Service Plays Tuesday 12/29/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29

Game 223-224: UCLA vs. Temple
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 92.524; Temple 86.221
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 6 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: UCLA by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-3 1/2); Under

Game 225-226: Wisconsin vs. Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 94.071; Miami (FL) 99.324
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 5 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 3; 58
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-3); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets

New Orleans Hornets at Houston Rockets (-5, 193)

The Rockets are 18-13, seventh-best in a tough Western Conference. They are thriving despite the absence of their franchise center Yao Ming, and disgruntled shooting guard Tracy McGrady.

Despite a roster of castoffs and no-names, Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry, Trevor Ariza and Luis Scola have taken it upon themselves to prove everybody wrong.

“We have a collection of guys who have been told they’re too ‘something’ to play in the NBA,” forward Shane Battier told reporters recently. “Too small, too short, too dumb, can’t shoot, unathletic.”

Brooks has the quickness to blow by defenders while getting his teammates involved. Landry possesses grit and low post scoring while Scola sets great screens and makes the most of his talents.

The new-look Rockets have already beaten elite NBA powers like the Los Angeles Lakers and Cleveland Cavaliers.

Meanwhile, the Hornets struggle to find consistency and scoring beyond Chris Paul and David West.

Pick: Houston


Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls (-5.5, 190)

The decision to fire head coach Vinny Del Negro has already been made. According to multiple sources, the only thing holding the Bulls back from letting the axe fall is a replacement.

So how will the Bulls respond with so many reports indicating their bench boss is a lame duck?

“We’re not worried about anything but playing,” Bulls point guard Derrick Rose told the Chicago Tribune on Christmas Eve. “The coaching decision, that’s up to the front office.”

Del Negro has tried shaking things up a bit to get a response from his slumping group. He benched John Salmons and inserted Kirk Hinrich to the starting lineup.

Del Negro is also happy to have Tyrus Thomas back and healthy. The athletic power forward registered 21 points and nine rebounds in his first game back since he broke his arm back at the beginning of November.

Chicago backers shouldn’t get their hopes up after one win against the Hornets.

Expect the Pacers to take advantage of a disorganized Chicago squad.

Pick: Pacers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets

Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators (-145, 5.5)

Ottawa backers have to wonder where the goal production is going to be coming from over the next few weeks. The Senators learned on Saturday that their captain and leading scorer Daniel Alfredsson will miss the next four to six weeks because of a separated shoulder.

Alfredsson joins No. 1 center Jason Spezza on the injury report. Spezza has been out the last few weeks and isn’t expected to rejoin the club for at least another month or so because of a knee injury.

“It’s very disappointing,” Sens coach Cory Clouston told the Ottawa Citizen. “It’s compounded when you lose Spezza and (Nick) Foligno, as well, so it’s not just one guy.

“We just need guys to step up. We need guys to pick up those minutes and play hard.”

Seems like a bad time to face a hot team like the Habs.

Pick: Under


Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings (-140, 5.5)

The Sens aren’t the only ones with injury woes. The Kings got Ryan Smyth back but lost play-making winger Justin Williams in the same game.

Williams and Smyth were excited to be united on Anze Kopitar’s line but Williams didn’t last more than two shifts before going down with a broken leg off a clean hit by Coyotes defenseman Ed Jovanovski.

“When (Williams) was coming in front of the bench on the stretcher, pulling his hair, he was hurting,” Kings coach Terry Murray told the Los Angeles Times. “He was hurting a lot.”

The Kings ended up losing to the Coyotes but afterwards in the locker room the talk centered on their fallen player.

“We were pretty hyped up and Smitty was happy to get him back,” Kopitar told reporters. “And a thing like that happens. It’s never good.”

Meanwhile, the Wild are in high spirits coming into Monday’s game fresh off two wins in a row.

Pick: Minnesota

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Champs Sports Bowl

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Miami Hurricanes (-3.5, 58)

Miami (9-3, 7-5 ATS) seems like a prohibitive favorite over Wisconsin (9-3, 6-6 ATS) in Tuesday’s Champs Sports Bowl. But the Hurricanes opened up giving only two points.

