Steve Merril - Steve's Screenshot (CFB) (Tuesday 11/17)
Tuesday, Nov. 17
NCAA Football
Toledo at Bowling Green (-7, 73) (6 pm ET, espn2)
Toledo is 8-1 SU on the season, and they’ve played excellent football on both sides of the ball. The Rockets are averaging 34.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play. However, they’ve played a weak slate of opposing defenses that allow 30.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. Tonight they will face a Bowling Green defense that is a tad better at 27.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.
Overall this season, Toldeo’s defense has been outstanding. The Rockets only allow 18.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.
Bowling Green has won seven straight games while going 6-1 ATS. The Falcons have been steamrolling opponents, and in fact, their last five wins have come by a combined score of 272-99. Bowling Green is averaging 45.4 points per game on 7.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 28 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.
Tuesday, Nov. 17
NCAA Football
Toledo at Bowling Green (-7, 73) (6 pm ET, espn2)
Toledo is 8-1 SU on the season, and they’ve played excellent football on both sides of the ball. The Rockets are averaging 34.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play. However, they’ve played a weak slate of opposing defenses that allow 30.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. Tonight they will face a Bowling Green defense that is a tad better at 27.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.
Overall this season, Toldeo’s defense has been outstanding. The Rockets only allow 18.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.
Bowling Green has won seven straight games while going 6-1 ATS. The Falcons have been steamrolling opponents, and in fact, their last five wins have come by a combined score of 272-99. Bowling Green is averaging 45.4 points per game on 7.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 28 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.
Dr. Bob
[h=3]***NOTRE DAME (-14 ½) over Milwaukee[/h]04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 730
My ratings favor Notre Dame by 18 points and the Irish apply to a 239-121-11 ATS non-conference home favorite situation tonight. The Irish should score at will against a Milwaukee defense that gave up 47% shooting to 3 bad teams over the weekend (Denver, Lipscomb, and Santa Clara). I’ll take Notre Dame in a 3-Star Best Bet at -16 or less and for 2-Stars up to -17.
[h=3]**LASALLE (-3 ½) over Rider[/h]04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 758
LaSalle and Rider are both coming off spread losses in their opening game, with LaSalle winning by 2 as a 5 ½ point home favorite against Towson and Rider losing by 8 as a 1 point home dog to Princeton. LaSalle should play better tonight given that the Explorers apply to a 105-38-1 ATS early season situation that is 11-0 ATS if the team is coming off a spread loss. My ratings favor the LaSalle by 4 ½ points and I’ll take LaSalle in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less.
[h=3]**LOUISIANA TECH (-6) over Texas Arlington[/h]04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 742
The line on this game opened at -10 and has dropped significantly, most likely due to a few players being out for Louisiana Tech. The opening line would be fair if the Bulldogs were at full strength, as my pre-season ratings would favor Louisiana Tech by 9 ½. The line adjustment is probably a little overblown for Boykins, Luckett, and White still being out, as my adjusted ratings favor the Bulldogs by 7 points. Louisiana Tech applies to a very good 112-42 ATS early season situation and the line is now fair so I’ll take Louisiana Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less and for 1-Star at -7 ½ points.
[h=3]**Wisconsin (-24 ½) over North Dakota[/h]05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 764
I had Wisconsin rated lower than the polls coming into the season but there is now value on the Badgers after they lost their opening game straight up as a 25 point favorite to Western Illinois. Wisky bounced back with a 27 point win as a 15 point favorite against Siena (my ratings had them by 20 in that game) and there is still some value, as my ratings favor the Badgers by 26 points in this game. Wisky also applies to a 239-121-11 ATS non-conference home situation and I’ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at-26 points or less and for 1-Star up to -27 points.
[h=3]***Denver (+6 ½) over NEW ORLEANS[/h]05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 711
New Orleans was supposed to be a good team this season and that belief is still being factored into the odds. How else could you explain a 1-9 teams being favored by this many points over a 5-5 team? I know Denver is not really as good as their 5-5 record, as I rate the Nuggets at 4 points worse than average, but New Orleans has been 6.4 points worse than average in the 8 games that Anthony Davis has played. I actually rate the Pelicans at -3.7 points because I do think they should improve defensively but I get a fair line of New Orleans by 2 ½ points and there is certainly no way to justify New Orleans being favored by 6 or 6 ½ points. People have been waiting all season for the Pelicans to start playing well and it’s simply not happening. After covering a couple in a row the Pels were beaten by 19 in Toronto and by 8 points at New York and bad teams on a 3 game losing streak are not trustworthy as home favorites. In fact, teams with a win percentage of .333 or less (after 8 or more games) are just 74-130-5 ATS as home favorites of more than 1 point against a rested opponent (i.e. didn’t play the previous day) with a better season winning percentage. A 14-50-2 ATS subset of that angle applies to the Pelicans tonight and it certainly makes sense that bad teams on a losing streak should not be favored over better teams that are rested. I’ll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +5 points.
