Five to Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday, June 17, 2014 Opening Line Report
Rest in peace Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn. The greatest contact hitter I ever saw and Mr. Padre passed away at the way-too-young age of 54 on Monday from a battle with salivary gland cancer. He caught the disease because he often used chewing tobacco, so hopefully that’s a lesson to others. Gwynn won eight NL batting titles, and I really thought he would hit .400 in 1994. He may have had the players not cut the season short due to a strike. It’s still the highest single-season average since Ted Williams batted .406 in 1941. I’m sure parks all around baseball will be having a moment of silence for Gwynn this week. The Padres return home Wednesday. Here’s a look at five interesting matchups on the schedule Tuesday.
Giants-White Sox (+108, 8.5)
San Francisco thinks it will have both catcher Buster Posey and outfielder Angel Pagan for this game. Posey was lifted from Sunday’s game after a hard foul tip of his mask. He passed a concussion test. Because the Giants have the DH for this series it wouldn’t surprise me to see him there. Pagan was a late scratch Sunday with a back issue. Matt Cain gets the call for the Giants. Cain (1-4, 3.84) lasted only five innings last time out, allowing four runs in a loss to Washington. Not many White Sox have faced him. Adam Dunn is 6-for-20 with two home runs. Lefty John Danks goes for the Pale Hose. Danks (5-5, 4.17) has been tremendous over his past four starts with a 1.55 ERA.
Key trends: The Giants have won seven straight interleague games. Chicago is 1-7 in its past eight interleague games against righty starters. The “under” is 6-0 in San Francisco’s past six interleague road games.
Early lean: Danks finally looks like he did before Tommy John surgery, so he’s the pick.
Astros-Nationals (-125, 7)
Every time I think Washington is going to run away with the NL East, the Nats go on a slide. They enter this one having lost four straight, but those were all away from home. Tanner Roark looks to get things turned around in Tuesday’s series opener. Roark (5-4, 2.92) has won two straight starts, allowing just two runs and 10 hits over 14 innings. He has never faced Houston. The Astros counter with their ace Dallas Keuchel (8-3, 2.38). The lefty also has won two straight, allowing just a run and nine hits over 14 innings. Only a few Nationals have faced him. Ryan Zimmermann is 2-for-3 with two RBIs off him.
Key trends: The Astros have won their past six on the road when Keuchel starts. Washington is 9-2 in its past 11 after an off day. The Nats are 10-1 in the past 11 meetings.
Early lean: “Under” at -110.
Blue Jays at Yankees (-166, 8)
OK, finally, New York’s Masahiro Tanaka will face a good offense for the second time. It hasn’t happened yet this season because I don’t consider the Cubs a good offense. Tanaka (10-1, 2.02) has been brilliant overall. He made his big-league debut on April 4 in Toronto, allowing three runs (tied for his second-most) and six hits over seven innings. Melky Cabrera homered off him. Marcus Stroman starts for Toronto. Stroman (3-1, 5.18) has yet to face the Yankees. He has had a quality start in all three of his big-league starts.
Key trends: The Jays have won eight of their past 10 series openers. The “under” has hit in eight of Toronto’s nine against a righty starter. The “under” is 5-1 in Tanaka’s past six.
Early lean: I think the Jays beat Tanaka. The Yankees also don’t know Stroman.
Rangers at A’s (-102, 7)
This had been the lowest total on the board, opening at six, before late movement up. No surprise it opened at six considering that Yu Darvish is pitching for the Rangers. Darvish (7-2, 2.11) has won four straight starts, allowing a combined six runs while striking out 36. He has struggled against the A’s, going 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts. Coco Crisp (.368, one HR, seven RBIs) and Brandon Moss (.350, four HRs, six RBIs) hit him well. It’s lefty Tommy Milone (4-3, 3.47) for Oakland. The A’s have won his past five outings. He faced Texas in April and allowed three runs over six innings. Adrian Beltre is a career .412 hitter with two homers off him.