To most, that seemed too low for a team perceived to be more talented than the Badgers and certainly with a more impressive resume.

Miami owns high-profile wins over Georgia Tech and Oklahoma and, with a strong core of young playmakers, is poised to be ranked in or near the Top 10 next season.

In contrast, Wisconsin’s best wins came against Michigan State and Fresno State. Plus, who doesn’t remember the Badgers’ performance in last year’s 42-13 Champs Sports Bowl loss to Florida State?

Naturally, early action on the Canes bumped them up to -3, with several -3.5’s available online entering the weekend. With the number already past a field goal, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the line move even higher, although most Las Vegas books refused to budge off 3 as of Saturday afternoon.

But it appears bettors are more likely to get the Badgers at +4 than the Hurricanes at anything less than -3.

Injuries

Miami quarterback Jacory Harris has been hampered by a painful right thumb on his throwing hand.

The injury occurred in a Nov. 14 loss at North Carolina, a game in which Harris threw four interceptions.

He played through the pain in two convincing wins to end the season, 34-16 over Duke and 31-10 over South Florida. But the thumb is still bothering him.

"I thought my finger was just going to heal," Harris told the Miami Herald at the start of bowl practice. "But maybe something else is wrong with it. It's still the same as it was for the North Carolina game. I've gotten used to it"

It won’t keep him out.

The more costly injury for the Canes is the loss of starting left offensive tackle Jason Fox. The team’s MVP and projected first-day draft pick, Fox will miss the bowl game after having knee surgery.

Junior Orlando Franklin will replace Fox on an offensive line that struggled to protect Harris this season. Miami is 91st in the nation in sacks allowed. Wisconsin is 21st in the nation in sacks recorded.

Wisconsin has no notable injuries.

Statistically speaking

Wisconsin: Balanced and more explosive than in recent years, the Badgers owned the Big Ten’s top offense this season.

Wisconsin averaged 32.75 points per game. But those stats are a little misleading. Against the two best defenses they faced, Ohio State and Iowa, the Badgers, managed just 13 and 10 points respectively in back-to-back October losses to the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes.

Defensively, the Badgers are eighth in the nation against the run and didn’t allow a Big Ten foe to rush for more than 100 yards all season.

Miami: The Hurricanes are battle-tested after competing against the 16th toughest schedule, according to the Sagarin Ratings.

Miami does the majority of its damage through the air and has multiple big-play receivers capable of exploiting Wisconsin’s Big Ten speed.

However, how will the loss of their top offensive lineman affect the Canes passing attack? If the Badgers are able to hit Harris often, will his dinged-up thumb be able to hold up?

The Total

The total opened up at 58.5 and has seen very little movement.

Miami averages 31.67 points to go along with Wisconsin’s 32.75 points a game.

The Canes went 6-6 over/under, with an average total of 49.5.

Wisconsin went 8-4, over/under, with an average total of 52. The last four Badger games have gone over the total.

The game’s in Orlando, so weather is not expected to be a factor.

John Clay vs. Miami run defense

The Hurricanes allow only 114 yards on the ground per game.

Wisconsin averaged more than 200. Something has to give.

Clay, the Big Ten Player of the Year, is a horse who got stronger as the season went along. He has rushed for more than 100 yards in five straight games.

 

[ugk]

JB SPORTS
Bowl Games

3* UCLA
3* Miami FL

 

[ugk]

MIGHTY QUINN
After starting out 1-5, old Mighty has now reeled off 5 straight winners.

