SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO +104 over Kansas City
The White Sox took the opener last night and have now won three of their last four. Scott Carroll has an ERA of 4.19 after nine starts and six relief appearances covering 68.2 innings. He started the year in the rotation but was subsequently demoted to the pen after four rough starts in his first five outings. A string of solid, long relief outings earned him another shot in the rotation and the results have been promising. Since being reinserted into the rotation, Carroll’s groundball rate is off the charts at 62% over his last four starts. His line-drive rate of 16% over that same span reveals that weak contact is being made off him. Carroll has allowed no runs in 11.2 innings over his last two starts and while the sample size is small and the risk is still present, Carroll and the South Side should not be a pooch at home to Bruce Chen and the ice-cold Royals.
K.C. has dropped four in a row and seven of eight. Chen is taking the place of the injured Jason Vargas and that’s the only reason he’s being handed the ball. After struggling in four April starts, Chen missed more than two months with a back injury. He threw four rehab starts, where he had a horrific 8.22 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in 15 IP. Chen has a 6.46 ERA at this level and has only made one MLB start since April. Age (37), fly-ball%, and xERA history all warn of significant downside and in no way can this stiff be trusted as the chalk.
Miami +170 over ATLANTA
After undergoing urethra surgery and then injuring his shoulder as he tried to ramp up for spring training, Mike Minor has been uninspiring in his first 14 starts this season. Minor has always been a fly-ball pitcher. He continually finishes near the top of the league in fly ball percentage, which leads to a good deal of home runs allowed and Minor has certainly fit the bill in that respect. He’s already been tagged for 14 jacks in just 83 innings. Overall, Minor has a BAA of .295, an ugly WHIP of 1.46 and an ERA of 4.86, which isn’t far off his xERA of 4.77. At home, Minor has been just as bad with a 1-4 record and an ERA of 4.76. Minor has a good history and there is a chance of a turnaround but we wouldn’t be looking to spot -180 or thereabouts to find out. Injuries take a toll and some pitchers never recover. Minor could be one of those guys.
Jacob Turner could be one of the sneakiest, good plays of the year. He’s appeared in just 17 games this season with nine of those coming as a starter. His ERA is 6.22 and that’s why he’s being offered such a big tag here but we would not put much emphasis on that ERA. He was moved to the pen to work some things out and it may have paid off. He’s always had nasty stuff so now would be the time to buy low. Turner is another post-hype prospect who has made significant gains recently as a reliever. His skills out of the Miami bullpen: 8.0 K’s/9, 1.7 BB/9, 56% groundball rate. As a groundball pitcher with a 10% swinging strike rate lurking behind his poor surface stats, Turner has the goods to deliver significant profits in the second half. Turner is still very young (23), with a 1st-round pedigree and he also has many gems under his belt in his 42 career starts. He’s been moved back to the rotation and has a chance to absolutely thrive here against a lineup that can be made to look silly from time to time. Definite overlay.
N.Y. Mets +105 over SEATTLE
Erasmo Ramirez continues to mix his swing-and-miss stuff with being too hittable. Batters have been able to square up his fastball when he doesn't locate it in the strike zone effectively, as shown by the 10 HR’s he has allowed in 53 IP innings. Ramirez has just four pure quality starts in 11 attempts. He has just one win on the year in those 11 starts and in his last start he walked five batters in four innings before given the hook. Ramirez is a huge risk. His 4.58 ERA, 4.97 xERA and 1.58 WHIP confirm that. Ramirez has spent the last month at Triple-A Tacoma where he didn’t fare much better with a 0-1 record, a 4.12 ERA and 4.81 xERA over four starts. The timing of this call-up suggests that the M’s may have made this move in hopes of attracting some buyers at the trade deadline but we’re not going to be one of them.
Max Scherzer, David Price, Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg, and Chris Sale are all strikeout artists that have thrived in that department all season and especially so over the past month. Jacob deGrom takes a back seat to none of them. deGrom has put it all together recently, as over his last three starts, he has a 27/4 K/BB in 19 innings to go along with an outstanding 17% swinging strike rate. That 17% swing and miss rate is the highest of any pitcher in the majors in July. deGrom has 38 K’s and a 1.65 ERA over his last five starts covering 33 innings. At home, the Mariners average only 3½ runs per game while having a .235 BA and .657 OPS. Taking back a tag, the Mets with deGrom starting are a far better option than Seattle spotting a price with Ramirez starting.