OC Dooley:2 UNIT” LATE NIGHT COLLEGE FOOTBALL INJURY INTANGIBLE SIDE (Maryland +14 versus Stanford in a 10:10 eastern late night kickoff on ESPN): The Foster Farms Bowl is being played just 11 miles from Stanford’s campus on the home turf of the NFL San Francisco 49ers. Thus even though both of tonight’s participants have identical overall records (7-5) it is the Cardinal who have been cast as a prohibitive two touchdown favorite. One of the keys to this selection has to do with POSITIVE injury news regarding Maryland’s #1 wide receiving option who actually has a shot at soon cashing NFL paychecks. Stefon Diggs has bene sidelined ever since suffering a lacerated kidney in a game played way back on the first day of November. To make a long story short Diggs (52 receptions and 5 touchdowns in just nine games played) says that he quote “feels fresh” which means that his Maryland teammates will ultimately benefit from an “extended” break which sees the team taking the field right near the New Years holiday. For those not aware this marked Maryland’s first campaign as a member of the Big 10 conference which also was the case for Rutgers who earlier in the postseason won OUTRIGHT as a substantial underdog versus an opponent (North Carolina) from a “power” conference. While late tonight is essentially an added “home” game for Stanford they have actually taken a large step “down” in prestige which brings to question their overall motivation. After winning consecutive Pac-12 Conference championships and the two separate Rose Bowl appearances that went with it, the Cardinal are taking a massive step “down” to a Bowl game being sponsored by Foster Farms. During the regular season among all Pac-12 alligned schools it was Stanford who had the LOWEST ranked offense (per game averages of below 26 points and 387 yards gained per game). Thus despite the geographic advantage I argue that Stanford should not be laying this many points
VegasButcher - NBA
Detroit Pistons -1
Pistons are 0-8 ATS as a ‘favorite’ this year but this is the first time they’re listed as such in the post-Josh Smith era. I know it’s been two games only, but since Smith was released by the team, Detroit is averaging 118 Off-Efficiency and 100 Def-Efficiency for a net of +18 efficiency-differential. Prior to that, they had a 101 OffRtg and 108 DefRtg for a -7 efficiency-differential in the 28 games with Smith. Again, the sample size is tiny so we can’t draw any ‘definitive’ conclusions yet, but it’s pretty clear that the team is playing its ‘best’ ball of the year right now. Meeks has strengthen the second unit, Brandon Jennings is actually looking like an ‘NBA’ PG again, and the combo of Drummond and Monroe are playing much more efficient game than when Smith was on the floor. Tonight Detroit takes on an Orlando squad that has beaten them earlier this season. This is a ‘revenge’ game for the Pistons and I like their chances of a strong effort. At the same time, Magic are coming off a huge upset win @ Miami last night. A number of their key guys logged heavy minutes in that one, but more importantly, they logged minutes in a number high-leverage situations through the 4th quarter. Typically a young team has a hard time maintaining that kind of an effort from game to game, and after such a hard fought road win I expect a let-down out of Orlando. This is also a b2b game for them and 4th in 5 nights, so fatigue clearly could be an issue. Detroit ranks 8th in TO-rate while Orlando is 24th, with this discrepancy being potentially larger tonight in a tough physical spot for the Magic. In addition, Orlando ranks 29th in ORB-rate and 30th in offensive FT-rate. “Easy” buckets from put-backs or from the charity stripe, are going to be tough to come by in this one and for Magic to win the game they’ll have to be very efficient from the floor offensively. Hard to see that happening in a tough spot like tonight. There are a lot of elements that favor Detroit in tonight’s game and situationally this is a great spot to back them. This might be one of my favorite plays this year so far.
Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5
In the first meeting with ATL, Cavs were ‘ridiculous’ from the floor offensively and blew away the Hawks by 33 points. In the 2nd meeting, ATL returned the favor, shooting 65% from the field and blowing out the Cavs by 29 points. Is this Cleveland’s turn to now go off offensively and win by double-digits or are we actually going to see a close game in this series? I think we’ll see a close game. Everyone knows that the Cavs haven’t jelled yet and have played some uninspiring ball this season. Well, if a 23-point home beat-down at the hands of a 6-23 (7-23 now) Detroit team doesn’t “inspire” you, then I don’t know what will. It’s time for Cavs’ players to ‘put up or shut up’ as they say, and to play with as much energy and intensity as at any point this season. It seems like this team is on a brink of something, either totally falling apart or on a brink of coming together. I’m betting on the latter. It’s LeBron’s 30th birthday today and I would expect him to come out with an aggressive mindset here. Kyrie Irving is back, so expect him to put forth a strong effort as well. And I also expect a strong effort from Kevin Love, who is facing an ATL team that is one of the weaker rebounding teams in the league. This is one of those games where the loss of Varejao won’t be as pronounced, as Atlanta ranks 20th in rebounding rate and 30th on the offensive glass. Expect Love, Thompson, and James to do a good job of controlling the glass in this one. Finally, I want to point out that the first two games between these two teams took place in Cleveland, and the Cavs were -7 point home favorites in each. With standard home/away adjustments, this line should be around -1/PK CLE tonight. Well, the Cavs are actually catching more than two buckets here as I believe we’re seeing an over-adjustment by the Bookmakers. I’ll back the Cavs in this one as I think they’ll come out with a lot of urgency tonight.
Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5
The worst team (MIN) in the West is taking on the 3rd worst team (UTA) in the conference here. The difference though is that Utah is on a b2b and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. They’re coming off a very competitive game @ LA yesterday, a game they lost by only 4 points. Favors and Hayward played 35+ minutes in that one while Burke logged 32. Alec Burks is still out and though he’s not a difference-maker per say, his absence hurts Utah’s depth, which is already one of the worst in the league ranking 29th in scoring. Minnesota has had 2 days to rest and prepare for this one and should be much fresher. Minnesota ranks 6th defensively in forcing TO’s, while Utah ranks 22nd in offensive TO-rate. That could very well be the difference in this one. Tonight is the last game of Minnesota’s 4-game roadie. They are 2-0 ATS in the last 2 games, and I expect a strong effort again tonight to try and secure one win on this trip.
Los Angeles Lakers +6
I hate this LA team but two factors in this one made them backable to me. When Kobe Bryant returned from this 3-game absence, he only attempted 10 shots and dished out 7 assists. Is he becoming more of a ‘team player’? Possibly. In addition, Kobe is going to be limited going forward to around 30 minutes per game. I’d like to see that number even lower, but at the very least we’ll know that he should be ‘fresher’ throughout. Lakers beat the Warriors and almost won @ Dallas without Kobe, so clearly Bryant might have gotten the message. Denver is the 4th worst team in the Western Conference and I believe they’re laying too many points here. I have this game at -4.7 Denver, and I think LA has a good shot to play a competitive game here.
