STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, AUGUST 25th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 8/25/15 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2015 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Rounding The Bases – Tuesday
National League
•Mets @ Phillies
--Mets are 1-8 in Syndergaard road starts; he is 1-1, 6.19 in his last three starts; his last four starts went over the total.
--Williams is 1-2, 5.92 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1).
--Mets won ten of last 11 games with Philly; four of last five went over total. New York won five of last six games; seven of their last eight went over total. Phillies won four of their last six; five of their last seven went over total.
•Padres @ Nationals
--Shields is 0-1, 4.42 in his last three road starts; his last four starts overall went over the total.
--Strasburg went to San Diego State; he is 4-1, 1.51 in his last six starts; six of his last seven stayed under the total.
--Padres lost three of last four games with Washington; four of last five series games went over. San Diego won seven of last nine games (over 8-2 in last 10). Nationals won four of last six games (over 5-3-1 in last nine).
•Rockies @ Braves
--Bettis is making first start since July 18; he is 1-2, 8.55 in his last four starts. Four of his last five starts went over.
--Foltynewicz is 0-2, 12.54 in his last two starts; his last four all went over.
--Colorado won five of last six games with Atlanta; three of last five stayed under the total. Rockies lost nine of last 11 games (over 7-4). Braves are 1-7 in their last eight games (over 6-2).
•Pirates @ Marlins
--Morton is 2-0, 2.88 in his last four starts; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine.
--Hand is 2-1, 3.13 in his last four starts (over 2-2).
--Pirates won nine of last 11 games with Miami; last four stayed under total. Pittsburgh won ten of last 12 games; five of last six stayed under. Marlins lost five of last six games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten.
•Dodgers @ Reds
--Wood is 1-2, 5.01 in his last four starts.
--Lamb is 0-1, 6.35 in his first two MLB starts (over 2-0).
--Dodgers won their last three games with Cincinnati; three of last four series games went over. LA lost its last five games, scoring nine runs- five of their last six stayed under. Reds lost nine of last ten games (over 4-1 in last five).
•Cardinals @ Diamondbacks
--Garcia is 2-0, 1.69 in his last four starts (under 4-0-1 in last five).
--Ray is 0-4, 5.48 in his last four starts (under 4-0).
--St Louis won ten of last 11 games with Arizona; under is 7-2-1 in last ten series games. D'backs won four of last five games, scoring 29 runs; under is 4-3-1 in their last eight. Cardinals split last eight games (over 3-0-1 last four).
•Cubs @ Giants
--Arrieta is 4-0, 0.99 in his last four starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight.
--Cain is 0-2, 7.01 in his last five starts; over is 5-0-2 in his last seven.
--Cubs won last four games with the Giants (over 3-1); Chicago won last five games overall, scoring 32 runs (over 7-3 in last ten). SF lost four of its last five; under is 5-1-2 in their last eight games.
American League
•Astros @ Yankees
--Keuchel is 2-1, 2.60 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.
--Nova is 1-2, 5.19 in his last three starts; six of his last seven stayed under.
--Astros lost three of last four games with New York; six of last seven in series stayed under total. Houston won five of last seven games (under 7-0). Yankees lost three of last five games overall; under is 7-4-1 in their last twelve.
•Angels @ Tigers
--Weaver is 1-1, 2.60 in his last three starts; three of his last four went under.
--Simon is 1-1, 2.57 in his last two starts; four of his last six stayed under.
--Angels won their last seven games with Detroit (under 5-2); Halos gave up 44 runs in losing last four games- five of their last six went over. Tigers lost last four games, allowing 23 runs; four of their last five stayed under.
•Twins @ Rays
--Santana is 0-4, 9.11 in his last five starts (under 5-1 in last six on road).
--Karns is 2-0, 3.33 in his last five starts; (over 2-0-1 last three at home).
--Minnesota lost four of last six games with Tampa Bay; over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Twins won last four games, scoring 26 runs; four of their last five stayed under. Rays won three of last four (under 4-2 in last six) games.
•Orioles @ Royals
--Gonzalez is 0-3, 7.82 in his last five starts; seven of last ten went over.
--Duffy is 2-1, 3.80 in his last four starts; nine of his last ten stayed under.
--Orioles lost their last seven games with Kansas City; under is 5-4 in last nine series games. Baltimore lost six of last seven games; three of last four stayed under total. Royals won eight of last ten games (over 3-0-1 in last four).
