THE SPORTS ADVISORS
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
LAS VEGAS BOWL
(at Las Vegas)
(15) BYU (10-2, 6-6 ATS) vs. (16) Oregon State (8-4, 7-4 ATS)
Three weeks after coming up short in their bid to win the Pac-10 title and a trip to the Rose Bowl, the Beavers make their way to Sam Boyd Stadium to take on red-hot Brigham Young, which won eight of its final nine regular-season games.
Oregon State put itself in position for a conference title and Rose Bowl bid by winning four straight Pac-10 games (3-1 ATS) heading into its rivalry matchup with Oregon on Dec. 3. The Beavers led that contest into the second half but couldn’t fend off a Ducks rally and fell 37-33 on the road. Oregon State did cash as 9½-point underdogs for their fourth straight ATS win and seventh in the past eight contests.
The Cougars edged rival Utah 26-23 in overtime in their finale, but came up short as 7½-point favorites. BYU’s only loss of the Mountain West Conference season came to BCS-bowl-bound TCU, which pounded the Cougars in Provo, Utah, 38-7 as a 2½-point road favorite. Prior to that loss, BYU had won four in a row (2-2 ATS), and it followed the TCU defeat with a season-ending four-game winning streak (2-2 ATS).
The Beavers, who have won five straight bowl games since 2003 (4-1 ATS), scored a 3-0 win over Pittsburgh in last year’s Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, cashing as a one-point favorite. Oregon State’s last appearance in the Las Vegas Bowl came in 2003 when it crushed New Mexico 55-14 as 2½-point underdogs. This is BYU’s fifth straight trip to the Las Vegas Bowl, and it has split its last four contests both SU and ATS, including last year’s 31-21 loss to Arizona as a three-point underdog.
Oregon State has won five of the eight lifetime matchups with the Cougars, with the last coming in 1986 when the Beavers scored a 10-7 home win.
Both teams are playing at Sam Boyd Stadium for the second time this year. Oregon State barely edged UNLV 23-21 as a 6½-point road chalk on Sept. 12, while the Cougars visited Las Vegas a month later and crushed the Rebels 59-21, easily covering as a 16½-point road favorite.
First-team all-Pac-10 quarterback Sean Canfield led the conference with 3,103 passing yards, finishing with 21 touchdowns and six interceptions. Behind Canfield and electrifying sophomore RB Jacquizz Rodgers (1,377 rushing yards, 20 TDs), the Beavers put up 32.4 points and 419.4 yards per game, including scoring 32 points or more in each of the last four contests (38.5 ppg) and seven of the past nine games.
QB Max Hall, who has a school-record 31 wins in his career, paces a BYU offense that averages 34.8 points and 436.9 yards per game. Hall is completing 67.5 percent of his throws this season for 3,368 yards, 30 TDs and 14 INTs. Behind Hall is the school’s all-time leading rusher, Harvey Unga, who has 3,384 rushing yards in his career, including 1,031 and 10 TDs this year.
BYU has covered in five of six when coming off a non-cover, but the Cougars are on ATS slides of 5-11 on grass, 3-7 in non-conference action, 1-4 after a straight-up win and 1-4 as an underdog. Meanwhile, Oregon State is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 23-8 overall, 6-1 in bowl games, 4-1 as a bowl favorite, 49-19 after a spread-cover, 12-5 as a favorite and 5-2 against Mountain West teams.
The Cougars have stayed below the total in four of five bowl games, five of seven against Pac-10 teams and four of five as an underdog. The Beavers are on “over” runs of 7-3 in December games and 5-2 after a spread-cover, but the “under” has been the play in four of their last five non-conference games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(9) Michigan State (9-2, 3-7 ATS) at (2) Texas (10-0, 6-2 ATS)
The unbeaten Longhorns look to topple their second Top 10 opponent in 72 hours when they welcome ninth-ranked Michigan State to the Erwin Events Center.
The Spartans have ripped off four straight victories, all against weak competition (Wofford, The Citadel, Oakland and Indiana-Purdue/Fort Wayne). Even though all four were double-digit routs by an average of 19.5 points per game, Michigan State went just 1-3 ATS, and it has now failed to cover in four of five overall and seven of 10 lined outings this season.
