Larry Ness' 15* Western Conf Game of the Week-NBA
My 15* play is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET. The Spurs have fought back from a slow start and injuries to Ginobili and Parker to have the West's second-best record but San Antonio was out-classed by the Lakers in LA on Sunday, losing 99-85. Sunday's game began a brutal stretch for the Spurs, who will play in Phoenix on Thursday, then return home for a game with the Hornets on Saturday before embarking on an eight-game road trip. The "Big Three" is still intact (and playing well) but the Spurs no longer have the quality depth that made them so tough. Mason (11.7) and the 6-10 Bonner (7.9-4.7) have been very good from beyond the arc (Mason makes 44.0 percent of his threes and Bonner an amazing 51.7 percent) but I predict the Spurs will struggle on this trip. The Jazz remain without Boozer (20.5-11.7) and Kirilenko (12.7-5.8-3.1) has missed the last three games with an ankle injury (he's listed as doubtful tonight). However, through all its troubles, the Jazz remain a tough team here at home (17-5), despite everything. Utah enters on a three-game losing streak, including a Saturday home loss to the Cavs, when LeBron had 33 and Mo Williams 25. However, the Jazz have won four straight regular season meetings here in Utah against the Spurs, holding them to an average of 80.8 PPG. The Jazz have to be embarrassed by their Nov 21 effort (if one could call it that?) in San Antonio, where the Spurs won 119-94. Expect Okur (17.1-8.2), Williams (16.8-10.1 APG) and Millsap (15.6-9.7) to lead the Jazz to a solid win tonight. Millsap in particular, should be watched. The PF from La Tech has made the most of Boozer's absence, posting 19 consecutive double-doubles before getting hurt in a Jan 10 game with Detroit. He sat out the next three games and returned vs Dallas on Jan 17, playing 21 minutes (four points / three rebounds). However, he's back 100 percent now, averaging 21.0 PPG and 13.0 RPG in his last four games. The Jazz have struggled defensively in their three game slide, allowing 109.0 PPG but the team hasn't lost four straight since December 2007 and remember, owns four straight regular season home wins over the Spurs, holding them to 80.8 PPG. Western Conf Game of the Week 15* Ut Jazz.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB (75% run since mid-Jan!)
My Oddsmaker's Error play is on Wisconsin at 9:00 ET. The Boilermakers are now resembling the team that was tabbed in the preseason as the Big 10's favorite. Matt Painter had that outstanding freshman class last year and now sophomores, guard Moore (14.0-4.7), the 6-8 Hummel (13.2-7.9) and the 6-10 Johnson (12.8-5.7) lead the way for a Purdue team which is currently ranked No. 16 with a 15-4 record. Hummel is suffering from back spasms (he has come off the bench in two of the last four games), while Johnson has been the team's best player during Purdue's current four-game winning streak, averaging 15.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG and 3.5 blocks. As for Wisconsin, Bo Ryan entered this year with a 173-60 mark in seven years at Madison, winning 30 and 31 games the last two years. The only other schools to have won 30 games or more in each of the last two seasons are Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA, putting the Badgers in some fairly elite company. The 6-11 Butch (12.4-6.0) may not have been very athletic but he's been missed, as had guard Flowers (9.6-3.9-2.7). Wisconsin enters this game 12-7 (3-4 in the Big 10) and on a four-game losing streak, looking to avoid its first five-game slide in more than a decade. Wisconsin's recent problems have been its inability to shoot well from beyond the three-point line. Wisconsin is shooting 25.6 percent from three-point range in its last four games with Trevon Hughes (12.2) having the most trouble. Hughes was 49.2 percent three-point shooter on the season prior to the team's four-game slide (which began with a loss at Purdue) but has made 21.7 percent (5-of-23) from beyond the line since. Bohannon (10.9) and 6-7 swingman Krabbenhoft (9.6-3.9-2.7) join Hughes in the starting lineup, while the 6-7 Landry (13.1-4.2) and the 6-10 Leuer (9.4.4.3) start inside. Purdue had little problem with the Badgers back in West Lafayette on Jan 11, winning 65-52 as Johnson had 20 points and 10 rebounds while Hummel added 16 points. However, let's not forget how strong a home team Wisconsin has been under Ryan, especially vs Big 10 foes. The Boilermakers won in Madison last year 72-67, ending Wisconsin's 16-game home conference winning streak. The victory also ended an eight-game losing streak for Purdue in Madison. Expect the Badgers to begin a new home winning streak against the Boilermakers in this one. Oddsmaker's Error on Wisconsin.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry's Weekly Wipeout Winner-CBB (won 2 of L3)