Today he likes

UCLA -4
Wisconsin +3

 

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JEFF CLINE
100* Miami Fl

Doc Sports comp play Temple Owls +4 1/2

 

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TIM TRUSHEL
10* UCLA under 45
10* UCLA

 

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MR A - SPORTS RUMBLE
Mr A he won on Georgia yesterday

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009 1:30 PM EST.
EagleBank Bowl
U-C-L-A Bruins (6-6) vs. Temple Owls (9-3)
RFK Stadium - Washington, D.C.
Temple is 9-1 both straight-up and against the spread in its last 10 games. UCLA is 4-6 both straight-up and against the spread in its last 10 games. Take the points. The Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

Oddsmakers: UCLA as a -4 point favorite with the total listed at 45 'over'.
Temple Owls +4

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Tuesday, December 29th, 2009 8:00 PM EST.
Champs Sports Bowl
(14) Miami-Florida Hurricanes (9-3) vs. (24) Wisconsin Badgers (9-3)
Florida Citrus Bowl - Orlando, Florida
Miami’s offense led by Quarterback Jacory Harris has thrown for 3,164 yards and 23 touchdowns, averaging 413 yards per game. Wisconsin vulnerable secondary will have a big task. The Hurricanes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Bowl games.

Oddsmakers: Miami-Florida as a -4 point favorite with the total listed at 58½ 'over'.
Miami-Florida Hurricanes -4

 

[ugk]

JOHNNY GUILD-SPORTS RUMBLE
Also won with Georgia yesterday

Tuesday, December 29th , 2009 8:00 PM EST.
Champs Sports Bowl
(14) Miami-Florida Hurricanes (9-3) vs. (24) Wisconsin Badgers (9-3)
Florida Citrus Bowl - Orlando, Florida
Home Record: Miami 5-1; Wisconsin 6-1
Road Record: Miami 4-2; Wisconsin 3-2
All-Time Series: Miami (2-1)
Last Meeting: 09/09/89 (Miami, 51-3 at Wisconsin)
Bowl Records: Miami (19-15 - 2-0 in Champs Sports Bowl)
Wisconsin (10-10 - 0-1 in Champs Sports Bowl)

The 14th-ranked Miami-Florida Hurricanes take on the 24th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers in a close to home contest in Orlando to take part in the 2009 Champs Sports Bowl. Miami has won the last two meetings, but they haven't met since 1989.

This clash could go either way, Miami and Wisconsin have identical 9-3 records and appears to be an evenly match on both sides of the ball.

I believe the Hurricanes have a slight edge with a balance offense and a powerful aerial arsenal. Look for quarterback Jacory Harris to score big against Wisconsin. The Badgers are ranked 66th against the pass, allowing an average 219.9 yards per game.
Trends:
Wisconsin is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games
Wisconsin is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
Wisconsin is 1-6 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning record.
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
Miami is 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games
Miami is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games.



Tuesday, December 29th, 2009
Time Game Selections
EagleBank Bowl
4:30 PM EST. U-C-L-A Bruins (6-6) vs. Temple Owls (9-3) Temple Owls +4

Champs Sports Bowl
8:00 PM EST. (14) Miami-Florida (9-3) vs. (24) Wisconsin (9-3) Miami-Florida Hurricanes -3.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sweep (North Coast )
4 Star Miami
2 Star Under 46 Temple/UCLA

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Play Book

Temple
Wisconsin

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Point Wise

Temple
Wisconsin

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Winning Points

Temple
Wiscosin

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Hotsheet - CFB

Paid Picks - Wisc....UCLA
Free Pick - U45 UCLA/Temp

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Double Dragon

Started out 4-0, lost his last 3 plays




HYDRA
MIAMI, FL -3 (-120) (dec. 29th)

TEMPLE +4 (dec. 29th)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data


NCAA Bowls – UCLA/Temple over 45.5; Miami under 58

NHL – Islanders -140; Blackhawks -140

NBA – Pacers +5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CKO : 1-2 IN BOWLS


9* TEMPLE (+5) vs. Ucla (EagleBank Bowl, Dec. 29, in Washington D.C)——Eager Owls proud to be bowling after
a 30-year wait; Pac-10 often underachieves when favored in minor bowls.



