Service Plays Tuesday 4/27/10

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Savannah Sports

Professional Plays
Eric Degarde

Todays Selections

MLB Baseball

1 (*) Atlanta +165

1 (*) Washington +142

NBA Basketball

1 (*) LA Lakers -6.5
 

ugk

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THE SHARK

MLB
2 more to add to our tearing rising win total
MILWAUKEE -1.5 RL
HOUSTON -129 ML

NBA
Big Three Sweep Today

Cleveland Cavs -12 wraps it up in style, points no object lay -12

LA Lakers game, some battle so we go with the total ,
take the OVER 193.5

Boston Celtics -6 finally plays for real at home lay the -6
 
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BOSTON BLACKIE

Miami +6.5

The Boston Celtics take their second stab at sending the Miami Heat packing.
We feel not tonight.

With Miami facing elimination on Sunday, Dwyane Wade went off for a franchise playoff record 46 points to lead the Heat to a 101-92 victory over the Celtics.
You guard Dwyane Wade too closely and he drives to the basket.
Give him some room and he sinks a 3-pointer.
A win by Miami would send the series back there for a sixth game on Thursday night.
Anti Public Side
 
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HEAVY HITTER TEAM

NBA SHARP MONEY
<<>>

Chicago vs. Cleveland 8:00 EST
Cleveland -12
Any chance the Bulls had in extending this series can on Sunday when they were blown out at home in a 121-98 laughter by the Cavs. This is a rather large impost, but we feel confident that after watching Sunday's demolition, Cleveland will come out at home and put the exclamation point on this series game. Chicago's will has been broken, and Cleveland will roll to a win and cover. Tonight is close-out time, as the Cavs know that Orlando has already advanced, and Boston is likely to advance tonight at home against Miami
 
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THE PRO SOURCE
NBA Playoffs

Boston - 6
Round One Game 5 HOME favorites in this spread range
who have a 3-1 LEAD in their series are 10-3 since 1999.
Mia 3-18-1 ATS away if .610 or less

Lakers OVER 193 ** TOP PLAY **
Playoff teams at this point of Round 1 are 18-2-1 OVER
off scoring 100 + pts in back to back games since 1991,
including 9-1 OVER away with this posted total and 5-0
OVER as road teams in this spread range.
Teams after winning at home and scoring 110(+) (thunder)
go over in their next game at a 70% clip when the total is
in this range. 39-14-2 , 74%
Teams that were up by 10(+) at halftime of their last game,
won by 20(+) pts & scored 100(+) pts, go over at a 65% rate.

Lakers - money line - OPINION ONLY
Lakers 22-2 SU at home in Gm 5's when the series is tied.
Play ON #1 seeded teams at Home when the series is tied
40-7 SU
Play On teams with the Lakers WL% who are off back-to-
back playoff losses and are playing a sub .700 opponent.
are 71-33 SU since 1990.
Also, since '03, No. 1 seeds at home in the first round are
44-3 SU and 29-16- 2 ATS
Round One Gm 5 HOME teams off a double digit SU loss
and ATS loss 10-3 ATS coming off a Non-Division game
and playing with 2 or more days rest.
PLAY AGAINST any team in the Playoffs who won their
previous playoff game by 20(+) pts, If this is the first round
of the playoffs - 54-29 ats ...14-6 lst 5 ys
Dating back to the 1990-91 season, playoff teams coming
off a pair of momentum-building SU and ATS post season
wins, the last being a win of 14(+) pts, 48-86 ATS.
 