Michigan State has faced three teams currently ranked in the Top 25, beating Gonzaga 75-71 as an 11½-point home favorite, then losing to Florida 77-74 as a 3½-point neutral-site chalk and falling to North Carolina 89-82 as a 1½-point road underdog.
Texas faced its stiffest test of the season Saturday and passed with ease, crushing North Carolina 103-90 as a seven-point chalk in a game played at the new Dallas Cowboys Stadium. Four players scored 20 points or more in the victory – with Damion James (25 points, 15 rebounds) and Dexter Pittman (23 points, 15 rebounds) registering double-doubles. Also, the Longhorns actually got outshot 48 percent to 41.4 percent, but they had a huge 56-36 rebounding edge and they made 24 of 34 free throws, while the defending champs went 11-for-19 from the charity stripe.
These national powers have faced off each of the last three years, with Michigan State going 3-0 SU and ATS. That includes last year’s 67-63 victory as a 5½-point underdog in a game played at the Toyota Center in Houston. The SU winner has covered in all five meetings between these schools dating to 1999.
The Spartans have scored at least 72 points in 10 of 11 games this year and are averaging 82.5 ppg on 50.6 percent shooting. They’ve also held seven opponents to 62 points or fewer and are yielding 65.1 ppg (38.3 percent).
The Longhorns have won every game by double digits, with Saturday’s 13-point win over UNC being their narrowest victory of the season. Texas is are putting up 87.2 ppg on 50.5 percent shooting – scoring 103, 104 and 107 in three of the last four – while surrendering just 57.4 ppg (33.3 percent). The Tar Heels became just the second team to score more than 62 points against the ‘Horns, who have held five opponents to 54 points or less.
In addition to its current 1-4 ATS slump, Michigan State has failed to cover in five straight games against opponents with a winning record and it is 5-16-2 ATS in its last 23 Tuesday outings. However, Tom Izzo’s squad is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 after a non-cover, and including its recent success against Texas, the Spartans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 against Big 12 opponents.
The Longhorns are on positive pointspread runs of 8-2 overall (all in non-conference play), 6-1 at home, 7-1 against winning teams, 6-2 after a SU win, 4-1 after an ATS triumph and 20-8-1 on Tuesday.
Michigan State has topped the total in four of five road games, and Texas is on “over” surges of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on Tuesday and 7-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
Cal (6-3, 4-4 ATS) at (1) Kansas (10-0, 4-3 ATS)
Cal faces its toughest task of the season when it travels to Allen Fieldhouse for a battle with the undefeated and top-ranked Jayhawks.
The Golden Bears are coming off consecutive blowout victories over Iowa State (82-63 as an eight-point home favorite on Dec. 5) and Pacific (79-54 as a six-point road chalk on Dec. 9). Cal has tallied at least 70 points in every game this season, and its last five victories have come by margins of 34, 32, 21, 19 and 25 points. However, all three of the Bears’ defeats have come against teams currently ranked in the Top 25: 95-73 loss to Syracuse in a pick-em game in New York; 76-70 to Ohio State as a 3 ½-point underdog in New York; 86-78 at New Mexico as a 5½-point road underdog.
Kansas fended off pesky Michigan on Saturday, winning 75-64 but falling way short of covering as a 20-point home favorite. Marcus Morris (23 points, 10 rebounds) was one of four Jayhawks to score in double figures, and Kansas shot 52.1 percent, held Michigan to 35.8 percent and had a 37-29 rebounding edge, but it missed on 13 of 19 three-point tries.
The Jayhawks have annihilated nine of their first 10 opponents, the only close contest being a 57-55 victory over Memphis as a 10½-point favorite on a neutral court in St. Louis, Mo. The Jayhawks’ other nine victories have been by margins of 36, 50, 30, 37, 67, 12, 35, 25 and 11 points. Also, Kansas has the nation’s longest home winning streak at 48 games.
These teams last met in 2005 on a neutral court in Kansas City, Mo., with the Jayhawks winning 69-56 as a 3½-point favorite. Kansas also beat the Bears 80-67 as a 7½-point chalk in 2002.
