support. No question that Smyly will be a little extra jacked up here in his first start with his new team.
Meanwhile, Jason Hammel has had a terrible time since joining the A's, going 0-4 in four starts, with a 9.53 ERA, 2.12 WHIP and 12/10 K/BB. This after going 8-5 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 17 starts with the Cubs. It hasn't been bad luck that has derailed Hammel since arriving in Oakland, as his plummeting skills are to be blamed. Should we be surprised at Hammel’s struggles in his new digs? The answer is a resounding no. The A’s are Hammel’s fourth team in eight years. In 2012 he posted a 3.43 ERA with the Orioles but his other years saw him post ERA’s of 7.77, 6.14, 4.60, 4.81, 4.97 and 4.33. That 2012 ERA and first half with the Cubbies this year looks like a blind squirrel finding a nut. Hammel’s history says it all. He’s an average pitcher with average stuff that has never thrived for an extended period of time. That first win (with his new team) becomes more elusive with each loss and it’s safe to say that Hammel is not very comfortable in his new surroundings. Hammel is starter to avoid rightnow, especially when spotting a tag.
