Sportswagers
Navy @ SAN DIEGO STATE
SAN DIEGO STATE -3 -106 over Navy
Poinsettia Bowl – Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA
9:30 PM EST. One question we always try to answer when handicapping the bowls is whether a team needs a win to legitimize its season or whether its principal goals have already been met. It's true that San Diego State can already call 2012 a success with a winning record clinched by a victory over rival San Jose in the finale. But for Navy, the end of the regular season truly left this team needing nothing more. It's hard to overstate the emphasis the Midshipmen place on beating Army. No coaches recruited during the three weeks leading up to the Army game, as it was all hands on deck for the most physical, insistent practices of the season. The game itself was physical and it was certainly the most emotionally draining, as it always is. Recruiting is an urgent focus and even demanding head coach Ken Niumatalolo backed off practice after the game, giving his players more time than usual to enjoy the landmark win. The Mids are basically spotting San Diego State three weeks of preparation for this game. Navy's season is already made, and this is one underdog that enters its bowl without a chip on its shoulder or something to prove. Against Bowl teams this season, Navy is 1-6 ATS.
The Aztecs have the customary edges that Navy bowl foes usually sport, like a man-for-man athletic advantage in all three phases and the extra prep time so crucial for defending the unfamiliar triple-option attack. The San Diego State offense has enough playmakers to score plenty of points on an undersized Navy defense that can't exploit the weak spots along the Aztecs offensive line. And as difficult as the triple option is to defend, SDSU has a couple of tricks up their sleeve that Navy will not have an answer for. Aztecs RB, Donnel Pumphrey has quietly been one of the best running backs in the country. With 1,761 yards and 19 touchdowns, he is third in the nation in yards on the ground. We have no idea how the Mids are going to stop this balanced attack. In terms of common opponents this season, Navy lost to Air Force 30-21 while SDSU defeated Air Force 30-14. They had one other common opponent as well. The Mids defeated San Jose State 41-31 while San Diego State whacked San Jose 38-7. The Aztecs have won eight straight games over service academies and SDSU was perfect at home this season going 5-0 with all victories occurring by double digits and we’re not about to step in front of that.
Our Pick
SAN DIEGO STATE -3 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)