Service Plays Tuesday 09/29/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA DUNKEL


Indiana at Phoenix
The Mercury look to take advantage of an Indiana team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road games. Phoenix is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29

Game 601-602: Indiana at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 111.058; Phoenix 119.251
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 8; 172
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 175
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4 1/2); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA LONG SHEET

Tuesday, September 29

INDIANA (26 - 13) at PHOENIX (27 - 13) - 9/29/2009, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 66-99 ATS (-42.9 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
INDIANA is 20-42 ATS (-26.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
INDIANA is 73-103 ATS (-40.3 Units) in road games since 1997.
INDIANA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against Western conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 41-66 ATS (-31.6 Units) in road games after a division game since 1997.
INDIANA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games since 1997.
PHOENIX is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 28-17 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 128-90 ATS (+29.0 Units) in home games since 1997.
PHOENIX is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) in August or September games since 1997.
PHOENIX is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) after a division game this season.
PHOENIX is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 4-2 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 3-3 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Florida (83-74) at Atlanta (86-70)

The Braves, who are trying to track down Colorado in the race for the N.L. wild card, go after their eighth straight win when they trot out Tim Hudson (2-1, 3.41 ERA) against Marlins ace Josh Johnson (15-5, 3.12) at Turner Field.

Jair Jurrjens and two relievers combined on a five-hit shutout last night as the Braves defeated Florida 4-0, keeping their postseason hopes alive while all but eliminating the Marlins from playoff contention. Atlanta is now on a 15-2 run (5-2 at home), but still trails the Rockies by two games in the wild-card race. Bobby Cox’s club is on additional surges of 13-1 as a favorite, 13-0 against right-handed starters and 19-7 in the second game of a series.

Florida is just 5-6 in its last 11 games, a slump that has dropped the team 5 ½ games out in the wild-card standings. The Marlins are otherwise on positive streaks of 7-4 on the road, 11-6 in N.L. East play, 5-1 as an underdog, 6-2 on Tuesday and 7-0 in the second game of a series.

The season series between these rivals is now knotted 8-8, and the road team has won nine of the 16 contests. However, dating back several years, Florida is in a 17-36 rut at Turner Field (4-3 this year).

Johnson missed was scratched from Sunday’s start against the Mets because of the flu, but is expected to go tonight. In his last start a week ago tonight, Johnson surrendered four runs in five innings of a 9-3 home loss to the Phillies. It was just the fourth time in 31 starts this season that the right-hander has allowed more than three runs in a game, and he’s given up more than four runs just once all year. Johnson has pitched more than five innings just once in four September outings.

The Marlins have alternated wins and losses in Johnson’s last eight trips to the mound, but behind the 6-foot-7 Minnesota native, they’re still on runs of 33-13 overall, 5-2 on the road, 19-7 against divisional foes and 20-7 against winning teams. He’s 8-2 with a 3.60 ERA in 15 starts on the highway and 4-2 with a 2.81 ERA in 11 appearances (10 starts) versus Atlanta (1-1, 4.26 ERA in two games this season), including 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA in four starts at Turner Field.

Hudson missed the first five months of the season while recovering from elbow surgery, and in five starts since his return, he’s given up two runs or less three times. On Wednesday, the right-hander surrendered two runs on nine hits in six innings en route to 5-2 victory at the Mets. The Braves have alternated wins and losses in Hudson’s five starts, losing both at home, where the former Cy Young winner is 0-1 with a 2.50 ERA.

Atlanta is 4-1 in Hudson’s last five starts against divisional rivals, 8-3 in his last 11 outings on Tuesday and 10-3 in his last 13 against the Marlins. For his career, Hudson is 8-2 with a 2.68 ERA in 14 starts against Florida, including a 4-3 victory in his 2009 debut on Sept. 1, when he gave up two runs in 5 1/3 innings in South Beach.

The under is 6-0-1 in Florida’s last six road games and 6-1 in its last seven on Tuesday, but with Johnson working, the “over” is on runs of 9-4-1 overall, 8-3-1 on the road and 21-8-3 against divisional rivals. Meanwhile, the over is 4-2 in Atlanta’s last six at home and 6-2 in Hudson’s last eight outings against Florida (3-0 at home), but otherwise the Braves are on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall and 5-0 on Tuesday.