Detroit Pistons -1
Pistons are 0-8 ATS as a ‘favorite’ this year but this is the first time they’re listed as such in the post-Josh Smith era. I know it’s been two games only, but since Smith was released by the team, Detroit is averaging 118 Off-Efficiency and 100 Def-Efficiency for a net of +18 efficiency-differential. Prior to that, they had a 101 OffRtg and 108 DefRtg for a -7 efficiency-differential in the 28 games with Smith. Again, the sample size is tiny so we can’t draw any ‘definitive’ conclusions yet, but it’s pretty clear that the team is playing its ‘best’ ball of the year right now. Meeks has strengthen the second unit, Brandon Jennings is actually looking like an ‘NBA’ PG again, and the combo of Drummond and Monroe are playing much more efficient game than when Smith was on the floor. Tonight Detroit takes on an Orlando squad that has beaten them earlier this season. This is a ‘revenge’ game for the Pistons and I like their chances of a strong effort. At the same time, Magic are coming off a huge upset win @ Miami last night. A number of their key guys logged heavy minutes in that one, but more importantly, they logged minutes in a number high-leverage situations through the 4th quarter. Typically a young team has a hard time maintaining that kind of an effort from game to game, and after such a hard fought road win I expect a let-down out of Orlando. This is also a b2b game for them and 4th in 5 nights, so fatigue clearly could be an issue. Detroit ranks 8th in TO-rate while Orlando is 24th, with this discrepancy being potentially larger tonight in a tough physical spot for the Magic. In addition, Orlando ranks 29th in ORB-rate and 30th in offensive FT-rate. “Easy” buckets from put-backs or from the charity stripe, are going to be tough to come by in this one and for Magic to win the game they’ll have to be very efficient from the floor offensively. Hard to see that happening in a tough spot like tonight. There are a lot of elements that favor Detroit in tonight’s game and situationally this is a great spot to back them. This might be one of my favorite plays this year so far.
Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5
In the first meeting with ATL, Cavs were ‘ridiculous’ from the floor offensively and blew away the Hawks by 33 points. In the 2nd meeting, ATL returned the favor, shooting 65% from the field and blowing out the Cavs by 29 points. Is this Cleveland’s turn to now go off offensively and win by double-digits or are we actually going to see a close game in this series? I think we’ll see a close game. Everyone knows that the Cavs haven’t jelled yet and have played some uninspiring ball this season. Well, if a 23-point home beat-down at the hands of a 6-23 (7-23 now) Detroit team doesn’t “inspire” you, then I don’t know what will. It’s time for Cavs’ players to ‘put up or shut up’ as they say, and to play with as much energy and intensity as at any point this season. It seems like this team is on a brink of something, either totally falling apart or on a brink of coming together. I’m betting on the latter. It’s LeBron’s 30th birthday today and I would expect him to come out with an aggressive mindset here. Kyrie Irving is back, so expect him to put forth a strong effort as well. And I also expect a strong effort from Kevin Love, who is facing an ATL team that is one of the weaker rebounding teams in the league. This is one of those games where the loss of Varejao won’t be as pronounced, as Atlanta ranks 20th in rebounding rate and 30th on the offensive glass. Expect Love, Thompson, and James to do a good job of controlling the glass in this one. Finally, I want to point out that the first two games between these two teams took place in Cleveland, and the Cavs were -7 point home favorites in each. With standard home/away adjustments, this line should be around -1/PK CLE tonight. Well, the Cavs are actually catching more than two buckets here as I believe we’re seeing an over-adjustment by the Bookmakers. I’ll back the Cavs in this one as I think they’ll come out with a lot of urgency tonight.
Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5
The worst team (MIN) in the West is taking on the 3rd worst team (UTA) in the conference here. The difference though is that Utah is on a b2b and playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. They’re coming off a very competitive game @ LA yesterday, a game they lost by only 4 points. Favors and Hayward played 35+ minutes in that one while Burke logged 32. Alec Burks is still out and though he’s not a difference-maker per say, his absence hurts Utah’s depth, which is already one of the worst in the league ranking 29th in scoring. Minnesota has had 2 days to rest and prepare for this one and should be much fresher. Minnesota ranks 6th defensively in forcing TO’s, while Utah ranks 22nd in offensive TO-rate. That could very well be the difference in this one. Tonight is the last game of Minnesota’s 4-game roadie. They are 2-0 ATS in the last 2 games, and I expect a strong effort again tonight to try and secure one win on this trip.