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Champion Sports

NBA SINGLE STRONGEST TONIGHT
$$$ TOP SIDE $$$

Miami vs. Boston 7:00 EST
Celtics -6
Boston returns home with a commanding 3-1 lead on Miami. Scoring on the road has been a problem for Miami against good teams. The Celtics are a top five defensive team. They are going to lock up on D. Wade, and the Heat don't have enough other scoring options to counter
 
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WIN OR LOSE SPORTS BETTING

MLB
901 LAD G2 ML +100 $10
906 CUBS ML -152 $11
908 HOU ML -131 $7
911 ATL +1.5 -130 $7
911 ATL ML +165 $5
914 COLO ML -195 $17
915 PHIL ML -133 $7
919 MINN ML +105 $15
919 MINN ML -104 $11
921 NYY ML -165 $7
926 TEX ML -129 $12
928 KC ML -175 $6
928 Sea /KC UN 7.5 -120 $6
930 LAA ML -157 $7

NHL
14 PHOX ML +105 $12

NBA
529 CHI +12.5 -105 $13
531 MIA +6 -101 $7
535 Okla City +6 +100 $6
 
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Prediction Machine

Key
65%+ 3X Normal Play
62% - 65% 2X Normal Play
57% - 62% Normal Play
53% - 57% Weak Play (but playable)
< 53% No Pick

3 Normal plays
San Ant+4.5
LA Lakers-5.5
Cleve Under 199.5

Against the Spread Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference ATS Pick Opponent Line Margin Win% ATS
West San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks 4.5 (3.5) 57.3% Calc -->
West Los Angeles Lakers Oklahoma City Thunder (5.5) 8.1 57.2% Calc -->
East Miami Heat Boston Celtics 6.5 (4.5) 55.1% Calc -->
East Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers 12.0 (11.1) 52.2% Calc -->


Straight-Up Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference Favorite Underdog Points For Points Against Win% SU
East Cleveland Cavaliers Chicago Bulls 101.2 90.1 64.7%
West Los Angeles Lakers Oklahoma City Thunder 99.3 91.2 60.8%
East Boston Celtics Miami Heat 94.0 89.6 56.3%
West Dallas Mavericks San Antonio Spurs 98.6 97.1 50.5%


Over/Under Picks (based on game played 50,000 times):
Conference Better Seed Worse Seed Line Total Points Pick Pick%
East Cleveland Cavaliers Chicago Bulls 199.5 191.3 UNDER 57.0% Calc -->
East Boston Celtics Miami Heat 188.5 183.6 UNDER 55.3% Calc -->
West Los Angeles Lakers Oklahoma City Thunder 193.5 190.5 UNDER 55.1% Calc -->
West Dallas Mavericks San Antonio Spurs 192.5 195.7 OVER 54.5% Calc -->
 

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jeff benton tuesday

0-1 yesterday for -25 Dimes. his last three days awful...overall, since i started posting 27-29-2 +10 Dimes.

Tuesday's Action 15 DIME: CAVALIERS in the FIRST-HALF ONLY vs. Bulls ... NOTE: This is play on the Cavaliers minus the points in the first half. The first-half line is a solid -7 across the board.


5 DIME: BREWERS (-1 1/2 runs vs. Pirates) ... NOTE: Randy Wolf MUST start this game for Milwaukee or this play is VOID! Also, even though there's some doubt as to who will start for the Pirates, I want you to stick with the play regardless who they put on the mound.


Cavaliers (First-Half ONLY!)

Once again, the play here is on the Cavaliers to cover the spread (about 7 points) in the first half ONLY.

If you put a gun to my head, I’d say Cleveland is going to win this game in a rout and cover the hefty double-digit number. But I’m not 100 percent (or even 60 percent) confident that’s going to happen because there’s just no way of knowing when Cavs coach Mike Brown will lift his starters with a big lead. Also, the Bulls for the most part have shown a lot of heart in this series (especially in the first two games in Cleveland), and I don’t think they’ll mail it in down 15-plus in the final quarter.

Besides that, to lay 12 points or so for the game and even feel remotely comfortable that you’ve got a winning ticket in your hand, the Cavs will have to be up by about 20 at the two-minute mark. Can that happen? Sure it can. Will it happen? I have no idea and I’m not willing to gamble on it.

