SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
ORANGE BOWL
(at Miami, Fla.)
(10) Iowa (10-2, 7-4 ATS) vs. (9) Georgia Tech (11-2, 8-4 ATS)
Two teams in the BCS spotlight for the first time collide when Iowa gets away from the Midwestern chill with a trip to LandShark Stadium to take on the Yellow Jackets.
The Hawkeyes made a stunning run at the Big Ten title, winning their first nine games SU while going 6-2 ATS in lined contests. But Iowa slipped up in a most unlikely spot, losing at home to Northwestern 17-10 as an overwhelming 14-point chalk on Nov. 7 to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. The Hawkeyes followed a week later with a hard-fought 27-24 overtime loss as a huge 16½-point ‘dog at Ohio State, giving the Buckeyes the conference crown and the Rose Bowl berth.
Kirk Ferentz’s troops wrapped up the regular season Nov. 21 with a 12-0 home win over Minnesota, falling just short of cashing as a 12½-point favorite to finish on a 1-2 SU and ATS skid.
After losing at Miami 33-17 as a four-point pup to fall to 2-1 SU (0-2 ATS), Georgia Tech went on an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS) to gain a berth in the ACC championship game. The Jackets lost to in-state rival Georgia, from the SEC, 30-24 as a hefty 9½-point home chalk on Nov. 28 to halt their winning streak. However, they bounced back in the conference title tilt by outlasting Clemson 39-34 laying one point at Tampa Bay’s Raymond James Stadium, finishing the year on a 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS roll.
This Orange Bowl clash marks the first meeting between these two schools.
Iowa is in the postseason for the second straight year and the eighth time in the past nine years. Last January 1, the Hawkeyes rolled over South Carolina 31-10 as a 3½-point favorite in the Outback Bowl, giving them a 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in bowls under Ferentz, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl starts. Iowa also played in the Orange Bowl following the 2002 season, losing to Southern Cal 38-17 as a 4½-point pup.
Georgia Tech is playing in a bowl game for the 13th consecutive year, but the Jackets have gone 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS the past four years in the postseason. Last year, the team’s first under current coach Paul Johnson, Tech was practically playing a home game in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl at the Georgia Dome, but got plastered by LSU 38-3 as a four-point chalk.
The Hawkeyes rode their defense to success this season, allowing just 286.7 total ypg (10th nationally), including a pass defense that yielded just 164.7 ypg, good for ninth in the country. Iowa also rated ninth in scoring defense, at a stifling 15.5 ppg, and forced 29 turnovers (20 INTs, 9 fumbles), though the Hawkeyes finished with just a plus-3 turnover margin. Tyler Sash had six INTs.
Offensively, Iowa was below average in the Football Bowl Subdivision, putting up 330.8 ypg (93rd), including just 109.4 rushing ypg (103rd), while scoring 23.1 ppg (86th). QB Richard Stanzi passed for 2,186 yards and 15 TDs, but he also threw 14 INTs. Wideout Marvin McNutt led the Hawkeyes with seven TD catches and was second in receiving yards (653, 21.8 ypg), just behind Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (687, 16.8 ypg). RBs Adam Robinson (775 yards) and Brandon Wegher (529 yards) combined for 1,304 yards.
The Yellow Jackets’ vaunted triple-option attack averaged a whopping 307.2 rushing ypg, second nationally, for an offense that netted 442.7 total ypg (11th) and 35.3 ppg (13th). QB Josh Nesbitt was the dual threat, passing for 1,689 yards and 10 TDs, with four INTs, and rushing for another 991 yards and a team-leading 16 scores. RB Jonathan Dwyer (1,345 yards, 14 TDs) averaged 6.1 ypc, and RB Anthony Allen (597 yards, 5 TDs) had an eye-popping 9.8 ypc average.
Georgia Tech’s defense finished pretty much middle-of-the-pack in all key categories in the regular season, allowing 357 ypg (53rd), including 206.9 in the air (44th) and 150.1 on the ground (67th), while giving up 24.8 ppg (56th).
The Hawkeyes are on a bundle of pointspread rolls, including 9-4 overall, 36-17 getting points (4-0 this year), 4-1 as a bowl underdog, 4-1 in non-conference action, 6-1 after a non-cover and 10-3 against winning teams. The Yellow Jackets, meanwhile, sport positive ATS streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-1 against winning teams, 6-2 laying points and 6-2 after a SU win, but they are in spread-covering ruts of 1-4 on neutral fields and 2-5 as a bowl favorite.
