The Sports Advisors
Northern Illinois (5-5, 5-4 ATS) at Kent State (3-7, 3-6 ATS)
Fresh off a pair of losses that killed any hope of competing for the Mid-American Conference championship, Northern Illinois will try to at least get back over .500 when it travels to Kent State for a MAC clash.
The Huskies began November on a 5-1 run, but they’ve had the rug pulled out from under them the last two Wednesdays. On Nov. 5, they went to No. 16 Ball State and got crushed 45-14 as an eight-point road underdog, and then last week Northern Illinois rallied from a 30-6 second-half deficit against Central Michigan to force overtime, only to lose 33-30 as a four-point home chalk. The Huskies’ defense got gashed in both defeats, giving up 529 total yards (219 rushing) to Ball State and 430 yards (241 rushing) to Central Michigan.
Kent State played a back-and-forth home game against Temple on Wednesday, eventually prevailing 38-31 as a one-point favorite. The Golden Flashes finished with a 561-354 yard edge in total offense, including a whopping 329-72 advantage on the ground and forced four turnovers, but committed three themselves, and they also got burned on a 92-yard kickoff return for a score.
Northern Illinois is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, including last year’s 27-20 home victory as a 3½-point underdog, as the piled up a season-high 235 rushing yards. The host has cashed in four of the five meetings between these schools, the only exception being in the Huskies’ last visit to Kent in 2005 when they rolled 34-3 as a 10½-point chalk.
Northern Illinois started the season on a 4-0 ATS run, but is 1-4 ATS since (all against MAC foes), including 0-3 ATS in its last three and 1-3 ATS as a favorite. However, the Huskies are 5-1 ATS on the highway going back to the end of last season (4-1 ATS this year), the lone non-cover coming at Ball State. Additionally, the Huskies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 November contests and 5-2 ATS in their last seven against losing teams.
Kent has followed up a four-game losing skid by going 2-1 SU and ATS in its last three, putting up averages of 41.7 points and 502.3 yards during this stretch. Also, the SU winner is 8-1 ATS in the team’s nine lined games this season. However, the Golden Flashes are mired in pointspread slumps of 7-19 overall, 2-8 at home, 4-13 against MAC rivals, 1-5 in November, 2-7 on artificial turf and 0-6 after both a SU win and an ATS triumph.
For the Huskies, the under is on stretches of 20-7-1 overall, 11-5 on the highway, 14-4-1 in league play, 7-2 in November and 4-0-1 against losing teams. Conversely, Kent is on over streaks of 6-1 overall and 5-1 in MAC play, but the under is 8-3 in the teams last 11 November outings. Finally, the last three battles between these squads have stayed under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHERN ILLINOIS and UNDER
NBA
Toronto (5-4 SU and ATS) at Orlando (7-3, 5-5 ATS)
The red-hot Magic return home after a perfect 3-0 road trip, and they’ll look to win their fourth in a row when they take on the Raptors in a rematch of last spring’s opening-round playoff series.
Orlando began their journey with a 17-point blowout win at Oklahoma City, then escaped with narrow victories over Dallas (102-100) and Charlotte (90-85). In Sunday’s win over the Bobcats, the Magic came up just short as a 6½-point road favorite. After opening the season with consecutive losses, Orlando has won seven of its last eight (5-3 ATS), scoring at least 90 points in each contest.
Toronto halted a two-game slide with Sunday’s 107-98 rout of the Heat as a three-point home chalk. The Raptors started out 3-0 (1-2 ATS), but have since gone 2-4 (3-3 ATS). On the bright side, they’ve cashed in four of their first five road games this year, and they’re 3-0 ATS as an underdog.
Orlando eliminated the Raptors in five games in last year’s first round of the playoffs, going 3-2 ATS. Including three regular-season meetings, the Magic were 6-2 (5-3 ATS) against Toronto in 2007-08, and the home team (and the favorite) won six of the final seven clashes (playoffs included), going 5-2 ATS.
In addition to its 4-1 ATS road record this year, Toronto is 40-19-2 ATS in its last 61 games against the Southeast Division, but otherwise the franchise is in the midst of ATS nosedives of 3-9 after a SU win, 1-4 after a spread-cover and 6-20 when playing on one day of rest. Meanwhile, Orlando is on pointspread streaks of 7-3 against the Atlantic Division, 9-3-1 when play on Tuesday and 35-16-1 when coming off a non-cover.
For the Magic, the under is on runs of 20-9 overall, 5-2 at home, 20-6 against the Eastern Conference, 4-0 versus Atlantic Division squads and 22-7 against winning teams. For Toronto, the under streaks include 5-1 on the road, 13-6-1 against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 after a SU win. Finally, last year’s final three playoff meetings between these teams stayed low after the over had been on a 5-1 run in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
New York (6-4, 5-5 ATS) at Boston (9-2, 4-7 ATS)
The surprising Knicks pay a visit to the defending NBA champs, but they won’t have to deal with Celtics All-Star forward Kevin Garnett, who has been suspended for this contest.
Garnett was punished by the league Monday for hitting Milwaukee’s Andrew Bogut in the face in Saturday’s 102-97 overtime win at Milwaukee. Although Paul Pierce (28 points, seven rebounds, six assists) and Ray Allen (27 points) had huge games against the Bucks, Garnett managed just 15 points and seven rebounds before fouling out. Boston failed to cash as an 8½-point road chalk, the team’s fourth consecutive non-cover.
Boston is unbeaten in five home games, but the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last four on their own floor, and they’re defeating their visitors by an average of just five points per game (95-90).
New York is coming off Sunday’s tough 124-114 overtime loss to the Mavericks as a two-point home underdog. The Knicks have averaged 117.3 ppg in their last three outings, but they got outscored 12-2 in the extra session against Dallas. Still, New York is on runs of 5-2 SU and 4-2 ATS, and Mike D’Antoni’s troops are 2-2 SU and ATS on the road.
The Celtics have beaten New York six straight times (5-0-1 ATS) going back to December 2006, and they toyed with the Knickerbockers last year, posting four wins by an average margin of 18.8 ppg. That includes a humiliating 104-59 win as a 12½-point favorite in the first meeting at TD Banknorth Garden last November. The Knicks are just 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 matchups with the Celtics, including 2-5-1 ATS in the last eight trips to Boston. However, the visitor is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 clashes.
Despite their recent pointspread downturn, the Celtics are still on positive ATS runs of 20-7-2 inside the Atlantic Division, 10-3 versus winning teams, 4-0 when playing on two days’ rest and 4-1 on Tuesdays. New York is 5-2 ATS in its last seven Tuesday contests, but 4-12 ATS in its last 16 after a non-cover, 1-4 ATS in its last five against division rivals and 0-4 ATS in its last four following a double-digit home loss.
For the Knicks, the over is on stretches of 29-14 overall, 9-3 on the road, 8-3 after a double-digit home setback and 5-2 on Tuesdays. On the flip side, the under is 4-1 in Boston’s last five against divisional rivals and 6-2 in its last eight after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON