Norms clubhouse
November 4, 2014
NBA
No games last night.....Season record: 5-3
Toronto -9 OKC
Miami -2 Houston
FOOTBALL
NORM'S LATE THOUGHTS: Toledo's had major trouble covering big spreads this year and finds itself laying two touchdowns at Kent State. But these Golden Flashes at 1-7 may be just the cure-all the Rockets need. Kent is 1-7, has scored over 17 points just once this season ( a stunning 39-17 pounding of Army which they followed up the next week by scoring 3 points) and they call proudly say they are the worst defense in the often-defenseless MAC. ok for the Rockets to establish superiority here and get a pretty easy win. So:
Take Toledo -14 Kent St.
November 4, 2014
NBA
No games last night.....Season record: 5-3
Toronto -9 OKC
Miami -2 Houston
FOOTBALL
NORM'S LATE THOUGHTS: Toledo's had major trouble covering big spreads this year and finds itself laying two touchdowns at Kent State. But these Golden Flashes at 1-7 may be just the cure-all the Rockets need. Kent is 1-7, has scored over 17 points just once this season ( a stunning 39-17 pounding of Army which they followed up the next week by scoring 3 points) and they call proudly say they are the worst defense in the often-defenseless MAC. ok for the Rockets to establish superiority here and get a pretty easy win. So:
Take Toledo -14 Kent St.
VegasButcher
Washington Wizards -1.5
This one opened -2 NYK, and now has moved a full 3 points. Seems like bettors aren’t impressed with New York’s 2-1 start. They got creamed by the Bulls in the opening game of the season, beat CLE on the road in a very emotional game for the Cavs (LeBron’s 1st game back home), and then struggled with a Charlotte squad that was playing on a b2b after a tough home loss against the Wizards the night before. The Knicks rank 27th in DefEff and 25th in eFG% against, while allowing 75% FG% at the rim, the 4th worst mark in the league. I’d expect a lot of P&R sets for the Wizards in the half-court, to take advantage of the slow-footed Knicks defense
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5
The Pacers continue to play without West, Hill, and Watson, but they could also be without Stuckey tonight. Milwaukee has Sanders and Henson, who can match up with Hibbert, and they also have pretty solid depth. They rank 5th in DefEff and 10th in eFG% allowed, so defensively this team has played well. Their issue are turnovers on the offensive end, as they rank dead-last in TO%. Indiana though doesn’t force many TO’s defensively (27th in Def TO-rate). Milwaukee should have won @ Charlotte (lead by 7.9 points throughout that one) in their first road game of the year and I think they’ll have a good chance tonight as well. As of right now, they’re a better team from my perspective.
Portland Trail Blazers +2.5
The Cavs lost to NYK at home and then needed OT to squeak by Chicago on the road, after Rose and Gibson got hurt. Nobody said ‘it will be easy’ as it’s going to take some time for this team to jell. By comparison, Portland is coming off two straight losses, one being at home. Portland lost to Sacramento which ranks 7th in Def-Eff (#5 in eFG%-a) and Golden State which is #1 in Def-Eff (#2 in eFG%-a). By comparison, Cleveland ranks 22nd in Def-Eff and 26th in eFG%-a. In addition, their offensive eFG% is only 45.4%, which ranks 25th in the league. I know the sample-size is very small (2 games only), but my point here is that this Cavs team is not functioning ‘on all cylinders’ just yet, and it will truly take some time to get all the pieces to fit together. Portland, has had their ‘pieces’ together for a while now. They don’t need to learn to play with one another, they just need to play better. Being at home (31-10 @ 76% win-rate last year) and facing a sub-par defense should help. In addition, let’s look at this number. Against GSW, Portland was a -3.5 home favorite. Now against the Cavs, they are +2.5 home underdogs. Is Cleveland really 6 points better than the Dubs, which some people believe is the best team in the West? If you can answer that question, then you should be able to tell if there is some line-value or not in this game.