Key trends: The Rangers have lost seven straight Tuesday games. But they are 6-0 Darvish’s past six on the road. Texas is 1-7 in Darvish’s past eight against Oakland.
Early lean: It appears the A’s have Darvish’s number, but he’s too good of value at only -108 to pass up.
Rockies at Dodgers (-180, 7)
With so many injuries, I was ready to bury the Rockies before they went into San Francisco and swept three games this weekend. However, they are the biggest dogs on the board Tuesday against the Dodgers’ Zack Greinke (8-3, 2.65). He had one of his worst outings of the year on June 7 in Colorado, giving up four runs and a season-high 11 hits over seven innings. Carlos Gonzalez hits him well, but he’s one of those Rockies on the DL. It’s Jhoulys Chacin (1-4, 4.53) for the Rockies. He blanked the Braves on two hits over seven innings last Thursday for his fist win. He also pitched June 7 against L.A., allowing three runs over six innings. Andre Ethier is 12-for-29 career with a homer and 10 walks off Chacin.
Key trends: Colorado is 1-7 in Chacin’s past eight Game 2s of a series. The Dodgers are 17-4 in Greinke’s past 21 at home. The Rockies are 4-1 in Chacin’s past five in L.A.
Early lean: Take L.A. at +110 on the runline. Forget that past Greinke start against the Rockies. Coors Field will do that to even the best.
Rest in peace Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn. The greatest contact hitter I ever saw and Mr. Padre passed away at the way-too-young age of 54 on Monday from a battle with salivary gland cancer. He caught the disease because he often used chewing tobacco, so hopefully that’s a lesson to others. Gwynn won eight NL batting titles, and I really thought he would hit .400 in 1994. He may have had the players not cut the season short due to a strike. It’s still the highest single-season average since Ted Williams batted .406 in 1941. I’m sure parks all around baseball will be having a moment of silence for Gwynn this week. The Padres return home Wednesday. Here’s a look at five interesting matchups on the schedule Tuesday.
Giants-White Sox (+108, 8.5)
San Francisco thinks it will have both catcher Buster Posey and outfielder Angel Pagan for this game. Posey was lifted from Sunday’s game after a hard foul tip of his mask. He passed a concussion test. Because the Giants have the DH for this series it wouldn’t surprise me to see him there. Pagan was a late scratch Sunday with a back issue. Matt Cain gets the call for the Giants. Cain (1-4, 3.84) lasted only five innings last time out, allowing four runs in a loss to Washington. Not many White Sox have faced him. Adam Dunn is 6-for-20 with two home runs. Lefty John Danks goes for the Pale Hose. Danks (5-5, 4.17) has been tremendous over his past four starts with a 1.55 ERA.
Key trends: The Giants have won seven straight interleague games. Chicago is 1-7 in its past eight interleague games against righty starters. The “under” is 6-0 in San Francisco’s past six interleague road games.
Early lean: Danks finally looks like he did before Tommy John surgery, so he’s the pick.
Astros-Nationals (-125, 7)
Every time I think Washington is going to run away with the NL East, the Nats go on a slide. They enter this one having lost four straight, but those were all away from home. Tanner Roark looks to get things turned around in Tuesday’s series opener. Roark (5-4, 2.92) has won two straight starts, allowing just two runs and 10 hits over 14 innings. He has never faced Houston. The Astros counter with their ace Dallas Keuchel (8-3, 2.38). The lefty also has won two straight, allowing just a run and nine hits over 14 innings. Only a few Nationals have faced him. Ryan Zimmermann is 2-for-3 with two RBIs off him.
Key trends: The Astros have won their past six on the road when Keuchel starts. Washington is 9-2 in its past 11 after an off day. The Nats are 10-1 in the past 11 meetings.
Early lean: “Under” at -110.
Blue Jays at Yankees (-166, 8)
OK, finally, New York’s Masahiro Tanaka will face a good offense for the second time. It hasn’t happened yet this season because I don’t consider the Cubs a good offense. Tanaka (10-1, 2.02) has been brilliant overall. He made his big-league debut on April 4 in Toronto, allowing three runs (tied for his second-most) and six hits over seven innings. Melky Cabrera homered off him. Marcus Stroman starts for Toronto. Stroman (3-1, 5.18) has yet to face the Yankees. He has had a quality start in all three of his big-league starts.
