SPORTS ADVISORS
TUESDAY, MARCH 16
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
NCAA TOURNAMENT
(at Dayton, Ohio)
Winthrop (19-13, 2-2 ATS) vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (17-15, 1-4 ATS)
Winthrop scored consecutive upsets in the Big South tournament, capped by a 64-53 win over Coastal Carolina as a nine-point underdog in the championship game on March 6, to clinch their fifth Big Dance berth in the last six years. The Eagles had lost three of four to end the regular season in third place in the Big South standings, but they swept three games in the conference tourney, also knocking off Liberty (80-72, falling short as an 8½-point favorite) and Radford (61-46 as a 2½-point ‘dog).
Arkansas Pine-Bluff topped Texas-Southern 50-38 as a two-point favorite on Saturday to capture the Southwestern Athletic Conference championship and secure its first ever NCAA Tournament bid. The Golden Lions have won four in a row and 11 of their last 12, and their only two losses since mid-January came against Jackson State, which won the SWAC regular-season title.
This is the first meeting between these schools.
While the Golden Lions are in the Tournament for the first time in school history, Winthrop is making its ninth appearance, all since 1999. The Eagles are 1-8 SU all-time, the lone victory being a 74-64 first-round upset of Notre Dame as a 3½-point underdog in 2007.
In addition to going 2-1 ATS in their conference tournament, the Eagles played one other lined game this season, and that was a Bracket Buster contest at Eastern Kentucky, and they got hammered 77-57 as a 7½-point road ‘dog. That dropped Winthrop to 0-4-1 ATS in its last five lined non-conference contests, but otherwise it is on spread-covering surges of 11-3 at neutral sites, 12-5 as an underdog, 8-3 as a ‘dog of less than seven points and 8-3 when catching points at neutral venues.
Arkansas Pine-Bluff’s easy win and cover in the SWAC championship ended a 0-5 ATS slump. However, the Golden Lions are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU victory.
The favorite has won the last three “play-in” games, and after a 5-1 ATS run by the underdog in this event, the chalk has cashed in the last two.
Winthrop’s recent lined contests have been low-scoring affairs, as it is on “under” runs of 20-8 overall, 4-0 in NCAA Tournament games, 14-3 at neutral sites, 6-1 as an underdog and 7-1 as a neutral-site pup. Meanwhile, the Golden Lions stayed low in three of their last four lined games, including the last two in the SWAC tournament.
The winner of tonight’s game at Dayton Arena heads to Jacksonville, Fla., to face top-seeded Duke on Friday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WINTHROP and UNDER
NIT
N.C. State (19-15, 17-13-1 ATS) at South Florida (20-12, 19-10-2 ATS)
The Wolfpack made a valiant run to the ACC tournament semifinals last weekend, eventually falling to Georgia Tech 57-54 on Saturday, but cashing as a four-point underdog. N.C. State rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit and actually had a three-point lead late but couldn’t hang on. Still, the Wolfpack have rebounded from an 0-5 slump (1-4 ATS) to win five of their last seven, going 6-1 ATS including 4-0 ATS in the last four.
South Florida ended the regular season with three straight victories over Providence, DePaul and UConn, then got past DePaul again a week ago in the opening round of the Big East tournament (58-49 as a seven-point favorite). However, the Bulls’ Big Dance dreams ended the following day in an ugly 69-49 loss to Georgetown as a 6½-point underdog. The SU winner is 8-0-1 ATS in South Florida’s last nine games.
The Wolfpack are back in the postseason for the first time since 2007, when they won their first two games of the NIT before losing to West Virginia, finishing 2-0-1 ATS. South Florida’s last qualified for postseason play in 2002, losing an opening-round NIT game at Ball State.
The Bulls are 11-4 at home (8-4-2 ATS), while N.C. State has lost seven of 11 on the road, but it is 7-4 ATS. This is the first meeting between these schools.
N.C. State’s 4-0 ATS run overall is buoyed by pointspread streaks of 18-7-1 on the road, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-0 against winning teams. The Bulls are on ATS upticks of 3-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home, 9-3 in non-conference play, 4-1 against the ACC, 3-0-1 on Tuesday and 9-4 versus winning teams.