Finally, the under is 6-2-1 in the last nine Marlins-Braves clashes at Turner Field.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota (81-74) at Detroit (83-72)

After the opener of their critical four-game series was rained out Monday, the Tigers and Twins are now slated to play a day-night doubleheader at Comerica Park. Minnesota’s Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.23 ERA) is scheduled to oppose Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.14) in the first game, with Tigers ace Justin Verlander (17-9, 3.41 ERA) matching up against rookie Brian Duensing (5-1, 3.33) in the nightcap.

Minnesota saw its five-game winning skid halted by the Royals’ Zack Greinke on Sunday, but the Twins kept pace with the Tigers, who fell 8-4 at the White Sox. Detroit leads the division by two games with each squad having seven games remaining.

The Twins have used an 11-2 surge to climb back into the playoff race. They’re on additional runs of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog, 20-7 on Tuesday and 16-5 in A.L. Central battles. Meanwhile, Detroit has lost 11 of its last 19 to allow the Twins back in the race, though Jim Leyland’s squad is 33-15 in its last 48 home games.

The Twins are 9-5 against Detroit this season, with the host taking 10 of the 14 meetings.

Blackburn is coming off consecutive easy wins over the Indians (7-3 at home) and White Sox (7-0 on the road), giving up a total of two runs on 16 hits with no walks allowed in 13 1/3 innings (1.35 ERA). The right-hander had gone 1-7 with a 7.36 ERA in his previous 11 starts. In fact, behind Blackburn, the Twins are in funks of 4-9 overall, 7-20 on the highway, 4-12 as an underdog, 5-12 versus winning teams and 0-12 on the road against winning clubs.

Porcello is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three trips to the mound, including Wednesday’s 11-3 rout at Cleveland, with the right-hander allowing a run in five innings. With Porcello hurling, Detroit is on positive runs of 17-8 overall, 5-0 at home, 14-5 as a favorite and 6-1 as a home chalk.

Blackburn is 4-7 with a 4.07 ERA in 16 road efforts this year and 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA in six lifetime appearances (five starts) against the Tigers (1-1, 5.11 ERA in two starts this season). Porcello is 8-3 with a 4.07 ERA in 14 starts at Comerica this season (11 of which the Tigers have won), and the rookie has faced the Twins three times, going 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA.

Duensing has been a surprising factor in Minnesota’s resurgence, as he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in all eight of his starts, including giving up one or zero runs four times. He’s 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last three trips to the mound, including a 3-0 home victory over the Tigers on Sept. 18, when the left-hander scattered four hits and a walk over 6 1/3 scoreless innings. Minnesota is 6-2 in Duensing’s eight starts, including 4-1 versus divisional rivals. He’s pitched on the road three times, going 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA.

Verlander dominated the Indians on Thursday, allowing two runs in seven innings while striking out 11, and the Tigers held on for a 6-5 victory. Prior to that solid outing, the All-Star right-hander had given up five runs each to the Blue Jays and Twins, with those 10 runs surrendered over 14 1/3 innings. Verlander has been sensational at home this year, going 8-2 with a 2.62 ERA in 14 starts, 11 of which the Tigers have won.

Behind Verlander, Detroit is on surges of 5-2 overall, 41-20 at home and 4-1 on Tuesday. However, they’ve lost seven of Verlander’s last nine starts to the Twins, including four of five when hosting Minnesota at Comerica Park. He’s 4-6 with a 4.26 ERA in 13 lifetime starts against the Twins (0-2, 5.29 ERA in three starts this season, with Detroit losing all three).

With Blackburn starting, the Twins are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 15-5-1 on the road, 20-7-1 against the A.L. Central and 4-0 when facing the Tigers. Meanwhile, the under is 7-2-1 in Porcello’s last 10 when opening a series and 8-3 in his last 11 versus divisional rivals.

The under is 4-1-1 in Duensing’s last six starts and 7-0 in Verlander’s last seven Tuesday outings, but the over is 3-0-1 in Verlander’s last five starts against the Tigers.

As a team, Minnesota is on “under” surges of 19-6-4 overall, 6-2-2 as an underdog and 5-0-1 versus opponents with a winning record, though the Twins have topped the total in four of five on the road (all within the division). Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 4-1 overall (all against the A.L. Central), 6-1 at home, 10-2-1 as a chalk and 7-2-2 on Tuesday.

Finally, the over is 3-1-1 in the last five series meetings at Comerica Park.

ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 1): UNDER

ATS ADVANTAGE (GAME 2): DETROIT AND UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports
328 - 222 run 59 % on free selections

TUES Tigers game w/ Verlander

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Nationals Monday night.