[h=3]***VILLANOVA (-17) over Nebraska[/h]05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 746
Villanova applies to a 112-42 ATS early season situation and the Wildcats tend to beat up on inferior teams (24-5-1 ATS when favored by 11 points or more the last few years). My ratings favor Nova by 17 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Villanova in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -18 points (1-Star up to -19).
[h=3]***NOTRE DAME (-14 ½) over Milwaukee[/h]04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 730
My ratings favor Notre Dame by 18 points and the Irish apply to a 239-121-11 ATS non-conference home favorite situation tonight. The Irish should score at will against a Milwaukee defense that gave up 47% shooting to 3 bad teams over the weekend (Denver, Lipscomb, and Santa Clara). I’ll take Notre Dame in a 3-Star Best Bet at -16 or less and for 2-Stars up to -17.
[h=3]**LASALLE (-3 ½) over Rider[/h]04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 758
LaSalle and Rider are both coming off spread losses in their opening game, with LaSalle winning by 2 as a 5 ½ point home favorite against Towson and Rider losing by 8 as a 1 point home dog to Princeton. LaSalle should play better tonight given that the Explorers apply to a 105-38-1 ATS early season situation that is 11-0 ATS if the team is coming off a spread loss. My ratings favor the LaSalle by 4 ½ points and I’ll take LaSalle in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less.
[h=3]**LOUISIANA TECH (-6) over Texas Arlington[/h]04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 742
The line on this game opened at -10 and has dropped significantly, most likely due to a few players being out for Louisiana Tech. The opening line would be fair if the Bulldogs were at full strength, as my pre-season ratings would favor Louisiana Tech by 9 ½. The line adjustment is probably a little overblown for Boykins, Luckett, and White still being out, as my adjusted ratings favor the Bulldogs by 7 points. Louisiana Tech applies to a very good 112-42 ATS early season situation and the line is now fair so I’ll take Louisiana Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less and for 1-Star at -7 ½ points.
[h=3]**Wisconsin (-24 ½) over North Dakota[/h]05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 764
I had Wisconsin rated lower than the polls coming into the season but there is now value on the Badgers after they lost their opening game straight up as a 25 point favorite to Western Illinois. Wisky bounced back with a 27 point win as a 15 point favorite against Siena (my ratings had them by 20 in that game) and there is still some value, as my ratings favor the Badgers by 26 points in this game. Wisky also applies to a 239-121-11 ATS non-conference home situation and I’ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at-26 points or less and for 1-Star up to -27 points.
[h=3]***Denver (+6 ½) over NEW ORLEANS[/h]05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 711
New Orleans was supposed to be a good team this season and that belief is still being factored into the odds. How else could you explain a 1-9 teams being favored by this many points over a 5-5 team? I know Denver is not really as good as their 5-5 record, as I rate the Nuggets at 4 points worse than average, but New Orleans has been 6.4 points worse than average in the 8 games that Anthony Davis has played. I actually rate the Pelicans at -3.7 points because I do think they should improve defensively but I get a fair line of New Orleans by 2 ½ points and there is certainly no way to justify New Orleans being favored by 6 or 6 ½ points. People have been waiting all season for the Pelicans to start playing well and it’s simply not happening. After covering a couple in a row the Pels were beaten by 19 in Toronto and by 8 points at New York and bad teams on a 3 game losing streak are not trustworthy as home favorites. In fact, teams with a win percentage of .333 or less (after 8 or more games) are just 74-130-5 ATS as home favorites of more than 1 point against a rested opponent (i.e. didn’t play the previous day) with a better season winning percentage. A 14-50-2 ATS subset of that angle applies to the Pelicans tonight and it certainly makes sense that bad teams on a losing streak should not be favored over better teams that are rested. I’ll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +5 points.
[h=3]***VILLANOVA (-17) over Nebraska[/h]05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 746
Villanova applies to a 112-42 ATS early season situation and the Wildcats tend to beat up on inferior teams (24-5-1 ATS when favored by 11 points or more the last few years). My ratings favor Nova by 17 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Villanova in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -18 points (1-Star up to -19).