Iowa is on “under” tears of 23-11-2 overall, 13-3-1 outside the Big Ten, 4-1 against winning teams, 11-3-1 catching points and 16-6-2 following a SU win, and the under for Georgia Tech is on upswings of 4-1-1 after a SU win, 4-1-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a spread-cover. However, the Jackets are on “over” surges of 6-1 in bowl games, 5-1 as a postseason favorite, 6-2-1 outside the ACC and 5-2 at neutral stadiums.
ATS ADVANTAGE: IOWA
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Minnesota (11-3, 8-5 ATS) at (4) Purdue (13-0, 6-6-1 ATS)
Minnesota takes a seven-game winning streak into Mackay Arena, where it looks to end the Boilermakers’ perfect record in a Big Ten clash.
The Golden Gophers closed the non-conference season with five straight blowout wins over inferior foes (32-point average margin of victory), then began Big Ten play with a tough 75-70 home win over Penn State (failing to cover as a 13-point home chalk) and an 86-74 rout of Iowa (cashing as a 10-point favorite). Minnesota is 6-1 ATS during its seven-game winning streak, scoring 86 points or more in six of the games and topping 90 points four times.
Purdue rallied for a 67-56 win over Iowa on Dec. 29 in its Big Ten opener (falling short as a 14½-point road favorite), then came home Friday and pummeled undefeated and sixth-ranked West Virginia 77-62 as a 4½-point chalk in a non-conference game. While Minnesota boasts one of the nation’s top offenses (averaging 80.7 ppg on 48.9 percent shooting), the Boilermakers are stout on defense, holding nine straight opponents to 65 points or less (allowing 57.7 ppg in those games and 59.8 ppg overall on 40 percent shooting).
Purdue has won and covered three straight meetings with Minnesota, including last year’s 70-62 triumph as a one-point road underdog. The home team had gone 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the previous five clashes, and the SU winner is 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 in this rivalry.
Minnesota’s 6-1 ATS surge is offset by pointspread slumps of 5-12 in Big Ten play and 2-10 on the road. The Boilermakers ended an 0-3 ATS slump with Friday’s easy spread-cover against West Virginia, and they’re 5-0-1 ATS in their last six against teams with a winning record, but 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven following a spread-cover.
The Gophers are on “over” runs of 6-1 overall, 4-1 in Big Ten action, 5-1 after a SU win and 14-6-1 on Tuesday, while Purdue carries “over” trends of 5-2 overall and 4-1 at home. Finally, last year’s meeting between these teams barely went over the posted total, ending a 9-0 “under” run in this rivalry (5-0 “under” at Purdue). None of the last 10 meetings have featured more than last year’s 132 points.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(2) Texas (13-0, 7-2 ATS) at Arkansas (7-7, 2-4 ATS)
Texas plays its final tune-up before the start of the Big 12 campaign with a visit to Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark., for a non-conference battle with the mediocre Razorbacks.
The Longhorns survived a surprising scare against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi on Saturday, holding on for a 76-70 win in a non-lined home game. It was the first time all season that Texas failed to win a game by double digits. In fact, the Longhorns have posted 10 wins of 16 points or more, including a 77-59 rout of Rice in their only true road game to this point, though they just missed as an 18½-point chalk in that one. Texas is outscoring opponents by nearly 27 ppg (86.3-59.6) and shooting 49.3 percent while allowing 34.5 percent.
Arkansas has followed up a five-game winning streak (only one of them lined games) with consecutive losses to Baylor (70-47 as a four-point neutral-site ‘dog) and UAB (73-72 as a four-point home pup). The Razorbacks have already suffered four home losses, all against teams from non-power conferences (Morgan State, East Tennessee State, South Alabama and UAB). With the exception of a three-game stretch against non-lined opponents, Arkansas has struggled defensively, allowing 67 points or more in 10 of its other 11 games (76.5 ppg in those 11 contests).
Arkansas upset Texas 67-61 as a 4½-point home underdog exactly one year ago. The other recent meeting was in 2006, and the Longhorns barely held on for an 80-76 win, but the ‘Hogs again cashed as an 8½-point road underdog.
Texas sports ATS runs of 9-2 overall (all in non-conference play) and 21-8-1 on Tuesday, but the Longhorns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against SEC opponents and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine roadies. The Razorbacks are in ATS funks of 2-7 overall, 5-16 versus Big 12 foes, 2-6 against winning teams and 1-4 both after a SU loss and ATS setback.