Today it's the Mets. The surplus is 1,135 sirignanos

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hondo

Hondo was rained out with the Twins and blown out with the Angels last night, which sent the debt to sky rocketing to 1,480 olivas.

Today, in the Detroit double-dip, he's counting on Blackburn to come up big for Minny in the opener and Zoolander to pose problems for the Twins in the nightcap. Ten units apiece. Also, 10 on the Rangers to give the Angels some hell.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe wiz Bonus Play

ariz/sf under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Cardinals
Tigers(RL)(GM#2)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JuiceManSports 9/29

MilwBrewers/ColoRockies OVER 9 to 9.5 2 units

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

FantasySportsGametime

Tuesday MLB Plays

MLB Baseball


25* Play Tampa Bay (-200) over Baltimore (MLB PLAY)

Baltimore has lost 11 consecutive games and they have also lost 38 of the last 49 games when playing in the month of September. Baltimore has lost 27 of the last 33 road games vs. division opponents and Jeremy Guthrie has lost 21 of the last 28 games vs. division opponents.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


25* Play Seattle (-200) over Oakland (MLB PLAY)



Seattle has won 10 of the last 13 home games coming off two or more losses and they have also won 5 of the last 6 home games vs. Oakland. Felix Hernandez has won 23 of the last 31 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is also 3-0 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 1.50.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Benjamin lee Eckstein

Ben lee had Np on Monday.

For Tuesday "Mr Chalk" likes 2 of the chalkest games on the board.

Cubs-$240/Pirates and the Mariners-$220/A's.

"Mr Chalk" is 81-67 -$2990 for the MLB season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL

Arizona at San Francisco
The Giants look to take advantage of an Arizona team that is 1-9 in Doug Davis' last 10 road starts against teams with a winning record. San Francisco is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140)

Game 951-952: Houston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Lopez) 13.731; Philadelphia (Happ) 15.531
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-275); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-275); Over

Game 953-954: NY Mets at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.412; Washington (Martin) 13.976
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Under

Game 955-956: Florida at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 13.899; Atlanta (Hudson) 16.440
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 957-958: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 15.102; Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.099
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+125); Over

Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Hart) 14.598; Cubs (Dempster) 15.770
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-245); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-245); N/A

Game 961-962: Milwaukee at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Narveson) 15.482; Colorado (Marquis) 14.898
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+165); Under

Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.416; San Diego (Ramos) 14.843
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 965-966: Arizona at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 15.099; San Francisco (Sanchez) 16.387
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Over

Game 967-968: Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 12.815; Tampa Bay (Davis) 14.888
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-210); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-210); Over

Game 969-970: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Duensing) 16.025; Detroit (Verlander) 15.353
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+150); Under

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Torres) 14.416; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.675
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-125); Under

Game 973-974: Kansas City at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Lerew) 15.068; NY Yankees (Burnett) 17.449
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-250); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-250); Over

Game 975-976: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.725; Boston (Buchholz) 16.278
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 977-978: Texas at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 15.965; LA Angels (Kazmir) 15.189
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 979-980: Oakland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.467; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.934
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Seattle (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-200); Under

Game 981-982: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.329; Detroit (Porcello) 16.049
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

 

[Henryjames]

igz1 sports

Tuesday Card
Monday Recap: 2-0 MLB
0-1 NFL
16-4 Last 18 in the MLB
ALL Free picks are actual picks on my daily card !

MLB
3* Under 7.5 (-120) Oakland (Cahill) vs Seattle (Hernandez)

MLB Card Updated

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Malinsky 9/29

Los Angeles Dodgers (Billingsley)-155 over SAN DIEGO PADRES (Ramos)