CTO

10* SYRACUSE over *Seton Hall...The concerns of Big East sources who warned about Seton Hall’s potentially misleading 8-0 break from gate were validated when Pirates were dumped at home by Temple Dec. 19. And doubt the Hall can get its transition game going any better vs. high-flying Syracuse and perhaps Jim Boeheim’s best zone “D” in recent memory. SYRACUSE 81 - *Seton Hall 64 RATING - 10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLDSHEET: 3-8 IN BOWLS


*Temple 20 - Ucla 16 —The prospects of this curious matchup have to
include some sort of projection on the crowd count at RFK Stadium, which some
locals believe might more resemble a sparse late-season gathering to watch
the lowly Nationals at their new ballpark a few Metro stops away. With only a
handful of UCLA rooters expected to trek 2500 or so miles, and with Temple
fans unlikely to beat a path down I-95 from Philly, we’ll put the over/under for the
actual crowd count at 7500...and quote the “under” odds at -120.
Temple, however, is used to performing in such anonymity, which hasn’t
stopped the Owls (in their first bowl since 1979) from posting a noteworthy 16-
7 spread mark since a year ago under the fast-rising HC Al “Touch of” Golden,
who ironically interviewed for the UCLA job before Rick Neuheisel landed it two
years ago. Maybe the Bruins erred, considering Neuheisel’s SU mark of 8-14
(which excludes a pair of “scrimmages” vs. Washington State) since. Pac-10
insiders say it’s no surprise, given the constant state of flux of a Bruin offense
that not even sage o.c. Norm Chow has been able to repair the past two years.
A big but very slow OL is again unlikely to open up much daylight for an
unspectacular crew of UCLA RBs against a stout Temple rush “D” allowing only
113 ypg. Meanwhile, UCLA RS frosh QB Kevin Prince continues to nurse a sore
shoulder that knocked him out of the USC finale. The Owls’ best weapon, frosh
RB Bernard Pierce (1308 YR; back from a late-season shoulder injury) scores
TDs (15 of ‘em), while the Bruins can only get FGs from their top gun, Groza
Award-winning PK Kai Forbath. Yet, noting UCLA has gone “under” in 14 of its
last 16, that might be the best recommendation.
(DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)




*MIAMI-FLORIDA 35 - Wisconsin 26—Simply put, speed kills, and Miami
has far more of it than Wisconsin. Hurricane HC Randy Shannon plugged the
recruiting leakage that had plagued “The U” for years by nailing three top-20
classes in a row. Miami soph QB Jacory Harris has developed quickly, throwing
for 3164 yards and 23 scores in his first full season. Harris passed for 277 ypg
in Miami’s last 7 games, although his interceptions fueled losses at North
Carolina and Clemson. He connected with Leonard Hankerson and Travis
Benjamin a combined 72 times for 18 ypc.
In order to be successful, the Badgers must establish its running game, keyed
by John Clay (116 ypg rushing, 14th in the country). But Wiscy HC Bret Bielema
might have to go to plan “B” early against Miami, as the Hurricanes allowed just
3.5 ypc. Indeed, Miami held prolific Georgia Tech to just 95 YR on 39 carries in
a 33-17 victory (the Yellow Jackets’ option finished the season second in the
country in rushing). Miami also took the run away from Clemson and C.J. Spiller,
holding the Tigers to 84 YR on 34 attempts. The Canes feature 4 all-ACC
players on defense, including LBs Darryl Sharpton and Colin McCarthy. UW QB
Scott Tolzien was efficient and fairly productive, but had problems with picks in
losses to Ohio State and Iowa. Badger TE Garrett Graham (45 catches, teamhigh
7 TDs) and WR Nick Toon (52 recs.) are Tolzien’s main targets.
There is a marked difference in strength of schedule. Both teams finished the
season 9-3, but Miami played much tougher opponents, showing a 5-point OPR
edge using TGS ratings as a measure. The Canes also have an edge with allleague
PK Matt Bosher (89% career FGs) over Badger PK Philip Welch (missed
7 of his 22 attempts TY). Wisconsin will have its customary contingent of
enthusiastic fans fleeing the Wisconsin winter, but that didn’t help the Badgers
losing and failing to cover in this same bowl last season, and at Tampa in the
Outback two years ago.
(DNP...SR: Miami-Florida 2-1)