Key trends: The Jays have won eight of their past 10 series openers. The “under” has hit in eight of Toronto’s nine against a righty starter. The “under” is 5-1 in Tanaka’s past six.
Early lean: I think the Jays beat Tanaka. The Yankees also don’t know Stroman.
Rangers at A’s (-102, 7)
This had been the lowest total on the board, opening at six, before late movement up. No surprise it opened at six considering that Yu Darvish is pitching for the Rangers. Darvish (7-2, 2.11) has won four straight starts, allowing a combined six runs while striking out 36. He has struggled against the A’s, going 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts. Coco Crisp (.368, one HR, seven RBIs) and Brandon Moss (.350, four HRs, six RBIs) hit him well. It’s lefty Tommy Milone (4-3, 3.47) for Oakland. The A’s have won his past five outings. He faced Texas in April and allowed three runs over six innings. Adrian Beltre is a career .412 hitter with two homers off him.
Key trends: The Rangers have lost seven straight Tuesday games. But they are 6-0 Darvish’s past six on the road. Texas is 1-7 in Darvish’s past eight against Oakland.
Early lean: It appears the A’s have Darvish’s number, but he’s too good of value at only -108 to pass up.
Rockies at Dodgers (-180, 7)
With so many injuries, I was ready to bury the Rockies before they went into San Francisco and swept three games this weekend. However, they are the biggest dogs on the board Tuesday against the Dodgers’ Zack Greinke (8-3, 2.65). He had one of his worst outings of the year on June 7 in Colorado, giving up four runs and a season-high 11 hits over seven innings. Carlos Gonzalez hits him well, but he’s one of those Rockies on the DL. It’s Jhoulys Chacin (1-4, 4.53) for the Rockies. He blanked the Braves on two hits over seven innings last Thursday for his fist win. He also pitched June 7 against L.A., allowing three runs over six innings. Andre Ethier is 12-for-29 career with a homer and 10 walks off Chacin.
Key trends: Colorado is 1-7 in Chacin’s past eight Game 2s of a series. The Dodgers are 17-4 in Greinke’s past 21 at home. The Rockies are 4-1 in Chacin’s past five in L.A.
Early lean: Take L.A. at +110 on the runline. Forget that past Greinke start against the Rockies. Coors Field will do that to even the best.
BOB BALFE
SELECTION:
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -115
(Lohse/Miley)
The Brewers are a better baseball from top to bottom. They have the better hitting team which is great against left handers, the better starting pitcher and the better bullpen. At pretty much even money I like our chances to win the game tonight. Take Milwaukee.
SELECTION:
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -115
(Lohse/Miley)
The Brewers are a better baseball from top to bottom. They have the better hitting team which is great against left handers, the better starting pitcher and the better bullpen. At pretty much even money I like our chances to win the game tonight. Take Milwaukee.
XpertPicks
TUESDAY BASEBALL
Jeff Samadzija has lost 30 of the last 43 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he has lost 24 of the last 39 road games. Jeff Samadzija has lost 28 of the last 46 games when pitching in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season and he has lost two of the last three games with an ERA of 7.87.
Phil Hughes has won 8 of the last 10 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher and he has won 7 of the last 9 games coming off a team loss. Phil Hughes has won 8 of the last 11 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is 5-0 in road games this season with an ERA of 2.02.
TUESDAY BASEBALL
- Play Miami +100 over Chicago Cubs----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
7:00 PM EST
Jeff Samadzija has lost 30 of the last 43 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he has lost 24 of the last 39 road games. Jeff Samadzija has lost 28 of the last 46 games when pitching in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season and he has lost two of the last three games with an ERA of 7.87.
- Play Minnesota +150 over Boston----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
7:15 PM EST
Phil Hughes has won 8 of the last 10 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 or higher and he has won 7 of the last 9 games coming off a team loss. Phil Hughes has won 8 of the last 11 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is 5-0 in road games this season with an ERA of 2.02.
Kevin's Pick(s):
2 UNIT = Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians - INDIANS TO WIN (-110)
Listed Pitchers: Shoemaker vs Tomlin
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)
The Indians beat Weaver and the Angels 4-3 last night in the series opener to get their first win vs the Angels of the year. Cleveland has now won 3 straight games , while the Angels have lost 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 games. The Angels will send Matt Shoemaker to the mound and he is 3-1 with a 4.19 ERA, .254 OBA and 1.22 WHIP on the year. The Indians will have him facing a lot of lefties tonight and lefties are hitting .316 against him (comapred to righties at .164). Cleveland will go with Josh Tomlin on the mound who is 4-3 with a solid 3.33 ERA, .236 OBA and 1.07 WHIP. At home he is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA, 1.90 OBA and 0.89 WHIP. The Indians are 12-5 in their last 17 games overall, 9-2 in their last 11 games following a win and 8-0 in their last 8 home games vs a right handed starter. They are also 19-9 in Tomlin's last 28 home starts and 16-5 in his last 21 starts as a home favorite. Los Angeles is just 2-8 in their last 10 road games and 0-5 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. I'm taking Cleveland here at home to win their 4th straight game.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals - UNDER 7 RUNS (+102)
Listed Pitchers: Keuchel vs. Roark
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.04 units)
After a quick 5-0 lead for the Mariners, the offenses got cool in a hurry, as it wasn't until the top of the 9th where the Padres made it 5-1 for the next run. It wasn't easy, but the bet gets cashed. I locked my bet in at +122 yesterday as the price continued to rise, but it will stay at -107 since I sent it out as such.
Dallas Keuchel is one of the best kept secrets in baseball. After his dominating performance against the Tigers about a month ago I began to take notice. Since that start Keuchel has rolled right along putting together excellent performances. He shut the Tigers down at home, and has actually shut every team he's faced on the road down. His ERA away from home is 1.42, matched with a perfect 6-0 record. Additionally, Keuchel has an OBP of .223 and a .083 WHIP. His last three starts have been stellar as well, posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. In his last two he's only allowed 1 run and 9 hits. There are several young standouts on the Astros that they can build their future on, Keuchel is one of them. He'll be up against another new found standout on the Nationals, Tanner Roark. Roark made only 5 starts last season, but he made well on all of them, completing 2013 with a 1.51 ERA. It has carried over to this season, where Roark owns an ERA of 2.92 over 83.1 innings pitched. He also favors pitching at home in Washington. His numbers at home include a 1.55 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and .275 OBP. Like Keuchel, Roark has been hot as well recently. He's only allowed 10 hits in his last two starts. His ERA stands at 1.29 over his past three with a 0.90 WHIP and .235 OBP. Look for the pitchers to take command of this game. A game that should
2 UNIT = Los Angeles Angels @ Cleveland Indians - INDIANS TO WIN (-110)
Listed Pitchers: Shoemaker vs Tomlin
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)
The Indians beat Weaver and the Angels 4-3 last night in the series opener to get their first win vs the Angels of the year. Cleveland has now won 3 straight games , while the Angels have lost 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 games. The Angels will send Matt Shoemaker to the mound and he is 3-1 with a 4.19 ERA, .254 OBA and 1.22 WHIP on the year. The Indians will have him facing a lot of lefties tonight and lefties are hitting .316 against him (comapred to righties at .164). Cleveland will go with Josh Tomlin on the mound who is 4-3 with a solid 3.33 ERA, .236 OBA and 1.07 WHIP. At home he is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA, 1.90 OBA and 0.89 WHIP. The Indians are 12-5 in their last 17 games overall, 9-2 in their last 11 games following a win and 8-0 in their last 8 home games vs a right handed starter. They are also 19-9 in Tomlin's last 28 home starts and 16-5 in his last 21 starts as a home favorite. Los Angeles is just 2-8 in their last 10 road games and 0-5 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. I'm taking Cleveland here at home to win their 4th straight game.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Houston Astros @ Washington Nationals - UNDER 7 RUNS (+102)
Listed Pitchers: Keuchel vs. Roark
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.04 units)
After a quick 5-0 lead for the Mariners, the offenses got cool in a hurry, as it wasn't until the top of the 9th where the Padres made it 5-1 for the next run. It wasn't easy, but the bet gets cashed. I locked my bet in at +122 yesterday as the price continued to rise, but it will stay at -107 since I sent it out as such.