3* #963 L.A. DODGERS over SAN DIEGO

We believe we saw a ?buy signal? from Chad Billingsley in his last outing. So on a night in which the markets are significantly down-grading him we are in play in a favorable price range, especially as the Dodger team behind him takes that cold bucket of water that was dumped on them at Pittsburgh yesterday and regains their focus to not only clinch the N.L. West tonight, but also to move a step closer to the home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Here is why the markets do not value Billingsley ? a 9-4/3.38 at the All Star break has fallen to a 3-6/5.40 since then. The Dodgers were so concerned that they took him out of the rotation for a turn, and let him try to work the kinks out in the bullpen, while also hoping that some time off would refresh his arm. It did, but apparently not many have noticed. While he will go into the books as having allowed three runs in six innings in his return to the rotation at Washington last week, which can elicit yawns, take a look at his stuff that night ? he needed only 87 pitches to work those six frames, his best PPI in over a month, with 52 of them finding the strike zone. He allowed only one hit while striking out nine, and seven of the nine contact outs came on the ground. But that three-run homer by Ryan Zimmerman overshadows all of that, and there is not all that wrong with giving up a dinger to a guy that has hit 32 of them, and has driven in 102 runs. Now we will look for the form of Billingsley to get even better, which means trouble for a Padre lineup that is nothing special, especially with all key Dodger bullpen arms rested and ready. Cesar Ramos does not bring much to the table for the Padres. He pitched at three different levels before getting called up for this audition, and we do not see the pop to survive as a Major League starter ? in working to a 5-6/3.99 at AAA he only recorded 45 strikeouts, while allowing 84 hits. Now he gets his first start after three relief appearances, all of them less than 40 pitches, and that can mean more pressure than a non-prospect is able to deal with. And with the San Diego team momentum dissipating at Arizona over the weekend, there is not much resistance vs. an opponent that brings the better starting pitcher, better bullpen and arguably the better player at seven of the eight positions on the field.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Black Widow

6* Widow Wiseguy N.L. Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -118(spbook)
(List Pineiro and Bailey)

The St. Louis Cardinals are a great play Tuesday as just a small favorite to beat the lowly Cincinnati Reds. The Cardinals still have home-field advantage on their minds and a lot to play for. St. Louis will hand the ball to Joel Pineiro (15-11, 3.24 ERA), who looks to follow up an outstanding start against another NL Central also-ran. The right-hander pitched seven innings of one-run ball to defeat Houston 11-2 last Tuesday. Pineiro, who gave up one run over seven innings for the second time in three outings, has pitched well in his career against Cincinnati, going 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA in six starts. Reds' starter Homer Bailey has struggled badly against St. Louis, going 0-3 with a 9.82 ERA in four career starts. The Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 games following an off day, 10-1 in Pineiros last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, 8-1 in Pineiros last 9 road starts and 5-0 in Pineiros last 5 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Reds are 1-8 in Baileys last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. That's a 40-5 (89%) Angle in favor of the Cardinals behind Pineiro Tuesday. Take St. Louis on the Money Line.

 

[Mr.Maxx]

0.5-Unit Play. Take #982 Detroit (-130) over Minnesota (Noon, Tuesday, Sept. 29)
1-Unit Play. Take #970 Detroit (-165) over Minnesota (7 p.m., Tuesday, Sept. 29)
Note: ONLY PLAY THIS GAME 2 SELECTION IF WE LOSE IN GAME 1.

0.5-Unit Play. Take #967 Baltimore (+180) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Tuesday, Sept. 29)

Today's Totals
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Texas at L.A. Angels (10 p.m., Tuesday, Sept. 29)

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 N.Y. Mets at Washington (7 p.m., Tuesday, Sept. 29)

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7 p.m., Tuesday, Sept. 29)

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Toronto at Boston (7 p.m., Tuesday, Sept. 29)


That's it for today. I think I will have my Game of the Week tomorrow in MLB as my lone play. Ferringo

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mr. A's

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009 7:05 PM EST.
Kansas City Royals (64-93) at New York Yankees (101-56)
(R) Anthony Lerew (0-1) vs. (R) A.J. Burnett (12-9)
Oddsmakers: New York as a -240 home favorite with the total listed at 9½ 'over'.

New York Yankees -240

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009 10:10 PM EST.
Oakland Athletics (75-81) at Seattle Mariners (80-76)
(R) Trevor Cahill (10-12) vs. (R) Felix Hernandez (17-5)
Oddsmakers: Seattle as a -210 home favorite with the total listed at 7½ 'over'.

Seattle Mariners-210

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Computer Picks

Detroit Tigers -120 (7:05 pm)
St. Louis Cardinals -130
San Francisco Giants -125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Ferrall

MLB FREE PICKS FOR TUESDAY
PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


Oakland (Cahill)

SEATTLE (HERNANDEZ) -205 (1)


Minnesota (Duensing)

DETROIT (VERLANDER) -165 (2)


Houston (Lopez)

PHILADELPHIA (HAPP) -290 (3)


Run Totals

Toronto / Boston UNDER

Kansas City / Yankees UNDER 10

White Sox / Cleveland OVER 9 ½

Mets / Washington UNDER 9