Washington Wizards -1.5
This one opened -2 NYK, and now has moved a full 3 points. Seems like bettors aren’t impressed with New York’s 2-1 start. They got creamed by the Bulls in the opening game of the season, beat CLE on the road in a very emotional game for the Cavs (LeBron’s 1st game back home), and then struggled with a Charlotte squad that was playing on a b2b after a tough home loss against the Wizards the night before. The Knicks rank 27th in DefEff and 25th in eFG% against, while allowing 75% FG% at the rim, the 4th worst mark in the league. I’d expect a lot of P&R sets for the Wizards in the half-court, to take advantage of the slow-footed Knicks defense
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5
The Pacers continue to play without West, Hill, and Watson, but they could also be without Stuckey tonight. Milwaukee has Sanders and Henson, who can match up with Hibbert, and they also have pretty solid depth. They rank 5th in DefEff and 10th in eFG% allowed, so defensively this team has played well. Their issue are turnovers on the offensive end, as they rank dead-last in TO%. Indiana though doesn’t force many TO’s defensively (27th in Def TO-rate). Milwaukee should have won @ Charlotte (lead by 7.9 points throughout that one) in their first road game of the year and I think they’ll have a good chance tonight as well. As of right now, they’re a better team from my perspective.
Portland Trail Blazers +2.5
The Cavs lost to NYK at home and then needed OT to squeak by Chicago on the road, after Rose and Gibson got hurt. Nobody said ‘it will be easy’ as it’s going to take some time for this team to jell. By comparison, Portland is coming off two straight losses, one being at home. Portland lost to Sacramento which ranks 7th in Def-Eff (#5 in eFG%-a) and Golden State which is #1 in Def-Eff (#2 in eFG%-a). By comparison, Cleveland ranks 22nd in Def-Eff and 26th in eFG%-a. In addition, their offensive eFG% is only 45.4%, which ranks 25th in the league. I know the sample-size is very small (2 games only), but my point here is that this Cavs team is not functioning ‘on all cylinders’ just yet, and it will truly take some time to get all the pieces to fit together. Portland, has had their ‘pieces’ together for a while now. They don’t need to learn to play with one another, they just need to play better. Being at home (31-10 @ 76% win-rate last year) and facing a sub-par defense should help. In addition, let’s look at this number. Against GSW, Portland was a -3.5 home favorite. Now against the Cavs, they are +2.5 home underdogs. Is Cleveland really 6 points better than the Dubs, which some people believe is the best team in the West? If you can answer that question, then you should be able to tell if there is some line-value or not in this game.
ANDRE GOMES
NBA Pick: 703 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 704 Toronto Raptors
Rating: 3 units – Single Dime Play
Pick: Under 194 (Play up to 192)
Odds: -105 / 1.95
Oklahoma City is on a bad physical spot tonight, with a bunch of injured players and without Durant and Westbrook, they naturally lack a scoring punch. The Thunder dished 14 assists against a Nets defense that isn’t an elite defense and I guess this says it all. So, the key in here will be to understand the match up between Toronto’s offense and Oklahoma City’s defense. The game yesterday between Brooklyn and Oklahoma City went over the total posted because Brooklyn had an offensive explosion due to a great outside shooting night. However, that’s unlikely to happen tonight because Toronto’s offense is struggling at the moment with poor ball movement, with just 13 and 11 assists on their last two games.
The Raptors have been able to score via free throws and offensive rebounds. However, if there is something with quality that Oklahoma City still has, that’s their frontcourt with Ibaka, Adams and Perkins. Therefore, I expect the Thunder to have a solid interior defense game, while the Raptors’ perimeter game won’t be at all as explosive as Brooklyn was last night. I see this game being a low scoring affair and so, I’ll take the Under in here.
NBA Pick: 703 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 704 Toronto Raptors
Rating: 3 units – Single Dime Play
Pick: Under 194 (Play up to 192)
Odds: -105 / 1.95
Oklahoma City is on a bad physical spot tonight, with a bunch of injured players and without Durant and Westbrook, they naturally lack a scoring punch. The Thunder dished 14 assists against a Nets defense that isn’t an elite defense and I guess this says it all. So, the key in here will be to understand the match up between Toronto’s offense and Oklahoma City’s defense. The game yesterday between Brooklyn and Oklahoma City went over the total posted because Brooklyn had an offensive explosion due to a great outside shooting night. However, that’s unlikely to happen tonight because Toronto’s offense is struggling at the moment with poor ball movement, with just 13 and 11 assists on their last two games.
The Raptors have been able to score via free throws and offensive rebounds. However, if there is something with quality that Oklahoma City still has, that’s their frontcourt with Ibaka, Adams and Perkins. Therefore, I expect the Thunder to have a solid interior defense game, while the Raptors’ perimeter game won’t be at all as explosive as Brooklyn was last night. I see this game being a low scoring affair and so, I’ll take the Under in here.