Los Angeles Lakers +6
I hate this LA team but two factors in this one made them backable to me. When Kobe Bryant returned from this 3-game absence, he only attempted 10 shots and dished out 7 assists. Is he becoming more of a ‘team player’? Possibly. In addition, Kobe is going to be limited going forward to around 30 minutes per game. I’d like to see that number even lower, but at the very least we’ll know that he should be ‘fresher’ throughout. Lakers beat the Warriors and almost won @ Dallas without Kobe, so clearly Bryant might have gotten the message. Denver is the 4th worst team in the Western Conference and I believe they’re laying too many points here. I have this game at -4.7 Denver, and I think LA has a good shot to play a competitive game here.
NHL
Hot teams
— Montreal won six of its last seven games. Panthers won four of their last five.
— Nashville won six of its last nine games.
— San Jose won its last eight home games, but lost last two overall.
Cold teams
— Blues lost four of their last five games.
— Edmonton lost nine in row, 20 of last 21 games. Kings lost last four road games.
— Canucks lost six of their last eight games.
Series records
— Canadiens won five of last seven games with Florida.
— Blues won eight of last ten games with Nashville, but lost two of three this year.
— Kings won their last seven games with Edmonton.
— Sharks won 11 of their last 13 games with Vancouver.
Totals
— Four of last five Montreal road games stayed under.
— Five of last six Nashville games stayed under.
— Four of last five Los Angeles road games went over.
— Seven of last nine San Jose games stayed under.
Back-to-back
— Montreal is 4-2 on road if it played night before.
— Blues are 3-2 if they played night before; Nashville is 0-2.
— Los Angeles is 2-3 if it played the night before.
Hot teams
— Montreal won six of its last seven games. Panthers won four of their last five.
— Nashville won six of its last nine games.
— San Jose won its last eight home games, but lost last two overall.
Cold teams
— Blues lost four of their last five games.
— Edmonton lost nine in row, 20 of last 21 games. Kings lost last four road games.
— Canucks lost six of their last eight games.
Series records
— Canadiens won five of last seven games with Florida.
— Blues won eight of last ten games with Nashville, but lost two of three this year.
— Kings won their last seven games with Edmonton.
— Sharks won 11 of their last 13 games with Vancouver.
Totals
— Four of last five Montreal road games stayed under.
— Five of last six Nashville games stayed under.
— Four of last five Los Angeles road games went over.
— Seven of last nine San Jose games stayed under.
Back-to-back
— Montreal is 4-2 on road if it played night before.
— Blues are 3-2 if they played night before; Nashville is 0-2.
— Los Angeles is 2-3 if it played the night before.
NBA
Hot Teams
— Detroit won last two games, by 10-23, after losing previous four (6-4 last ten AU). Magic won three of last four games (2-2 HF).
— Hawks won five of last six games (7-5 last 12 HF).
— Bulls won last seven games (5-2 last seven HF). Brooklyn won/covered four of last five games (7-5 last 12 AU).
— Suns won/covered their last six games (4-4 AU). Pelicans covered six of last eight games that followed a loss (6-5 HF).
— Washington won 13 of its last 16 games (1-3 AU). Dallas won five of its last seven games (2-7 last nine HF).
— Jazz won four of last six games, covered seven of last eight.
— Portland won eight of its last nine games (9-5 HF). Toronto also won eight of last nine games (10-4 A).
Cold Teams
— Cavaliers lost three of last four road games (2-1 AU).
— Spurs lost five of last seven games (5-2 AU). Memphis lost four of its last five games (0-5 last five HF).
— Minnesota lost last eight games (2-6 last eight AU).
— Lakers lost six of last seven games (3-1 last four AU). Denver lost six of its last nine games (1-8 vs spread, 3-4-1 HF).
— 76ers lost seven of their last nine games (6-9 AU). Golden State lost three of last five games after winning 16 in row (7-4 HF).
Series Records
— Magic won three of last four games with Detroit.
— Hawks won five of last six games with Cleveland.
— Spurs won four of last five games with Memphis (loss in 3 OTs).
— Bulls won five of last six vs Brooklyn, winning by 18-25 this year.
— Pelicans lost eight of last ten games with Phoenix.