That said, what I am certain of is this: The Cavs will come out of the gate like a team possessed, and LeBron James (of course) will be the one leading that charge. This one reminds me of Mike Tyson in his prime, when Iron Mike would bull-rush his opponent at the opening bell and start throwing haymakers and more times than not, the opponent wouldn’t be able to survive the onslaught and the fight would be over in a round or two. Think of Cleveland in the role of Tyson and Chicago in the role of overmatched opponent.

After all, the last thing the Cavs want is the Bulls to think they have a shot to win this game, and the only way to crush their spirit is with a big first half – as was the case in Game 1, when Cleveland raced out to a 32-18 first-quarter lead and led by 15 at the break. All Brown has to do to motivate his team is show them tape of that Game 1 first half, and then immediately replace that tape with one from Game 2, when the Cavs had a six-point first-quarter lead, relaxed in the second quarter, allowed the Bulls to pull within two by halftime and then needed a furious fourth quarter to put Chicago away. That’s really all it will take to get the Cavs’ attention and get them in the proper mindset to flex their muscles and bully the Bulls like they know they can.

Look for Cleveland to not only cover this first-half number, but to have the overall spread covered by the time the horn sounds to end the second quarter. Whether they keep up that same killer instinct for a full 48 minutes and win this one by 13 or more, I have no idea – and frankly, I don’t care. Just as long as they’re up big at halftime (and they will be), that’s all that matters.


Brewers (-1½ runs)

Tough to argue with 22-0. That’s the Brewers record against the Pirates in the last 22 meetings in Milwaukee.

Also tough to argue with 53-4. That’s the combined score by which the Brewers have defeated the Pirates in the last four meetings, all since last Tuesday. That includes a 20-0 loss in the series-finale in Pittsburgh on Thursday, followed by last night’s 17-3 disaster.

Finally, tough to argue with 0-7 and 0-11. The former is the Pirates record in their last seven games overall (and they’ve been outscored 72-12 – a 60-run differential – during the losing streak). The latter is Pittsburgh’s record the last 11 times they’ve been matched up against Randy Wolf, tonight’s starter for the Brewers. Those 11 games in which Wolf has dominated Pittsburgh span nine years and four different teams!

Wolf’s was on the mound Thursday in Pittsburgh when Milwaukee hammered out that 20-0 win, and the veteran lefty gave up just six hits in six innings. Then again, a left-handed pitcher carving up the Pirates isn’t exactly unique. Pittsburgh is batting a pathetic .210 overall against left-handers, including .182 in 10 road games.

You want some more scary numbers? The Pirates’ team ERA now stands at a ridiculous 7.74, including 8.72 by the team’s starters. On the road, those numbers jumped to 9.00 overall and 11.01 from the starters – mindboggling!

It’s not known for sure whom Pittsburgh will hand the ball to tonight – could be Brian Burres, who was just called up from Triple-A last week, or it could be Jeff Karstens, who has a 7.31 ERA in Triple-A, but the Bucs are so desperate for an arm they may call him up. Doesn’t really matter, though, because after seven straight losses overall, 22 straight losses in Milwaukee and four straight losses to the Brewers in the last week by 49 runs, the Pirates will be defeated before they even take the field.
 
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KENT ELOLA

TUESDAY NBA PLAYOFFS
1000 units on Bulls +13 over Cavs
1000 units on Spurs-Mavs UNDER 193
1000 units on Lakers-Thunder UNDER 194.5

TUESDAY BASEBALL
1000/1040 on Rockies -1.5 RUNLINE over D'Backs (Jimenez-Jackson) +104
1070/1000 on Phillies-Giants OVER 9.5 (Moyer-Wellemeyer) -107
1000/1000 on Jays over Red Sox +100
1000/1620 on A's over Rays +162
1000/1360 on White Sox over Rangers +136

TUESDAY NHL PLAYOFFS
1000/1150 on Red Wings-Coyotes UNDER 5 +115
 

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