The Wolfpack are on “under” streaks of 5-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-0 after a SU defeat and 4-0 after a non-cover, while South Florida has stayed low in eight of 11 overall, four of five versus the ACC and four of five on Tuesday. However, the over is 4-1 in N.C. State’s last five against ACC competition and 6-2 in South Florida’s last eight at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH FLORIDA
Texas Tech (17-15, 15-11 ATS) vs. Seton Hall (19-12, 8-17 ATS)
Texas Tech ended a seven-game losing skid with an 82-67 rout of Colorado as a one-point underdog in Wednesday’s opening round of the Big 12 tournament. The Red Raiders then gave top-seeded and top-ranked Kansas a bit of a scare the next day, eventually coming up well in an 80-68 loss but easily covered as a 17½-point underdog. The back-to-back spread-covers came on the heels of a 2-5 ATS funk.
A 7-3 end-of-season hot streak wasn’t enough to get the Pirates invited to the big party. They ended regular-season play with a pair of double-digit road wins over Rutgers and Providence, then they matched up with Providence again a week ago today in the Big East tournament and nearly blew a 29-point second-half lead, holding on 109-106 as a 5½-point favorite. However, Seton Hall was no match for Notre Dame the following day, losing 68-56 as a 2½-point pup.
This is Texas Tech’s first postseason appearance since losing an opening-round NCAA Tournament game in 2007. Seton Hall hasn’t played this deep into March since losing a first-round Tournament game to Wichita State in 2006.
The Red Raiders, who have never faced Seton Hall, are 3-9 in true road games this year (5-6 ATS in lined action). The Pirates are 13-4 at the Prudential Center, but a woeful 3-9 ATS in lined contests.
Texas Tech has cashed in six of its last seven non-conference games, but it has failed to cover in 17 of 22 on Tuesday and is 0-4-1 ATS in the last five against Big East opponents. The Pirates are on pointspread slides of 6-16 overall, 0-6 at home, 1-4 versus winning teams and 2-5 after a non-cover.
The under is 4-1 in the Raiders’ last five against the Big East, 4-1-1 in Seton Hall’s last six non-conference tussles and 6-1 in Seton Hall’s last seven Tuesday outings. However, Tech is on “over” streaks of 22-8 on the highway, 12-3-1 in all non-league games, 23-11-2 after a SU defeat and 5-2 on Tuesday, while the Pirates have topped the total in four of five overall and four of five at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS TECH and OVER
William & Mary (22-10, 17-10-1 ATS) vs. North Carolina (16-16, 10-20 ATS)
William & Mary nearly punched its first-ever ticket to the NCAA Tournament, but came up short to Old Dominion in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament championship on March 8, losing 60-53 but cashing as a nine-point underdog. Although that defeat snapped a three-game losing skid for the Tribe, they still enter their first-ever postseason game having won seven of 10 both SU and ATS.
One year after winning their fifth NCAA title, the Tar Heels find themselves out of the Big Dance for the first time failing to qualify in both 2002 and 2003. North Carolina started the year strong, winning 10 of their first 13 games (with the three losses coming to Syracuse, Kentucky and Texas, three teams that spent time ranked No. 1 this season). Then injuries piled up, the Tar Heels suffered a stunning 82-79 overtime loss at Charleston, followed by an ugly ACC campaign that saw them go 5-12 SU and ATS.
After getting destroyed at Duke in the regular-season finale March 6 (82-50 as a 15-point road underdog), the Heels went one-and-one in the conference tournament for the first time ever, falling to Georgia Tech 62-56 as a 3½-point underdog Thursday. The last time UNC was in the NIT was 2003, when it went 2-1 SU and ATS, losing a third-round game to Georgetown at home.
These teams met in 2005 in Chapel Hill, N.C., and even though North Carolina rolled 105-66, the Tribe barely got inside the whopping 40½-point spread.
William & Mary was 12-7 (12-6 ATS) on the highway this year, including 10-6 in true road games (10-5 ATS).
The Tribe’s ATS hot streaks include 7-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 6-1 in non-conference play, 4-1 against the ACC and 10-4 after a SU defeat. North Carolina had one of the worst pointspread records in the country this season, ranking 224th out of 329 lined teams. And while the Heels have cashed in 43 of 61 non-conference games and four of five on Tuesday, they’re sill in pointspread funks of 5-14 overall, 2-5 at home, 2-6 after either a SU or ATS loss and 4-11 against winning teams.
William & Mary is riding “under” streaks of 16- overall, 11-1 on the highway, 5-1 after a SU defeat and 6-1 after a non-cover. Likewise, the Tar Heels are on “under” runs of 19-7 overall, 7-1 at home, 4-0 on Tuesday, 13-3 after a SU loss and 10-2 following an ATS setbacks.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Denver (45-21, 31-30-5 ATS) at Houston (33-31, 29-35 ATS)
The Nuggets take aim at their seventh straight win as they make a stop inside the Toyota Center for a matchup with the Rockets.
