Steve Merril NCAAB
NCAA Basketball
(3% play) IOWA -2.5 (vs. Michigan State) - 9:00 pm ET (BTN) #548
Michigan State comes into this game as the #1 team in the country with a perfect 13-0 SU record. However, the Spartans have played just three solid teams this season; they beat Kansas by 6 points, Louisville by 4 points, and Florida by 6 points. Michigan State played all three of those games with their best player, Denzel Valentine, and two of those games were at home with another game on a neutral court. Valentine is out until mid-January with a knee injury, and the Spartans will play their first true road conference game while missing their most important player. Valentine was playing 30.6 minutes per game while averaging 19 points per game, collecting eight rebounds per game, and dishing out seven assists per game. Valentine dominated the ball on offense while accounting for 29.2% of Michigan State’s possessions and taking 30.1% of the shots while grabbing 24.5% of the defensive rebounds. That’s a lot of production by one player, and his absence tonight will be too much to overcome for the Spartans.
Iowa comes into this game with a 9-3 SU record, including a perfect 6-0 mark at home. Their three losses have come by a combined 12 points to good teams like Dayton, Notre Dame, and Iowa State who are a combined 27-6 SU on the season. The Hawkeyes are flying well under the radar this season, and they are an experienced team that has a lot of talent. Iowa starts four seniors, including Jarrod Uthoff who will be a top NBA draft pick. Iowa is a well-balanced team as they’ve had nine different players reach double figures at least once this season, and five different players have led the team in scoring at least once in 12 games. “We’re in a good place,” said head coach Fran McCaffery. “We’re taking care of the ball, our shot selection is good, and our ball movement is good. We have a lot of different guys producing, so ultimately, I feel pretty good.” Iowa is catching Michigan State at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the short points with the Hawkeyes in this game on Tuesday night.
Play IOWA (-) as a 3% play.