— Mavericks won their last nine games with Washington.
— Jazz won eight of last twelve games with Minnesota (1-3 last four).
— Lakers lost their last seven games with Denver.
— Raptors lost ten of last eleven games with Portland.
— 76ers lost three of last four with Golden State, losing by 23-40 in LY’s meetings.
Totals
— Four of last five Orlando games stayed under total; five of Pistons’ last six games went over.
— Six of last eight Cleveland road games stayed under.
— 11 of last 13 San Antonio games went over total.
— Seven of last ten Brooklyn road games stayed under.
— Nine of last 12 New Orleans home games went over.
— Five of last six Dallas home games stayed under.
— Four of last five Minnesota road games stayed under.
— Four of last five Denver games stayed under total.
— Over is 10-3-1 in Toronto’s road games.
— 10 of last 12 Philly road games stayed under total.
Back-to-Backs
— Orlando is 6-2 vs spread if it played night before, 1-1 at home.
— Nets are 3-3 vs spread if they played night before. Bulls are 4-4.
— Washington is 3-1 vs spread on road if it played night before.
— Utah is 2-5 vs spread if it played night before, 1-1 at home.
Hot Teams
— Detroit won last two games, by 10-23, after losing previous four (6-4 last ten AU). Magic won three of last four games (2-2 HF).
— Hawks won five of last six games (7-5 last 12 HF).
— Bulls won last seven games (5-2 last seven HF). Brooklyn won/covered four of last five games (7-5 last 12 AU).
— Suns won/covered their last six games (4-4 AU). Pelicans covered six of last eight games that followed a loss (6-5 HF).
— Washington won 13 of its last 16 games (1-3 AU). Dallas won five of its last seven games (2-7 last nine HF).
— Jazz won four of last six games, covered seven of last eight.
— Portland won eight of its last nine games (9-5 HF). Toronto also won eight of last nine games (10-4 A).
Cold Teams
— Cavaliers lost three of last four road games (2-1 AU).
— Spurs lost five of last seven games (5-2 AU). Memphis lost four of its last five games (0-5 last five HF).
— Minnesota lost last eight games (2-6 last eight AU).
— Lakers lost six of last seven games (3-1 last four AU). Denver lost six of its last nine games (1-8 vs spread, 3-4-1 HF).
— 76ers lost seven of their last nine games (6-9 AU). Golden State lost three of last five games after winning 16 in row (7-4 HF).
Series Records
— Magic won three of last four games with Detroit.
— Hawks won five of last six games with Cleveland.
— Spurs won four of last five games with Memphis (loss in 3 OTs).
— Bulls won five of last six vs Brooklyn, winning by 18-25 this year.
— Pelicans lost eight of last ten games with Phoenix.
— Mavericks won their last nine games with Washington.
— Jazz won eight of last twelve games with Minnesota (1-3 last four).
— Lakers lost their last seven games with Denver.
— Raptors lost ten of last eleven games with Portland.
— 76ers lost three of last four with Golden State, losing by 23-40 in LY’s meetings.
Totals
— Four of last five Orlando games stayed under total; five of Pistons’ last six games went over.
— Six of last eight Cleveland road games stayed under.
— 11 of last 13 San Antonio games went over total.
— Seven of last ten Brooklyn road games stayed under.
— Nine of last 12 New Orleans home games went over.
— Five of last six Dallas home games stayed under.
— Four of last five Minnesota road games stayed under.
— Four of last five Denver games stayed under total.
— Over is 10-3-1 in Toronto’s road games.
— 10 of last 12 Philly road games stayed under total.
Back-to-Backs
— Orlando is 6-2 vs spread if it played night before, 1-1 at home.
— Nets are 3-3 vs spread if they played night before. Bulls are 4-4.
— Washington is 3-1 vs spread on road if it played night before.
— Utah is 2-5 vs spread if it played night before, 1-1 at home.