Cal is putting up 79.1 ppg while shooting 46.6 percent from the field, figures that are actually dwarfed by Kansas’ 88.8 ppg and 51.2 percent field-goal average. The Jayhawks also rate a huge edge defensively, yielding just 58.3 ppg (34.5 percent), while the Bears surrender 68 ppg (41.2 percent).
The Bears carry nothing but negative ATS trends, including 3-7 on the road, 3-7 against the Big 12, 2-6 against winning teams and 1-4 after a spread-cover. On the flip side, despite failing to cash against Michigan on Saturday, Kansas is on positive pointspread stretches of 19-7-1 overall, 35-16-1 at home, 39-17-1 against winning teams and 5-0 after a non-cover. However, the Jayhawks have come up short in six of their last seven on Tuesday and eight of 11 against Pac-10 opponents.
For Cal, the over is on runs of 38-17 overall in lined contests, 6-2 in non-conference play, 4-1 on the road, 41-15-1 after a SU win and 35-15-1 after an ATS win. The over is also 5-1 in Kansas’ last six on Tuesday, but the under is 16-5 in its last 21 against Pac-10 foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS
(19) Texas A&M (9-2, 5-3 ATS) at (22) Washington (7-2, 2-6 ATS)
Texas A&M plays just its second true road game of the season when it treks to the Pacific Northwest for an non-conference showdown with the 22nd-ranked Huskies at Bank of America Arena in Seattle.
The Aggies climbed a couple of spots in this week’s poll after knocking off The Citadel on Saturday 71-50 as a 16-point home favorite. Texas A&M, which rebounded from an 84-81 loss to New Mexico in Houston the previous Saturday, snapped an 0-3 ATS slide with the spread-cover. The Aggies have scored at least 66 points in every game this year, and they’re averaging 77 ppg on 47.9 percent shooting over the past five contests, while giving up 64 ppg (39.6 percent).
Washington has alternated SU wins and losses in its last five games, most recently blowing out Portland 89-54 on Saturday. The Huskies cashed as an 11-point favorite in that contest, ending an 0-5 ATS slump. Washington has tallied at least 66 points in eight of nine contests this year, averaging 84.3 ppg overall on 45.5 percent shooting. However, six of the team’s nine opponents have scored 69 points or more.
Texas A&M is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS against opponents currently ranked in the Top 25 or ranked when the Aggies faced them, while Washington’s two losses came against current Top 25 foes (99-92 overtime loss at Texas Tech in a pick-em game; 74-66 loss to Georgetown as a two-point ‘dog on a neutral court in Anaheim, Calif.).
The only recent battle between these schools came in November 2007, with the Aggies winning 77-63 as a 4½-point favorite at Madison Square Garden in New York.
Texas A&M is on ATS upticks of 16-7 overall, 37-16 on the road, 13-5 against winning teams and 9-4 when coming off a spread-cover. Washington is on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 at home 1-4 against the Big 12, 1-6 against winning teams and 0-4 after both a SU and ATS victory. However, the Huskies have cashed in four straight Tuesday contests.
The Aggies carry “under” trends of 5-2 overall and 9-2-1 on Tuesday, and Washington has stayed low in four of five on Tuesday and 16 of 23 against non-league competition. However, the Huskies are on “over” runs of 20-6 overall, 13-4 at home, 19-7 after a SU win and 11-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS A&M
NBA
Portland (17-12, 14-14-1 ATS) at Dallas (20-8, 15-13 ATS)
The Blazers continue a tough four-game road trip against playoff-caliber opponents when they visit American Airlines Center for a battle with the red-hot Mavericks.
Portland followed up Saturday’s 92-83 loss at Orlando as an 8½-point underdog with Sunday’s 102-95 upset victory at Miami as a five-point pup. The Blazers have won three of their last four (2-1-1 ATS), but since starting out 8-3 SU, they’ve played inconsistent basketball, splitting their last 18 contests while going 6-11-1 ATS. During this 18-game stretch, Nate McMillan’s team is just 2-7 on the highway (3-6 ATS).