•Blue Jays @ Rangers
--Buehrle is 2-1, 4.70 in his last five starts; five of his last six went over.
--Holland is 1-1, 3.68 in his two starts this year (under 1-0-1).
--Toronto won four of last five games with Texas; eight of last ten games went under total. Blue Jays won five of last six games; they scored 36 runs in last three-- their last five went over. Rangers won eight of last ten games (under is 7-0-1 in their last eight games).
•Red Sox @ White Sox
--Miley is 2-0, 188 in his last two starts; four of his last six went over.
--Quintana is 1-1, 4.01 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over.
--Red Sox lost three of last five games with Chicago; seven of last eight series games got over total. Boston won five of last seven games; over is 12-1-1 in its last fourteen games. White Sox won three of last five games; six of their last seven went over.
•Athletics @ Mariners
--Chavez is 2-1, 3.00 in his last three starts- they all stayed under.
--Seattle lost last eight Montgomery starts (0-4, 8.15); over is 2-0-1 in his last three.
--Oakland lost seven of last ten games with Seattle; three of last five stayed under the total. A's are 4-9 in their last 13 games overall, but scored 19 runs in winning last two. Mariners lost seven of last ten games (over 7-2-1).
Interleague
•Brewers @ Indians
--Peralta is 2-2, 604 in his last four starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine.
--Tomlin is 1-1, 2.03 in his two starts this season (under 2-0).
--Brewers won eight of last nine games with Cleveland; last five went over the total. Milwaukee lost four of last six games )over 4-0-1 in last five). Indians are 3-2 in last five games, but scored only seven runs in last three-- over is 5-3 in their last eight.
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•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- NY-Phil-- Syndergaard 9-9; Williams 7-13
-- SD-Wsh-- Shields 12-14 (3-11 last 14); Strasburg 8-8 (5-1 last 6)
-- Pitt-Mia-- Morton 12-4 (5-0 last 5); Hand 3-4
-- Col-Atl-- Bettis 8-5; Foltynewicz 6-8
-- LA-Cin-- Wood 9-16/1-3; Lamb 0-2
-- StL-Az-- Garcia 7-5 (4-0 last 4); Ray 4-11
-- Chi-SF-- Arrieta 17-8 (9-1 last 10); Cain 4-5
-- Hst-NY-- Keuchel 17-8; Nova 5-5
-- LA-Det-- Weaver 8-10; Simon 14-9 (5-1 last 6)
-- Minn-TB-- Santana 3-6 (0-5 last 5); Karns 11-13
-- Tor-Tex-- Buehrle 14-10; Holland 1-1
-- Balt-KC-- Gonzalez 12-11; Duffy 12-7 (7-2 last 9)
-- Bos-Chi-- Miley 12-13; Quintana 10-15
-- A's-Sea-- Chavez 7-15; Montgomery 4-11 (0-8 last 8)
-- Mil-Clev-- Peralta 6-8; Tomlin 1-1
•Times This Starting Pitcher Allowed A Run In First Inning
-- NY-Phil-- Syndergaard 6-18; Williams 7-20
-- SD-Wsh-- Shields 7-26; Strasburg 4-16
-- Pitt-Mia-- Morton 8-16; Hand 3-7
-- Col-Atl-- Bettis 3-13; Foltynewicz 6-14
-- LA-Cin-- Wood 8-25; Lamb 1-2
-- StL-Az-- Garcia 2-12; Ray 2-15
-- Chi-SF-- Arrieta 4-25; Cain 4-9
-- Hst-NY-- Keuchel 4-25; Nova 1-10
-- LA-Det-- Weaver 5-18; Simon 3-23
-- Minn-TB-- Santana 1-9; Karns 11-24 (3 of last 3)
-- Tor-Tex-- Buehrle 13-24; Holland 1-2
-- Balt-KC-- Gonzalez 6-23; Duffy 3-19
-- Bos-Chi-- Miley 7-25; Quintana 14-25
-- A's-Sea-- Chavez 6-22; Montgomery 4-15
-- Mil-Clev-- Peralta 5-14; Tomlin 0-2
•Umpires Trends
-- NY-Phil-- Under is 8-3-1 in last twelve Bellino games.
-- Pitt-Mia-- Home side won five of last six O'Nora games.
-- Col-Atl-- Under is 8-4 in last twelve Knight games.
-- StL-Az-- Over is 9-5-1 in last fourteen Fairchild games.
-- Hst-NY-- Underdogs won 12 of last 16 Cooper games.