My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on George Mason at 7:00 ET. Jim Larranaga famously led his Patriots to the Final 4 in 2006, just missed getting back to the NCAAs the following year (lost in the CAA tourney final) and last season was back in the "Big Dance." The Patriots enter this game 14-5 overall and 7-2 in CAA play, which leaves them a game behind VCU and Northeastern (both 8-1). Gone from LY's team are the 6-7 Thomas (16.1-10.4) and swingman Campbell (15.6-4.5-3.3), who were both significant contributors on that Final 4 team. However, the Patriots still have a veteran team this year. The 6-7 Monroe (10.2-8.6) missed all of LY with an injury but has returned to fill Thomas' spot inside. The 6-7 Birdsong (7.5-3.1) and 6-6 freshman Pearson (7.3-4.3) are the team's other major inside contributors. The perimeter game misses Campbell but vets Long (12.,3-4.4-3.5), Vaughan (11.6-3.8) and Smith (8.6) plus super-quick freshman Cornelius (6.3) form a deep and very good backcourt. Delaware has four of five starters back from LY's 14-17 (9-9 in the CAA) team but the Blue Hens are heading for a similar season TY. Only the 6-9 Ledsome (5.7-6.2) has any real size and he'll be overmatched vs Monroe and Birdsong. Delaware's perimeter game is very good but it only holds a slight advantage over GMU's quality depth. The 6-6 Egerson (13.9-10.4-2.9) and 6-4 Dawson (15.7-5.4) are the two "big guards," while the 5-11 Carter (16.6-2.6-2.5) and the 5-10 Johnson (9.1) round out a pretty good group. Now here's the rub. George Mason allows just 60.3 PPG (compared to Delaware's 70.8 PPG), while holding opponents to 40.2 percent from the floor (31.1 percent on threes). Delaware shoots just 41.1 percent as a team , including 32.1 percent on threes, so don't expect them to have too much success here in Fairfax. Delaware is 0-4 SU on the CAA road, including a 75-72 loss at 5-16 UNC-Wilmington, so why would anyone expect the Hens to be competitive here at GMU. where the Patriots are 9-0 SU with their average margin of victory coming by 16.3 PPG? Vaughan is out with a concussion but GMU has plenty of depth in the backcourt to overcome is absence. Weekly Wipeout Winner on George Mason.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 15* Revenge Rout-CBB (won two of last three)
My 15* Revenge Rout is on Utah at 10:00 ET. Dave Rose took over a BYU program which had won only nine games and these last three seasons has led the Cougars to 20, 25 and 27 wins. However, the last two seasons have ended with losses to BYU in the MWC championship game (played in Las Vegas) and then first-round losses in the NCAA tourney. BYU was hoping to reverse that trend this year and the Cougars opened 10-0 this season before falling in Phoenix to Arizona State on Dec 20, 76-75 (game-winning tip in at the buzzer was ruled no good!). BYU has had some troubles since then as well, as Wake ended its 53-game home winning streak on Jan 3 plus the Cougars got creamed at New Mexico on Jan 17 (81-62) and lost at home to UNLV on Jan 21, 76-70. The Cougars have two terrific players in the 6-6 Tavernari (17.4-7.1) and the 6-7 Cummard (17.0-6.1-3.4) with sophomore guard Fredette (14.5-4.3 APG) having a very good season as well. However, they have not been able to replace the 6-11 Plaisted (15.6-7.7), as the 6-11 Miles (6.7-3.7) has come nowhere near matching his productivity. The experience and leadership of graduated guards Murdock and Burgess also hurts. Utah comes into this game at 12-7 (compared to BYU's 15-4 mark) but the Utes match up well with Cougars. They own a deep backcourt with seniors Borha (11.1) and Kepay (10.2) plus sophomore Brown (9.9-3.7 APG) and junior Drca (7.9-3.2) round out an excellent perimeter group. Inside, the 7-1 Nevil (17.2-8.4) will be a tough matchup for BYU, while the 6-8 Green (10.4-5.2) and the 6-9 Tillie (3.6-4.9) lend support. Utah was shocked by Southwest Baptist in its home opener (lost 80-79) but since then has won SEVEN of eight home games, losing to only Cal by three points. Two of those seven wins have come over No. 20 Gonzaga and against 15-4 LSU, by 30 points! Utah lost both of its games vs the hated Cougars last year and second-year head coach Jim Boylen will be eager to get a win here over Utah's biggest rival. Despite the play of Tavernari and Cummard, the Cougars are 'ripe for the taking.' Revenge Rout 15* Utah.
Good Luck...Larry
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