With leading scorer Dirk Nowitzki out because of an elbow injury, Dallas still got past LeBron James and the Cavaliers on Sunday, winning 102-95 as a 3½-point home underdog. The Mavericks have won six of their last seven games, and they’re on a 14-5 SU roll going back to mid-November. On the down side, since cashing in nine of their first 12 contests, Dallas is in a 6-10 ATS freefall. Also, Sunday’s upset win over Cleveland snapped the team’s 0-8 ATS drought at home.
The underdog has covered in eight of Dallas’ last 12 games overall and each of its last nine at home. Also, the Mavericks have had back-to-back spread-covers just once in their last 16 games (and none in the last 12), while the Blazers have cashed in consecutive contests just twice in their last 18 contests.
The Mavericks swept the season series from Portland last year, going 3-0 ATS, though all three games were decided by a total of 17 points. The home team has won seven of the last nine in this rivalry, the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head clashes. The SU winner has covered in each of the last five meetings.
In addition to their ATS ruts of 6-11-1 overall and 3-6 on the road, the Trail Blazers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five against Western Conference opponents. Dallas’ ATS funks include 1-8 at home, 1-4 against the Western Conference and 1-4 when coming off a spread-cover, but the Mavericks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 versus opponents with a winning record.
This has been a low-scoring rivalry of late, with 13 of the last 18 meetings overall and eight of the last nine in Dallas staying under the total. Additionally, the under is on runs of 4-1 for the Mavs against Western Conference opponents, 4-1 for the Mavericks on Tuesday, 13-4 for Portland against winning teams, 9-2 for Portland versus Southwest Division opponents and 5-1 for Portland on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Oklahoma City (13-13, 15-11 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (22-4, 12-14 ATS)
The Lakers look to extend an 11-game winning streak against the Thunder franchise when they return home to the Staples Center after a successful five-game road trip.
Oklahoma City has been idle since Saturday, when it fell 95-90 at Houston as a 3½-point underdog. The Thunder have lost four of their last five (2-3 ATS) – averaging just 93.4 points per game in the process – and the slump follows a 5-2 SU and ATS run. Now 26 games into the 2009-10 campaign, Oklahoma City hasn’t had consecutive non-covers all season, nor has it cashed in more than two games in a row all season. Also, the SU winner is 24-2 ATS in Thunder games this year.
Los Angeles’ longest road swing to date this season began with a 102-94 loss at Utah as a two-point underdog – a defeat that snapped the team’s 11-game winning streak. But the Lakers closed the journey by ripping off four straight wins in Chicago, Milwaukee, New Jersey and Detroit. The latter two results were Saturday’s 103-84 victory over the lowly Nets as a 12½-point favorite and Sunday’s 93-81 win over the Pistons as a 7½-point chalk. Those spread-covers ended an 0-4 ATS slide for Phil Jackson’s club.
Going back to their days as the Seattle SuperSonics, the Thunder franchise has lost 11 in a row to Los Angeles, including two defeats last month. On Nov. 3, L.A. went to Oklahoma City and pulled out a 101-98 overtime victory, failing as a seven-point road chalk, then scored a 101-85 win on Nov. 22, easily covering as a 10½-point favorite.
The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings (all as favorite) with Oklahoma City after failing to cover in the previous four clashes (all as a favorite). Conversely, despite coming up short in their first trip to Hollywood this year, the Thunder are still 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 visits to the Staples Center.
Oklahoma City is on pointspread surges of 35-16 after a SU defeat, 26-9 after a non-cover (including 10-0 this year), 16-5 on Tuesday and 4-0 after two days of rest. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six on Tuesday, but they’ve cashed in nine of 13 after a spread-cover and four of five following a road trip of seven or more days.
These teams have stayed under the total in four of their last five meetings overall and four of their last five tussles in Los Angeles. Furthermore, the Lakers are on “under” runs of 7-1 overall, 5-2-1 at home, 6-1 after a SU win, 4-0 against Western Conference opponents and 5-0 against the Northwest Division, and the under is 5-1-1 in Oklahoma City’s last seven overall, 4-1 in its last five on the highway, 6-0 in its last six Western Conference contests and 3-1-1 in its last five against the Pacific Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY and UNDER
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