-- Bos-Chi-- Over is 8-5 in last thirteen Ripperger games.
-- Balt-KC-- Under is 15-3-1 in last nineteen Tumpane games.
-- A's-Sea-- Four of last five Reynolds games stayed under.
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Incredible Stats of the Day
•The Over Is Cashing When The Padres Are Dogs
The over is 6-0 in the San Diego Padres last six games when they are listed as an underdog and that will be the case when they visit the Washington Nationals Tuesday night. Being a pup hasn't stopped the Padres from scoring runs, plating 5.5 runs per game over that six game stretch, but they are still giving up plenty, allowing 7.5 at the same time. The Padres and scheduled starter James Shields (18-7 O/U, 3.74 ERA) are currently +156 underdogs for tonight's matchup with the Nats and Stephen Strasburgh (8-8 O/U, 4.22 ERA).
•Angels Have Been Abysmal Away From Home Recently
The Los Angeles Angels have gone 1-12 in their last 13 ball games away from home heading into their recent nine-game trip starting in Detroit Tuesday. The lone road win came at the Kansas City Royals back on Aug. 13 when the Halos prevailed 7-6. On their current road trip, the Angels play three games in Detroit,followed by three in Cleveland and three in Oakland. Jered Weaver gets the ball for the Angels (-113) on Tuesday as the Tigers (+104) are expected to counter with Alfredo Simon.
•Astros Not Happy To See Cooper Behind The Plate
The Houston Astros are just 1-12 in the last 13 games where Eric Cooper has been calling balls and strikes and that is exactly where he will be when the Astros visit the New York Yankees Tuesday. The Astros are hoping that whomever is behind the plate doesn't matter Dallas Keuchel (10-15 O/U), 2.37 ERA) as he faces off against the Yankees Ivan Nova (2-7 O/U, 3.72 ERA). The Astros are currently -123 favorites with a total of 7.5.
•Keuchel Not Getting The Job Done As A Road Fave
Houston Astros starter Dallas Keuchel is having a great 2015 campaign, but things are a little tougher now that he is consistently facing chalk on the road, with the Astros losing six straight road games where Keuchel is the favorite. In those six starts Keuchel has pitched to a 4.68 ERA in those six starts with 27 strikeouts to 11 walks. Keuchel will be a road favorite Tuesday when they continue their series with the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The Astros are currently -123 faves going up against Yanks starter Ivan Nova.
•Ripperger Is No Friend To Red Sox Bettors
The Boston Red Sox have gone 0-5 in their last five ball games with Mark Ripperger behind home plate. That's exactly where Ripperger will be when the Sox tangle with the Chicago White Sox Tuesday evening. That string of games dates back to 2011 and includes one game this year. Ripperger was calling balls and strikes when the Red Sox lost 10-8 to the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park back on Aug. 16. Wade Miley is expected to get the ball for the Red Sox (+118) while Jose Quintana is probable to start for the Pale Hose (-128).
•Syndergaard A Different Pitcher Away From Home
New York Mets pitcher Noah Syndergaard has been sensational in his home starts this season. Unfortunately, he's been the exact opposite on the road. In nine road starts, Syndergaard is 0-5 with a 5.05 ERA. The Mets have gone just 1-8 in those nine starts. Their lone win came against the Los Angeles Dodgers back on July 3. The 22-year-old looks to rebound versus Philadelphia, against which he scattered six hits in 7 1/3 frames en route to a 7-0 rout May 27.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•TEXAS is 27-13 (+22.7 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 4.9, OPPONENT 4.0.
•KANSAS CITY is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) in home games after 3 straight games where they committed no errors this season.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.4, OPPONENT 1.6.
•NY METS are 11-0 (+12.7 Units) against the run line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was NY METS 8.8, OPPONENT 3.5.
•MATT CAIN is 1-11 (-12.9 Units) against the money line against National League Central opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CAIN 3.3, OPPONENT 6.1.
•JERED WEAVER is 45-17 UNDER (+25.9 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was WEAVER 3.7, OPPONENT 3.2.
•JOSE QUINTANA is 1-19 (-17.4 Units) against the run line as a favorite when the run line price is -190 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was QUINTANA 3.1, OPPONENT 4.9.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts (American League) against a terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game), with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games.
(33-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.7%, +36.1 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +148.9
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 3.9 (Average run differential = +0.3)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +6.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-5, +17.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (103-168, -13.0 units).
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