SPORTS ADVISORS
Troy (2-2, 2-1 ATS) at Florida Atlantic (1-4, 3-2 ATS)
Florida Atlantic will try to bounce back from last week’s crushing last-second loss to Middle Tennessee State when it returns home for another Sun Belt Conference showdown, this one against Troy.
After settling for a 25-yard field goal with 1:15 to play to take a 13-7 lead at Middle Tennessee a week ago tonight, the Owls let the Blue Raiders march down the field and complete a 32-yard touchdown pass as time expired to tie the game, with the ensuing extra-point sending Florida Atlantic to a 14-13 loss. The Owls finished with a 363-323 edge in total offense, including 153-55 on the ground, but it wasn’t enough for Howard Schnellenberger’s squad to avoid its third straight defeat.
Florida Atlantic did get the cash as 2½-poit road underdog last week, improving to 6-2 ATS in its last eight games (3-1 ATS in the last four).
Troy is coming off consecutive blowout road losses to BCS schools Ohio State (28-10) and Oklahoma State (55-24). The Trojans got the cash as a 21-point underdog at Ohio State and even outgained the Buckeyes (315-309), but they failed to cover as a 17½-point pup against Oklahoma State, which had a whopping 612-416 yard edge in total offense, including 358-144 on the ground.
Troy won the first three meetings of this rivalry from 2002-06, going 3-0 ATS in lined contests. However, with the Sun Belt championship on the line in the regular-season finale for both teams last year, Florida Atlantic turned the tables on the Trojans, prevailing 38-32 as a 16-point road underdog. The teams combined for 878 yards of total offense, including 446 for the Trojans.
In addition to their current 6-2 ATS run, Florida Atlantic is on pointspread streaks of 5-2 at home, 8-2 in Sun Belt action, 7-2 after a SU loss and 5-1 in October. Meanwhile, Troy sports a bevy of positive ATS runs, including 13-4 overall, 4-1 on the road, 8-2 in conference play, 7-1 against losing teams and 4-0 after a non-cover. In fact, the Trojans haven’t had consecutive ATS setbacks since October 2006, a span of 22 contests.
All three lined meetings between these schools have gone over the total. Also, the over is 5-0 in FAU’s last five at home and 5-1 in its last six Sun Belt games. However, the over is on runs of 4-1 for the Owls overall, 7-3 for the Trojans overall, 6-1 for the Trojans in conference and 4-0 for the Trojans in October.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TROY