Wunderdog 11/08/2009
Game: Detroit at Boston (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Boston -125 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 4)
Game: Washington at Atlanta (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Atlanta -180 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2.2)
Game: Washington at Atlanta (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta -1.5 runs +110 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)
Game: San Diego at Milwaukee (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Diego +1.5 runs -170 (runline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)
Game: Pittsburgh at Colorado (8:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 10 +100 (risk 3 to win 3)
Game: Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Angels (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Angels +110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)
Game: Detroit at Boston (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Boston -125 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 4)
The Sox rebounded nicely at home last night with a much-needed win over the Tigers. The Tigers have played great at home, but have really struggled on the road where they are now 7-19 in their last 26 on the road. The Red Sox are simply a different team at Fenway where they are now 101-46 in their last 147 as a home favorite. The Tigers’ road woes are nothing compared to what they have experienced coming to Boston. The Tigers have found Fenway to be a chamber of horrors as they are 6-20 in their last 26 games played here. This one belongs to the Red Sox, and I'll go with them here on the moneyline.
Game: Washington at Atlanta (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Atlanta -180 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 2.2)
The Washington Nationals have won eight straight games, but the last six have come at home. For the season, they remain a dreadful proposition on the road where they are 14-39. They have been an even worse, if it is even imaginable, against righthand pitching on the road, where they are just 12-53 in their last 65, or a .185 winning percentage. Expand that out to a full 162-game season, and it results in a 30-132 mark. Regardless of the last eight games, this one takes on its own stats. The Braves have gotten dividends, and a boost to their rotation from Tommy Hansen who has pitched to a 3.22 ERA and the Braves are 4-1 with him on the hill, including wins over Boston and New York. I'm going with the Braves here.
Game: Washington at Atlanta (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta -1.5 runs +110 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)
It could be easy to get seduced into playing the Nats here on their eight-game winning streak, but they hit the road in their worst possible situation. They face a top pitcher and he is right handed. That has spelled a 12-53 mark for the Nats over their last 65 against righthand pitching. That simply translates to value on the runline here, and will also go with the Braves on the runline.
Game: San Diego at Milwaukee (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on San Diego +1.5 runs -170 (runline) (risk 3 to win 1.8)
The Milwaukee Brewers surprised everyone after the losses of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, to be holding down 1st place in the NL Central for awhile. They have reverted back to what many thought they'd be - a pretender. They have been just 18-27 since mid June, and with four of those 18 wins coming by a single run they are just 14-31 to a would be -1.5 runline. Braden Looper has not aided the cause with an ERA on the season hovering around five. The Padres will feature one of their newest members with Clayton Richard on the mound who is over from the White Sox. Richard has worked to a 1.98 ERA over his last four starts, good enough to hold the Padres at least close here, so I'll back San Diego on the runline.
Game: Pittsburgh at Colorado (8:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 10 +100 (risk 3 to win 3)
The Pirates have been one of the worst road teams in baseball for years, and this year is no exception as they enter here with a 17-39 mark on the season. Russ Olendorf has pitched well and the Pirates are 6-3 to the UNDER in his road starts. The Pirates have also been shutout in five of their last 15 games, so the offense has gone south. The Pirates are also 36-15-1 to the UNDER when facing an opponent who allowed five runs or more in their previous game, and with Olendorf on the mound in that same situation, they are 7-0-1 to the UNDER. Colorado likewise, has been a big UNDER team after allowing five or more in their previous game at 13-5 to the UNDER. I like this one to go UNDER the total.
Game: Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Angels (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angeles Angels +110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.3)
After a lot of early failures, mainly do to an injury depleted pitching staff, and their best player out of the lineup, the Angels have risen steadily to now hold the third-best record in baseball. And they are still under the radar. They have been especially lethal against lefthand pitching, where they own a 24-11 mark. This isn't something new, as a year ago they went 29-18 to bring their two-year total against the port-siders to 53-29. While the Rays are vastly different the last two seasons, the biggest area it has shown up in is at home where they are 98-45, but has not translated on the road where they are just a less-than-average team at 68-78. When they are favored on the road they are an even worse 12-28. The Angels have been riding momentum as they are now 27-9 in their last 36 off a win, good enough to make them the choice here as a very live dog.
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