Dallas Keuchel is one of the best kept secrets in baseball. After his dominating performance against the Tigers about a month ago I began to take notice. Since that start Keuchel has rolled right along putting together excellent performances. He shut the Tigers down at home, and has actually shut every team he's faced on the road down. His ERA away from home is 1.42, matched with a perfect 6-0 record. Additionally, Keuchel has an OBP of .223 and a .083 WHIP. His last three starts have been stellar as well, posting a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. In his last two he's only allowed 1 run and 9 hits. There are several young standouts on the Astros that they can build their future on, Keuchel is one of them. He'll be up against another new found standout on the Nationals, Tanner Roark. Roark made only 5 starts last season, but he made well on all of them, completing 2013 with a 1.51 ERA. It has carried over to this season, where Roark owns an ERA of 2.92 over 83.1 innings pitched. He also favors pitching at home in Washington. His numbers at home include a 1.55 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and .275 OBP. Like Keuchel, Roark has been hot as well recently. He's only allowed 10 hits in his last two starts. His ERA stands at 1.29 over his past three with a 0.90 WHIP and .235 OBP. Look for the pitchers to take command of this game. A game that should
BeatYourBookie
TUESDAY
MLB BASEBALL
10* Play Miami +100 over Chicago Cubs (MLB TOP PLAY)
Chicago is 36-69 when the total posted is 7 runs or less the last three seasons
Chicago is 18-39 when playing on a Tuesday the last three seasons
Chicago is 14-25 in road games this season
10* Play San Diego +130 over Seattle (MLB TOP PLAY)
Seattle is 52-65 in home games the last two seasons
Seattle is 15-29 after allowing one run or less in their last game
Seattle is 5-13 when playing on a Tuesday this season
=============================================
5* Play Minnesota +150 over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Arizona +100 over Milwaukee (MLB BONUS PLAY)
TUESDAY
MLB BASEBALL
10* Play Miami +100 over Chicago Cubs (MLB TOP PLAY)
Chicago is 36-69 when the total posted is 7 runs or less the last three seasons
Chicago is 18-39 when playing on a Tuesday the last three seasons
Chicago is 14-25 in road games this season
10* Play San Diego +130 over Seattle (MLB TOP PLAY)
Seattle is 52-65 in home games the last two seasons
Seattle is 15-29 after allowing one run or less in their last game
Seattle is 5-13 when playing on a Tuesday this season
=============================================
5* Play Minnesota +150 over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Arizona +100 over Milwaukee (MLB BONUS PLAY)
FantasySportsGametime
MLB Baseball
1000* Play LA Dodgers -180 over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY)
Jhoulys Chacin has lost 7 of the last 8 games when pitching as an underdog of +150 or higher and he has lost 14 of the last 22 games when pitching on a Tuesday.Jhoulys Chacin has lost 34 of the last 57 road games and he has lost 17 of the last 24 road games.
=====================================================
50* Play Atlanta -150 over Philadelphia (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play St Louis -150 over New York Mets (MLB BONUS PLAY)
MLB Baseball
1000* Play LA Dodgers -180 over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY)
Jhoulys Chacin has lost 7 of the last 8 games when pitching as an underdog of +150 or higher and he has lost 14 of the last 22 games when pitching on a Tuesday.Jhoulys Chacin has lost 34 of the last 57 road games and he has lost 17 of the last 24 road games.
=====================================================
50* Play Atlanta -150 over Philadelphia (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play St Louis -150 over New York Mets (MLB BONUS PLAY)