The over is on runs of 5-2 for Texas on the road, 4-1 for Texas against the SEC, 12-5 for Texas after a SU win and 4-1 for Arkansas at home, though the Razorbacks have stayed low in five of their last seven lined contests overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
(19) New Mexico (14-1, 10-3-1 ATS) at San Diego State (11-3, 6-5 ATS)
Two of the top teams in the Mountain West Conference begin league play against one another, as 19th-ranked New Mexico takes on the Aztecs at Viejas Arena.
The Lobos barely got past Dayton on New Year’s Day, holding on for a 68-66 victory – the team’s 19th straight home win – but coming up way short as an 8½-point favorite. New Mexico has won two in a row since a stunning 75-66 loss at Oral Roberts in a non-lined road game on Dec 23. Steve Alford’s squad has scored 66, 66, and 68 points in three of its last four contests following a 10-game stretch in which it tallied at least 75 points each time out, including more than 80 points nine times.
San Diego State followed up a 55-52 loss at Arizona State as a five-point underdog with a trio of victories at Drake (76-73 in overtime as a 7½-point road favorite), U.C. Riverside (58-53 as a 17-point home chalk) and Pomona-Pitzer (89-54 in a non-lined home game). The Aztecs are 8-1 SU in their last nine games (5-3 ATS in lined action), and they’re 7-0 at home (3-2 ATS), outscoring visitors by 22 ppg (75.6-53.6) and outshooting them 49.8 percent to 35.9 percent.
These squads split their season series last year, with the home team winning each time and New Mexico getting the cash in both contests, including an 81-76 loss in San Diego as a six-point underdog. The Lobos have covered in each of the last three meetings, 10 of the last 13 and six straight in San Diego. Also, the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight battles.
New Mexico failed to cover in four of its final five Mountain West contests last year, but otherwise it is on positive ATS runs of 12-3-1 overall, 4-0 on Tuesday, 9-3-1 after a SU victory and 6-1 against winning opponents. SDSU also struggled in conference down the stretch last year, failing to cover in seven of its last 10, but the Aztecs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 lined home games.
The over is on a 4-1 roll in this rivalry, and New Mexico has topped the total in four straight games on Tuesday. However, San Diego State is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 44-21 overall, 39-12 at home and 9-2 in league games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW MEXICO
NBA
Houston (20-14 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (27-6, 14-19 ATS)
The Lakers, once again surging after three straight victories, look to avenge one of their six defeats when they host the Rockets at the Staples Center.
Houston has been off since Saturday’s 99-95 loss at New Orleans as a 2½-point road underdog. The Rockets have been experiencing consistency issues lately, splitting their last six games (2-4 ATS), and they’re 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road during this stretch with the one victory coming at lowly New Jersey. The offense has been the main issue over the past six games, averaging just 96.8 points and reaching triple digits just once.
After a pair of shaky home wins and non-covers over the Kings and Warriors, Los Angeles destroyed the Mavericks 131-96 as a 6½-point home favorite on Sunday, ending a 1-5 ATS funk. Seven players scored in double figures, as the Lakers posted their first double-digit home win since Dec. 11, a span of five contests. L.A. is putting up 115.8 ppg over its last five games, but prior to shutting down Dallas on Sunday, Phil Jackson’s squad had given up more than 100 points in six straight games (109.5 ppg).
On their way to the NBA title last year, the Lakers struggled to put away Houston, needing seven games to win the second-round series (4-3 ATS). The Rockets got a tiny measure of revenge on Nov. 15 when they went to Staples Center and rolled 101-91 as a nine-point underdog. Despite that upset, Houston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Hollywood, and the host has cashed in five of the last six battles (playoffs included).
Houston’s 0-4 ATS slide on the road is offset by positive ATS streaks of 5-1 against Western Conference foes, 9-3-1 after getting two days of rest, 35-16 after a SU defeat and 40-17 after a non-cover. L.A. is in pointspread ruts of 4-9 overall, 1-5 at home, 0-5 on Tuesday, 2-5 after one day of rest, 2-6 against Western Conference foes and 1-4 after a SU victory.
The Rockets carry “under” trends of 5-1 overall, 4-0 on the road and 25-11 after a non-cover, and five of the Lakers’ last six games against winning opponents have stayed low. However, the over for L.A. is on stretches of 5-0 overall, 4-1 at home and 6-0 versus Western Conference foes. Finally, the under is 5-1 both in the last six meetings between these teams overall and the last six clashes in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
