Malinsky
6* #963 COLORADO/SAN DIEGO Under
Last week we turned a 4* ticket on an Under involving Aaron Cook
against the Padres, noting that he was pitching much better
than what the base-line statistics were showing, and he responded by
carrying a one-hitter through six innings. We did not get the money
that day because the bullpens were awful, and Cook also relaxed a bit
with a big lead (he gave up three runs in the 7th after being staked
to a 7-0 advantage). But all that means is a chance to come right
back with the same concept here, particularly with last night?s
unusual Petco result helping to set us up with great value.
What was different about this ballpark in last night?s 15-run
outburst? Nothing, really. There were only 15 hits in the game, and
the host Padres got the almost impossible production count of six
runs out of four hits and three walks (run that through your
simulators and see how often it comes up). These are two lineups
filled with holes galore, and for San Diego there is a particular
concern about Brian Giles ? a .153 average through 98 at-bats, with
only three extra base hits, is ominous for a guy that has already
celebrated his 38th birthday.
That leaves it up to Cook, Jonathan Geer and the bullpens tonight,
and they bring plenty of confidence. Even with last week?s sparkling
showing Cook only brings a 1-1/7.11 to the table, but that does not
measure his abilities at all. He found a flaw in his delivery after
struggling with control against the Dodgers, and that correction
paved the way for shutting down the Padres (his own words - "I
knew once I fixed the mechanical part, things would come back to
where they need to be. Just breaking down my mechanics a little bit
and fixing that one little thing made a huge difference. If I just
keep doing that, I'll be a lot more consistent and give our team a
chance to win some more games."). Now he takes the mound with a
serious confidence level, having worked to a 10-2/2.28 in his last 13
starts against San Diego, including a 5-1/1.69 from this mound.
Meanwhile Geer is another of those pitchers that brings little sex
appeal because he does not make the radar guns light up, but he
throws strikes and gets a lot of ground balls, which makes him
particularly effective in Petco. And like Cook, his Pitching Form
numbers do not reflect how solid he has been. He has had two starts,
on the road against tough Dodger and Phillie lineups, and worked to a
3.46 tune, not walking a single batter over 13 innings, and with 29
of the 39 batters he retired coming by either a strikeout or ground
ball out. But he had an awkward relief outing that takes his overall
allowance to 5.25, not being physically or mentally prepared to enter
a game early vs. Pittsburgh when Shawn Hill was injured. That game
carries more weight than it should, and further helps us to get this
value.
None of the key relievers for either team carry a fatigue rating for
this one, which makes it easier to step to a high rating.<!-- / message -->