VegasButcher - MLB
Chicago Cubs -145
Arrieta, my 5th ranked starting pitcher last season, is still underpriced at home. Anthony DeSclafani has a 5.8 career ERA (39.0 innings), a K/9 rate of 6.8, 1.5 HR/9 rate, and 4.5/4.2 FIP/xFIP. Throw in a mediocre 35% GB-rate and a 23% LD-rate and you have a pretty mediocre pitcher on the mound opposite Arrieta. Arrieta dominated the Reds at home last year allowing 2 ER’s in 16 innings of work with 22K’s and only 1 BB. I like his chances for another strong outing and a win tonight.
Detroit Tigers +108
Fading old-man Burnett here against one of the better lineups in the league. Opposite him is Shane Greene, who is facing the Pirates for the first time in his career. Greene has had a dominant year last season with a 24% K-rate, 50% GB-rate, and 3.4 SIERA, 37th best mark in the league. He does tend to struggle against ‘lefties’ with a 1.7 K/BB rate, 15% K-rate, and 4.3/4.3 FIP/xFIP against them. Pirates have 3 of them in the lineup today: Polanco, Walker, and Alvarez. Polanco is still figuring out how to play in the majors and Alvarez is a below average hitter. Walker of course is a ‘risk’ but hopefully Greene can work around him. What Greene lacks against lefties though he more than makes up for it against righties. Here are his numbers against right-handers in his career: 31% K-rate, 4.9 K/BB rate, 2.8/2.7 FIP/xFIP. These are absolutely elite numbers against right-handed hitters. As long as Greene is ‘on’ his game today, I expect a dominant performance out of him, as the Tigers should plate enough runs off Burnett to grab a win in this one.