Denver is looking to wrap up a four-game road trip with a spotless record and it enters this one on a six-game winning streak (4-1-1 ATS) after going to Memphis and blowing out the Grizzlies 125-108 on Saturday, easily cashing as 1½-point favorites. They broke the game open by outscoring the Grizzlies 40-23 in the fourth quarter as J.R. Smith led the way with 30 points. Denver has averaged 115.4 points a game in its last five contests and shot 51.6 percent from the field.
Houston has won two straight (1-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 116-108 home win over the Nets, coming up just short as a 9½-point favorite. Luis Scola had the best game of his career, shooting 20-for-25 from the field for 44 points and 12 rebounds. The Rockets are looking for a third straight win, something they haven’t done since Dec. 22.
The Nuggets have won both matchups with Houston this season (2-0 ATS), including a 97-92 victory inside the Toyota Center back on Jan. 27, cashing as a 2½-point pup and making them 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head matchups overall.
Denver is on ATS slides of 1-5 on Mondays, 1-10 as a road chalk of less than five points and 3-11-4 after a spread-cover, but it is on positive ATS runs of 6-2-3 on the road, 3-0-1 overall and 39-19-3 against teams with a winning record. The Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a home ‘dog and 6-2 ATS in their last eight Monday games, but they are on ATS skids of 9-22 overall, 5-11 against the Western Conference, 3-14 at home and 3-13 after a straight-up win.
For the Nuggets, the under is 4-1 in the last five overall and 7-3 in their last 10 against Southwest Division teams, but otherwise they’re on “over” runs of 7-2 as a favorite, 15-7 against winning teams and 4-1 as a chalk of less than five points. Houston has topped the total in 10 of 12 after a straight-up win, but it is on “under” streaks of 6-2 on Mondays, 4-1 as a home ‘dog, 7-3 after a non-cover and 5-0 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
In this series, the “over” has cashed in four of the last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
NBA
San Antonio (39-25, 33-30-1 ATS) at Miami (35-32, 34-33 ATS)
Two teams riding three-game winning streaks hook up at American Airlines Arena in South Beach, where the Heat continue their playoff push when they host the Spurs.
San Antonio has been idle since Saturday’s 118-88 beat-down of the Clippers, easily covering as an 11½-point home favorite. In addition to winning their last three in a row, the Spurs are on a 7-1 SU surge, and they’ve cashed in a season-best seven consecutive games. During this eight-game push, San Antonio is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on the road, the only setback being a 97-95 loss at Cleveland eight days ago. Still, the Spurs remain a .500 team on the highway (15-15, 14-16 ATS).
Miami has won three in a row SU and ATS, all in double-digit fashion and all at home. The Heat pummeled the Clippers 108-97 on Tuesday, the Bulls 108-95 on Thursday and the 76ers 104-91 on Sunday. They’ve started off the month 6-1 SU, with all six victories coming in American Airlines Arena. Miami also has followed up an 0-4 ATS drought by going 5-1 ATS in the last six. For the season, Dwyane Wade and Co. are 20-14 in South Beach (17-17 ATS).
San Antonio swept the season series from the Heat last year, winning 91-84 in Miami as a 3½-point favorite and cruising 108-78 as a 7½-point home chalk. The Spurs have won seven of the last nine meetings, and their two spread-covers last year ended Miami’s 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.
In addition to cashing in seven straight games overall and four straight on the road, the Spurs are on ATS upticks of 9-1 against the Southeast Division and 5-1 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, Miami is on pointspread runs of 5-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 6-2 versus Western Conference woes, 4-0 against the Southwest Division, 4-0 after a day off, 5-1 following a double-digit win and 15-7-1 on Tuesday.
The under has cashed in six straight meetings between these squads and 17 of the last 19 overall. That includes an 8-1 “under” streak in Miami. On top of that, the Spurs are on “under” stretches of 5-1 overall, 14-6 on the road, 10-3-1 in Eastern Conference games, 36-16-2 versus the Southeast Division and 7-1 versus winning teams. Finally, Miami carries “under” trends of 14-2 against winning teams, 15-7 against the Southwest Division, 34-16-1 after a spread-cover and 5-1 on Tuesday.
Conversely, the Heat have topped the total in six straight home games and six of their last seven overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO and UNDER
